Rosenthal: 11 Current Players on the HOF Bubble

[percyhoward]

His legacy will be that he's a really good regular season QB.

So far, his legacy has been that of a great player with a weak supporting cast. When you look at Dallas' playoff passer rating differential of -8.8 since 2006, don't associate that with Romo. The guys who are still playing and who have won multiple Super Bowls did it with defenses that would have made a 20-25 point swing in that differential, had they been Romo's defense.

If that sounds like a foreign language, just consider what a 20-25 point swing in PRD really means. In 2015 it was the difference between a 12-win team (Patriots +14.90) and a 6-win team (Miami -8.54).

Playoff Performance of Quarterback
Brees 305 of 464 3535 yd 24 td 6 int 100.4
Rodgers 298 of 467 3454 yd 24 td 8 int 98.2
Romo 114 of 185 1318 yd 8 td 2 int 93.0
Brady 738 of 1183 7957 yd 56 td 28 int 88.0
Rivers 164 of 272 2165 yd 11 td 9 int 85.2
Rthlsbrgr 321 of 522 4052 yd 22 td 19 int 84.6

Playoff Performance of Defense
Rivers' defenses 206 of 340 2184 yd 13 td 13 int 76.2
Brady's defenses 646 of 1122 7303 yd 43 td 38 int 77.7
Rthlsbrgr's defenses 334 of 580 4075 yd 24 td 15 int 82.4
Rodgers' defenses 262 of 438 3441 yd 25 td 18 int 86.6
Brees' defenses 238 of 388 2823 yd 18 td 7 int 91.5
Romo's defenses 117 of 194 1582 yd 14 td 4 int 101.8

Romo's Playoff Passer Rating Differential with...
his own defense -8.8
Brees' defenses +1.5
Rodgers' defenses +6.4
Rthlsbrgr's defenses +10.6
Brady's defenses +15.3
Rivers' defenses +16.8

 

[DFWJC]

There are 6 QBs from the Super Bowl era that were elected to the Hall of Fame despite not winning a championship. Since these players got in based on stats I wanted to see which stats were most important to the voters.

Sonny Jurgensen
Led league in Passing yards 5x, TDs 2x, Passer Rating 1x. (Note the Passer Rating stat was invented in 1971. Sonny led before it was invented.)
At retirement he ranked #4 in Yards, #3 in TDs and #2 in Passer Rating.
When elected to the Hall in 1983 he ranked #6 in Yards, #3 in TDs and #6 in Passer Rating.
Jurgensen never started a playoff game.

Fran Tarkenton
Led league in Passing yards 1x, TDs 1x, Passer Rating 0x.
At retirement #1 in Yards, #1 in TDs and #7 in Passer Rating.
When elected #1 in Yards, #1 in TDs and #16 in Passer Rating.


Dan Fouts
Led league in Passing yards 4x, TDs 2x, Passer Rating 0x.
At retirement #2 in Yards, #4 in TDs and #9 in Passer Rating.
When elected #2 in Yards, #6 in TDs and #13 in Passer Rating.

Jim Kelly
Led league in Passing yards 0x, TDs 1x, Passer Rating 1x.
At retirement #8 in Yards, #11 in TDs and #5 in Passer Rating.
When elected #11 in Yards, #11 in TDs and #5 in Passer Rating.

Dan Marino
Led league in Passing yards 5x, TDs 3x, Passer Rating 1x.
At retirement #1 in Yards, #1 in TDs and #6 in Passer Rating.
When elected #1 in Yards, #1 in TDs and #12 in Passer Rating.

Warren Moon
Led league in Passing yards 2x, TDs 0x, Passer Rating 0x.
At retirement #3 in Yards, #4 in TDs and #25 in Passer Rating.
When elected #4 in Yards, #5 in TDs and #38 in Passer Rating.

Obviously there's been a great deal of turnover among the voters in the 16 years since they elected Moon so the people now may have different standards for putting QBs in based on stats. The only QB that ranked higher in Passer Rating than Yards when elected is Kelly whose USFL stats are not included.

I'd also note that Ken Anderson led the league in passer rating 4 times and is not in the HOF and hasn't got much consideration.

Other than Jurgenson, most of those guys had multiple SB appearances or playoff runs.

I do think passer rating gets more credit now, but if one can combine that with yards as well, all the better.
I think 5000 yards and a 97 rating trumps 3500 yards and a 99 rating, for example.

 

[percyhoward]

I think 5000 yards and a 97 rating trumps 3500 yards and a 99 rating, for example.

390 of 618 63.1% 5000 yd 8.1 ypa 36 td 16 int 97.0
272 of 431 63.1% 3500 yd 8.1 ypa 26 td 10 int 99.0

 

[GIFTS86]

390 of 618 63.1% 5000 yd 8.1 ypa 36 td 16 int 97.0
272 of 431 63.1% 3500 yd 8.1 ypa 26 td 10 int 99.0

I been following this thread for awhile. It's been really Insightful.

 

[KJJ]

Stafford's career passer rating was 83.6 (nothing more than average) during the years that he had Johnson.

Yards don't win games. These are 2015 numbers for the league.

OFFENSE
Top 10 QB -- Passing Yards
7.8 wins

Top 10 QB -- Passer Rating
10.2 wins

DEFENSE
Top 10 -- Passing Yards Allowed
8.3 wins

Top 10 -- Passer Rating Allowed
11.0 wins

You just wasted your time, you're just looking to discuss passer ratings as usual. I've always said yards don't win games. I pointed out that Megatron was one of the main reasons Stafford had a 5000 yard season in 2011. No need to respond back with more stats.

 

[fortdick]

Romo led the league in passing in 2014.

I hate it when people bring facts into the discussion! It skews the agendas all out of whack. Stick to the hype, not the facts!

 

[DFWJC]

390 of 618 63.1% 5000 yd 8.1 ypa 36 td 16 int 97.0
272 of 431 63.1% 3500 yd 8.1 ypa 26 td 10 int 99.0

Those are two really nice seasons.
I'd take option 1, with a staggering 1500 more yards yet still 20 more TDs than INTs
But it'd be a matter of preference

 

[JDSmith]

Those are two really nice seasons.
I'd take option 1, with a staggering 1500 more yards yet still 20 more TDs than INTs
But it'd be a matter of preference

I think that we'd win more games as a team with the second option. If we are throwing the ball 39 times a game we're not imposing our will as much as if we are only throwing 27 times a game.

 

[ActualCowboysFan]

You just wasted your time, you're just looking to discuss passer ratings as usual. I've always said yards don't win games. I pointed out that Megatron was one of the main reasons Stafford had a 5000 yard season in 2011. No need to respond back with more stats.

What a pretty flag. Do you have any in colors other than white?

 

[DFWJC]

I think that we'd win more games as a team with the second option. If we are throwing the ball 39 times a game we're not imposing our will as much as if we are only throwing 27 times a game.

Maybe so, especially with a team that also has a run game. Like Dallas.

This was just answering the very narrow question of which QB had the better individual season for a hypothetical team.
I think I agree that if we are talking specifically Romo this year in Dallas, throwing less would be better with our potential run game.

 

[KJJ]

What a pretty flag. Do you have any in colors other than white?

Another one of Percy's lapdogs. Shouldn't you be shopping for back to school clothes?

 

[percyhoward]

Those are two really nice seasons.
I'd take option 1, with a staggering 1500 more yards yet still 20 more TDs than INTs
But it'd be a matter of preference

He only has the 1500 extra yards because of 187 extra attempts. Their YPA is the same (8.1). The 3500-yd QB has a better TD:INT ratio, which is why his rating is higher.

390 of 618 63.1% 5000 yd 8.1 ypa 36 td 16 int 97.0 2.3 td:int
272 of 431 63.1% 3500 yd 8.1 ypa 26 td 10 int 99.0 2.6 td:int

His team was probably playing with more leads than the 5000-yd guy. If you gave him a slightly worse defense and running game, for example, he may still be gaining yards at the same rate, but would be facing more two-high safeties, and playing catch up more often, so it wouldn't be surprising if his TD:INT ratio went down to the level of the other guy's while his attempts and yards went up.

Or maybe the 5000-yd guy responds to his extra attempts by getting more conservative (more check downs, throwaways, and sacks), and his YPA and comp % suffer as a result, while TD:INT stays the same. It would have the same effect on his rating either way.

378 of 605 62.5% 4800 yd 7.9 ypa 34 td 13 int 97.0 2.6 td:int
272 of 431 63.1% 3500 yd 8.1 ypa 26 td 10 int 99.0 2.6 td:int

They could easily just be the same QB in different circumstances, with that 3500-yd performance usually winning more games.

Passing yards: Only 3 of the top 10 QB had a winning record last year. If you're passing more, it's often because you're losing.
Passer Rating: 8 of the top 10 had a winning record. Pass more efficiently than the other team and you generally win.

 

[cowboyblue22]

with out more playoff wins and a superbowl win I don't think tony stands a chance for the HOF danny white took the cowboys to three conference championships and he is never mentioned the problem tony has had is that the teams around him have not been very good if he would of played on those 70's teams or the 90's teams he would of won more than one superbowl. ware could never win one in dallas because the teams around him were not very good when he went to a team with really good players he won one.

 

[Bullflop]

Romo will always be a bigtime winner in my estimation, whether his career includes a Hall of Fame induction or not.

 

[CanadianCowboysFan]

That could say a bunch of things though. IT could say that they don't have anyone to replace him or even spell him. It could say that the offense could be the problem. It could say a bunch of things. Like if any other top 10 QB was here would they be able to run this offense?

It says mostly that Romo is the offence and that Garrett is incapable of coaching them up when Romo is not there

 

[CanadianCowboysFan]

with out more playoff wins and a superbowl win I don't think tony stands a chance for the HOF danny white took the cowboys to three conference championships and he is never mentioned the problem tony has had is that the teams around him have not been very good if he would of played on those 70's teams or the 90's teams he would of won more than one superbowl. ware could never win one in dallas because the teams around him were not very good when he went to a team with really good players he won one.

Romo is >>>>> White

 

[KJJ]

Romo is >>>>> White

That's been said by many but Romo is better than Danny White. White inherited his starting job while Romo had to earn his the hard way as an undrafted free agent. White ended up being benched while Romo hasn't come close to being benched in the 10 years he's had the job. Romo has held the starting job almost twice as long as Danny White.

Although White won more playoff games and got the Cowboys farther in the playoffs than Romo, he had better more complete teams that were better coached. Romo never had a team with the defenses White had and Romo never had Tom Landry as his head coach. White never had to carry the Cowboys like Romo has.

 

[KJJ]

Romo will only be seen as Danny White in playoff terms if the Cowboys never win a championship with him. The only thing that links Danny White with Tony Romo is zero championships.

 

[jterrell]

Romo, like all QBs are going to get judged by whether or not he wins the Super Bowl.
If he does the rest of his numbers will easily usher him in.
If not he may well be looking at some far distant invite.

Danny White only started 92 games. His INT to TD ratio was about 1.15 to 1.
Romo has 127 starts and a TD to INT ratio of better than 2 to 1.

Those aren't numbers that rely upon insane passing of today such as passing yards or passing TDs where he blows White out of the water totally.

Romo will likely hold every major Cowboys passing record when he retires.
His Win/Loss percentage is quite fine.
He just hasn't had good enough teams or luck to win it all.
Dallas beat the Giants twice then lost on flukey crap in the playoffs. That was a team good enough to win it all.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

Romo is the better QB but Danny White is more accomplished. That's just the way it's going to be until Romo gets to a SB.