Senior Bowl Weigh Ins

[stilltheguru]

I've seen his tape. But there have been other WRs that look good on tape that take a year or two in the NFL to find their footing.

For poops and giggles, I went back and looked at the last 5 years worth of 2nd round rookies (since Dell appears to be a target in the 2nd round). There were 29 WRs taken in the 2nd round over the last 5 years (30 really but Metchie had cancer so I took him out).

Of the 29 WRs, only 13 had more catches as a rookie compared to what Gallup had last year in a down year coming off injury. 15 of 29 had more yards as rookies than Gallup had last year. Only 9 had more TDs as rookies than Gallup had last year.

So at best, roughly 50% of these guys had rookie seasons that were better than Gallup's down season in 2022. But I suspect Gallup will be better as he would not be the first player than needed more than a year to come back from a knee injury. If you look at the previous year when he got hurt, if you project out what his season may have looked like, it was 62 catches, for 791 yards and 4 TDs. Using those numbers, the number of 2nd round rookies who matched that in their first year falls to - only 2 had as many catches, only 5 had more yards and 9 had more TDs. Out of 29.

So no, it's not "likely" that a rookie like Dell outperforms Gallup as a rookie. Possible? Sure. But history indicates that it's not likely. Unless, of course, one thinks Gallup is now shot and his knee will never come back.

PS - I don't think Gallup is "that good". But I think he's a pretty decent #2, if healthy. Granted, healthy is a big if.

Most need a year or two if they don't have a superpower. Dell has one.

 

[Sydla]

Most need a year or two if they don't have a superpower. Dell has one.

Actually those that did better as rookies than Gallup last tended to just be bigger/stronger than Dell. In those that had more catches as rookies than Gallup had last year:

C Watson was 6-4, 208
G Pickens was 6-3, 195
A Pierce was 6-3, 211
T Higgins was 6-4, 216
M Pittman was 6-4, 223
L Shenault was 6-1, 227
C Claypool was 6-4, 232
D Samuel was 5-11, 214
AJ Brown was 6-0, 226
C Sutton was 6-3, 218
C Kirk was 5-11, 201

The only two who came close to Dell's size at 5-8, 163 were these two:

E Moore 5-9, 184
R Moore, 5-8, 180

So from that, it seems size, both height and weight, were the big factors here, not speed.

 

[stilltheguru]

Actually those that did better as rookies than Gallup last tended to just be bigger/stronger than Dell. In those that had more catches as rookies than Gallup had last year:

C Watson was 6-4, 208
G Pickens was 6-3, 195
A Pierce was 6-3, 211
T Higgins was 6-4, 216
M Pittman was 6-4, 223
L Shenault was 6-1, 227
C Claypool was 6-4, 232
D Samuel was 5-11, 214
AJ Brown was 6-0, 226
C Sutton was 6-3, 218
C Kirk was 5-11, 201

The only two who came close to Dell's size at 5-8, 163 were these two:

E Moore 5-9, 184
R Moore, 5-8, 180

So from that, it seems size, both height and weight, were the big factors here, not speed.

neither Moore have a superpower. I'm done discussing it. Just remember this convo come October. Dell has ELITE start stop/change if direction for separation

 

[Sydla]

neither Moore have a superpower. I'm done discussing it. Just remember this convo come October. Dell has ELITE start stop/change if direction for separation

I can only look at actual facts, not just guesses.

It's unlikely that Dell would supplant Gallup on the depth chart based on a simple analysis of recent draft picks. Production from a comparison set indicates it's, at best, a 50-50 proposition that a rookie could outperform what Gallup did last year coming off an injury (and also missing games) and then when you factor in physical traits, size was the one trait that seemed most recurring in those that did perform well as rookies.

 

[stilltheguru]

I can only look at actual facts, not just guesses.

It's unlikely that Dell would supplant Gallup on the depth chart based on a simple analysis of recent draft picks. Production from a comparison set indicates it's, at best, a 50-50 proposition that a rookie could outperform what Gallup did last year coming off an injury (and also missing games) and then when you factor in physical traits, size was the one trait that seemed most recurring in those that did perform well as rookies.

I'm not guessing. I just told you what the tape shows. And when it happens next year it'll only be a surprise to you. Not me

 

[cnuball21]

I can only look at actual facts, not just guesses.

It's unlikely that Dell would supplant Gallup on the depth chart based on a simple analysis of recent draft picks. Production from a comparison set indicates it's, at best, a 50-50 proposition that a rookie could outperform what Gallup did last year coming off an injury (and also missing games) and then when you factor in physical traits, size was the one trait that seemed most recurring in those that did perform well as rookies.

I think Lockett is a fairly good comp that is close in size. He had a great rookie year.

Production is partially dependent on opportunity, team and scheme.

 

[Sydla]

I'm not guessing. I just told you what the tape shows. And when it happens next year it'll only be a surprise to you. Not me

LOL, the entire draft is a guess.

I mean are you saying that there have never been any players with great college tape that did nothing in the NFL?

 

[stilltheguru]

LOL, the entire draft is a guess.

I mean are you saying that there have never been any players with great college tape that did nothing in the NFL?

I'm telling you when you have a super power in college you have that super power in the NFL. He's jaylen waddle that's 10 pounds lighter with much better change of direction. That's just what it is

 

[Sydla]

I'm telling you when you have a super power in college you have that super power in the NFL. He's jaylen waddle that's 10 pounds lighter with much better change of direction. That's just what it is

And yet Waddle was deemed a first round talent and Dell right now is probably anywhere from a late 2nd to 4th rounder is you look at the draft guides.

And let's be clear. I am not saying he's a bad prospect or overrated or we shouldn't draft him. We could use his speed (or frankly anyone's speed at WR). But every year we tend to overvalue these guys thinking they will make an impact sooner and often they don't. I suspect Dell is a guy who can fill a specialized need but if you are thinking he can come in as a rookie and catch 50 balls, 6-7 TDs, I think that might be asking a lot.

 

[cnuball21]

And yet Waddle was deemed a first round talent and Dell right now is probably anywhere from a late 2nd to 4th rounder is you look at the draft guides.

And let's be clear. I am not saying he's a bad prospect or overrated or we shouldn't draft him. We could use his speed (or frankly anyone's speed at WR). But every year we tend to overvalue these guys thinking they will make an impact sooner and often they don't. I suspect Dell is a guy who can fill a specialized need but if you are thinking he can come in as a rookie and catch 50 balls, 6-7 TDs, I think that might be asking a lot.

He ain’t Waddle IMO…Waddle was a little bigger and throttled the SEC so he was a bonafide 1st rounder.

That being said - if the Cowboys ended up drafting Tank and actually used him correctly and manufacturer touches I think 500+ yards and 4/5 TDs as a rookie isn’t crazy. That’s about what Lockett and Renfroe had who are both smaller dudes.

I know where you’re coming from. A lot of fans do always seem to get overly excited about draft picks thinking they can fix things in year 1 when it’s usually not the norm. I just think out WRs are so bad it won’t take much for a rookie to come in and win a job:

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

He ain’t Waddle IMO…Waddle was a little bigger and throttled the SEC so he was a bonafide 1st rounder.

That being said - if the Cowboys ended up drafting Tank and actually used him correctly and manufacturer touches I think 500+ yards and 4/5 TDs as a rookie isn’t crazy. That’s about what Lockett and Renfroe had who are both smaller dudes.

I know where you’re coming from. A lot of fans do always seem to get overly excited about draft picks thinking they can fix things in year 1 when it’s usually not the norm. I just think out WRs are so bad it won’t take much for a rookie to come in and win a job:

What are talking about man? Dell apparently has a “superpower,” smh.

 

[stilltheguru]

What are talking about man? Dell apparently has a “superpower,” smh.

Passive aggressive womanly traits lol.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

Passive aggressive womanly traits lol.

You talking about saying another man has “superpowers?”

Your panties drop when you watch Tank clips?

 

[tm1119]

The game starts soon, 2:30ET…hopefully we get to talk about that instead of this weird bickering

 

[stilltheguru]

You talking about saying another man has “superpowers?”

Your panties drop when you watch Tank clips?

Not only a female but a 12 year old one. Damn

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

Passive aggressive womanly traits lol.

You talking about saying another man has “superpowers?”

Your panties drop when you watch Tank clips

Not only a female but a 12 year old one. Damn

“Here’s my scouting report guuuuuuuuys…he has suuuuperpowers!!!!”

 

[stilltheguru]

You talking about saying another man has “superpowers?”

Your panties drop when you watch Tank clips



“Here’s my scouting report guuuuuuuuys…he has suuuuperpowers!!!!”

when you're the only one laughing at your jokes............surprised you can even post. You came up for air from Risen Star?

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

when you're the only one laughing at your jokes............surprised you can even post. You came up for air from Risen Star?

“Buh, he has sssssuuuuperpowerzzzz!!!”

 

[tm1119]

Apparently not…

 

[Ekspozed]

You talking about saying another man has “superpowers?”

Your panties drop when you watch Tank clips?

Mine do