…..and there are many that look good rookie year, pre-season, year 2 or 3....and out the league by the 4th year.
Not that many.....fractional compared to QB's with good rookie seasons that go on to impressive careers.
Let's take a look at Dak's fellow successful rookies, shall we? First let's set the criteria for successful rookie season.
Their team won 10+ games that season.....because that's what "successful" is, isn't it?
They scored well in their passer rating ,meaning that they were indeed a contributor to their team's success.
They were healthy all season long,meaning that they started every game......you cannot credit another QB for the team's success.
I think we should also look at 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives to further determine their impact on that winning season.
So this is the entire list of QB's since 1990, 30 years, that started all their rookie games, 300+ pass attempts, 10+ wins, ranked by passer rating.
1 Dak Prescott
2 Russell Wilson
3 Matt Ryan
4 Joe Flacco
5 Andrew Luck
One thing we might notice is that the list is small. Successful rookie quarterbacks are an extreme rarity. Typically, good ones will have a moderately impressive passer rating but with very little winning. These are the QB's in their rookie season whose team had two digit wins, while they ranked high in QB stats that season without detrimenting their team with an injury and missed playing time.
A 2nd thing you will notice is that Dak isn't just "in" the group, he actually leads it.
A 3rd thing is that we can all recognize these names and quickly conclude that none of them were "unsuccessful" later in their careers. Also, Only Dak And Wilson were not 1st round picks.
A 4th thing, most importantly, 3 of these 5 went on to play in the Super Bowl, a good sign for Dak since these are the QB's most similar to Dak's circumstances.
We can quickly conclude that QB's with the same level of Dak's productivity under the same parameters go on to long and very successful careers.