Sturm Debunks Dak and Dunk

[Clove]

No more than you do with Aaron Rodgers. While Dak is a good runner, he is not a huge threat, he is not one that defenses key on like Russel Wilson or Kapernick IMO so I don't think Defenses scheme Dak as a runner at the goal line personally. He may have a slight more tendancy to run a bootleg but by very little.

It's hard to scheme a guy when you have no clue what's going to happen. This is why I said that Dak's a nightmare down inside the 5. He could hand it off, he could throw to Dez, he could roll out and throw to Beasley, he could run it.

 

[erod]

The problem is simple... he is not Tony Romo. Their are Romo fans who are upset because they wanted to see him win a super bowl and now Dak came and took his job from him. So these fans need to find all the faults they can with Dak to make him look bad.

No, that's not it.

Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Rex Grossman, Chris Chandler, Colin Kaepernick, Tony Eason.....

Lots of QBs have been on winning teams that even went to the Super Bowl, but that doesn't make them the reason.

 

[aikemirv]

Even if he does, whats so bad about methodically dissecting a defense instead of throwing it into triple coverage like Romo has done for ten years? This is exactly how Brady plays, and he is considered the greatest qb ever by most people.

This kind of post right here is why there is so much crap being spewed on this board. People can't say a good thing about one QB without trashing the other. People need to grow up and shut up and this place would be better and we would not need a QB zone!

The fact is that Romo is nowhere close to that type of player and his standings in NFL history show that his TD to Int ratio and his int % as a total of passes is very, very good!

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Your right you will sit on the fence and should they get to the SB hey your all in. I am not I have no control over the game I have no say I am a fan. I can back this team 100% or I can sit on the fence. I don't need some one to hold my hand, if Dallas does not make it, then hell it was a great ride this season one that started off with people predicting this as a 8-8 team at best yet managed to clinch the playoff early and are sitting in a position to have #1 seed this weekend. If they do make it then I would rather say I backed them the whole way than say well I was so unsure that I did not want to have any expectations about them. As you said we are different people

Huh? I'm talking in terms of cause and effect and the game as it is played on the field.

For example, if a team has large DT they can limit cutback opportunities for our RB and impede our ability to score because Dak doesn't throw it downfield and struggles in the red zone throwing the ball.

Another example is if teams have corners that can press and S with range then Dak can struggle to move the ball. It takes away his quick reads and tightens the windows in the intermediate field that he normally exploits.

I break things down and evaluate. You feign certainty about wholistic outcomes. You expect things in terms of how that will make you feel.

Like I said we don't think the same and your ability to anticipate my approach is lacking.

 

[Clarkson]

Who cares when there are multiple possessions?

I can evaluate his passing performance. You can insist on considering his runs but several of those runs have been by design. The recent QB draw was certainly a designed run. You just shoehorn them all in there anyway and call it a day.

If you really want to do that then you need to evaluate that for him. You also need to consider what every other QB has accomplished running the ball. I bet Kaepernick for example has some running TDs as well for example. Then look. Instead you are just trying to paint your pet cat in the best possible light.

Then you just go back to affirming your biases for the second half of the post. The Dolphins are a winning team likely to make the playoffs, the Bills score 25 ppg yet you dismiss them out of hand. Incredulousness is not an argument.

We aren't talking about teams here. We're talking about QBs. The Dolphins are a solid all-around team. What does that have to do with what was being discussed, though? You posted red zone QB rating stats to try and say Prescott hinders us in the red zone, or that he isn't good in the red zone. If he hinders us in the red zone, how are we 4th in red zone TD%?

I'm not sure what your point is anymore, but you're clearly missing mine. You posted those meaningless numbers to try and make some point about Dak because the Cowboys sit middle of the pack in red zone QB rating. Never mind that you need a whole lot more context/data than just that, but I took it at face value and gave you the Browns, San Francisco, and Minnesota cases. You dismissed them. Why? Am I supposed to believe Ryan Tannehill is better in the red zone than Tom Brady, just because his red zone QB rating is higher? Am I supposed to believe the Browns QBs are better than Prescott, Wilson, and Stafford in the red zone because they have a higher QB rating? I'd bet if you ran the appropriate tests, there wouldn't be a significant difference between #1 and #14.

My batting average point had nothing to do with the significance of a hit and of a touchdown. It was merely pointing out how a handful of plays can drastically change stats like that. Those QB rating stats could change drastically by next week. I'd bet there's a lot of change in that stat week-to-week. It also doesn't appear to correlate too strongly with red zone TD% (again, if the appropriate tests were run...).

Your red zone QB rating stat is meaningless by itself. Show correlations. Show additional data/context. Most of them don't support your weak argument.

 

[JJHLH1]

Dak isnt a dink and dunker nor a bus driver.

The 2nd Washington game, Pittsburgh game, Ravens game, and Philly game show he is capable of putting the team on his back when needed and making clutch throws.

Who cares if he isnt throwing for 3Tds a game. Troy didnt throw for 3TDs routinely and he got us 3 rings

Exactly. A bus driver or dink-and-dunker doesn't lead his team to five 4th quarter comebacks in his first 14 games, another NFL record. Dak is clutch.

 

[Fletch]

The problem is simple... he is not Tony Romo. Their are Romo fans who are upset because they wanted to see him win a super bowl and now Dak came and took his job from him. So these fans need to find all the faults they can with Dak to make him look bad.

I was one of the biggest Romo supporters around, dang near to a fault. Then I saw something the Cowboys have never seen, a rookie leading this team like none other. I still love and respect Tony, and if Tony somehow gets in there, I will back him 8-fold. But this is Dak's team now, and in the future. Period!

 

[Doomsday101]

Huh? I'm talking in terms of cause and effect and the game as it is played on the field.

For example, if a team has large DT they can limit cutback opportunities for our RB and impede our ability to score because Dak doesn't throw it downfield and struggles in the red zone throwing the ball.

Another example is if teams have corners that can press and S with range then Dak can struggle to move the ball. It takes away his quick reads and tightens the windows in the intermediate field that he normally exploits.

I break things down and evaluate. You feign certainty about wholistic outcomes. You expect things in terms of how that will make you feel.

Like I said we don't think the same and your ability to anticipate my approach is lacking.

How does he struggle in the redzone Dallas is highly ranked in the redzone. Dak has faced top defenses this season and has done well. I do maintain as fans and that is what we are fans we have no say in who is on the roster, who we draft what plays are called we have no control fans have only an emotional investment in the team, we get no money, we get no rings we either get satisfaction or disappointment.

Dak has thrown down field and has hit some plays does he do it often no but he still has managed to move this team down the field and put them in scoring position as a 4th overall in points scored should be prove to any reasonable person. Can he get better? I think he can but even as a rookie he is performing at a high level if he wasn't this team would not be winning. Of course Zeke is a big part of that the Oline is a part of that as well as defense as of late but so has Dak who has made many critical plays to help this team win.

 

[Fletch]

Didn't you used to be a massive Romo homer?

I was. Many an argument in his defense. But the past is just that, the past. This is Dak's team, win or lose.

 

[percyhoward]

That's data. The original Tweet didn't have relevant data.

I wasn't arguing that he was a dunk and dunker - only that the data you cited were flawed

Which they were. But Bob's got the gist now.

You're welcome Bob.

 

[Plankton]

You do realize is ypa.......yards per attempt which means how far the ball went before it was caught. Has nothing to do with how many yards total after the catch

No, yards per attempt is how many yards were gained per attempt. An 83 yard gain that traveled two yards in the air is the same as an 83 yard gain that went 65 yards in the air.

 

[Kevinicus]

This makes zero sense! We aren't talking about top players. We are talking about a guy who basically has missed two years and didn't even play well when he did. So what are you going on that he is an improvement when he can't take one hit? Love the guy but you're making up a scenario

What makes zero sense is your inconsistent logic. I am not making up anything, I'm applying your flawed logic. Don't get upset when I show how silly it is. You however are making things up.

 

[Kevinicus]

Understand great. It's complaining when you haven't had a sample size in two years

This is beyond ridiculous. Buy a dictionary. Or just google these terms you don't understand.

 

[JJHLH1]

Perhaps I was not clear Bob, I did not say that there isn't any utility in the ability itself. Of course there is. I am saying when evaluating QBs, to me it is irrelevant to say, Drew Brees has 34 TDs, well Dak has 20 TDs but he has 6 rushing TDs, so he has 26 TDs. The Saints do not care that Drew Brees can't go and get a one yard QB TD draw on 1st down. They have running backs for that. Meanwhile, I do very much care that Dak can't throw the ball into coverage with zero help from a running game like Brees can. There is much utility in Brees passing TDs and very little in Dak's rushing TDs. I was not making any kind of reference to moving the chains on third down or anything like that. Plenty of value there.

I'll bet the Saints do care that Brees has 14 INT's and Prescott only has 4.

And Sturm is correct that you seem to be undervaluing the ability of a QB to rush for TD's or 3rd down conversions. Many if not most of Dak's rushing scores and conversions weren't planned but he saw an opening and took it. That's certainly an added benefit for a team and a big difference from merely handing the ball off to a RB. It puts considerably more pressure on the defense. Hopefully you can see that.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

I'll bet the Saints do care that Brees has 14 INT's and Prescott only has 4.

And Sturm is correct that you seem to be undervaluing the ability of a QB to rush for TD's or 3rd down conversions. Many if not most of Dak's rushing scores and conversions weren't planned but he saw an opening and took it. That's certainly an added benefit for a team and a big difference from merely handing the ball off to a RB. It puts considerably more pressure on the defense. Hopefully you can see that.

Brees has 14 interceptions because he has no running game and no defense and has to throw under the worst of conditions. Heck I read today that in the six WINS the Saints have, the Saints defense is giving up an average of 30 points per game, which would be an NFL record. In the WINS. That's the bar that Brees has to clear just to get a win.
Dak has 4 interceptions because he is a dink and dunk bus driver who never has to take a chance, so he doesn't. Please don't embarrass yourself by trying to compare the burden of Brees to the easiest job in sports.

 

[JJHLH1]

I feel like Dallas fans can't put anything Dak is doing into proper context. Like, rookies just don't play like he does. I don't mean stats so much as just how he handles game situations. If you watch what Dak's doing at this stage of his career and aren't impressed I'm sort of just at a loss at this point. Rookies just don't execute pro style schemes in real time from like game 2 onward, regardless of how favorable the situation around them is. It's uncommon, it's downright special, but half the fan base is mad that we're not getting 2007 vintage Brady-to-Moss bombs 24/7.

And Dallas isn't using some unsustainable air raid gadget scheme like Chip Kelly in 2013 did with Foles, or Shanahan did with RG3 in 2012 having him run 120 times. They just dropped Dak into a pro style system and made him figure it out.

No, he doesn't see the field like Brady does, but Brady himself didn't do that in 2000-2001. But what Brady always had, and what Dak shows signs of, is the fine-tuned sense of how much risk to take on any given snap. That's an un-glamorous but unbelievably rare and valuable skill.

I wish I could give this 10 likes.

 

[ufcrules1]

No, that's not it.

Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Rex Grossman, Chris Chandler, Colin Kaepernick, Tony Eason.....

Lots of QBs have been on winning teams that even went to the Super Bowl, but that doesn't make them the reason.

Oh, so the team that couldn't win a game without Romo last year is now 12-2 with Dak and it is because the team is carrying Dak? Is that right?

 

[DallasCowboys2080]

I feel like Dallas fans can't put anything Dak is doing into proper context. Like, rookies just don't play like he does. I don't mean stats so much as just how he handles game situations. If you watch what Dak's doing at this stage of his career and aren't impressed I'm sort of just at a loss at this point. Rookies just don't execute pro style schemes in real time from like game 2 onward, regardless of how favorable the situation around them is. It's uncommon, it's downright special, but half the fan base is mad that we're not getting 2007 vintage Brady-to-Moss bombs 24/7.

And Dallas isn't using some unsustainable air raid gadget scheme like Chip Kelly in 2013 did with Foles, or Shanahan did with RG3 in 2012 having him run 120 times. They just dropped Dak into a pro style system and made him figure it out.

No, he doesn't see the field like Brady does, but Brady himself didn't do that in 2000-2001. But what Brady always had, and what Dak shows signs of, is the fine-tuned sense of how much risk to take on any given snap. That's an un-glamorous but unbelievably rare and valuable skill.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

We aren't talking about teams here. We're talking about QBs. The Dolphins are a solid all-around team. What does that have to do with what was being discussed, though? You posted red zone QB rating stats to try and say Prescott hinders us in the red zone, or that he isn't good in the red zone. If he hinders us in the red zone, how are we 4th in red zone TD%?

I'm not sure what your point is anymore, but you're clearly missing mine. You posted those meaningless numbers to try and make some point about Dak because the Cowboys sit middle of the pack in red zone QB rating. Never mind that you need a whole lot more context/data than just that, but I took it at face value and gave you the Browns, San Francisco, and Minnesota cases. You dismissed them. Why? Am I supposed to believe Ryan Tannehill is better in the red zone than Tom Brady, just because his red zone QB rating is higher? Am I supposed to believe the Browns QBs are better than Prescott, Wilson, and Stafford in the red zone because they have a higher QB rating? I'd bet if you ran the appropriate tests, there wouldn't be a significant difference between #1 and #14.

My batting average point had nothing to do with the significance of a hit and of a touchdown. It was merely pointing out how a handful of plays can drastically change stats like that. Those QB rating stats could change drastically by next week. I'd bet there's a lot of change in that stat week-to-week. It also doesn't appear to correlate too strongly with red zone TD% (again, if the appropriate tests were run...).

Your red zone QB rating stat is meaningless by itself. Show correlations. Show additional data/context. Most of them don't support your weak argument.

Speak for yourself and I hardly talk about the RZ effectiveness in a vacuum. IT relates to our difficulty to score. You are the one fixating.

My argument has been that if you can stop our running game from scoring as several teams have done then we will struggle to score. Your insistence that we can run the ball anyway despite recent history just seems obtuse to me.

The stats that I showed were team aggregate. Brady did not play all 14 games this season. The Patriots have unquestionably been poorer overall than the Dolphins once you consider total performance.

I bet that you don't even have a notion of what a 'proper test' is to evaluate. If you want to quibble with how they come up with passer rating then have at it. I'm not going to waste my time.

I also don't care what you intended to mean by your batting average comment. BA is a poor predictor to begin with and you are completely oblivious to the notion of variance and distribution.

If there is one thing that sabermetrics has taught us, the statistics are not completely random and are extremely predictive. If you want to make a case about the sample size of what is now almost a complete cycle or the randomness in RZ performance then have at it. What you have done so far is a bunch of self assuming nonsense. I won't be holding my breath.

Regardless of randomness or not to this point Dak has performed middling in the RZ relative to the rest of the league despite throwing only 1 pick. It has impacted our ability to score.

 

[erod]

Oh, so the team that couldn't win a game without Romo last year is now 12-2 with Dak and it is because the team is carrying Dak? Is that right?

You mean the team that had Joseph Randle at running back?

And I would not dare compare the grit and poise of our young QB to the vomit-wrenching cowardice of Weeden and Cassel.