Sturm Q&A on the QB Situation

[Alexander]

Can anyone tell me why these mocks have us NOT taking a QB in the first???????????

Because that messes things up.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Can anyone tell me why these mocks have us NOT taking a QB in the first???????????

I think it's because after Goff, there is (at the moment) no consensus top-10 QB.

So then you're left drafting a guy who doesn't represent good value at #4 and may not have what it takes to be a franchise QB.

It's like this, just because you draft a QB at #4 doesn't make him a good QB prospect.

 

[Alexander]

I think it's because after Goff, there is (at the moment) no consensus top-10 QB.

So then you're left drafting a guy who doesn't represent good value at #4 and may not have what it takes to be a franchise QB.

It's like this, just because you draft a QB at #4 doesn't make him a good QB prospect.

The correct answer is none of these mocks is going to drill down to the core needs of this team.

All of the pundits do it the same way.

There are "needs" and they rank them and then they start throwing picks at need.

Few pundits look at the salary cap.

Few bother to realize hey, they might take that RB because their current guy's contract is up or too much.

Mock drafts are fun, but there is a reason they are always so very wrong.

 

[gmoney112]

The correct answer is none of these mocks is going to drill down to the core needs of this team.

All of the pundits do it the same way.

There are "needs" and they rank them and then they start throwing picks at need.

Few pundits look at the salary cap.

Few bother to realize hey, they might take that RB because their current guy's contract is up or too much.

Mock drafts are fun, but there is a reason they are always so very wrong.

Haha yeah. Pretty much. I think the demand for "content" has greatly reduced the amount of significant thought applied to the process, in an arena where "thought" wasn't in abundance at the offset.

You can actually get a better feel for what's going to happen by just reading CZ and using some deductive reasoning than you'll get in mainstream mock drafts.

This off-season, in particular, is impossible to judge right now if you take into account the cap. It's actually an entertaining puzzle to try and piece together with all the variables.

I just hope we maximize our cap signing proven commodities, even if they aren't necessarily "in their prime". If they can make us better, bring them in, period. Obviously don't pay out some enormous contracts for mediocre talent, but some 30 year olds can still actually contribute. I know it's hard to believe. Look at Arizona. Then draft BPA, (a QB is forgivable if he's not absolute BPA-). It's not complicated.

 

[BrassCowboy]

I think it's because after Goff, there is (at the moment) no consensus top-10 QB.

So then you're left drafting a guy who doesn't represent good value at #4 and may not have what it takes to be a franchise QB.

It's like this, just because you draft a QB at #4 doesn't make him a good QB prospect.

Well there is obviously Paxton Lynch. Believe what you want but some have him better than Goff. Opinions. Either way both these guys could be had at #4 and no looking back. Drafting THE GUY will always be a risk, but cant be doing the whole vinny testaverde/drew bledsoe/quincy carter/the other no name qb bandwagon anymore.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Can anyone tell me why these mocks have us NOT taking a QB in the first???????????

Apparently some folks didn't watch the season.

Jerry has said that this year 'seared into his brain" how important the QB position is and Stephen has said that he rates the biggest needs on the team as QB #1 and front seven players #2.

So you basically have the two most influential people in the organization both saying QB position is not only the most important position on the team, but is the team's biggest need this offseason.

 

[KB1122]

This isn't a JFB vote, but the idea that quarterbacks all have to stay home every night in the offseason and watch game tape is way overrated.

 

[Tusan_Homichi]

This isn't a JFB vote, but the idea that quarterbacks all have to stay home every night in the offseason and watch game tape is way overrated.

While true, there's a big difference between having a life and having zero self control. The guy has already been in and out of rehab and against the wishes of his team, keeps somehow finding himself regularly attending drunken parties. Hell, he's even wearing disguises now.

The dude is so far off the reservation that there's no way you touch him I don't think.

 

[percyhoward]

This video is exactly why Brandon Weeden should've never been replaced with Matt Cassel. Weeden's strength is throwing deep, so the Cowboys should've gotten him a deep threat when he replaced Romo. Why the Cowboys had Weeden throwing short passes is beyond me; the guy has a rocket arm. Here he throws with pinpoint accuracy to Josh Gordon, 60 yards of it in the air!

Great throw. He's murder on clay pigeons, too. Here's why you want Weeden throwing short passes...

Weeden's career numbers on all targets of more than 10 yards:
119 of 291 2156 yd 19 td 20 int 60.2

And the shorter targets (10 yards or less):
440 of 674 4307 yd 12 td 10 int 82.9

 

[pancakeman]

Great throw. He's murder on clay pigeons, too. Here's why you want Weeden throwing short passes...

Weeden's career numbers on all targets of more than 10 yards:
119 of 291 2156 yd 19 td 20 int 60.2

And the shorter targets (10 yards or less):
440 of 674 4307 yd 12 td 10 int 82.9

How does that compare to league averages?

 

[GoJacks]

Big Ben came from a D1/FBS school which is light years different than D2/FCS.

I would argue that the conference NDSU plays in has a higher level of competition tush the MAC did.

 

[TwoDeep3]

Paxton Lynch - seems this guy at 245 could put on 12 pounds of muscle and carry it well. Like Sturm said, he is accurate but needs to be coached up some on some passes. Like they all do.

Rocket launcher is what describes him.

After redshirting his first year at Memphis in 2012, Lynch was named the Tigers' starting quarterback prior to the 2013 season. He started all 12 games, completing 203 of 349 passes for 2,056 yards, nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions. As a sophomore in 2014, Lynch started all 13 games. He completed 259 of 413 attempts for 3,031 yards, 22 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also rushed for 321 yards and 13 touchdowns.[6][7] Lynch was named the MVP of the 2014 Miami Beach Bowl after passing for 306 yards with four passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns.[8] As a junior in 2015, Lynch again started all 13 games. He completed 296 of 443 passes for 3,778 yards, 28 touchdowns and four interceptions. In Memphis' 63–0 victory over SMU, Lynch tied an FBS record with seven passing touchdowns in a half. He finished 9 of 14 for 222 yards, and completed his touchdown throws to seven different receivers

I like this guy

 

[ghst187]

The problem with RGIII is that we already know he sucks as a QB. He cannot play QB the way we would ask him to. Manziel I think has a lot of talent and potential but who knows if he'll ever grow up. I'm hoping all the hoopla over these castoffs is just smoke. I'd actually prefer to take a QB in round 1 (unless we could get Wentz in rd 2) and keep Moore as #2/3 depending on how the rookie develops. We already know the problem isn't as much at QB as it is HC/OC. Pitt and Denver won games without their starters. Our backup QB couldn't win a game with us but then went to Houston (HOUSTON!) and won 2. So the only way a BACKUP QB solves our problem and JJ can reasonably expect to win games with a backup QB is if that backup QB is Tom Brady, Drew Brees, or Aaron Rodgers. A starting quality QB costs you about $20 mill per season, do you really want to come close to doubling that and eating close to a third of your cap space on 1 position and its backup? Its just not reasonable. Drafting a QB is the only real answer if you want the team to have a chance at success longterm and you pay coaches big $$ to scout and develop talent, if they do a terrible job then you suffer for years, just the gamble of the game. Getting a great backup QB is a band-aid solution. If you lose Romo again for extended periods do you REALLY expect to be competitive in the playoffs with ANY backup QB in this league? Almost no team has a starting quality backup or else they'd be starting somewhere. If you want to keep Dallas competitive in the event Romo gets hurt, get a stud RB, a better #2 WR, get Dunbar and Dez back healthy, and get a HC that can better manage games and adjust his game planning. This is the only real answer. Heck, Bill Parcells took us to the playoffs with Quincy Carter at QB and Troy Hambrick at RB. There's not a starting QB in the NFL this season as HORRIBLE at QC was and neither is there currently a starting RB as bad at Hambrick was in his prime. Yet amazingly, BP led us to the playoffs with a solid defense, outstanding game management, and play-calling management...and in a division that was probably better than it was this season. Why can't Garrett win 5 games with 7 pro-bowlers on his roster and 3 different backup QBs that are exponentially more talented than QC ever was?
For these reasons, my offseason plan would be to upgrade the secondary significantly in FA. I would also consider Lamar Miller at RB if the price was right. I forget about Manziel or RGIII and keep Moore around with the expectations of getting a rookie in the first two rounds.
I sit tight at 4 and hope one of Goff or Lynch falls to us and then run to the podium if one of them do. If not, I trade back for Elliott and go hard after Wentz either later in the first or early 2nd. I go after a good WR in the first three rounds and add a LB and DB or two in the middle rounds.

 

[percyhoward]

How does that compare to league averages?

Not well. The parameters for target distance had to be tweaked (from 10 yards to 15 yards) for PFR's play finder. "NFL" = league averages over Weeden's career.

< 15 yd targets / 15+ yd targets (diff)
NFL 90.6 / 82.9 (-7.7)
Weeden 79.1 / 66.9 (-12.2)

Weeden not only isn't very good, he especially isn't very good throwing intermediate-to-deep passes.

 

[DandyDon52]

Wentz. is the one with brains, I would think he might be better due to his smarts.

 

[darthseinfeld]

Not especially fond of Cook.

At best he may be a Ryan Tannehill