Twitter: Super Bowl odds

[MarcusRock]

Bills? Just no. I know they’re talented but they have zero run game and they’ve been playing like crap. After the first 6 weeks or so I thought they were possibly the best team in the league. Now? Not close. Still talented but way too one dimensional.

Hey I get it but go look up Vegas odds and you'll see the Bills up there. Not sure what they're seeing but they have some sort of logic to it unless the term "Bills Mafia" isn't just a fan thing. Lol.

 

[DallasEast]

I don’t get all the Mac Jones love. His arm is average at best. And he can get that deer in headlights look.

I’d be really surprised if they were to get there.

Me too. A rookie quarterback-led Super Bowl team appearance or win is not an impossibility but it would be unquestionably historic. It would definitely be an NFL and Canton, Ohio milestone.

 

[BourbonBalz]

Hey I get it but go look up Vegas odds and you'll see the Bills up there. Not sure what they're seeing but they have some sort of logic to it unless the term "Bills Mafia" isn't just a fan thing. Lol.

I wasn’t criticizing the post. I was criticizing Vegas. I just don’t remotely see the Bills going to the Super Bowl at this point. Then again, the only AFC team I see capable of winning the Super Bowl is Kansas City.

 

[KJJ]

The Packers OLine is a hot mess. There is no way they can protect Rodgers from our front 7. It’s baffling how so many people on this forum are in awe of the Packers. They’re good but certainly beatable.

Our front seven only got to Mike Glennon once last week. It’s pretty obvious why so many on this forum are in awe of the Packers and Aaron Rodgers we’re 0-2 against them in the playoffs. The only win I can remember the Cowboys having against Rodgers was during Dak’s rookie year.

 

[KJJ]

I don’t see how the Cowboys could be ahead of the Bucs and Packers. Those odds are pretty ridiculous in my opinion. Most of the odds don’t have the Cowboys ahead of either team. Don’t see how the Pats could be rated ahead of either one of those teams either.

 

[KJJ]

I don’t get all the Mac Jones love. His arm is average at best. And he can get that deer in headlights look.

I’d be really surprised if they were to get there.

He’s played better than any of the rookie QB’s this season. He led the Pats to 7 straight wins until they lost last week. From what I’ve seen of him he’s look pretty darn good. I would be surprised if they reached the Super Bowl too but you can’t totally rule it out. For a rookie Mac Jones has played very well. New England only won 7 games with Cam Newton last season. Right now Jones is a game manager but his numbers will improve with experience.

 

[JD_KaPow]

I saw a completely different list of odds on tv this morning. All these odds or percentage chances should come with explanations of what the calculations are and who decided those were the calculations.

You can go to FO for a full explanation of their methods.

DVOA doesn't love the Packers because, while they've been consistently good, they haven't had any really strong wins. You can see it in their point differential, which is a lot lower than most of the other contenders. You can also read their explanation here: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-analysis/2021/packers-vs-pythagoras-and-dvoa

I think DVOA is probably underrating the Packers a bit. I think the FO folks think it is too, but they don't adjust their numbers for their perceptions, so there you have it.

 

[JJHLH1]

Indy would be towards the top of the list if Wentz wasn’t their QB.

 

[JD_KaPow]

I don’t see how the Cowboys could be ahead of the Bucs and Packers. Those odds are pretty ridiculous in my opinion. Most of the odds don’t have the Cowboys ahead of either team. Don’t see how the Pats could be rated ahead of either one of those teams either.

The #1 seed is huge and the Chiefs and Patriots have the inside track on it in the AFC, which substantially boosts their chances of getting to the SB. And once you're there, you have a decent chance of winning it. Plus, they see the Titans and whoever wins the AFCN as pretty weak comparatively. So you have the Chiefs and Patriots, both strong teams with a good chance of playing at home in the playoffs, and the other strong AFC teams (e.g. Indy) who will have to play on the road throughout.

There are more contenders for the 1 seed, and more strong division winners in general, in the NFC, which smears out the probabilities of reaching (and therefore winning) the SB. The TB-GB-DAL-ARI-LAR combo probably has better chances of winning the SB than the NE-KC combo, but each individual NFC team has lower odds than the AFC teams do.

 

[KJJ]

The #1 seed is huge and the Chiefs and Patriots have the inside track on it in the AFC, which substantially boosts their chances of getting to the SB. And once you're there, you have a decent chance of winning it. Plus, they see the Titans and whoever wins the AFCN as pretty weak comparatively. So you have the Chiefs and Patriots, both strong teams with a good chance of playing at home in the playoffs, and the other strong AFC teams (e.g. Indy) who will have to play on the road throughout.

There are more contenders for the 1 seed, and more strong division winners in general, in the NFC, which smears out the probabilities of reaching (and therefore winning) the SB.

Being the number one seed has never done the Cowboys any good at least not the last couple of decades. We’ve had two number one seeded teams go one and done. Don’t give me wrong you want to position yourself the best you can in the playoffs but it doesn’t guarantee anything. An extra week off and home-field advantage has never been a huge advantage for the Cowboys. Our last two number one seeded teams looked pretty flat.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Being the number one seed has never done the Cowboys any good at least not the last couple of decades. We’ve had two number one seeded teams go one and done. Don’t give me wrong you want to position yourself the best you can in the playoffs but it doesn’t guarantee anything. An extra week off and home-field advantage has never been a huge advantage for the Cowboys. Our last two number one seeded teams looked pretty flat.

Never said anything about guarantees. But only having to win two games vs. three is inherently going to make your odds of reaching the SB better, no matter what your model.

The more strong teams there are in a conference, the lower the odds of each one winning the SB. In an extreme case, if one conference has one strong team and a bunch of patsies, then that team might have an 80% chance of reaching the SB. Say the other conference has 5 equally strong teams; each one has only a 20% chance of reaching the SB. Even if all 5 of those teams are stronger than the other one, they will each individually have a lower chance of winning the SB.

 

[KJJ]

Never said anything about guarantees. But only having to win two games vs. three is inherently going to make your odds of reaching the SB better, no matter what your model.

It’s a big advantage if you can get past the first playoff game. The Cowboys haven’t gotten past the divisional round in 26 years. Some of the worst games I’ve seen the Cowboys play are after a week off and playing at home. They had 12 days off when they faced the Giants in the 2007 playoffs.

 

[JD_KaPow]

It’s a big advantage if you can get past the first playoff game. The Cowboys haven’t gotten past the divisional round in 26 years. Some of the worst games I’ve seen the Cowboys play are after a week off and playing at home. They had 12 days off when they faced the Giants in the 2007 playoffs.

Sure, but most #1 seeds do. These odds have nothing to do with the Cowboys history. I was talking about why NE has higher odds in the FO model than one might expect, relative to the NFC teams.

DVOA loves the Cowboys, and the Cowboys have basically locked up their division. That's why their odds are so high.

 

[KJJ]

Sure, but most #1 seeds do. These odds have nothing to do with the Cowboys history. I was talking about why NE has higher odds in the FO model than one might expect, relative to the NFC teams.

DVOA loves the Cowboys, and the Cowboys have basically locked up their division. That's why their odds are so high.

The odds never take into account a teams history. I take into account the teams history.

 

[CWR]

The dream is real fellas. Don't fight it, let it wash over you. Imagine the tears rolling down your hairy faces as we reach the pinnacle.

The only question is do I get tattooed now or afterwards?

 

[Fastpitch Dad]

Not that is matters whether they have us rated at 3 or 30, it's nice to see a national outlet think highly of us. I would have put GB above us, but it's meaningless either way. Should be a very interesting year in the NFC as any team that gets in has a chance to get to the Super Bowl. Whoever gets hot, catches a few breaks, stays healthy will be the rep from the NFC. Will be fun to watch.

Of course you can say what I just did about any team in any sport, that wasn't exactly earth-shattering stuff I just wrote looking back at in now.

Never mind, carry on. Nothing to see here. Just a pretty useless post.

 

[JBS]

The odds never take into account a teams history. I take into account the teams history.

This is a stupid way to do it.

 

[KJJ]

This is a stupid way to do it.

Your own teams history can tell you a lot. You look for trends. There’s some troubling trends with the Cowboys. There’s a reason they haven’t won anything in 26 years. I would like to see the formula that was used to come up with these odds.

 

[CWR]

Your own teams history can tell you a lot. You look for trends. There’s some troubling trends with the Cowboys. There’s a reason they haven’t won anything in 26 years. I would like to see the formula that was used to come up with these odds.

Different roster, different coaches. I guess there's something to be said for history, but this isnt the same group with JG, Romo, Witten ect. It's an entirely different make up. Before you say it, yes same owner but I don't believe that matters right now. Love him or hate him we are in position to do something special. Whether or not it happens time will tell.

 

[JBS]

Different roster, different coaches. I guess there's something to be said for history, but this isnt the same group with JG, Romo, Witten ect. It's an entirely different make up. Before you say it, yes same owner but I don't believe that matters right now. Love him or hate him we are in position to do something special. Whether or not it happens time will tell.

Correct. It is beyond stupid.