Takk > Taco or Taco > Takk

[waldoputty]

You were taught to make guesses without real empirical basis?

I am not satisfied because it lacks any empirical basis. It has nothing to do with how I was taught to model systems. I would never ask a layman for such rigor.

no one said making guesses with zero empirical basis.
the one building the model has to make reasonable assumptions.
$5M assumption was not based on zero knowledge.
it was based on my experience with NFL contracts.
you may disagree, but that was the best I could do.
that was based on the players left, what happened in previous years (when the major contracts signed etc.)

as it was, i think the $5M guess was pretty good.
you may remember if you did not like it, i would just increase the assumption.
it is not a big deal because i was looking for a macroscopic effect - not a 5% effect.

you often have no choice but parametrize when modeling could not be done.
then repeat and rinse again if needed.
it is actually a standard 'trick'.

 

[waldoputty]

I don't think he ran the 3-cone. I can't find it anywhere including Bruger's draft guide.

where did you get the 10 yard split result.
the pro day article I found say he reran the 40 and stood on the rest of his numbers from the combine.
the numbers are almost too good to be true.

i searched but only found the 40 yard results.
this is what the article saidE Taco Charlton (6-6, 271) ran the 40-yard dash in 4.83 and 4.85 saeconds (almost a tenth of a second faster than what he ran at the combine), and stood on the rest of his numbers from Indianapolis. He had a very good workout in which he was asked to drop into coverage as a linebacker. He helped himself.

 

[xwalker]

where did you get the 10 yard split result.
the pro day article I found say he reran the 40 and stood on the rest of his numbers from the combine.
the numbers are almost too good to be true.

i searched but only found the 40 yard results.
this is what the article saidE Taco Charlton (6-6, 271) ran the 40-yard dash in 4.83 and 4.85 saeconds (almost a tenth of a second faster than what he ran at the combine), and stood on the rest of his numbers from Indianapolis. He had a very good workout in which he was asked to drop into coverage as a linebacker. He helped himself.

NFLDS and Bruger's draft guide both had numbers for Taco's 10-yard time at his Pro Day.
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=126825&draftyear=2017&genpos=DE

 

[waldoputty]

NFLDS and Bruger's draft guide both had numbers for Taco's 10-yard time at his Pro Day.
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=126825&draftyear=2017&genpos=DE

interesting - one website says he only ran the 40 and depended on combine results for the 10.
the other website says he ran the 10 and had no results for the combine for the 10.

well lets hope your website is correct because he would be a freak of nature.

 

[xwalker]

interesting - one website says he only ran the 40 and depended on combine results for the 10.
the other website says he ran the 10 and had no results for the combine for the 10.

well lets hope your website is correct because he would be a freak of nature.

Bruger's draft guide is not from a free website, so I trust it a little more than even the NFLDS which is usually a great source of info.

 

[waldoputty]

Bruger's draft guide is not from a free website, so I trust it a little more than even the NFLDS which is usually a great source of info.

well if you are right, then the explanation for taco not looking quick on tape is the ankle.
you would think the other teams would know that and drafted him earlier.
he would blow away harris in that case.

actually the 1.63 number would be the same number garrett ran.
and taco is heavier and bigger than garrett by 5 pounds.

 

[DeaconBlues]

i am not the one who wrote the article.
someone else suggested that video stopped etc., not me.
you can go through the thread and see who suggested it either here or in a related thread.

No, you're just the person who believes the article.

 

[waldoputty]

No, you're just the person who believes the article.

it is a blogger who writes a lot at BTB.
i have no reason to doubt him.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

no one said making guesses with zero empirical basis.
the one building the model has to make reasonable assumptions.
$5M assumption was not based on zero knowledge.
it was based on my experience with NFL contracts.
you may disagree, but that was the best I could do.
that was based on the players left, what happened in previous years (when the major contracts signed etc.)

as it was, i think the $5M guess was pretty good.
you may remember if you did not like it, i would just increase the assumption.
it is not a big deal because i was looking for a macroscopic effect - not a 5% effect.

you often have no choice but parametrize when modeling could not be done.
then repeat and rinse again if needed.
it is actually a standard 'trick'.

What experience with NFL contracts?

What information do you have on players signed past week 2 of FA in previous years?

Prove that it was pretty good.

And you did not give parameters. You just made up a number and pretended that was valid. Parameters are derived from samples of actual outcomes not you guessing.

You give assertion after assertion and no proof.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

well if you are right, then the explanation for taco not looking quick on tape is the ankle.
you would think the other teams would know that and drafted him earlier.
he would blow away harris in that case.

actually the 1.63 number would be the same number garrett ran.
and taco is heavier and bigger than garrett by 5 pounds.

No one is arguing that Garrett is not the better prospect. You really like red herrings.

 

[ccb04]

The last two times the Cowboys traded up in the first couple of rounds...they got Lawrence & Claiborne. That could've also had something to do with a reluctance to give up a 3rd rd. pick as well. They could've given up the 3rd though, as they didn't NEED to draft Lewis, as Scandrick usually plays the slot & guys like Awuzie can play there as well. Then it's been said they had offers to move down (not sure how accurate those are), but stayed put & selected Charlton.

As far as the secondary players they let go...personally, I wouldn't have wanted to see them pay what any of those guys received. Claiborne for example, played in just 7 games last season & earned $3 million. The Jets gave him $5 million. I appreciate Carr's durability, etc...but believe he's set to make around $6 million in 2017. They already over-paid for him once. Church got $12 million guranteed & an average annual salary of $6.5 million.

A couple of interesting tidbits from PFF:

- In 2016, Charlton ranked 3rd in pass-rush productivity among all draft eligible defenders with at least 100 pass rush attempts

- Taco had the highest pass-rush productivity on pressures that made it to the QB in less than 2.5 seconds

 

[waldoputty]

What experience with NFL contracts?

What information do you have on players signed past week 2 of FA in previous years?

Prove that it was pretty good.

And you did not give parameters. You just made up a number and pretended that was valid.

You give assertion after assertion and no proof.

Based on my recollection all these years, I recollect most of the big contracts were signed within 2-3 weeks.
You recollect differently.
It seems I was right there.

I thought RFA was included.
You said no.
You were right here.

I looked at the number of players on many of the teams.
Based on their salary structure, it appears that most teams already had most of their costly players.
It seems I was right here.

Sometimes in life you need to work with uncertainty.
From school, I learned to model this way.
I did not create it as I am not smart enough.

This type of modeling was done for econ/psychology type fields where math modeling was done.
I cannot explain how that works to you.
You have to take the class.
This type of 'handwaving' is done because there is often no other choice.
It is incumbent on the model builder to make reasonable assumption.
If you want to complain why $5M, I already offered to you back then I could raise the number.

It turns out the $5M number is pretty good.
Would you not agree?

 

[DeaconBlues]

it is a blogger who writes a lot at BTB.
i have no reason to doubt him.

Everyone who watched the draft feed and Talking Cowboys Break knows for a fact that he invented / lied in that blog.

But this is America. Constitutional right to believe in any lies that one personally agrees with.

 

[dstew60105]

it is a blogger who writes a lot at BTB.
i have no reason to doubt him.

Good lord, you're still at this?

 

[waldoputty]

Everyone who watched the draft feed and Talking Cowboys Break knows for a fact that he invented / lied in that blog.

But this is America. Constitutional right to believe in any lies that one personally agrees with.

I only briefly watched it.
So I will spend watch the whole thing to see for myself.
I dont see why he would have invented it - makes no sense to me.

 

[AsthmaField]

It's taken me six pages worth of arguments to realize I've been trolled. That's the only logical conclusion for the cherry picking of information and stats done by a fairly analytical person. Well played, Waldo.

I figured it out a few pages ago.

 

[waldoputty]

Good lord, you're still at this?

i am not a naturally doubting person who assumes people lying for no real gain.

 

[DeaconBlues]

I only briefly watched it.
So I will spend watch the whole thing to see for myself.
I dont see why he would have invented it - makes no sense to me.

i am not a naturally doubting person who assumes people lying for no real gain.

No, you're a gullible person not interested in determining truth other than what is spoon fed to you.

 

[waldoputty]

No, you're a gullible person not interested in determining truth other than what is spoon fed to you.

i dont understand why you want to attack my trusting nature.
most of us read these articles and dont go around checking their references etc.
with all the fuss, i will watch the video and see for myself.

 

[waldoputty]

No one is arguing that Garrett is not the better prospect. You really like red herrings.

i did not say taco is a better prospect.
no i said he matched garrett in one stat - a pretty important stat.
did i say he matched garrett in cone, shuttle, broad jump etc?