Regardless of guaranteed money left, he counts $15.4 M against their cap this year. If they cut him prior to June 1st it will save them $2.4 M. If they cut him after June 1st it will save them $13 M.
I am no cap expert either, by any wild stretch of the imagination. But I've been watching this situation closely because I think it is going to affect the Cowboys. Whether it is by acquiring him, or as a negotiating point to get a better deal with Murray, it affects the Cowboys.
I don't want him at that price and his age. However, I am not against him coming completely. It is very hard for me to ignore how freaking good this guy is, and behind this line, with a year off and a chip on his shoulder, playing for the team he grew up loving and dreaming of playing for...it could be magical. I can't deny that. He is not my first choice, and probably not my second choice either. The Salary Cap era has jaded me towards huge contracts for RBs. I am probably wrong to think that way, but at least I am honest about my bias.
I do not think Dallas would trade for him. I absolutely can see Minnesota cutting him and us trying to get a hometown deal done.
I don't see how the savings would change for the Vikings. If he's on their roster this year, he will cost them $15.4 million ($2.4 million in bonus plus $13 million in base salary). If they cut him at any point this year, they have to take the $2.4 million dead-money cap hit. There is no way they can avoid that (other than not cutting him) because that money is guaranteed.
Whenever they cut him, they will save $13 million on their salary cap for this year because that is what he's scheduled to make. There is no June 1st saving that I can see because there is no future guaranteed money. He's either on their roster and gets paid $15.4 million or off their roster and the Vikings save $13 million in base salary.
Anyway, I agree with you on price. I'm not in favor of paying that for him and his contract would have to be renegotiated if Dallas did trade for him. The only way I want him at age 30 is if he is a cheaper option than Murray. Age and potential wear and tear have to be considerations.
Again, if Minnesota is open to trading him, I would not be opposed to making a very modest offer (for the same considerations). Joseph Randle, some other nonessential backup, a conditional pick ...
The only issue I have with Dallas waiting to see if he's cut in April is that it puts Dallas in a position where it would have to either bid for Peterson's services among teams that still need a running back, pay more for his services because the only choices at that point would be to pay him or draft a running back, or draft a running back.
If Minnesota chooses to go ahead and release him, it opens up other possibilities, but I don't think the Vikings have any reason to hurry.
I'm also not advocating this as the only way to fill the RB position. I'm all for Murray returning at the right price. I'm less sure of some other choices people have mentioned, such as C.J. Spiller and Mark Ingram. Doesn't mean they wouldn't turn out well if we could get them for the right price, or that Peterson is guaranteed to if we get him for the right price.