Texas Rangers Thread

[Stautner]

I think you have forgotten, its been a couple of pages but I said that Ogando is regarded as a high-ceiling releiver but didn't profile really as a starter due to several issues i mentioned - fastball command, stamina, lack of a third pitch, etc. Those types are best suited to come in guns blazing for an inning or two. Developing useful third and fourth pitches and getting the mental aspect down is the hardest part, there's no "just a matter of" about it. Throwing hard is the easiest part, hard throwers are a dime a dozen.

So in the last week or two Harrison has reverted back to his old self.
Ogando is still doing well, hopefully it will last but I have my doubts.
Holland has regressed as well. But since Holland has that top-prospect pedigree, he'll get a longer look than Harrison will. Honestly I can't wait till we finally stop goofing around and just put feliz in the rotation where he belongs and have Scheppers/Ogando fight it out for the end-game. And have Harrison in the pen, maybe he'll be more successful there.

I agree that "it's just a matter of" is minimiing what it takes, but you act as if all hard throwers who end up having success in the major leagues had command of their fastballs and a full repertoire of pitches from day one. That's simply not the case. People who have 95+ fastballs rely on that until they are forced to learn more, and many of them struggle early in their careers and don't figure out a 3rd pitch until several years in the pros. Look at Koufax. Look at Ryan. Lok at Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. They all went from hard throwers who were inconsistent to being ace pitchers as they gained control of their pitches and learned how to pitch and developed other pitches. That's the norm with hard thrwong pitchers who find success, not an aberration. It seems to me that you are condeming Ogondo by saying pitchers can't do somethng that history has proven they can.

I just think you rely too much on somebody's early career prognosis about players rather than giving players a chance to develop. Again, the entire minor league system is based on the tried and true knowledge that players can and do develop over time, and can and do develop much beyond whatever early prediction was placed on them.

When a player has big time power, but strikes out too much, teams don't give up on him and assume he can't improve his eye and his plate discipline, they try to develop him into a better all around hitter so that the big power can be used in the lineup. Same for a hard throwing pitcher - they don't just assume he can't develop other pitches improve his control and learn to set up batters and move the ball around, they work with him to see how he can develop.

 

[YosemiteSam]

They said Ogando's actively developing his changeup. That would give him a fastball, sliders and a changeup. I just don't think he is throwing it that often right now. He hasn't built up his confidence with it yet. Though I think two starts ago he got two strikeouts with the changeup.

On top of that, Maddux was teaching Ogando a spliter. From what I've heard he has only thrown that spliter to lefties and not to many strikes with it.

 

[YosemiteSam]

I agree that "it's just a matter of" is minimiing what it takes, but you act as if all hard throwers who end up having success in the major leagues had command of their fastballs and a full repertoire of pitches from day one. That's simply not the case. People who have 95+ fastballs rely on that until they are forced to learn more, and many of them struggle early in their careers and don't figure out a 3rd pitch until several years in the pros. Look at Koufax. Look at Ryan. Lok at Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. They all went from hard throwers who were inconsistent to being ace pitchers as they gained control of their pitches and learned how to pitch and developed other pitches. That's the norm with hard thrwong pitchers who find success, not an aberration. It seems to me that you are condeming Ogondo by saying pitchers can't do somethng that history has proven they can.

Another one: Roy Halladay

Roy's third year in the big leagues produce 19 games, 4-7 record and a 10.64 ERA. That was the worst in history for a pitcher that pitched at least 50 innings. It wasn't till Roy's 5th season that he righted the ship to the point that he became a boniface ace going 19-7 with a 2.93 ERA.

Ogando with basically only two pitches over 5 games (31 innings) averaging 6.08 strikeouts per 9 innings a WHIP of 0.86 and a BAA of .171 and an ERA of 2.30, I personally don't see how anyone can condemn him as a future starter right now. Especially since he is actively developing a 3rd and a 4th pitch. As for not having stamina? That is a lame excuse. Ogando is only 27. He is at the peak of his maturity phyically. He can build stamina. He is averaging just short of 7 inning per game now. (6.2)

 

[Stautner]

Another one: Roy Halladay

Roy's third year in the big leagues produce 19 games, 4-7 record and a 10.64 ERA. That was the worst in history for a pitcher that pitched at least 50 innings. It wasn't till Roy's 5th season that he righted the ship to the point that he became a boniface ace going 19-7 with a 2.93 ERA.

Ogando with basically only two pitches over 5 games (31 innings) averaging 6.08 strikeouts per 9 innings a WHIP of 0.86 and a BAA of .171 and an ERA of 2.30, I personally don't see how anyone can condemn him as a future starter right now. Especially since he is actively developing a 3rd and a 4th pitch. As for not having stamina? That is a lame excuse. Ogando is only 27. He is at the peak of his maturity phyically. He can build stamina. He is averaging just short of 7 inning per game now. (6.2)

Bingo. And as for his age, remember that the reason he is just getting to the big leagues isn't because he was slow to develop, it's because he had a problem getting a visa to come to the US, and that's what delayed his development. He has actually only been in the United States about 15 months, and look what he is doing already.

 

[DIAF]

I didn't say you had to be AWESOME your first day in the bigs. Of course all these guys are still developing, but scouts and talent evaluators do a good job of profiling what kind of players these guys are and what roles they need to be put in to succeed. And you have to remember, when these guys come up to the bigs generally they've done a good chunk of their development already.

In Roy Halladay's case, he was ticketed as an elite pitching prospect way back in the late 90s, and I remember a lot of people getting impatient with him as he seemed to not be taking the next step. He was a 1st round draft pick and was compared to guys like Kevin Brown and Mike Mussina. It's not like the talent evaluators were wrong; they were right 100%. It just took Roy a little longer than they expected him to get there.

In Matt Harrison's case (like I said before) as he got closer to the show the Braves personnel department realized he was a maybe 3, probably 4 or 5 rotation guy. And he's been here what, 3 years or so now and has never demonstrated any sort of top-middle rotation ability (a couple of good games doesn't count, any pitcher can have a couple of good games).

In Ogando's case, he profiles to be an elite bullpen back-end guy. If he stretches out as a starter, its going to take some MPH off his fastball and generally make his other pitches way less effective. His second turn through the AL i would imagine him to be far less successful than he is currently. I hope not though.

Personnel departments of major league clubs set the pedigree for these guys. Sometimes they are wrong, but for the most part they profile players correctly. That's why i'm not real rosy on Matt Harrison, and why I think Ogando won't fare as well in the rotation as he does in the pen. A fully developed Tanner Scheppers and Ogando at the back end of the pen with Feliz in the rotation, yes please.

 

[Stautner]

I didn't say you had to be AWESOME your first day in the bigs. Of course all these guys are still developing, but scouts and talent evaluators do a good job of profiling what kind of players these guys are and what roles they need to be put in to succeed. And you have to remember, when these guys come up to the bigs generally they've done a good chunk of their development already.

In Roy Halladay's case, he was ticketed as an elite pitching prospect way back in the late 90s, and I remember a lot of people getting impatient with him as he seemed to not be taking the next step. He was a 1st round draft pick and was compared to guys like Kevin Brown and Mike Mussina. It's not like the talent evaluators were wrong; they were right 100%. It just took Roy a little longer than they expected him to get there.

In Matt Harrison's case (like I said before) as he got closer to the show the Braves personnel department realized he was a maybe 3, probably 4 or 5 rotation guy. And he's been here what, 3 years or so now and has never demonstrated any sort of top-middle rotation ability (a couple of good games doesn't count, any pitcher can have a couple of good games).

In Ogando's case, he profiles to be an elite bullpen back-end guy. If he stretches out as a starter, its going to take some MPH off his fastball and generally make his other pitches way less effective. His second turn through the AL i would imagine him to be far less successful than he is currently. I hope not though.

Personnel departments of major league clubs set the pedigree for these guys. Sometimes they are wrong, but for the most part they profile players correctly. That's why i'm not real rosy on Matt Harrison, and why I think Ogando won't fare as well in the rotation as he does in the pen. A fully developed Tanner Scheppers and Ogando at the back end of the pen with Feliz in the rotation, yes please.

No, you didn't say they had to be AWESOME, but you did very clearly suggest that not having a good 3rd pitch and lacking great control on the fastball indicates a guy isn't likely to work out as a starter, and what we have pointed out is that this is a false notion because many outrstanding pitchers started with these very same traits.

Hell, by this standard C.J. Wilson could never have become a quality starter.

I know you said earlier C.J. is different because he always had a lively arm, but I'm not sure how his 93-94 mph fasteball makes his arm livlier than Ogondo's 95-98 mph fastball.

I just think you are way too dependent on letting others think for you rather than recognizing how things really work, evaluating for yourself from what actually happens, and realizing that what people become is what they actually do, and not what someone believed early in their career they would do. Yes scouts and coaches are in a good position and have a good background to make choices and projections, but those same scouts and coaches will tell you their projections aren't set in stone, and that it's common for players to do more or less or to end up in different roles than initially projected.

What initial projections are is just a best guess based on early evidence and perceptions. Teams have to do this because they have to have some plan to start with rather than fly by the seat of their pants. What you seem to miss is that players evolve, and along with them team projections and expectations evolve.

Besides, Ogondo is only in his second year in the United States. He did not get a career defining projection the second he stepped off the plane. The team felt that at least early on relieving was the best way to go to acclimate him to baseball in the minor leagues and the USA, but that was not intended to be an eternal condemnation of his ability to be a starter.

 

[DIAF]

No, you didn't say they had to be AWESOME, but you did very clearly suggest that not having a good 3rd pitch and lacking great control on the fastball indicates a guy isn't likely to work out as a starter, and what we have pointed out is that this is a false notion because many outrstanding pitchers started with these very same traits.

Yeah, many outstanding pitchers started with those very same traits...when they were 18 or 19 years old. Ogando is 27.

Hell, by this standard C.J. Wilson could never have become a quality starter.

I know you said earlier C.J. is different because he always had a lively arm, but I'm not sure how his 93-94 mph fasteball makes his arm livlier than Ogondo's 95-98 mph fastball.

nyc was talking about CJ, not me. CJ Wilson throws something like 5 pitches. And there's a LOT of difference between a low 90s fastball and a 97mph fastball.

I just think you are way too dependent on letting others think for you rather than recognizing how things really work, evaluating for yourself from what actually happens, and realizing that what people become is what they actually do, and not what someone believed early in their career they would do.

Thanks for the insult. Just go ahead and call me a lemming and stop dancing around it.

So you think you know more as a fan than professional scouts and coaches?

Yes scouts and coaches are in a good position and have a good background to make choices and projections, but those same scouts and coaches will tell you their projections aren't set in stone, and that it's common for players to do more or less or to end up in different roles than initially projected.

Again, I trust the professional opinion of major league scouts and coaches and personnel departments more than my own, or those of other fans. If we knew as much as they did, we'd be scouts and coaches and personnel men.

What initial projections are is just a best guess based on early evidence and perceptions. Teams have to do this because they have to have some plan to start with rather than fly by the seat of their pants. What you seem to miss is that players evolve, and along with them team projections and expectations evolve.

Oh, thanks for telling me that players evolve. I had always wondered what those minor leagues were for! Now I know!
One of the players we are talking about here (Matt Harrison) is already 25, has been in the majors for most of 4 seasons now, and has 6 years of minor league experience where he showed that he was not a big strikeout pitcher, was a hittable finesse lefty. He's been developing for 8 or 9 years now. I think they've got good idea about him already. He's mostly finished with his evolving. Is it possible for a player to suddenly become great at age 25/26 after not showing much of that kind of ability the 8 years previous? Sure. Likely? No.

Besides, Ogondo is only in his second year in the United States. He did not get a career defining projection the second he stepped off the plane. The team felt that at least early on relieving was the best way to go to acclimate him to baseball in the minor leagues and the USA, but that was not intended to be an eternal condemnation of his ability to be a starter.

As mentioned before, Ogando's 27. He's not young. He's already matured physically. He's been a pitcher now for 5 years playing winter ball, Dominican Leagues, and any International tournament the Rangers could get him in to. Its not like the first time the Rangers have seen him was the second he stepped off the plane.

 

[YosemiteSam]

What the hell is up with Ogando and that stupid blister?!?!? :laugh2:

 

[WDN]

Well, last year the theme was "Its Time". This year it looks like it should be "The starting pitchers have to throw a complete game or our sorry excuse for a so called bullpen is going to blow it for us and we can't hit in crucial situations to save our lives so we will either score a ton of runs or lose with only scoring 3 runs".

 

[Stautner]

As mentioned before, Ogando's 27. He's not young. He's already matured physically. He's been a pitcher now for 5 years playing winter ball, Dominican Leagues, and any International tournament the Rangers could get him in to. Its not like the first time the Rangers have seen him was the second he stepped off the plane.

Yes, he's matured physically, and he has one of the strongest arms in the entire Ranger's orgainization. I'm not aware of anyone saying he doesn't have the physical gifts, are you? If he were 27 and were physically undeveloped you would have a point, but as it is I don't see a point at all.

As for development as a player, I'm not sure what kind of MLB path of development you thought the Rangers could put him on by seeing him throw 15-30 ininngs a year in the Dominican Summer Leagues before he got off the plane in the United States, but a year ago was the first time they were able to even get him in their minor league system, and they felt good enough about him that Ogando only spent about 2 months in the minor leagues and was bumped to the major leagues in June. In addition, he was relied on to play a key role in a playoff run, and in the playoffs and World Series, and all this in just his very first year in the United States. That hardly indicates a lack of confidence.

So yes, they had "seen him" before he got off the plane, and once he got off the plane he was promoted from Double A to Triple A to the majors so fast that the fans in Frisco and Oklahoma City only had to blink and he was gone.

Now they are seeing how much further he can go, and it shows a hell of a lot of confidence to put a guy in his position with only 2 months of minor league baseball under his belt. Obviously it remains to be seen how he will hold up over the long haul, and likely he will wear down some this year if he continues to start in that he will be asked to throw dramatically more innings than he is used to, but there is more than ample reason to be optimistic.

By the way, he threw another outstanding game last night. So far in 6 starts he has a 3-0 record and a 2.17 ERA. I don't know about you, but that looks like a pretty good reason for optimism to me.

 

[cowboyeric8]

It is going to be a tough month. Our bullpen is complete trash right now, our hitting is terrible (other than Michael Young, which doesn't surprise me, hell of a hitter). Thankfully the rest of the division isn't doing so hot either, we need to right the ship. Feliz can't get back soon enough.

 

[Stautner]

It is going to be a tough month. Our bullpen is complete trash right now, our hitting is terrible (other than Michael Young, which doesn't surprise me, hell of a hitter). Thankfully the rest of the division isn't doing so hot either, we need to right the ship. Feliz can't get back soon enough.

Ranger hitting is as it always is - hot as hell or cold as ice. Pitching is the key, and with the bullpen struggling its going to be hard to fight through the cold hitting spells.

 

[cowboyeric8]

Ranger hitting is as it always is - hot as hell or cold as ice. Pitching is the key, and with the bullpen struggling its going to be hard to fight through the cold hitting spells.

Yes sir. Its going to be tough fight for the division, there are only about two pitchers I trust anymore, and that CJ and Feliz. The bullpen is just scary.

 

[DIAF]

The bullpen is killing this team right now. And by killing, I mean stabbing it in the face, running it through with a sword and shooting it in both eyes.

 

[YosemiteSam]

Didn't need the bullpen last night.

Early on I wasn't sure CJ was going to get through a full seven innings, but he cleaned it up and started mowing them down. He matched his career high with 12 strikeouts in the complete game win.

 

[WDN]

After the 5th inning with 87 pitches thrown Maddox went to talk to CJ. CJ told him "Im finishing this. ". LOL. He didn't want to give the bullpen a chance to blow this one. Kudos CJ.

 

[Stautner]

Yeah, many outstanding pitchers started with those very same traits...when they were 18 or 19 years old. Ogando is 27.

First, you are talking about guys that started out in a ML farms system at an early age, and Ogando didn't have that opportunity - second, you are talking about guys who took 3-4 years to become major league players, sometimes longer to become quality ML players, and Ogando only took 2 months - and third, in an earlier post i gave the example of several pitchers who didn't get their control down and perfect multiple pitches until they were well into their major league careers. Again, if you pay attention you will note that there are many cases of pitchers not getting it together intil their mid to late 20's, even with the benefit of a full minor league development period, which, again, Ogando did not have.

nyc was talking about CJ, not me. CJ Wilson throws something like 5 pitches. And there's a LOT of difference between a low 90s fastball and a 97mph fastball.

You do realize that C.J wasn't considered a starter until last year, and he was only reluctantly given the chance to do so then. You keep claiming that early assessments of players are so significant, yet when you are faced with the fact that players aren't actually locked into an early assessement then suddenly that doesn't matter so much. I guess early assessments only apply to player4s you can use to support your point, but are meaningless with players that don't support your point.

And yes, there is a LOT of difference between a low 90's fastball and a 97 mph fastball - and Ogando is the one that can throw the 97 mph fastball, so I'm wondering how you think this comments supports your point.

So you think you know more as a fan than professional scouts and coaches?

Again, I trust the professional opinion of major league scouts and coaches and personnel departments more than my own, or those of other fans. If we knew as much as they did, we'd be scouts and coaches and personnel men.

Let me ask you this - why is it that you trust scouts and coaches making an assessment of a player before he has had a chance to develop. but you do not trust these same coaches to make an assessment after the player starts to develop. That kind of makes your argument look prestty silly to me.

As for me, no, I don't think I do know more than they do, which is why I trust them to make decisons on how to proceed with a players career as it progresses. Again, I find it funny that you believe a coach can make a set in stone assessment of a player's future before he has a chance to mature, learn and grown, but a coach cannot make a fair assessment of a player's potential after he starts to mature and learn and grow.

And, of course, I still find it ironic that you can completely ignore the fact that hostory has proven that players are not locked into a projection early in their minor league development. To continue to do that is to profess ignorance of what the entire minor league system is all about.

Oh, thanks for telling me that players evolve. I had always wondered what those minor leagues were for! Now I know!

You have continually ignored that it occurs, and in fact have continually suggested that players cannot evolve beyond what some scout or coach initically projected, so it's pretty clear you either weren't aware, or just chose to ignore it to suit your purpose.

One of the players we are talking about here (Matt Harrison) is already 25, has been in the majors for most of 4 seasons now, and has 6 years of minor league experience where he showed that he was not a big strikeout pitcher, was a hittable finesse lefty. He's been developing for 8 or 9 years now. I think they've got good idea about him already. He's mostly finished with his evolving. Is it possible for a player to suddenly become great at age 25/26 after not showing much of that kind of ability the 8 years previous? Sure. Likely? No.

And Harrison may not make it as a starter - I told you all along that I was skeptical about him myself. All I said was that there was reason for optimism. Developing into a major league quality pitcher isn't restricted to guys who do so before 25 - there are an infinite number of pitchers -and position players for that matter - that don't hit their stride until mid to late 20's.

Of course it's not always likely, but my point has never been that every pitcher WILL develop, but rather that it makes no sense to condemn them before we are certain, and especially at a point when they are performing well. When you do that you are ignoring that players can develop, which goes completely against the time proven history of MLB. That's what you have done with Harrison and Ogando.

As mentioned before, Ogando's 27. He's not young. He's already matured physically. He's been a pitcher now for 5 years playing winter ball, Dominican Leagues, and any International tournament the Rangers could get him in to. Its not like the first time the Rangers have seen him was the second he stepped off the plane.

And, again, as mentioned before, this is a pointless statement because being able to watch him in the Dominican says nothing at all about what they felt he could do once he got to the United States.

What does speak volumes about what the Rangers felt he could do in the United States is that they put him on the fast track to the majors as soon as he stepped of the plane, so I'm baffled at what you think this argument (?) does to support your point. The Rangers felt confident enough to promote him to the majors after only 2 moths of minor league ball, and felt confident enough to use him as a key bullpen pitcher in his very first year in the United States, and felt confdent enough to give him a shot to start this year.

You seem to be suggesting that despite seeing Ogando pitch for several years in the Dominican Republic the Rangers are still unsure about him, which is completely the opposite of what the facts show. They have rushed him into the majors faster than any pitcher the orgainization has had since David Clyde, and that's because they knew that with his talent and maturity level he was capable of doing it, not because they felt he was a limited prospect as you keep suggesting.

 

[DIAF]

First, you are talking about guys that started out in a ML farms system at an early age, and Ogando didn't have that opportunity - second, you are talking about guys who took 3-4 years to become major league players, sometimes longer to become quality ML players, and Ogando only took 2 months - and third, in an earlier post i gave the example of several pitchers who didn't get their control down and perfect multiple pitches until they were well into their major league careers. Again, if you pay attention you will note that there are many cases of pitchers not getting it together intil their mid to late 20's, even with the benefit of a full minor league development period, which, again, Ogando did not have.



You do realize that C.J wasn't considered a starter until last year, and he was only reluctantly given the chance to do so then. You keep claiming that early assessments of players are so significant, yet when you are faced with the fact that players aren't actually locked into an early assessement then suddenly that doesn't matter so much. I guess early assessments only apply to player4s you can use to support your point, but are meaningless with players that don't support your point.

And yes, there is a LOT of difference between a low 90's fastball and a 97 mph fastball - and Ogando is the one that can throw the 97 mph fastball, so I'm wondering how you think this comments supports your point.



Let me ask you this - why is it that you trust scouts and coaches making an assessment of a player before he has had a chance to develop. but you do not trust these same coaches to make an assessment after the player starts to develop. That kind of makes your argument look prestty silly to me.

As for me, no, I don't think I do know more than they do, which is why I trust them to make decisons on how to proceed with a players career as it progresses. Again, I find it funny that you believe a coach can make a set in stone assessment of a player's future before he has a chance to mature, learn and grown, but a coach cannot make a fair assessment of a player's potential after he starts to mature and learn and grow.

And, of course, I still find it ironic that you can completely ignore the fact that hostory has proven that players are not locked into a projection early in their minor league development. To continue to do that is to profess ignorance of what the entire minor league system is all about.



You have continually ignored that it occurs, and in fact have continually suggested that players cannot evolve beyond what some scout or coach initically projected, so it's pretty clear you either weren't aware, or just chose to ignore it to suit your purpose.



And Harrison may not make it as a starter - I told you all along that I was skeptical about him myself. All I said was that there was reason for optimism. Developing into a major league quality pitcher isn't restricted to guys who do so before 25 - there are an infinite number of pitchers -and position players for that matter - that don't hit their stride until mid to late 20's.

Of course it's not always likely, but my point has never been that every pitcher WILL develop, but rather that it makes no sense to condemn them before we are certain, and especially at a point when they are performing well. When you do that you are ignoring that players can develop, which goes completely against the time proven history of MLB. That's what you have done with Harrison and Ogando.



And, again, as mentioned before, this is a pointless statement because being able to watch him in the Dominican says nothing at all about what they felt he could do once he got to the United States.

What does speak volumes about what the Rangers felt he could do in the United States is that they put him on the fast track to the majors as soon as he stepped of the plane, so I'm baffled at what you think this argument (?) does to support your point. The Rangers felt confident enough to promote him to the majors after only 2 moths of minor league ball, and felt confident enough to use him as a key bullpen pitcher in his very first year in the United States, and felt confdent enough to give him a shot to start this year.

You seem to be suggesting that despite seeing Ogando pitch for several years in the Dominican Republic the Rangers are still unsure about him, which is completely the opposite of what the facts show. They have rushed him into the majors faster than any pitcher the orgainization has had since David Clyde, and that's because they knew that with his talent and maturity level he was capable of doing it, not because they felt he was a limited prospect as you keep suggesting.

Ogando was "rushed" to the majors as a reliever because he's 27, he's been pitching in winter ball and against international competition (which features a lot of current and former major/minor leaguers) for 5 years, and he's an elite prospect arm. He's already advanced due to physical maturity.

All this talk of him only having two months of minor league experience, "just stepped off the plane", as if he overcame all this culture shock while learning how to pitch is ridiculous. Ogando has spent a couple of years in the US before his Visa flap in the A's system as an OF prospect. He's been around.

You keep trying to pin the CJ Wilson thing on me - like I said, I didn't bring up CJ Wilson. NYC did.

Also, it's almost like you aren't hearing me. That when these guys are drafted, some scout makes a prediction and then BAM that player is that and can never be anything more - you keep trying to put these words in my mouth. Scouts and talent evaluators assessments keep changing as a prospect matures - this is what ive been arguing about all along. Take Matt Harrison for example. He was drafted fairly high right out of high school but the furter along he got in the Braves system as he matured and advanced through the system the more it was evident that he was trending towards being a different type of player than he was initially projected to be.

Remember, we aren't talking about 18, 19, 20 year olds here. We are talking about 24, 27 year-old pitchers who are entering their physical peak and in Ogando's case, already starting his "prime" years. The physical maturity is done. The development is mostly done. Guys are what they are.

Every single example you have been mentioning (roy halladay, etc) are all guys that were ticketed for big things from the very beginning and have maintained that status all throughout their growth and subsequent major league debuts. That's not the Matt Harrison experience.

Maybe you can hold out hope that Matt Harrison will all of a sudden become an ace strikeout artist and win the first of several Cy Youngs, but to me he's the same guy that disappointed the Braves enough to deal him to Texas, and he's the same guy that has mostly pitched like a 4 or 5 starter/RP-spot starter that most baseball folks thought he would be. You can continue to try and put words in my mouth and play the one-up game, but Matt Harrison's 4 years of mediocrity in the Majors and his current ERA of a million.highnumber tells a different story.

Go Rangers!

CJ Wilson is a freakin' BOSS. Oh how I wish we had some bullpen arms to take the pressure of CJ and Colbyashi

 

[Stautner]

I have 0 faith in Harrison or Ogando.

Ogando ought to be in the pen ............ At least Holland has ace/#2 potential, so he's at least got pedigree.

I think by the time Tommy is ready to come back, Ogando and/or Harrison will have imploded by then

Ogando's projections were to be a back-of-the-bullpen reliever or a closer, (2-pitch pitcher with one of them being an electric fastball, and mechanics that might produce some injury risk) not so much a starting pitcher.

Harrison and Ogando, there's a better-than-even chance they are going to implode as starters. I'd rather have Tommy out there than one of them.

Ogando was "rushed" to the majors as a reliever because he's 27, he's been pitching in winter ball and against international competition (which features a lot of current and former major/minor leaguers) for 5 years, and he's an elite prospect arm. He's already advanced due to physical maturity.

All this talk of him only having two months of minor league experience, "just stepped off the plane", as if he overcame all this culture shock while learning how to pitch is ridiculous. Ogando has spent a couple of years in the US before his Visa flap in the A's system as an OF prospect. He's been around.

You keep trying to pin the CJ Wilson thing on me - like I said, I didn't bring up CJ Wilson. NYC did.

Also, it's almost like you aren't hearing me. That when these guys are drafted, some scout makes a prediction and then BAM that player is that and can never be anything more - you keep trying to put these words in my mouth. Scouts and talent evaluators assessments keep changing as a prospect matures - this is what ive been arguing about all along. Take Matt Harrison for example. He was drafted fairly high right out of high school but the furter along he got in the Braves system as he matured and advanced through the system the more it was evident that he was trending towards being a different type of player than he was initially projected to be.

Remember, we aren't talking about 18, 19, 20 year olds here. We are talking about 24, 27 year-old pitchers who are entering their physical peak and in Ogando's case, already starting his "prime" years. The physical maturity is done. The development is mostly done. Guys are what they are.

Every single example you have been mentioning (roy halladay, etc) are all guys that were ticketed for big things from the very beginning and have maintained that status all throughout their growth and subsequent major league debuts. That's not the Matt Harrison experience.

Maybe you can hold out hope that Matt Harrison will all of a sudden become an ace strikeout artist and win the first of several Cy Youngs, but to me he's the same guy that disappointed the Braves enough to deal him to Texas, and he's the same guy that has mostly pitched like a 4 or 5 starter/RP-spot starter that most baseball folks thought he would be. You can continue to try and put words in my mouth and play the one-up game, but Matt Harrison's 4 years of mediocrity in the Majors and his current ERA of a million.highnumber tells a different story.

Go Rangers!

CJ Wilson is a freakin' BOSS. Oh how I wish we had some bullpen arms to take the pressure of CJ and Colbyashi

Looks like all you can talk about is Harrison - which interestingly enough is the one all along I have said I at least understand being skeptical of - nevertheless you somehow were able to convince yourself that it was a fair comment to suggest I might think he is going to win several Cy Youngs.

Of course even with Harrison your argument was puzzling - you condemned him as a starter in large part because his early projection was to be a No. 3 starter at best, as if that were a ngative. Hell, he could fall short of that projection and still be a valuable starter on a pitching staff, so the argument made no sense.

As for Ogando, you are backpeddling fast. In this thread you have had him as a guy who would implode as a starter to a guy with no pedigree to a guy who can't be expected to be a starter because he was initially projected as a reliever to an ELITE ARM. Somehow I am confused by how a guy with an elite arm can be said to have no pedigree.

Yes, he was rushed to the majors because of his elite arm - therein lies my point. The Rangers aren't placing the limitations on him that you are.

Which, again, leads to my question about how you can have such an unyielding faith in a coaches early projection of a player before a team has a chance to work with him him, yet you have no faith in what the team thinks about the player after they have a chance to work with him.

Apparently coaches are clairvoyant geniuses when the make a projection on a prospect they haven't had a chanced to work with, but become idiots once they work with a player and the projection evolves.

Perhaps the problem lies in your understanding of the word "projection". A "projection" is not intended as a clear and certain pinpointing of what a player can and will do, it is a best guess based on information and perceptions at a particular point in time. Coaches know and accept that projections are far from perfect and are just a starting point, and that the projection may not be the ending point.

You claim now you aren't locking guys into whatever their early projections were but that defies the facts because that is the one argument you have clung to all along.

The "culture shock" argument is a nice touch too. Ogando may have set foot in the US 5-6 years ago, but look at the facts, last year was Ogando's first in a MLB farm system. Your little exaggerations can't change that.

As for CJ, maybe you didn't originally bring him up, but the fact remains that CJ did exactly what you claim Ogando can't do. You are just trying to divert attentiion from that fact. CJ was prjected as a relieve, and he was used as a reliever, and last year when he asked to try out as a starter the Rangers were hesitant, but agree simply because he hadn't worked out so well in the role he was projected to play. Then, at an advanced age for a first time starter, CJ eveloved into an outstanding starter. So get off your diversion about who first mentioned CJ and recognize the fact that CJ is living proof that a guy can do exactly what you claim Ogando cannot.

The backpeddle is nice though.

 

[Stautner]

This might be a good time to ask if you can produce these projections you keep talking about, including when they were made and who made them.

My recollection about the earliest I heard about Ogando was that short relief was the spot where he was most likely to make an immediate impact, but i don't recall any limitation placed on his ability to do more.