Thanking Rams, Eagles

[DogFace]

It's a useless analysis because the sample size is so small that one player would swing the QBs in the 30s from having a 50% hit rate to only a 33% hit rate.

It's HIGHLY debatable that Colin Kaepernick is a franchise QB at this point.

It still demonstrates my point. Which is failures in drafting Qb's in the top of the draft. Which further demonstrates that because some had these two rated highly doesn't mean they will be successful. There are many examples backing this up.

 

[Stash]

When does a claim become a fact?

When it's provable.

Did you provide that with your claim about a "consensus"?

Google is my facts. Anybody interested is free to look there and find the truth themselves. They'll support what I'm saying. The only lesson still dumb enough to question it is you.

Gimmesix took care of data that supported the claim.

His 'data' is junk research, rendered useless by a forced qualifier, inserted to manipulate the actual numbers.

That must be embarrassing for you.

Hardly. I have no problems refuting junk research, especially when it's compared to better work.

I'm still waiting on this consensus info

Keep on waiting. Nobody works for you. If you want to try to dispute the facts of what has happened, you do your own homework. All I see is a lazy parrot who piggybacks off of the work of somebody else, as long as it agrees with his opinion.

 

[Stash]

It still demonstrates my point. Which is failures in drafting Qb's in the top of the draft. Which further demonstrates that because some had these two rated highly doesn't mean they will be successful. There are many examples backing this up.

No it doesn't. It's garbage and it carries zero weight.

 

[Stash]

BRANDON WEEDEN, BLAINE GABBERT, BRADY QUINN, CRISTAIN PONDER, TIM TEEBOW, GINO SMITH, EJ MANUAL, JONNY MANZIEL, RG3.

Hahaha, where were your precious scouts there. LOL.

Jay Cutler - free agent.

Game-set-match.

 

[Stash]

You said franchise QBs don't become FA. Yet, one won the SB last year while another was signed FROM THE SAME TEAM elsewhere.

So you are completely wrong.

Jay Cutler - free agent.

 

[Sydla]

It still demonstrates my point. Which is failures in drafting Qb's in the top of the draft. Which further demonstrates that because some had these two rated highly doesn't mean they will be successful. There are many examples backing this up.

So wait............ you figured out that QBs in the Top 5 have a high bust factor?

Stop the presses!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[DogFace]

So wait............ you figured out that QBs in the Top 5 have a high bust factor?

Stop the presses!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That's the entire discussion. Buckarroo said that Wentz and Goff were consensus top picks and we were fools for passing on them.

The failures demonstrate that they too could fail as many others did.

 

[DogFace]

When it's provable.



Google is my facts. Anybody interested is free to look there and find the truth themselves. They'll support what I'm saying. The only lesson still dumb enough to question it is you.



His 'data' is junk research, rendered useless by a forced qualifier, inserted to manipulate the actual numbers.



Hardly. I have no problems refuting junk research, especially when it's compared to better work.



Keep on waiting. Nobody works for you. If you want to try to dispute the facts of what has happened, you do your own homework. All I see is a lazy parrot who piggybacks off of the work of somebody else, as long as it agrees with his opinion.

He listed several drafts and what appeared to be several failed Qb's.

 

[MrPhil]

For what it is worth, I did a little research recently on stats (from NFL.com) for QBs drafted in the last 20 years. Below is some of what I found in terms of career stat averages:

Round 1 QBs
15,973 yards
98 TDs
64 INTs

Round 2 QBs
9,456 yards
56 TDs
41 INTs

Round 3 QBs
4,938 yards
28 TDs
21 INTs

Round 4 QBs
3,472 yards
20 TDs
16 TDs

Round 5 QBs
728 yards
4 TDs
5 INTs

Round 6 QBs
3,989 yards
25 TDs
15 INTs

Round 7 QBs
1,404 yards
9 TDs
7 INTs

There is clearly a drop off in average stats after Round 1 and again after Round 2. This is not to say that either Goff or Wentz will or will not be successful in their careers but clearly history shows that after the 1st round and 2nd rounds in particular, the odds of a QB being successful for you are very small.

 

[Idgit]

So much vitriol in this thread. Over so little.

We'd have taken the QB this year if he'd been available. He wasn't. We do happen to have our franchise guy for the near term. If we're going to have to sell the farm to get the QB, it makes sense to do it when you absolutely have to. Potentially sitting the four pick for three years is one thing. Sitting three years' worth of number one picks that long is another.

The Rams and the Eagles don't have Tony Romo, and wouldn't have made their trades if they did. It's not the same situation.

Maybe some of you would have made the trade up this year. That's fine. Personally, it's too soon to give up that much draft stock. But I don't believe you don't also see the merit in not moving so soon if we didn't see the value on the board to be sufficient. There's absolutely nothing special about Goff or Wentz that won't be available in any other upcoming draft.

 

[Sydla]

That's the entire discussion. Buckarroo said that Wentz and Goff were consensus top picks and we were fools for passing on them.

The failures demonstrate that they too could fail as many others did.

He's not wrong. They are consensus top picks by most indications. Doesn't mean they can't fail. But the reality is in order to get a franchise QB, you are going to likely have to take a risk on a player despite the fact that QBs have a high bust factor.

If the Cowboys wanted a franchise QB out of this draft to take over for Romo down the road, their odds of finding that guy were probably better in getting a Wentz or Goff compared to some of the other names we've heard like Prescott and Cook.

 

[Idgit]

For what it is worth, I did a little research recently on stats (from NFL.com) for QBs drafted in the last 20 years. Below is some of what I found in terms of career stat averages:

Round 1 QBs
15,973 yards
98 TDs
64 INTs

Round 2 QBs
9,456 yards
56 TDs
41 INTs

Round 3 QBs
4,938 yards
28 TDs
21 INTs

Round 4 QBs
3,472 yards
20 TDs
16 TDs

Round 5 QBs
728 yards
4 TDs
5 INTs

Round 6 QBs
3,989 yards
25 TDs
15 INTs

Round 7 QBs
1,404 yards
9 TDs
7 INTs

There is clearly a drop off in average stats after Round 1 and again after Round 2. This is not to say that either Goff or Wentz will or will not be successful in their careers but clearly history shows that after the 1st round and 2nd rounds in particular, the odds of a QB being successful for you are very small.

Problem is, there are a lot of good QBs drafted by better teams late in round one that contribute to those statistics. It's not just a measure of why you should sell the farm for a top five QB.

 

[MrPhil]

There's absolutely nothing special about Goff or Wentz that won't be available in any other upcoming draft.

This is the only portion of what you said that I would take a little issue with. The Eagles apparently looked ahead to those upcoming drafts and determined that these QBs in this draft were their best chance at getting a franchise QB. Only time will tell if they were correct or if they made a colossal mistake.

I just hope that Jerry is accurate about how much longer Romo will play.

 

[MrPhil]

Problem is, there are a lot of good QBs drafted by better teams late in round one that contribute to those statistics. It's not just a measure of why you should sell the farm for a top five QB.

Agreed and it was not my intent to make that case. My intent was to dispel any notion that it is easy to get a franchise QB in the mid to later rounds. I know you didn't ask but I will break out these numbers for round 1 in terms of where in the round they were taken.

 

[Denim Chicken]

Jay Cutler - free agent.

Payton Manning - Not a free agent

You know nothing Jon Snow

 

[Stash]

That's the entire discussion. Buckarroo said that Wentz and Goff were consensus top picks and we were fools for passing on them.

Yet another lie! From a fountain of misinformation. Where did I ever say any such thing? Where did I ever say that we were "fools for passing" on players that never got to our draft position? You should produce it or be banned for blatantly lying about and making false claims against someone else!

Furthermore, how can anyone claim the Cowboys "passed" on players they never had the opportunity to draft? You sir are nothing more than a liar who doesn't deserve to be here.

The failures demonstrate that they too could fail as many others did.

As per the norm, you've got nothing of substance to your position and simply run to the fact that players have actually busted as some kind of support for a failed argument.

And now resorted to making up bold-faced lies about other people.

You deserve to be banned.

 

[Kaiser]

For what it is worth, I did a little research recently on stats (from NFL.com) for QBs drafted in the last 20 years. Below is some of what I found in terms of career stat averages:

Great post, I was looking for some of these breakouts the other day. The quibble I would have with using a stat like avg yards for the last 20 years is that you have to go back 20 years to include Payton Manning in the stat. Also the 2004 draft twelve years ago of Eli, Rivers and Roethlisberger is a big chunk of those yards as well.

I think you have to consider the #1 overall pick a separate category. If you have it I would love to see the breakout of #1 overall picks and how many hit or miss, then the rest of Round 1, then Rounds 2 & 3, then the rest of the draft. The percentage of successful picks is obviously going to be higher the higher the draft choice - but I think the percentages will be something a big chunk of this forum won't like.

For example, even at the #1 overall pick for the last ten years you have wins in Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and (being generous) Jameis Winston. But you also have Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford and JaMarcus Russell. The numbers for QBs picked in the 2nd to 10th overall picks look worse.

 

[Stash]

He's not wrong. They are consensus top picks by most indications. Doesn't mean they can't fail. But the reality is in order to get a franchise QB, you are going to likely have to take a risk on a player despite the fact that QBs have a high bust factor.

If the Cowboys wanted a franchise QB out of this draft to take over for Romo down the road, their odds of finding that guy were probably better in getting a Wentz or Goff compared to some of the other names we've heard like Prescott and Cook.

For the sake of truth, I never made any claim of the Cowboys being "fools for passing on them". That was an out-and-out lie.

 

[Stash]

Payton Manning - Not a free agent

You know nothing Jon Snow

Jay Cutler - free agent.

 

[Idgit]

Agreed and it was not my intent to make that case. My intent was to dispel any notion that it is easy to get a franchise QB in the mid to later rounds. I know you didn't ask but I will break out these numbers for round 1 in terms of where in the round they were taken.

Yeah, that's what I think makes the decision a tough one. There's so much risk making a move up for a Goff or a Wentz or an RGIII. It makes the thought of taking one or more of the Bridgewaters or Carrs or Lynches of the world more attractive.

Then there's also the idea that top-5 QBs get more time and reps to prove themselves because of what they cost the team to get them in the first place. Just look at the RGIII/Cousins situation for an example of that. RGIII got a lot more support than he probably deserved in WAS when they had what turned out to be a better option on the bench. You wonder how many guys from those lower rounds ended up being less successful than they might have been because they didn't have the pedigree to get enough snaps to really develop.