Thanking Rams, Eagles

[LandryFan]

So much vitriol in this thread. Over so little.

We'd have taken the QB this year if he'd been available. He wasn't. We do happen to have our franchise guy for the near term. If we're going to have to sell the farm to get the QB, it makes sense to do it when you absolutely have to. Potentially sitting the four pick for three years is one thing. Sitting three years' worth of number one picks that long is another.

The Rams and the Eagles don't have Tony Romo, and wouldn't have made their trades if they did. It's not the same situation.

Maybe some of you would have made the trade up this year. That's fine. Personally, it's too soon to give up that much draft stock. But I don't believe you don't also see the merit in not moving so soon if we didn't seem the value on the board to be sufficient. There's absolutely nothing special about Goff or Wentz that won't be available in any other upcoming draft.

Careful now, you'll ruin someone's whine-fest. I'm not sure what's more pronounced in this thread, the ignorance or the arrogance.

 

[MrPhil]

Great post, I was looking for some of these breakouts the other day. The quibble I would have with using a stat like avg yards for the last 20 years is that you have to go back 20 years to include Payton Manning in the stat. Also the 2004 draft twelve years ago of Eli, Rivers and Roethlisberger is a big chunk of those yards as well.

I think you have to consider the #1 overall pick a separate category. If you have it I would love to see the breakout of #1 overall picks and how many hit or miss, then the rest of Round 1, then Rounds 2 & 3, then the rest of the draft. The percentage of successful picks is obviously going to be higher the higher the draft choice - but I think the percentages will be something a big chunk of this forum won't like.

For example, even at the #1 overall pick for the last ten years you have wins in Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and (being generous) Jameis Winston. But you also have Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford and JaMarcus Russell. The numbers for QBs picked in the 2nd to 10th overall picks look worse.

To be fair the 20 year timeframe was somewhat arbitrary and based on another conversation in another post here.

 

[Idgit]

This is the only portion of what you said that I would take a little issue with. The Eagles apparently looked ahead to those upcoming drafts and determined that these QBs in this draft were their best chance at getting a franchise QB. Only time will tell if they were correct or if they made a colossal mistake.

I just hope that Jerry is accurate about how much longer Romo will play.

Only time will tell, as you say. I preferred Goff, but would have been all over either player at 4 if they fell. I would not have gone all-in for either of them. There'll be somebody really good at the top of the next 2-3 drafts, regardless. Since so much depends on player development and the resources around the QBs after their drafted, anyway, there's really no good way to compare between draft years.

 

[Denim Chicken]

Jay Cutler - free agent.

OK, wow. That's so hilarious.

More glaring that you, in your infinite wisdom, missed two FA QB from last year. From the Super Bowl winner no less.

Bahaha

 

[MrPhil]

Ok, so here are the average careers yards passing by QBs based on where they were picked in the 1st round, over the past 20 years:

#1 overall = 23,888 yards

#1 - 5 = 20,206 yards

#6 - 10 = 8,290 yards

#11 - 15 = 21,665 yards

#16 - 20 = 14,464 yards

#21 - 25 = 9,909 yards

#26 - 32 = 4,106 yards

 

[Stash]

Yeah, that's what I think makes the decision a tough one. There's so much risk making a move up for a Goff or a Wentz or an RGIII. It makes the thought of taking one or more of the Bridgewaters or Carrs or Lynches of the world more attractive.

I lament not having the opportunity to draft one of them, but not the cost. If I had to, I applaud the front office for not getting involved at those prices. But it still doesn't help us to solve our quarterback needs.

Then there's also the idea that top-5 QBs get more time and reps to prove themselves because of what they cost the team to get them in the first place. Just look at the RGIII/Cousins situation for an example of that. RGIII got a lot more support than he probably deserved in WAS when they had what turned out to be a better option on the bench. You wonder how many guys from those lower rounds ended up being less successful than they might have been because they didn't have the pedigree to get enough snaps to really develop.

Yeah, but conversely, there's also the question of how many good quarterbacks were ruined being drafted by incompetent organization's with little talent too. Some guys like Plunkett and Steve Young to name a few went on to win Super Bowls after escaping from bad teams.

 

[Stash]

OK, wow. That's so hilarious.

More glaring that you, in your infinite wisdom, missed two FA QB from last year.

I didn't "miss" anything at all. But unlike you, I didn't make a false claim.

Jay Cutler - free agent.

 

[MrPhil]

Only time will tell, as you say. I preferred Goff, but would have been all over either player at 4 if they fell. I would not have gone all-in for either of them. There'll be somebody really good at the top of the next 2-3 drafts, regardless. Since so much depends on player development and the resources around the QBs after their drafted, anyway, there's really no good way to compare between draft years.

I cant disagree with anything you said here. My only issue is that it will likely be a long time before we earn another Top 5 pick and are in position to get one of those Top QBs. I agree that the price was very high, but I don't see it going down.

 

[Kaiser]

To be fair the 20 year timeframe was somewhat arbitrary and based on another conversation in another post here.

Sure, me using the 10 year timeframe is arbitrary because it backs the bias I have (not that you have one, but I do). If you go twelve years you include the very atypical 2004 year with Eli, Rivers and Roeslisberger. I may try to put this into a "percentage of success" listing later today, I'll post it if I do.

 

[LandryFan]

This is the only portion of what you said that I would take a little issue with. The Eagles apparently looked ahead to those upcoming drafts and determined that these QBs in this draft were their best chance at getting a franchise QB. Only time will tell if they were correct or if they made a colossal mistake.

I just hope that Jerry is accurate about how much longer Romo will play.

You're correct in that the eagles' GM stated that they 'looked down the road" and determined that now is the time to pounce for a QB, but the problem with that approach, IMO, is that they have no way of knowing how players will develop in the next two or three years. I can all but guarantee that we all will be having these same QB debates next year at this time. If the eagles had a crystal ball, they'd also have a few trophies in their trophy case right now.

 

[Sydla]

OK, wow. That's so hilarious.

More glaring that you, in your infinite wisdom, missed two FA QB from last year. From the Super Bowl winner no less.

Bahaha

First of all, while Manning was a free agent he was at the end of his career and the only reason he hit free agency was because Indy had the #1 pick and Luck was there. The franchise wanted a new direction. And in reality, Manning is an anomaly in that big time QBs rarely hit free agency.

And are you talking about Brock Osweiler as being a franchise QB?

 

[DogFace]

He's not wrong. They are consensus top picks by most indications. Doesn't mean they can't fail. But the reality is in order to get a franchise QB, you are going to likely have to take a risk on a player despite the fact that QBs have a high bust factor.

If the Cowboys wanted a franchise QB out of this draft to take over for Romo down the road, their odds of finding that guy were probably better in getting a Wentz or Goff compared to some of the other names we've heard like Prescott and Cook.

Oh thanks.

I think they feel other players would benefit us more and letting a guy sit two years was a wasted pick. So they're going in a different direction.

 

[MrPhil]

You're correct in that the eagles' GM stated that they 'looked down the road" and determined that now is the time to pounce for a QB, but the problem with that approach, IMO, is that they have no way of knowing how players will develop in the next two or three years. I can all but guarantee that we all will be having these same QB debates next year at this time. If the eagles had a crystal ball, they'd also have a few trophies in their trophy case right now.

Sure, it is all about projection. Projecting how the players in this draft will continue to develop and how the future players will develop in college and then in the NFL. I was not at all suggesting that the Eagles will be correct only that they did look ahead and based their decision to move up, in part, based on what they saw. As I said in another post, only time will tell if they were right or wrong.

 

[Denim Chicken]

I didn't "miss" anything at all. But unlike you, I didn't make a false claim.

Jay Cutler - free agent.

Franchise Quarterbacks don't become free agents. It just doesn't happen.

Your words.

Yet one just won the SB.

You can't make this stuff up.

Keep diggin, lol.

 

[Stash]

You're correct in that the eagles' GM stated that they 'looked down the road" and determined that now is the time to pounce for a QB, but the problem with that approach, IMO, is that they have no way of knowing how players will develop in the next two or three years. I can all but guarantee that we all will be having these same QB debates next year at this time. If the eagles had a crystal ball, they'd also have a few trophies in their trophy case right now.

I don't think it takes a "crystal ball" to see that the proliferation of spread offenses vs more pro style systems will make it harder and harder to find NFL-ready players.

My own opinion is that the situation will reach a breaking point where it starts to hurt the NFL product and it will ultimately take the game where it should have gone years ago. To a true minor-league system with NFL teams acquiring, coaching, and developing players for the future.

It continues to amaze me that the league still refuses to commit to it.

 

[Sydla]

Oh thanks.

I think they feel other players would benefit us more and letting a guy sit two years was a wasted pick. So they're going in a different direction.

I suspect that's clearly what they are doing. The question is, how smart is that? We'll find out.

But if they think they are going to outsmart people and find that gem in the 3rd or 4th round to be Romo's replacement, I think they need the ductwork in their offices checked. Because something in the air is poisoning their brains.

 

[LandryFan]

Sure, it is all about projection. Projecting how the players in this draft will continue to develop and how the future players will develop in college and then in the NFL. I was not at all suggesting that the Eagles will be correct only that they did look ahead and based their decision to move up, in part, based on what they saw. As I said in another post, only time will tell if they were right or wrong.

Completely agree.

 

[Idgit]

...Yeah, but conversely, there's also the question of how many good quarterbacks were ruined being drafted by incompetent organization's with little talent too. Some guys like Plunkett and Steve Young to name a few went on to win Super Bowls after escaping from bad teams.

Yep, that's definitely true, too.

To be successful with a QB prospect, you pretty much need everything. He needs weapons. He needs protection. He needs coaching. He needs a situation where he can get reps.

And then you have to have a guy with all the tools (or most of them), and with the mental make-up to get better. And no matter how much college evaluation you do, the NFL game is enough different that the best you can do is an imperfect projection of how good he can become when throwing windows are measured in inches instead of yards and timing passes means knowing where both the receiver and the coverage is going to be when the ball arrives even if you can't see it before you release.

It's tough. I"m completely bummed we didn't get a chance this season with the top 4 pick to add a guy. And I'd be ok with reaching for Lynch even, though there are several options I'd prefer to that one still available. But I understand the reasoning here. And it sounds like we did inquire as to the price and decided it was more than we were in a position to pay given however long we've still got Romo.

 

[Stash]

First of all, while Manning was a free agent he was at the end of his career and the only reason he hit free agency was because Indy had the #1 pick and Luck was there. The franchise wanted a new direction. And in reality, Manning is an anomaly in that big time QBs rarely hit free agency.

To say nothing of his salary cost to his team, and his multiple neck surgeries and the question of him playing again. Facts omitted because they would destroy any 'case' attempting to be made.

And are you talking about Brock Osweiler as being a franchise QB?

Yes he is. As laughable as that is, that's exactly what he's doing.

 

[MrPhil]

If you have it I would love to see the breakout of #1 overall picks and how many hit or miss, then the rest of Round 1, then Rounds 2 & 3, then the rest of the draft. The percentage of successful picks is obviously going to be higher the higher the draft choice - but I think the percentages will be something a big chunk of this forum won't like.

For example, even at the #1 overall pick for the last ten years you have wins in Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and (being generous) Jameis Winston. But you also have Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford and JaMarcus Russell. The numbers for QBs picked in the 2nd to 10th overall picks look worse.

Ok, so here are the QBs picked at #1 overall over the past 20 years (sorry for the formatting):

TD INT Yards RTG
Jameis Winston 22 15 4,042 84.2
Andrew Luck 101 55 14,838 85.0
Cam Newton 117 64 18,263 88.3
Sam Bradford 78 52 14,790 81.0
Matthew Stafford 163 98 25,976 85.8
JaMarcus Russell 18 23 4,083 65.2
Alex Smith 142 83 24,344 84.5
Eli Manning 294 199 44,187 83.5
Carson Palmer 259 166 40,036 88.1
David Carr 65 71 14,452 74.9
Michael Vick 133 88 22,464 80.4
Tim Couch 64 67 11,131 75.1
Peyton Manning 539 251 71,940 96.5

Average Yards = 23,888
Low Yards = 4,042 (Jameis Winston)
High Yards = 71,940 (Peyton Manning)