The leaves have fallen, time to sign Prescott

[JoeKing]

The “ waiting on the leaves to fall” is a quote from Jethro referring to he was waiting to see where some of these other contracts Franchise QB’s would sign before beginning negotiations.

Thank you.

 

[Blackrain]

Yeah all the leaves are brown and the sky is gray and I think your Texas dreaming if you think Jerry is going to sign him for 50 million after what he's seen

 

[Beast_from_East]

Yep, but all indications from him are he would prefer to stay here. Much like our owners have maintained their intentions .

We shall see. The local vibe from beat writers is really if a deal isn’t done by the start of season it’s likely he’s on his wait out because a deal couldn’t get done , not because they didn’t want it.

And I’ve maintained I’m not promoting either just providing my take on what they have said .

Yeah, thats a good take bro.

I agree, if a deal is going to get done it has to get done around training camp at the latest. If the season starts and Dak has no extension in place, I think he tests free agency next year and maybe gives the Cowboys a right to match the highest offer he gets.

Will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

 

[Beast_from_East]

The bottomline is : why do we think our owners will do?

This is really the question at hand.

What fans want to happen is irrelevant, its really up to Jerry ultimately to resign Dak or let him walk.

Option A...........let Dak walk and start Lance or a rookie at QB in 2025.
Pro.........Cowboys save a ton of money and salary cap space.
Con........What if Lance or the rookie suck? Jerry and the Cowboys will be a national laughing stock by the media for letting Dak walk if the replacement sucks.

Option B.........pay Dak a market contract at $55-$60 a year.
Pro.........Dak stays the face of the franchise and we probably win enough games to make the playoffs regularly.
Con........Dak probably is not going to get any better than what he is now, so in all liklihood that means no SB win.

Which option is Jerry more likely to think is best, option A or option B???

 

[Beast_from_East]

Yes, based on the market, Dak's contract is in that $50-55MM AAV range and accordingly will carry some large cap hits at some point. Yes, by his peers and the market, his "worth" is that 50-55MM AAV.

But the question is at what point does it become cost prohibitive to sign a QB like that where it becomes more difficult to sign enough quality players around that QB to be enough to put them over the top?

Does Dak or any similar QB eating up around 15-25% of the cap in a given year make sense if that QB also needs a high quality team around him to succeed? There is no doubt that signing a QB to a massive contract like Dak will get has a trickle down effect to the quality and quantity of other players they can sign. I wonder if there is going to be an inflection point here where teams start to think that maybe it makes sense to not eat up 15-25% of their cap in a given year on a good, not great QB and instead, build a super roster and try to win with a mid-level QB eating up much less cap space.

Thats a good point my friend, a team has to really evaluate how they can build a roster around a market value QB.

Obviously the million dollar question is..................who is the replacement if we dont sign our starting QB to a market rate deal?

And here is the problem, or even the fear every team must face in this situation.........what if the replacement is not as good?

You can very quickly go from winning 12 games a year to winning 5-6 games a year if your replacement ends up sucking.

There is no guarantee Lance is any good, that is the problem for Dallas. And you can say good, if he sucks we get a top 5 pick the following year and draft a new QB. But what if that top 5 QB is a bust? There is no guarantee that just because you draft a QB in the top 5 that he will become a franchise QB. There are lots and lots of example of top 5 QBs busting. So, then what? You sucked a year with Lance, now you suck a couple more years with a top 5 pick before you determined he busted, so we are looking at multiple seasons of 5-6 wins now?

You starting to see the problem with the idea of "not paying market". If you have a QB that is good enough to warrant a high-end contract, it is too risky to let him walk. I mean, what teams have let their franchise QBs hit unrestricted free agency that was not coming off a major injury (Brees and Cousins). I honestly cant remember the last time somebody like Dak was allowed to enter free agency, a QB in his prime that was literally runner up to being league MVP.

 

[Beast_from_East]

No contract let him walk Trey Lance will surprise everyone. He will be the future.

But what if he is not?

That is the risk moving on from Dak, there is no guarantee Lance or a rookie will be able to put up numbers anywhere close to Dak (36 TDs, 70% completion rate, 114 QBR).

Now you may be willing to take that risk, but will Jerry?

 

[Beast_from_East]

Well fans...either believe in him or they don;t. So;;;it's a wash.

I guess I'm confused on your point. You earlier said they were sold, and then you say not.

I think this front office is just as cautious/split as the fan base in general

I think you might be 100% correct my friend...........I heard Fisher a month or two back say almost the exact same thing.

Fisher said "there are some at that star that think Dak is worth $50+ a year and some that dont".

Its Fisher so I usually ignore what he says, but this did stick out to me and your post reminded me of that.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Here's your list of backups and their salary in 2023...the internet could be playing me and these numbers not exact...

Andy Dalton – 2/10M with 7M in incentives

Jacoby Brisset – 1/8M with 4M in incentives

Sam Darnold – 1/10M

Teddy Bridgewater – 1/3M

Tyrod Taylor – 2/11M

Jameis Winston – 1/4M

CJ Beathard – 2/4.5M

Marcus Mariota – 1/6M

Mitch Trubisky – 2/5.25M

Jimmy Garappolo – 1/3.178M

Drew Lock – 1/5M

Jarret Stidham – 2/10M

Cooper Rush – 2/5M

Mike White – 2/8M

Easton Stick – 1/2.66M

Blaine Gabbert – 1/1.3M

Kyle Allen – 1/1.2M

Brett Rypien – 1/1.25M

Tim Boyle – 1/1.15M

Jake Browning – 2/1.945M

Who you got as taking us to the Bowl, ya'll?

Nobody on that list is the caliber of Dak (36 TDs, 9 INTs, 70% completion, 114 QBR).

Dak's numbers's even blow away Lawrence and he just got $55 a year. (21 TDs, 14 INTs, 65% completion, 95 QBR)

 

[FanofJerry]

Nobody on that list is the caliber of Dak (36 TDs, 9 INTs, 70% completion, 114 QBR).

Dak's numbers's even blow away Lawrence and he just got $55 a year. (21 TDs, 14 INTs, 65% completion, 95 QBR)

Incoming...

"Dak cant beat certain zones"

"Dak wilts in Playoffs"

"Dak has had 9 years"

"Dak cant throw tight windows"

"Dak's throws are a split second late on certain plays because he is afraid"

"Dak is 31 and old now...lets go younger"

Whatever the excuse of the day is...Dak puts up good numbers and doesnt turn ball over at an elite level.

Im not a fan of the market...but Dak is no slouch. If Dak is overpaid...so is every other QB not named Mahomes. But that is by design...to cause controversy so unreasonable hate can survive.

 

[Diehardblues]

This is really the question at hand.

What fans want to happen is irrelevant, its really up to Jerry ultimately to resign Dak or let him walk.

Option A...........let Dak walk and start Lance or a rookie at QB in 2025.
Pro.........Cowboys save a ton of money and salary cap space.
Con........What if Lance or the rookie suck? Jerry and the Cowboys will be a national laughing stock by the media for letting Dak walk if the replacement sucks.

Option B.........pay Dak a market contract at $55-$60 a year.
Pro.........Dak stays the face of the franchise and we probably win enough games to make the playoffs regularly.
Con........Dak probably is not going to get any better than what he is now, so in all liklihood that means no SB win.

Which option is Jerry more likely to think is best, option A or option B???

Based on everything our ownership has said thus far , I’d say they go with Option B.

They still believe with Prescott (regardless what we believe) they have a playoff contender which has potential to make a deeper run.

The prospect of starting over and the unknown with another QB probably doesn’t look as attractive to them.

Despite fans frustrations or losing belief most teams would probably continue on with a playoff caliber QB and hope to eventually make progress in playoffs.

 

[DuncanIso]

Based on everything our ownership has said thus far , I’d say they go with Option B.

They still believe with Prescott (regardless what we believe) they have a playoff contender which has potential to make a deeper run.

The prospect of starting over and the unknown with another QB probably doesn’t look as attractive to them.

Despite fans frustrations or losing belief most teams would probably continue on with a playoff caliber QB and hope to eventually make progress in playoffs.

That last playoff loss was brutal.

 

[Diehardblues]

But what if he is not?

That is the risk moving on from Dak, there is no guarantee Lance or a rookie will be able to put up numbers anywhere close to Dak (36 TDs, 70% completion rate, 114 QBR).

Now you may be willing to take that risk, but will Jerry?

I’d say no. Despite our frustration in playoffs it’s a more comfortable situation for them than starting over .

 

[Diehardblues]

That last playoff loss was brutal.

Of course but missing playoffs is even worse.

 

[FanofJerry]

That last playoff loss was brutal.

Try and cage one player as at fault for that. Side step two important LB injuries on defense. Lets not talk about coaches not having team prepared.

A lot of things went wrong in that game and there are a lot of excuses to be used on certain players, coaches and team.

Cowboys still have a bunch of talent and a good QB. Didnt Cowboys once again have most Pro-Bowlers?

I dont think a lot of GM's walk away from this if they have anything of value to lose.

 

[JoeKing]

Bottom line, is Dak Prescott good enough to win a Super Bowl. What we fans think about that is irrelevant to what ends up happening. The decision makers would have already given Dak an extension if they believed in him. So that should give us a clue as to what they are thinking. They want to see Trey Lance in action in the preseason. They want to give Dak one last chance to prove he can win in the playoffs. Only they know how much winning is enough to extend Dak. We all have an opinion on that.

 

[Diehardblues]

Thats a good point my friend, a team has to really evaluate how they can build a roster around a market value QB.

Obviously the million dollar question is..................who is the replacement if we dont sign our starting QB to a market rate deal?

And here is the problem, or even the fear every team must face in this situation.........what if the replacement is not as good?

You can very quickly go from winning 12 games a year to winning 5-6 games a year if your replacement ends up sucking.

There is no guarantee Lance is any good, that is the problem for Dallas. And you can say good, if he sucks we get a top 5 pick the following year and draft a new QB. But what if that top 5 QB is a bust? There is no guarantee that just because you draft a QB in the top 5 that he will become a franchise QB. There are lots and lots of example of top 5 QBs busting. So, then what? You sucked a year with Lance, now you suck a couple more years with a top 5 pick before you determined he busted, so we are looking at multiple seasons of 5-6 wins now?

You starting to see the problem with the idea of "not paying market". If you have a QB that is good enough to warrant a high-end contract, it is too risky to let him walk. I mean, what teams have let their franchise QBs hit unrestricted free agency that was not coming off a major injury (Brees and Cousins). I honestly cant remember the last time somebody like Dak was allowed to enter free agency, a QB in his prime that was literally runner up to being league MVP.

Yep

I get everyone’s frustration with Prescott. I feel the same way. It’s been very tough emotionally. But most teams don’t throw away a playoff caliber QB for the unknown.

Now if we hadn’t made the playoffs for a couple years then the argument would be much stronger. Coming off 3 consecutive 12 win seasons and a couple division titles with the regular season numbers he’s put up is not a horrific place to be despite the historic futility and disappointment in playoffs.

 

[Diehardblues]

Bottom line, is Dak Prescott good enough to win a Super Bowl. What we fans think about that is irrelevant to what ends up happening. The decision makers would have already given Dak an extension if they believed in him. So that should give us a clue as to what they are thinking. They want to see Trey Lance in action in the preseason. They want to give Dak one last chance to prove he can win in the playoffs. Only they know how much winning is enough to extend Dak. We all have an opinion on that.

Not necessarily. The fact our owners have waited to see where the Market falls doesn’t translate to they no longer believe in their QB.

That just becomes a talking point to support a narrative . We should wait before drawing those conclusions .

It’s not over yet. If they do resign him before the season begins then how would we access opinions as such?

 

[JoeKing]

Not necessarily. The fact our owners have waited to see where the Market falls doesn’t translate to they no longer believe in their QB.

That just becomes a talking point to support a narrative . We should wait before drawing those conclusions .

It’s not over yet. If they do resign him before the season begins then how would we access opinions as such?

But the market has been reset and Dak still doesn't have a new contract. Use your brain, man. The FO is telling us their intentions by their actions.

 

[SultanOfSix]

TL’s contract just solidified hope for Lance in Jerry’s mind. I don’t think Jerry is even dumb enough to extend Dak with that kind of money due to his average to poor playoff performances. These type of QB extensions mostly come from the team willing to extend their own young QB on their first big pay day, not those who hit the free agent market. All of this talk by some who think Dak can make that much in the free agent market are fooling themselves. He doesn’t have the clout of Aaron Rogers or Payton Manning. He’s more likely only going to be able to get Kirk Cousins’ money, if that.

 

[Diehardblues]

But the market has been reset and Dak still doesn't have a new contract. Use your brain, man. The FO is telling us their intentions by their actions.

The Market was just reset yesterday with Trevor. And there’s a few more they could be waiting on like Tua and Love. Give it a little more time. If a deal hasn’t been struck by end of training camp then we can draw some conclusions.