I’ve never, as a fan, sat down and ironed out the nuances and specifics of cap math. It’s just not an interest for me so I rely on other more knowledgeable board members for this. What does this storm entail exactly? You mean we might not be able to resign Dak?
I will take a stab at laying this out. The numbers I use below come from overthecap.
2020: Base Salary Cap is $198.2M. Dallas’ current cap liabilities are $193.8M and they currently have $23.9M available. Obviously, that math doesn’t add up so they clearly carried over some cap space from 2019 into 2020; I just don’t know how much.
2021: We really don’t know what the actual salary cap will be 2021. By that I mean, historically the cap has increased every year but due to COVID, the 2021 cap could go down. I believe the league and players agreed that it would not drop below $175M. The reason that number is important is that Dallas’ current liabilities for 2021 are $178.5M (43 players).
If they carryover the full $23.9M from this year, then at worst, they will have around $27.4M available.
For the sake of discussion here are the Top 5 players, cap-number-wise for 2021:
1. Demarcus Lawrence ($25M)
2. Amari Cooper ($22M)
3. Zack Martin ($17M)
4. Tyron Smith ($14M)
5. Ezekiel Elliott ($13.7M)
Based on my laymen’s interpretation of the numbers from Overthecap, it is not cost effective to cut any of these players in 2021. Either you don’t gain any cap space or the deadmoney hit would be exorbitant (e.g. $44M for Lawrence). Also, as you will see this does not include Dak because he is not currently under contract for 2021.
In my opinion, the first year that you can make the case financially to cut any of these players would be 2022. If you cut Amari, you save $16M on the cap but incur a $6M deadmoney hit. If you cut Tyron then you save $9.9M on the cap but incur a $5.3M deadmoney hit. Cutting the other players on that list would result in deadmoney hits that are higher than the cap savings.
Looking ahead a little more, we currently have 27 players under contract through 2022 at total cost of approximately $161.5M. In 2023, we have 16 players under contract at a total cost of approximately $144.5M.
So, a lot will depend on what happens with the overall salary cap and what the team does with Dak. Full disclosure, I could be missing something but this is what I am tracking.