The myth of Dak compared to reality

[Melonfeud]

Then you’re looking at it through biased lenses.

Even if we describe his accuracy as “poor” which I disagree with.

The poor guts? The poor leadership? Panicking?

All that was complete nonsense as Dak’s leadership and ability to play well in high pressure situations are some of his best attributes.

Dak also reads the field pretty well for a 3rd year QB. He is just really conservative early in games. His field vision has gotten better.

The footwork/mechanics/pocket presence are the only valid parts of his post. The rest is utter garbage.

*I can dig on what's being laid down

 

[pansophy]

I'd say the part in bold describes the situation perfectly. And there's no way this would be the case if the part above it (that he's an inaccurate passer) were actually true. Logic says inaccurate passers don't suddenly become accurate late in close games. All the best evidence shows that he's conservative for three quarters (more sacks, throwaways, and checkdowns) and then becomes much more aggressive when the game is close in the 4th quarter.

But you have to wonder how much of the late-game success is based on having played it safe up until that point. Nobody really knows the answer to that one, or if that Giants game is anything more than just one great game against a team with nothing to play for.

I'm hopeful he is turning the corner so that he weaknesses aren't debilitating to the offense. If that's true we can win with him.

These threads clinging to random stats as if they prove he is a top 5 QB are killing me though.

 

[JoeKing]

I don't need all those stats the OP presented to tell me Dak is the real deal. The only stat that matters to me is the scoreboard. His career win-loss record tells me he's a winner.

 

[Beast_from_East]

In this research i wanted to use facts to either prove the myth of Dak true or false. I will not be using the "eye" bias but instead lay out the facts. I used Pro Football reference for most of this research. Folks like to say Dak stepped into the greatest position for a rookie QB ( they say rookie because of the offense that QBs like Mahomes have but not as rookies cause they sat on the bench). I also didn't use guys like Brady because he only threw 3 passes as a rookie........only completed 1 of them so 33.3% competition haha.

First i will list these QBs that people have said are better than Dak with some of the best players on their team and than at the end give all their stats. These are rookie stats and teams only.


Peyton Manning QB
Had Marshall Faulk HB and Marvin Harrison WR, didn't have a terrible OL but wasn't great either.

Andy Dalton QB (Probowl as rookie)
Cedric Benson HB, A.J Green WR, Jermaine Gresham TE ( was a probowler that year and was pretty good at this time), also had a decent OL. Thats a really good situation for a rookie QB.

Matt Ryan QB
Michael Turner RB (All-pro that year), Roddy White WR (Probowl that year) and a pretty good OL although none made the probowl that year.

Andrew Luck QB (Probowl as a rookie)
Had Reggie Wayne WR and that's pretty much it.

Russell Wilson QB (Probowl as a rookie)
Marshawn Lynch RB (All-pro), Sidney Rice WR, Golden Tate WR, Doug Baldwin WR, Zach Miller TE and had a really good OL with 2 being probowlers and 1 All-pro. Safe to say Wilson had a much better team as a rookie QB, better coach and by far a better defense than Dak had as a rookie.

Cam Newton QB (Probowl as rookie)
Steve Smith WR, Greg Olson TE, Jeremy Shockey TE, DeAngelo Williams RB and a decent OL.

Ben Roethlisberger QB
Hines Ward WR, Marvel Smith OT, Alan Faneca LG (All-pro that year), Jeff Hartings C (All-pro that year) Jerome Bettis RB. Here is another case where it's pretty clear Ben had a much better team as a rookie QB. In fact this was most likely the best situation for any QB in league history. He also benefited from a great defense and Hall of Fame coaching. By the way his production decreased the next 2 years like some say about Dak but thats false as well.

Jameis Winston QB (Probowl as rookie)
Doug Martin RB (All-pro that year), Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and a pretty good OL but only 1 going to the probowl that year.

Deshaun Watson QB
Lamar Miller RB, DeAndre Hopkins WR, Will Fuller WR and had an ok OL. Only played 6 games that year because he got injured but was tearing up the league in those first 6 games.....helps having the talent he had as well.

Baker Mayfield QB
Nick Chubb RB, Duke Johnson RB, Carlos Hyde RB, Jarvis Landry WR, David Njoku TE and a really good OL. I know it's the Browns but this is really good talent on offense for a rookie QB.

Dan Marino QB (Probowl as a rookie)
Mark Duper WR, Bob Kuechenberg LG, Dwight Stephenson C, Ed Newman RG and also had 2 great backs in Tony Nathan and FB Andra Franklin. This is a really good offense for a rookie QB. Thought it would be fun to use Marino because his rookie season is a top 10 season for rookies.

Dak Prescott QB (Probowl as rookie)
Ezekiel Elliott RB (leading rusher), Jason Witten TE, Dez Bryant WR and 3 all-pro OL. This is a good situation for a rookie QB but it's not the best. OL is the strength but Dez and Witten were on the decline.




Now let's look at these QBs stats and see how they shape up against each other.

Peyton Manning 3-13 record.
56.7% completion. 3739 yards passing. 26 TDs 28 INTs. 6.5 ypa. 233 ypg. 71.2 rating. 1 game winning drive and 1--4th quarter comeback.

Ben Roethlisberger 13-0 record.
66.4% completion. 2621 yards passing. 17 TDs 11 INTs. 8.9 ypa. 187 ypg. 98.1 rating. 5 game winning drives. 4--4th quarter comebacks

Russell Wilson 11-5 record.
64.1% completion. 3118 yards passing. 26 TDs 10 INTs. 7.9 ypa. 194 ypg. 100 rating. 72.7 QBR. 4 Game winning drives. 3--4th quarter cornerback.

Andrew Luck 11-5 record.
54.1% completion. 4374 yards passing. 23 TDs 18 INTs. 7.0 ypa. 273.4 ypg. 76.5 rating. 65.6 QBR. 7 game winning drives. 4--4th quarter comebacks.

Deshaun Watson 3-3 record.
61.8% completion. 1699 yards passing. 19 TDs 8 INTs. 8.3 ypa. 242.7 ypg. 103 rating. 83.6 QBR. 0 game winning drives. 4--4th quarter comebacks.

Matt Ryan 11-5 record.
61.1% completion. 3440 yards passing. 16 TDs 11 INTs. 7.9 ypa. 215 ypg. 87.7 rating. 68.5 QBR. 4 game winning drives. 2--4th quarter comebacks.

Jameis Winston 6-10 record.
58.3% completion. 4042 yards passing. 22 TDs 15 INTs. 7.6 ypa. 252.6 ypg. 84.2 rating. 61.1 QBR. 3 game winning drives. 2--4th quarter comebacks.

Cam Newton 6-10 record.
60% completion. 4051 yards passing. 21 TDs 17 INTs. 7.8 ypa. 253.2 ypg. 84.5 rating. 58.1 QBR. 1 game winning drive. 1--4th quarter comeback.

Andy Dalton 9-7 record
58.1% completion. 3398 yards passing. 20 TDs 13 INTs. 6.6 ypa. 212.4 ypg. 80.4 rating. 46.9 QBR. 4 game winning drives. 4--4th quarter comebacks.

Dan Marino 7-2 record.
58.4% completion. 2210 yards passing. 20 TDs 6 INTs. 7.5 ypa. 200.9 ypg. 96 rating. 2 game winning drives. 1--4th quarter comebacks.

Carson Wentz 7-9 record.
62.8% completion. 3782 yards passing. 16 TDs 14 INTs. 6.2 ypa. 236.4 ypg. 79.3 rating. 49.4 QBR. 1 game winning drive. 1--4th quarter comeback.

Dak Prescott 13-3 record.
67.8% completion. 3667 yards passing. 23 TDs 4 INTs. 8.0 ypa. 229.2 ypg. 104.9 rating. 78.8 QBR.
5 game winning drives. 5--4th quarter comebacks.





So as you can see Dak hasnt had the best situation as a rookie QB and beats most every rookie QB in every stat. So the myth these doubters and haters keep spewing from their mouths about Dak is just that. It's false and a blatant lie. For all the Dak supporters y'all already knew this and are ahead of the others.

The problem is not Dak's rookie year, everybody agrees it was one of, if not the best, rookie season a QB has ever had. The problem has been his play following that season. What do I mean?

His QB rating was 104 his rookie year, he has never broke 100 since.

His TD/INT ratio was 22/4 as a rookie...……...again, has never come close to that mark since.

Fumbles have gone through the roof...………….he lead the NFL with 12 fumbles last year, worst in the league for a starting QB.

And the big one, 3rd down...……….despite having the 10th most pocket time in the league on 3rd down, he is around 25th in conversion rate. Typically this is because he checks the ball down short of the sticks. It looks good on the stat sheet as a completion, yet results in a punt. That is why you just cant look at completion percent for a QB, you have to look at the situation. What good is an 8 yard completion on 3rd and 10?

That is why Dak can have a completion percentage around 67%, one of the best in the NFL, yet be one of the worst QBs in the league converting 3rd downs, 25th. Look, I am not a Dak hater and I want the team to resign him, but to say he has not had problems since his rookie year is not being honest. His single biggest problem is not being able to convert on third downs. It lowers the scoring average as your offense has less plays since less possessions. For 2018, Dallas was around 23rd in scoring offense as a result, that is why the offensive coordinator got fired. Not saying it was all Dak's fault, be his play was a significant reason the scoring offense was 23rd. As a rookie, I believe it was in the top 10 if I remember correctly?

 

[Melonfeud]

So according to your proof Johnny Hekker is #1 in YPA by a large margin.

According to the stats Johnny Hekker is better than Dak. We need to trade Dak for Johnny Hekker.

Just so ya know my bro! ,,,That heaping mound of @gjkoeppen you inadvertently got on yer fashionable footwear?,,,as it don't just wash off by any current means available within this planets known dimensional physical casing-liners,,, & he's a mite clingy as a 8 armed hydrophobic love forsaken octopus,,, yer' prolly just gonna have to just take up palm skinning/ tree climbing activities to facilitate its eventual wearing away,,,er,,, just saying, ya know?


,,,good luck!

 

[PUSHfold]

That looks like a lot of work went into preaching to the choir about his rookie season. He had a great rookie season.

However, what about when he lost Elliott the following season or started off without Cooper this past season?

I always laugh when people bring up "what about when he lost Elliot" because this situation didn't only include Elliot it included one of the best tackles in the game and was the same year we lost our LG to Denver. It's kind of a joke really to bring up this tiny sample size which also included losing Tron and claim Dak's not a good QB...I'd love to see Chaz Green blocking for any QB and see how they perform. A traffic cone would do a better job blocking.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Dak stats decreased in his 2nd year because of suspensions and injuries to key players around him.

RG3 was mostly because of injury. Once RG3 started to fade, he was such a poor leader that no one would back him. Dak kept the troops together and they rallied around him.

I love how if Dak is great he's great. If Dak struggles it's be ause of the team.

Must be fantastic to live that life.

 

[Cowboys1fan]

dak Is good and I’m glad to have him. But you’re comparing oranges and apples with a 1996 season vs a 2016 season. Game has changed drastically from most the qbs you listed

 

[Cowboys1fan]

I like Dak but he must be more accurate and not be scared to push the ball down field. He also needs to take off running more when there is wide open field for easy gains. That’s one of his greatest strengths

 

[Melonfeud]

I love how if Dak is great he's great. If Dak struggles it's be ause of the team.

Must be fantastic to live that life.

,,,er,,,the next time you lead me to the flowing waters of elevated knowledge is currently being tethered at?,,, Thru my gratitude ,I'll attempt to impart upon you about that whole duality of man,concept with the half his nature wigging out in Caine's vector, all the while the mildly murdered dead half of able seethingly plots revenge,,, er,,, if I'm feeling talkative on that occasion,,, mind you,ya know

 

[RoboQB]

Here's my proof, where's your?

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...gory=PASSING&d-447263-s=PASSING_AVERAGE_YARDS

Your link shows the post season stats. Not the regular season stats.
You're incorrect here.

 

[RoboQB]

What is this supposed to be proof of, that you can’t read? I don’t even see yards per completion as a column.
I mean, use your head. Does it make any sense that Dak was THIRD in yards per completion? Dak?!?

It's the 'AVG' column, he's referencing.
However, those are post season stats, not regular season stats.

 

[Melonfeud]

I like Dak but he must be more accurate and not be scared to push the ball down field. He also needs to take off running more when there is wide open field for easy gains. That’s one of his greatest strengths

I'll bet you bro,the Crisp $10 green mug of an Alexander Hamilton, that the directly descended orders of denuded visual lameness are generated straight down from SKY BOX COMMAND , cuz' that avenue of attack could wrinkle up the long term / over the rainbow broad sweeping view that only AUTHORIZED SKY BOX COMMAND PERSONAL are privy to,,,ya! I got a solid Yankee sawbuck sez it's so,,,ya know

,,,er,,,

 

[WillieBeamen]

Then you’re looking at it through biased lenses.

Even if we describe his accuracy as “poor” which I disagree with.

The poor guts? The poor leadership? Panicking?

All that was complete nonsense as Dak’s leadership and ability to play well in high pressure situations are some of his best attributes.

Dak also reads the field pretty well for a 3rd year QB. He is just really conservative early in games. His field vision has gotten better.

The footwork/mechanics/pocket presence are the only valid parts of his post. The rest is utter garbage.

I can say youre looking at it from a biased lens as well

Poor Accuracy: Really? Do I really have to delve into this? Did you ignore that 20 min long video of those Dak throws to Dez? Ima just leave you with this here

Poor Leadership: Telling your star receiver you need to leave the ball in his facemask so he can catch it is poor leadership. Especially when said receiver hasnt uttered a word about his QBs poor play

Panicking: Youre going to tell me with a straight face that Dak is calm in the pocket under pressure? How often do you see Dak step up in the pocket when theres pressure? He constantly does that goofy spin move where He turns away from his receivers.

Its sad that Dak is free of criticism from you stans

 

[Johnny23]

I don't need all those stats the OP presented to tell me Dak is the real deal. The only stat that matters to me is the scoreboard. His career win-loss record tells me he's a winner.

Really now then why is he 9-12 against playoff teams in his career which includes a 1-2 record in the playoffs.

How let's dig deeper to the clutch winner in Dak in his college career against Ranked teams in the SEC: 5-12 including a Orange Bowl loss to Georgia Tech that was non-competitive.

In these games he looks cringeworthy and it comes down to Zeke putting the S on his chest the majority of the time we win these games. Outside a couple of games.

Dak does just enough to beat the average to poor teams as Dak's 24-6 against non-playoff teams.

Now the Dak supporters bring up Tom Brady a ton because he supposed dinks and dunks. Even though he is less risk averse than Dak and will challenge the seams and the middle of the field when he has the chance to.

Tom is 19-4 against playoff teams during the past three seasons including two championship rings. His record in the regular season against playoff teams is 11-3. 8-1 in the postseason.

The only beats up on a weak division narrative that all Dak supporters spout off. New England isn't Indy before Luck blew up his shoulder were they never best playoff teams . They are whipping up on everybody.

Dak wins, Dak's clutch. Dak's on the level of Dan Marino's and Tom Brady that's the myth everyone who agrees with the op went awol can't wrap their heads around the fact he caught lightening in a bottle in 2016 and still showed his true colors. Back breaking turnovers when he does fumble or throw a pick. An inability to score touchdowns in the red zone. His inability to convert 3rd downs against top teams has held us back against Green Bay and LA I'm both divisional round loses.

 

[Swagger]

Dak's Oline was incredible that rookie year. There is no denying that Dak had as good a situation as you could want for a rookie. I see no point in denying that or softening that. What Dak proved his rookie year is if you put quality players around him, he can lead and play great. EVEN AS A ROOKIE.

At this point, the Dak haters have all been proven dead wrong. This year will be even more embarrassing for them.

The Dak haters have all been proven dead wrong - firstly, what constitutes being a "Dak hater"?

Secondly, I don't really understand how not making the play offs in 2017 with a quality all round roster is proving people wrong. And don't even get onto the Elliot missed a few games argument, that's the entire point that people who question the wisdom of paying Prescott an extortionate amount of money are making - a franchise QB would have overcome a bit of adversity and led this team to the play offs in 2017. Prescott didn't.

Brian Hoyer would have led this team to the play offs in 2016, that roster was absolutely loaded with talent on offense coupled with a decent enough defense in 2016 (top 15)

We have had a top 10 defense the last two seasons (top 5 last season in my opinion) so this team should be making the play offs every season since Prescott has been the QB and should do next season. So much talent compared with previous seasons.

 

[JoeKing]

Really now then why is he 9-12 against playoff teams in his career which includes a 1-2 record in the playoffs.

How let's dig deeper to the clutch winner in Dak in his college career against Ranked teams in the SEC: 5-12 including a Orange Bowl loss to Georgia Tech that was non-competitive.

In these games he looks cringeworthy and it comes down to Zeke putting the S on his chest the majority of the time we win these games. Outside a couple of games.

Dak does just enough to beat the average to poor teams as Dak's 24-6 against non-playoff teams.

Now the Dak supporters bring up Tom Brady a ton because he supposed dinks and dunks. Even though he is less risk averse than Dak and will challenge the seams and the middle of the field when he has the chance to.

Tom is 19-4 against playoff teams during the past three seasons including two championship rings. His record in the regular season against playoff teams is 11-3. 8-1 in the postseason.

The only beats up on a weak division narrative that all Dak supporters spout off. New England isn't Indy before Luck blew up his shoulder were they never best playoff teams . They are whipping up on everybody.

Dak wins, Dak's clutch. Dak's on the level of Dan Marino's and Tom Brady that's the myth everyone who agrees with the op went awol can't wrap their heads around the fact he caught lightening in a bottle in 2016 and still showed his true colors. Back breaking turnovers when he does fumble or throw a pick. An inability to score touchdowns in the red zone. His inability to convert 3rd downs against top teams has held us back against Green Bay and LA I'm both divisional round loses.

Yeah, you got him so figured out in 3 short NFL seasons. You're going to hate the crazy money the Cowboys give up to keep him.

 

[Hadenough]

wow, typical Dak lover response...this thread and debate has nothing to do with getting a contract or not and what amount....you sound bitter

There is absolutely no reason for Dallas to sign Dak right now. They are in control

The problem is not Dak's rookie year, everybody agrees it was one of, if not the best, rookie season a QB has ever had. The problem has been his play following that season. What do I mean?

His QB rating was 104 his rookie year, he has never broke 100 since.

His TD/INT ratio was 22/4 as a rookie...……...again, has never come close to that mark since.

Fumbles have gone through the roof...………….he lead the NFL with 12 fumbles last year, worst in the league for a starting QB.

And the big one, 3rd down...……….despite having the 10th most pocket time in the league on 3rd down, he is around 25th in conversion rate. Typically this is because he checks the ball down short of the sticks. It looks good on the stat sheet as a completion, yet results in a punt. That is why you just cant look at completion percent for a QB, you have to look at the situation. What good is an 8 yard completion on 3rd and 10?

That is why Dak can have a completion percentage around 67%, one of the best in the NFL, yet be one of the worst QBs in the league converting 3rd downs, 25th. Look, I am not a Dak hater and I want the team to resign him, but to say he has not had problems since his rookie year is not being honest. His single biggest problem is not being able to convert on third downs. It lowers the scoring average as your offense has less plays since less possessions. For 2018, Dallas was around 23rd in scoring offense as a result, that is why the offensive coordinator got fired. Not saying it was all Dak's fault, be his play was a significant reason the scoring offense was 23rd. As a rookie, I believe it was in the top 10 if I remember correctly?

I like this so much do you mind if I plagiarize this important information and post it all over this forum for the people that selectively skipped reading this? I actually think if Jerry and Stephen read this it would cost Dak and his agent millions!

 

[Captain-Crash]

Scott was good enough in Dak's rookie year. Maybe once defense figured out check down Charlie, they wasn't much Scott to do with him.. naw... "everybody was hurt, wr's ,rb's sucked, and don't forget the te's".

lol.. this year it will KM as the excuse. not check down charlie.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I love how if Dak is great he's great. If Dak struggles it's be ause of the team.

Must be fantastic to live that life.

Not really. Its just simple analysis. The nature of the QB position. Im actually giving a lot of the credit to the line and the players around him. But many of you are too biased to realize that.

He is more reliant on those around him at this point. The difference between me and you is that I understand that is normal. You think the guy should be some fully developed in his prime QB right now.

It shows a lack of understanding and a biased.