I think the 2023 team really could be built to go the distance. The defense will likely be among the best in the league and should keep Dallas in pretty much every game against any opponent. If Mazi Smith turns out to be an impact starter, it will go a long way toward this unit becoming truly shutdown. The offense is pretty loaded on paper. Lamb, Cooks, Gallup will be among the leagues best WR trios when healthy, and our starting offensive line is stacked (again when healthy). This team is pretty much on par with Philly in my opinion and should have a punchers chance of winning the division. Anything less than a divisional playoff game would be a massive disappointment, with an NFC Championship appearance not being unreasonable to expect.
If the wheels are going to come off this thing, I believe it will be for a few specific reasons.
#1) OL injuries - I'm talking long term injuries to 2-3 starters. If you lose Tyron + another starter or two, this team is really going to be in some trouble. Dak has never been particularly good under duress, so it is not unreasonable to think the offense has the potential to turn into a total mess.
#2) Dak's turnovers - Say what you want about Dak's ints last season, but there is no denying the fact that based on his entire career, his int rate last season was highly anomalous. Based on history, his turnovers should regress to the mean, but if he continues to throw picks at the same rate this season, this team will probably still win quote a few regular season games, but will be hard pressed to go any further than 1 and done in the playoffs.
#3) The LB unit - This LB group is extremely under experienced, with LVE really being the only player with any proven NFL production. Damone Clark was OK last season, but needs to take the next step. Cox, Harper, and Overshown are pretty much complete unknowns. If LVE goes down, you are left with a dangerously thin linebacker unit. I hope they bring in a cheap veteran that can play some snaps, but until then, LB could be an achilles heel.
With all of this being said, I believe the reasons to be hopeful outweigh the reasons for concern. The Cowboys returned nearly every starter from a back to back 12-win roster, they added two pro bowl level veteran starters in Cooks and Gilmore, they used their first round pick to fix a perennial position of weakness at DT, and the NFC is still totally wide open. Dallas should be right there with Philly and SF at the top of the conference. There is no reason to think they can't take the next step this season and reach an NFCCG for the first time in nearly 30 years.