CFZ The recent history of drafting a RB in the 1st round

[G2]

When you need to fill positions Dallas does, RBs drafted early is silly. I could see if you're a team that is only a RB away, sure. But that's not the case. And we've seen how drafting and extending a RB can slow your progress.

 

[ghst187]

Just depends on who is available. I want Jalin Hyatt but I fear his 40 time at the combine will ensure he doesn’t last to our pick. I like Gibbs from Alabama too. Think he is going to be a burner. I suspect all three of him, Hyatt, and BR will go in the first. I don’t think it’s necessarily bad to take a RB in round 1. I mean I don’t think it’s that common to get a guy like Pollard in the third and have him light it up for 12 TDs and be a dynamic playmaker who is your best offensive threat. If you think there’s a guy like that in round 1, not a bad use of a pick IMO. Zeke wasn’t a bad pick when it was made. They just bombed giving him a second contract.

 

[Cowpolk]

Drafting a running back, in this day and age is the first round is beyond stupid.

Kinda agree If they do not go early they will still be drafted and he great ones would still get their money. I think drafting RB's with high picks will never stop it is just the way things are done by a lot of teams

 

[Bobhaze]

When you need to fill positions Dallas does, RBs drafted early is silly. I could see if you're a team that is only a RB away, sure. But that's not the case. And we've seen how drafting and extending a RB can slow your progress.

Agreed. And the short career effectiveness RBs have compared to other positions is a huge reason it’s not a good decision to commit early first round capital to a guy who five years after drafting him is nearly washed up.

By taking a RB early in round one, you are also almost compelled to not give up on that big an investment. The running back by committee that most teams use these days is partly a response to not being committed to a “bell cow“ RB who eats up a ton of cap space.

And while Dak is clearly not a great QB and had too many bad games this year, he can be good enough if he has a better supporting cast including a great D. I‘m not a Dak worshipper, but I also think it’s crazy to think of just starting over at QB like we did after Troy. I would still draft a QB at least every other year. You never know when one of them develops into a starter or great trade bait.

 

[Hoofbite]

I just don't see the longevity at the position to make it worth it. After contract 1, you're looking at 2-3 more years of productivity before the decline kicks in.

So you draft a guy and sign a second contract and by the end of year 6 or 7, he's used goods.

 

[cnuball21]

Below is a chart of all the RBs selected in the first round since 2012. Looking at this list can quickly explain why drafting a RB, especially early in round 1 is probably not the best use of draft capital.

Rd Year Pick

​

1​	2021​	24​	24​	Najee Harris​	Steelers​	Alabama​
1	2021​	25​	25​	Travis Etienne​	Jaguars​	Clemson​
1	2020​	32​	32​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire​	Chiefs​	Louisiana State​
1	2019​	24​	24​	Josh Jacobs​	Raiders​	Alabama​
1	2018​	2​	2​	Saquon Barkley​	Giants​	Penn State​
1	2018​	27​	27​	Rashaad Penny​	Seahawks​	San Diego State​
1	2018​	31​	31​	Sony Michel​	Patriots​	Georgia​
1	2017​	4​	4​	Leonard Fournette​	Jaguars​	Louisiana State​
1	2017​	8​	8​	Christian McCaffrey​	Panthers​	Stanford​
1	2016​	4​	4​	Ezekiel Elliott​	Cowboys​	Ohio State​
1	2015​	10​	10​	Todd Gurley​	Rams​	Georgia​
1	2015​	15​	15​	Melvin Gordon​	Chargers​	Wisconsin​
1	2012​	3​	3​	Trent Richardson​	Browns​	Alabama​
1	2012​	31​	31​	Doug Martin​	Buccaneers​	Boise State​
1	2012​	32​	32​	David Wilson​	Giants​	Virginia Tech​

Of the 15 first round RBs selected in round one in the last 11 drafts, only Zeke Elliott (2016, 2018) and Josh Jacobs (2022) have led the NFL in rushing in a season. The years 2013-14, not a single team selected a RB in round one.

And when looking at leading rusher stats the last 5 seasons, other than in 2018, first round RBs are not exactly killing it. In facts round 2 RBs are the most productive.

TOP 3 LEADING RUSHERS IN NFL BY YEAR (and round drafted)

• 2022- Josh Jacobs (rd 1), Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2)
• 2021- Jonathan Taylor (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Joe Mixon (rd 2)
• 2020- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Dalvin Cook (rd 2), Jonathan Taylor rd 2)
• 2019- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Christian McCaffrey (rd 1)
• 2018- Ezekiel Elliott (rd 1), Saquon Barkley (rd 1), Todd Gurley (rd 1)

Looks like drafting a RB in round 2 is a better option than round 1 based on recent history.

I’d argue it’s one of the worst moves in the draft you can do…

Drafting a RB in the first is awful, awful roster management.

 

[kskboys]

I don't think that RBs are worthless, by any means, but I get the argument for not drafting them super high. In fact, one of my first priorities in Dallas is locking up Pollard, somehow. I do think he is a key ingredient in having a successful offense.

Did Gurley win one? I meant Super Bowl winners, but easily could have overlooked one in the list that won a ring.

No, just made one. As did Hellaire.

I don't think you should reduce the parameters of failure to winning a super bowl. You would be counting out a ton of great players at all positions.

 

[kskboys]

And look at the teams that have drafted a RB in the top 5 the last decade…none of them have even made a conference championship:

• 2012- Trent Richardson- Browns, Round 1, pick 3. Zero playoff wins
• 2016- Ezekiel Elliott- Cowboys, Round 1, pick 4. Two playoff wins in 7 seasons
• 2017-Leonard Fournette- Jaguars, Round 1, pick 4. Zero playoff wins with jags; did win SB with Bucs in 2021.
• 2018- Saquon Barkley- giants, round 1, pick 3. Zero playoff wins In 5 seasons

Taking a RB in the top 5 is not a good investment.

Now look at who the teams are.

I agree w/ you, but don't agree with the parallel.

 

[mattjames2010]

Using rushing leader and Super Bowl victories as a way to justify not taking an RB in the first round is stupid.

The reason it's bad investment to take RBs in the first round simply comes down to RBs having very little longevity in the league. And when RBs fall off, they don't do it gradually, they fall hard. I guarantee if you go back through the drafts and look at who was available on the board when those teams took RB, you can make a better case that they should have traded out of that spot or there was another player at a different position of need they could have drafted.

 

[G2]

The average career length of a RB is 2.5 years.

 

[kskboys]

The average career length of a RB is 2.5 years.

Does that count the ones who aren't good enough to make it? What's the career length of starting quality RB's?

 

[CowboysLakerBamaFan]

A counter point to that is that this year's draft is so weak that our no.26 pick is probably going to be a second round grading.
If a RB is BPA then take him.

What? This draft is insanely deep! Look at the DLine talent available.

Who in the world told you to think that and repeat that?

 

[kskboys]

There is value in taking a RB late 1st or 2nd round, and taking one top 10 is generally foolish.

Miles Sanders was a 2nd, and he's a big part of the Eagles success.

Joe Mixon is a big part of Bengals success last two years, 2nd round.

Thing is, people are always flailing at a 100% way to judge things. And it just doesn't work. Different RB's dictate different draft selections. McCaffrey in the first was not a mistake, neither was Jacobs. Chubb was not a mistake in the 2nd. Not their fault their teams failed to build around them.

 

[G2]

Does that count the ones who aren't good enough to make it? What's the career length of starting quality RB's?

It's length of career, so they would have had to make it. And it's the lowest average among all positions. Which is really the point of not drafting RBs early or lengthy extensions.

 

[G2]

There is value in taking a RB late 1st or 2nd round, and taking one top 10 is generally foolish.

Miles Sanders was a 2nd, and he's a big part of the Eagles success.

Joe Mixon is a big part of Bengals success last two years, 2nd round.

Thing is, people are always flailing at a 100% way to judge things. And it just doesn't work. Different RB's dictate different draft selections. McCaffrey in the first was not a mistake, neither was Jacobs. Chubb was not a mistake in the 2nd. Not their fault their teams failed to build around them.

Sanders didn't even break 1,000 yards or double digit TDs until this season, year 4. Now his contract is up. He got a substantially higher amount of attempts. Kind of a waste of an early pick if you ask me. Like I've said before, unless you're a RB away.

 

[CowboyoWales]

What? This draft is insanely deep! Look at the DLine talent available.

Who in the world told you to think that and repeat that?

Brugler, Zuerlein and Kiper
www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4uqC-i8kzc

Your turn "Deep"??? The only "Deep" appears to be RB and TE.

 

[kskboys]

Sanders didn't even break 1,000 yards or double digit TDs until this season, year 4. Now his contract is up. He got a substantially higher amount of attempts. Kind of a waste of an early pick if you ask me. Like I've said before, unless you're a RB away.

Unless they win the super bowl. Especially if he comes up huge, which he often does.

Sanders had less playing time before this year because he wasn't good in the passing game. Guess he got better?

 

[G2]

Unless they win the super bowl. Especially if he comes up huge, which he often does.

Sanders had less playing time before this year because he wasn't good in the passing game. Guess he got better?

No, this was his worst season receiving in his career and it's not even close. 78 yards/0 TDs is better?
Doesn't equate to anything. You picked one RB who's in the SB, there are tons of examples of them, more often, not making THAT big a difference. There will always be outliers.
And now his contract is up.

 

[G2]

Brugler, Zuerlein and Kiper
www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4uqC-i8kzc

Your turn "Deep"??? The only "Deep" appears to be RB and TE.

And that's a big if, in my opinion. The masses tend to go all in on some players. It will be interesting.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

The last RB drafted in the first round to make the NFL HOF was Marshall Faulk, drafted in round 1 in 1994.

https://www.nfl.com/videos/ladainian-tomlinson-s-hall-of-fame-speech-759601