CFZ The recent history of drafting a RB in the 1st round

[kskboys]

No, this was his worst season receiving in his career and it's not even close. 78 yards/0 TDs is better?
Doesn't equate to anything. You picked one RB who's in the SB, there are tons of examples of them, more often, not making THAT big a difference. There will always be outliers.
And now his contract is up.

Bad argument. There are tons of players at every position that don't make THAT big of a difference.

I had not idea. I'm not an Eagles fan, so I don't pay that much attention to every player on their team.

 

[xwalker]

Below is a chart of all the RBs selected in the first round since 2012. Looking at this list can quickly explain why drafting a RB, especially early in round 1 is probably not the best use of draft capital.

Rd Year Pick

​

1​	2021​	24​	24​	Najee Harris​	Steelers​	Alabama​
1	2021​	25​	25​	Travis Etienne​	Jaguars​	Clemson​
1	2020​	32​	32​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire​	Chiefs​	Louisiana State​
1	2019​	24​	24​	Josh Jacobs​	Raiders​	Alabama​
1	2018​	2​	2​	Saquon Barkley​	Giants​	Penn State​
1	2018​	27​	27​	Rashaad Penny​	Seahawks​	San Diego State​
1	2018​	31​	31​	Sony Michel​	Patriots​	Georgia​
1	2017​	4​	4​	Leonard Fournette​	Jaguars​	Louisiana State​
1	2017​	8​	8​	Christian McCaffrey​	Panthers​	Stanford​
1	2016​	4​	4​	Ezekiel Elliott​	Cowboys​	Ohio State​
1	2015​	10​	10​	Todd Gurley​	Rams​	Georgia​
1	2015​	15​	15​	Melvin Gordon​	Chargers​	Wisconsin​
1	2012​	3​	3​	Trent Richardson​	Browns​	Alabama​
1	2012​	31​	31​	Doug Martin​	Buccaneers​	Boise State​
1	2012​	32​	32​	David Wilson​	Giants​	Virginia Tech​

Of the 15 first round RBs selected in round one in the last 11 drafts, only Zeke Elliott (2016, 2018) and Josh Jacobs (2022) have led the NFL in rushing in a season. The years 2013-14, not a single team selected a RB in round one.

And when looking at leading rusher stats the last 5 seasons, other than in 2018, first round RBs are not exactly killing it. In facts round 2 RBs are the most productive.

TOP 3 LEADING RUSHERS IN NFL BY YEAR (and round drafted)

• 2022- Josh Jacobs (rd 1), Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2)
• 2021- Jonathan Taylor (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Joe Mixon (rd 2)
• 2020- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Dalvin Cook (rd 2), Jonathan Taylor rd 2)
• 2019- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Christian McCaffrey (rd 1)
• 2018- Ezekiel Elliott (rd 1), Saquon Barkley (rd 1), Todd Gurley (rd 1)

Looks like drafting a RB in round 2 is a better option than round 1 based on recent history.

Your analysis: Christian McCaffrey sucks.

Just stop posting this garbage.

 

[jterrell]

Below is a chart of all the RBs selected in the first round since 2012. Looking at this list can quickly explain why drafting a RB, especially early in round 1 is probably not the best use of draft capital.

Rd Year Pick

​

1​	2021​	24​	24​	Najee Harris​	Steelers​	Alabama​
1	2021​	25​	25​	Travis Etienne​	Jaguars​	Clemson​
1	2020​	32​	32​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire​	Chiefs​	Louisiana State​
1	2019​	24​	24​	Josh Jacobs​	Raiders​	Alabama​
1	2018​	2​	2​	Saquon Barkley​	Giants​	Penn State​
1	2018​	27​	27​	Rashaad Penny​	Seahawks​	San Diego State​
1	2018​	31​	31​	Sony Michel​	Patriots​	Georgia​
1	2017​	4​	4​	Leonard Fournette​	Jaguars​	Louisiana State​
1	2017​	8​	8​	Christian McCaffrey​	Panthers​	Stanford​
1	2016​	4​	4​	Ezekiel Elliott​	Cowboys​	Ohio State​
1	2015​	10​	10​	Todd Gurley​	Rams​	Georgia​
1	2015​	15​	15​	Melvin Gordon​	Chargers​	Wisconsin​
1	2012​	3​	3​	Trent Richardson​	Browns​	Alabama​
1	2012​	31​	31​	Doug Martin​	Buccaneers​	Boise State​
1	2012​	32​	32​	David Wilson​	Giants​	Virginia Tech​

Of the 15 first round RBs selected in round one in the last 11 drafts, only Zeke Elliott (2016, 2018) and Josh Jacobs (2022) have led the NFL in rushing in a season. The years 2013-14, not a single team selected a RB in round one.

And when looking at leading rusher stats the last 5 seasons, other than in 2018, first round RBs are not exactly killing it. In facts round 2 RBs are the most productive.

TOP 3 LEADING RUSHERS IN NFL BY YEAR (and round drafted)

• 2022- Josh Jacobs (rd 1), Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2)
• 2021- Jonathan Taylor (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Joe Mixon (rd 2)
• 2020- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Dalvin Cook (rd 2), Jonathan Taylor rd 2)
• 2019- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Christian McCaffrey (rd 1)
• 2018- Ezekiel Elliott (rd 1), Saquon Barkley (rd 1), Todd Gurley (rd 1)

Looks like drafting a RB in round 2 is a better option than round 1 based on recent history.

The bigger point IMO is none of those guys have been good "VALUES" on their 2nd contracts.
And if you shouldn't give a guy a second contract, you probably shouldn't draft him top 15 of round 1.

I am OK with a RB at 26 because it is 26. Talent-wise that isn't a true R1 graded guy.

 

[jterrell]

Your analysis: Christian McCaffrey sucks.

Just stop posting this garbage.

He kinda does, lol.
I mean he was the pre-eminent Charlotte Panther as the franchise tanked.

He was special for 2 years of his career.
He was pick 8 overall which is nuts high.

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

unreal. hoping we don't return to the well this year. bijan or not, i'm not interested

Bijan is a Longhorn. Thus soft.

 

[xwalker]

He kinda does, lol.
I mean he was the pre-eminent Charlotte Panther as the franchise tanked.

He was special for 2 years of his career.
He was pick 8 overall which is nuts high.

Kyle Shanahan is the expert of experts with regards to running the ball. The 49ers traded a 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th for McCaffrey.

 

[fivetwos]

The bigger point IMO is none of those guys have been good "VALUES" on their 2nd contracts.
And if you shouldn't give a guy a second contract, you probably shouldn't draft him top 15 of round 1.

I am OK with a RB at 26 because it is 26. Talent-wise that isn't a true R1 graded guy.

I can get on board with that if it pushes you over the top for the next couple of years. I’m not so sure it does in this case.

If he can do what McCaffery did for SF, that works, even if it’s only short term. It is indeed pick 26, not 6.

Personally I just want 3-4 guys that can carry the ball interchangeably. This way if one goes to Cabo…stay there. If one gets hurt during a playoff game, season may not be over, etc…

 

[fivetwos]

Kyle Shanahan is the expert of experts with regards to running the ball. The 49ers traded a 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th for McCaffrey.

Ha. Just mentioned him. That was a cherry on top type of move though.

Are we at that point?

Im not sure on that, but if this Robinson kid is available at 26 he will be a Cowboy.

I can see tons of pros and cons on that one, and this place may finally spiral out of control lol.

 

[cnuball21]

Your analysis: Christian McCaffrey sucks.

Just stop posting this garbage.

CMac is a great example of why you don’t draft 1st round RBs.

Carolina gave him the Zeke treatment drafting him early and paying him and he was borderline irrelevant in getting them over the jump the last few years.

His YPC this year was about the same as the guy that took over in CAR when he left.

 

[xwalker]

Ha. Just mentioned him. That was a cherry on top type of move though.

Are we at that point?

Im not sure on that, but if this Robinson kid is available at 26 he will be a Cowboy.

I can see tons of pros and cons on that one, and this place may finally spiral out of control lol.

If Adrian Peterson was available at #26 it would be a no-brainer to draft him.

I don't know if Bijan is on that level, but it's possible.

In 2017 when the Cowboys drafted Taco, the only available player with a 1st round grade on their board was RB Dalvin Cook.
- If they had drafted Cook, then the mega-contract for Zeke never happens.

 

[kskboys]

CMac is a great example of why you don’t draft 1st round RBs.

Carolina gave him the Zeke treatment drafting him early and paying him and he was borderline irrelevant in getting them over the jump the last few years.

His YPC this year was about the same as the guy that took over in CAR when he left.

Bad summation. McC was not the reason they couldn't get over the hump. They have no QB.

Seriously, you guys really need to stop reaching so far.

 

[G2]

Bad argument. There are tons of players at every position that don't make THAT big of a difference.

I had not idea. I'm not an Eagles fan, so I don't pay that much attention to every player on their team.

It's my perspective from around the league, it's not an argument.

 

[G2]

Bad summation. McC was not the reason they couldn't get over the hump. They have no QB.

Seriously, you guys really need to stop reaching so far.

Lol, ok.

 

[jterrell]

Kyle Shanahan is the expert of experts with regards to running the ball. The 49ers traded a 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th for McCaffrey.

They did and given the Panthers are eating 27M including over 18M unavoidable cap dollars in 2023 in dead money to make the deal it probably is a decent deal for SF.
Espescially very late in round picks.
But as many former fantasy owners will tell you McCaffrey really bombed as a rookie and after year 3, only resurrecting this year with SF.
On a 3-year 36M deal he is a fair to middling value at best.
But with zero GTD money and the ability to restructure that cash out over 5 years it becomes very doable, and he may well be a bargain for the 23 and 24 cap hits.

Would you take Bijan if Dallas drafted 8th? Of course not.
Drafting RB that high is silly.
Even if they are as good as Zeke was through 4 years.

Picking at 26 to me is not true R1 territory and you can certainly argue BPA there is a RB and make that move.

But I am NEVER taking a RB top 15.
Even if they end up the 1 in 100 example like Peterson you got to pay them come year 5.

 

[cnuball21]

Bad summation. McC was not the reason they couldn't get over the hump. They have no QB.

Seriously, you guys really need to stop reaching so far.

Right. Bc the QB position is way more valuable.

That doesn’t change the fact that the Panthers never should’ve drafted him and paid him. Just awful, awful roster management.

Again, his backup basically put up the same numbers when he left.

 

[xwalker]

They did and given the Panthers are eating 27M including over 18M unavoidable cap dollars in 2023 in dead money to make the deal it probably is a decent deal for SF.
Espescially very late in round picks.
But as many former fantasy owners will tell you McCaffrey really bombed as a rookie and after year 3, only resurrecting this year with SF.
On a 3-year 36M deal he is a fair to middling value at best.
But with zero GTD money and the ability to restructure that cash out over 5 years it becomes very doable, and he may well be a bargain for the 23 and 24 cap hits.

Would you take Bijan if Dallas drafted 8th? Of course not.
Drafting RB that high is silly.
Even if they are as good as Zeke was through 4 years.

Picking at 26 to me is not true R1 territory and you can certainly argue BPA there is a RB and make that move.

But I am NEVER taking a RB top 15.
Even if they end up the 1 in 100 example like Peterson you got to pay them come year 5.

McCaffrey's only issue has been injuries.

 

[jterrell]

McCaffrey's only issue has been injuries.

that is a big issue.
very big.
and very common for RB.

I would agree with you that the data shared in the OP doesn't preclude me taking a RB at pick 26.
But the data in the OP is all very real data and R1 RBs have not returned good value.
RB is absolutely getting a negative positional grade from me every year.
But yes some guys can overcome that at pick 26 if they last that long.

I'd never have given McCaffrey 3 years and 36M as a free agent right now either.
I absolutely am not trusting a guy to stay healthy that missed so much time the last 3 seasons.
Hand a RB guaranteed money and voila they seem to get injured.

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

The 26th overall pick is theoretically worth two second round picks (23rd picks in the second round / 55ths overall). For a team with this many needs, combined with extremely limited cap space for free agents, that trade starts looking pretty good. Dumb to take Robinson in that spot. Take Spears or McBride in the second, and use the other pick for another need. They both have more yards with fewer carries than Robinson. In fact, 8 of the top 25 college backs had more yards per carry than Robinson. I don't get the obsession.

 

[Bobhaze]

Your analysis: Christian McCaffrey sucks.

Just stop posting this garbage.

Ok…you think it’s garbage, that’s fine- so why post here then 3 times? If you hate this thread why “keep it alive” by posting?

I welcome an alternative way of looking at it. Tell us where you disagree. Several people have disagreed and some have presented some great points in opposition to my original points.

And by the way, I never said Christian McCaffrey sucks. You’re welcome to quote me, but please make quotes from me accurate.

 

[GRCowboy]

That's what gets you the Taco's of this world and pass on CeeDee.

Huh? TJ Watt was on the board. When in doubt you ALWAYS draft legacies. Charlton was a nobody and a consensus 3rd round pick talent. You're comparing 2 drafts three years apart??? Can't really argue with Lamb over Jefferson even though Jefferson has been marginally more productive.