CFZ The recent history of drafting a RB in the 1st round

[Reverend Conehead]

Below is a chart of all the RBs selected in the first round since 2012. Looking at this list can quickly explain why drafting a RB, especially early in round 1 is probably not the best use of draft capital.

Rd Year Pick

​

1​	2021​	24​	24​	Najee Harris​	Steelers​	Alabama​
1	2021​	25​	25​	Travis Etienne​	Jaguars​	Clemson​
1	2020​	32​	32​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire​	Chiefs​	Louisiana State​
1	2019​	24​	24​	Josh Jacobs​	Raiders​	Alabama​
1	2018​	2​	2​	Saquon Barkley​	Giants​	Penn State​
1	2018​	27​	27​	Rashaad Penny​	Seahawks​	San Diego State​
1	2018​	31​	31​	Sony Michel​	Patriots​	Georgia​
1	2017​	4​	4​	Leonard Fournette​	Jaguars​	Louisiana State​
1	2017​	8​	8​	Christian McCaffrey​	Panthers​	Stanford​
1	2016​	4​	4​	Ezekiel Elliott​	Cowboys​	Ohio State​
1	2015​	10​	10​	Todd Gurley​	Rams​	Georgia​
1	2015​	15​	15​	Melvin Gordon​	Chargers​	Wisconsin​
1	2012​	3​	3​	Trent Richardson​	Browns​	Alabama​
1	2012​	31​	31​	Doug Martin​	Buccaneers​	Boise State​
1	2012​	32​	32​	David Wilson​	Giants​	Virginia Tech​

Of the 15 first round RBs selected in round one in the last 11 drafts, only Zeke Elliott (2016, 2018) and Josh Jacobs (2022) have led the NFL in rushing in a season. The years 2013-14, not a single team selected a RB in round one.

And when looking at leading rusher stats the last 5 seasons, other than in 2018, first round RBs are not exactly killing it. In facts round 2 RBs are the most productive.

TOP 3 LEADING RUSHERS IN NFL BY YEAR (and round drafted)

• 2022- Josh Jacobs (rd 1), Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2)
• 2021- Jonathan Taylor (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Joe Mixon (rd 2)
• 2020- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Dalvin Cook (rd 2), Jonathan Taylor rd 2)
• 2019- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Christian McCaffrey (rd 1)
• 2018- Ezekiel Elliott (rd 1), Saquon Barkley (rd 1), Todd Gurley (rd 1)

Looks like drafting a RB in round 2 is a better option than round 1 based on recent history.

It worked at first. In 2016, we had a great O-line, and then when we added Zeke to it, we were a beast offense. That really helped Dak a lot because defenses had to go 8-man-front to stop the run, and a bunch of simple throws opened up for Dak.

It's a shame it didn't last! I don't remember running backs wearing out so fast in the 70s, but I was a kid back then, so maybe I just didn't notice. But you've got a great point. The team should be able to do just fine drafting a running back in the 3rd or 4th round.

 

[CowboysLakerBamaFan]

Brugler, Zuerlein and Kiper
www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4uqC-i8kzc

Your turn "Deep"??? The only "Deep" appears to be RB and TE.

Don't think what those yahoo's tell you to think.

Think what TheGreatCowboysLakerBamaFan tells you to think.

Oline- Deep
DLine -Historically deep
Wr- meh
RB-deep
CB-quite deep
S-depends on how you play them. LOT of versatile guys, that COULD be a safety, depending on scheme you play.
QB-AVERAGE
TE-deep
LB-who cares... should never use day 1 or 2 picks on off-ball LBers

 

[CowboyoWales]

Huh? TJ Watt was on the board. When in doubt you ALWAYS draft legacies. Charlton was a nobody and a consensus 3rd round pick talent. You're comparing 2 drafts three years apart??? Can't really argue with Lamb over Jefferson even though Jefferson has been marginally more productive.

Watt/Charlton debate somewhat proves my point, Charlton was a bigger out and out DE and Watt an OLB (who may be able to play edge) and had knee injuries. We played 4-3 and Charlton better suited our scheme. The argument i'm saying is pick the best player and make the coaching staff get the best out of them, rather than drafting (lesser) players just because they play the position, because the cream will rise to the top and schemes and coaching will change.

 

[kskboys]

Lol, ok.

That answer makes no sense.

 

[kskboys]

Huh? TJ Watt was on the board. When in doubt you ALWAYS draft legacies. Charlton was a nobody and a consensus 3rd round pick talent. You're comparing 2 drafts three years apart??? Can't really argue with Lamb over Jefferson even though Jefferson has been marginally more productive.

No he wasn't. Taco was a consensus 1st round pick. He was considered BPA over Watt at the time.

 

[kskboys]

Right. Bc the QB position is way more valuable.

That doesn’t change the fact that the Panthers never should’ve drafted him and paid him. Just awful, awful roster management.

Again, his backup basically put up the same numbers when he left.

I like McCaffrey, but considered him a 2nd/3rd round talent. And although I do love what he does, it's not hard to find a comparable scatback type(Pollard). Trying to make this type of RB your main guy is silly. Chargers keep trying to do it w/ Ekeler, and they suffer mightily on short yardage plays because of it.

If your main RB is 5-9ish, he needs to weigh like 220. Taylor is a prime example at 5-10/226. Need to have some body armor.

I'm not disagreeing w/ you, I'm simply disagreeeing w/ blaming the lack of team success on him. Same w/ Taylor/Indy. Not his fault the QB blows.

 

[kskboys]

They did and given the Panthers are eating 27M including over 18M unavoidable cap dollars in 2023 in dead money to make the deal it probably is a decent deal for SF.
Espescially very late in round picks.
But as many former fantasy owners will tell you McCaffrey really bombed as a rookie and after year 3, only resurrecting this year with SF.
On a 3-year 36M deal he is a fair to middling value at best.
But with zero GTD money and the ability to restructure that cash out over 5 years it becomes very doable, and he may well be a bargain for the 23 and 24 cap hits.

Would you take Bijan if Dallas drafted 8th? Of course not.
Drafting RB that high is silly.
Even if they are as good as Zeke was through 4 years.

Picking at 26 to me is not true R1 territory and you can certainly argue BPA there is a RB and make that move.

But I am NEVER taking a RB top 15.
Even if they end up the 1 in 100 example like Peterson you got to pay them come year 5.

Bombed at RB, was great as a receiver his rook year.

They keep trying to make McC a bell cow, and he's simply not built for it. Strictly an outside runner, w/ an occasional foray inside to keep the D from crashing out every time he gets the ball.

 

[G2]

That answer makes no sense.

Bad argument

 

[kumizi]

Rushing yards should no longer be the measuring stick to judge RBs.

How much are they producing per touch?
1. receiving production should be included
2. some teams give one RB 90% of the workload as the bell cow back. that's not a good thing. Id rather have a guy that gets 15 carries and 5 receptions a game than a guy that gets 25 carries a game and piles up rushing yards.

 

[kumizi]

They keep trying to make McC a bell cow, and he's simply not built for it. Strictly an outside runner, w/ an occasional foray inside to keep the D from crashing out every time he gets the ball.

This is what I'm talking about. There is no logical reason to have a "bell cow" running back.

 

[eromeopolk]

Below is a chart of all the RBs selected in the first round since 2012. Looking at this list can quickly explain why drafting a RB, especially early in round 1 is probably not the best use of draft capital.

Rd Year Pick

​

1​	2021​	24​	24​	Najee Harris​	Steelers​	Alabama​
1	2021​	25​	25​	Travis Etienne​	Jaguars​	Clemson​
1	2020​	32​	32​	Clyde Edwards-Helaire​	Chiefs​	Louisiana State​
1	2019​	24​	24​	Josh Jacobs​	Raiders​	Alabama​
1	2018​	2​	2​	Saquon Barkley​	Giants​	Penn State​
1	2018​	27​	27​	Rashaad Penny​	Seahawks​	San Diego State​
1	2018​	31​	31​	Sony Michel​	Patriots​	Georgia​
1	2017​	4​	4​	Leonard Fournette​	Jaguars​	Louisiana State​
1	2017​	8​	8​	Christian McCaffrey​	Panthers​	Stanford​
1	2016​	4​	4​	Ezekiel Elliott​	Cowboys​	Ohio State​
1	2015​	10​	10​	Todd Gurley​	Rams​	Georgia​
1	2015​	15​	15​	Melvin Gordon​	Chargers​	Wisconsin​
1	2012​	3​	3​	Trent Richardson​	Browns​	Alabama​
1	2012​	31​	31​	Doug Martin​	Buccaneers​	Boise State​
1	2012​	32​	32​	David Wilson​	Giants​	Virginia Tech​

Of the 15 first round RBs selected in round one in the last 11 drafts, only Zeke Elliott (2016, 2018) and Josh Jacobs (2022) have led the NFL in rushing in a season. The years 2013-14, not a single team selected a RB in round one.

And when looking at leading rusher stats the last 5 seasons, other than in 2018, first round RBs are not exactly killing it. In facts round 2 RBs are the most productive.

TOP 3 LEADING RUSHERS IN NFL BY YEAR (and round drafted)

• 2022- Josh Jacobs (rd 1), Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2)
• 2021- Jonathan Taylor (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Joe Mixon (rd 2)
• 2020- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Dalvin Cook (rd 2), Jonathan Taylor rd 2)
• 2019- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Christian McCaffrey (rd 1)
• 2018- Ezekiel Elliott (rd 1), Saquon Barkley (rd 1), Todd Gurley (rd 1)

Looks like drafting a RB in round 2 is a better option than round 1 based on recent history.

 

[blueblood70]

They compare Robinson to Barry Sanders. If you put a Barry Sanders type talent on a good team, they very well could go over the top.

IM huge Longhorn fan and while BJ is great, he is NOT in no way Barry sanders, he reminds me more of Etienne type which is good but please there aren't many all time RBs that can be compared to Sanders, that was another level type.

BJ IMHO not even as good as college zeke maybe close to him, people forget how great Zeke was college and fort 4 years with the Cowboys.

Id rather grab back in the 2nd/3rd round plenty of good ones to choose from.

 

[blueblood70]

Don't think what those yahoo's tell you to think.

Think what TheGreatCowboysLakerBamaFan tells you to think.

Oline- Deep
DLine -Historically deep
Wr- meh
RB-deep
CB-quite deep
S-depends on how you play them. LOT of versatile guys, that COULD be a safety, depending on scheme you play.
QB-AVERAGE
TE-deep
LB-who cares... should never use day 1 or 2 picks on off-ball LBers

"LB-who cares... should never use day 1 or 2 picks on off-ball LBers: that what they said about parsons..fans were wrong.

 

[CowboysLakerBamaFan]

"LB-who cares... should never use day 1 or 2 picks on off-ball LBers: that what they said about parsons..fans were wrong

Not what I meant.

If ur intent is to play the guy purely as a off line LB, get those guys on Day 3.

If your intent is to draft a guy that played traditional LB in college, because you know/think he can be an impact full edge rusher...then go for it!

 

[rambo2]

IM huge Longhorn fan and while BJ is great, he is NOT in no way Barry sanders, he reminds me more of Etienne type which is good but please there aren't many all time RBs that can be compared to Sanders, that was another level type.

BJ IMHO not even as good as college zeke maybe close to him, people forget how great Zeke was college and fort 4 years with the Cowboys.

Id rather grab back in the 2nd/3rd round plenty of good ones to choose from.

I'm leaning toward the other backs as well. I'm ok with whoever they pick in the 1st round. They are good at it. I trust their judgment. I for sure want them to cut Zeke and would be ok if they let Pollard walk and draft 2 backs.

 

[CowboyoWales]

Similarities to Pollard. Problem is he wont get to no.58.

 

[CowboyoWales]

Rushing yards should no longer be the measuring stick to judge RBs.

How much are they producing per touch?
1. receiving production should be included
2. some teams give one RB 90% of the workload as the bell cow back. that's not a good thing. Id rather have a guy that gets 15 carries and 5 receptions a game than a guy that gets 25 carries a game and piles up rushing yards.

I look at Bijan and imagine the space he will generate for the WR's and Dak, depending on whether the LB's play for the run. That tape gives the X-factor ability to beat linesmen something that will occupy LB's all game. My concern would be that his talents may not translate up against better O-line's in the NFL. But as you say he can be used in so many different DeeBo ways.

My main argument is when some fans just dismiss him based on position.

 

[Hardline]

When you draft Bijan you aren't just getting an elite RB.
You are also getting a major threat in the passing game. Bijan has the hands of a WR.

 

[cnuball21]

I like McCaffrey, but considered him a 2nd/3rd round talent. And although I do love what he does, it's not hard to find a comparable scatback type(Pollard). Trying to make this type of RB your main guy is silly. Chargers keep trying to do it w/ Ekeler, and they suffer mightily on short yardage plays because of it.

If your main RB is 5-9ish, he needs to weigh like 220. Taylor is a prime example at 5-10/226. Need to have some body armor.

I'm not disagreeing w/ you, I'm simply disagreeeing w/ blaming the lack of team success on him. Same w/ Taylor/Indy. Not his fault the QB blows.

That’s fair, but it kinda proves the point it doesn’t matter how good a RB is if the OL / team / QB isn’t good enough. RB also has the shortest shelf life.

I was surprised the 49ers traded for CMac. I think they’re formula or just churning out 3 dudes and keeping them fresh is the way to go. Cheap.

 

[rambo2]

Similarities to Pollard. Problem is he wont get to no.58.

Spears from Tulane reminds me of Pollard.