The Roy Myth Thread

AdamJT13

Salary Cap Analyst
Messages
16,583
Reaction score
4,529
masomenos85;2082257 said:
4. Roy has never made a big play in the playoffs

I don't think it's an issue of whether or not he's ever made a big play in the playoffs, but rather if he's made them with any consistency. In the three playoff games Roy has played in he's has 8 tackles, 1 INT, 1 pass deflection and 1 Forced Fumble. Those are just pretty mediocre stats that are below his career per game averages in some respects. He's a pro bowler who's played in three playoff games and hasn't made very many big plays.

In three playoff games, he has one interception and one forced fumble. That's 0.33 interceptions and 0.33 forced fumbles per game. Over a 16-game season, that's 5.33 interceptions and 5.33 forced fumbles, which would be a very good season for a safety.

And his career averages in the regular season are 0.20 interceptions and 0.11 forced fumbles per game, so they're not "below his career per game averages," either.

5. Turnovers have been missing from Roy's game the past two years

They haven't been missing altogether, no, but these past two years have been his worst two combined seasons when compared to any other two year span in his career. Or I should say these past two years are tied for the worst two year span.

Total Turnovers (TT) per 2 seasons:

2002-2003 = 12 TT
2003-2004 = 7 TT
2004-2005 = 9 TT
2005-2006 = 11 TT
2006-2007 = 7 TT

Roy has 10 takeaways in the past two seasons -- seven interceptions and three fumble recoveries. And his seven interceptions match his career high for any two-year period of his career.

6. Roy can't tackle

Clearly he can tackle

Obviously.

but he did have his lowest rate of solo tackles in 2007. Now this doesn't mean a whole lot, but I thought it was interesting that it was his worst year in terms of the percentage of solo tackles he had. Also, the past two years are again his worst two year span. I'll throw the numbers out there just for fun, but like I said I know they don't mean a whole lot, just kind of interesting:

Percentage of Tackles Recorded As 'Solo'

2002 - 90%
2003 - 83%
2004 - 82%
2005 - 86%
2006 - 84%
2007 - 79%

Not only is that stat completely irrelevant, I have no idea where you're getting those numbers. According to the Cowboys' coaches, Roy had a higher percentage of solo tackles (as irrelevant as the stat might be) in 2007 than he had in 2006, 2003 or 2002. And according to NFL.com's unofficial tackle stats, he had a higher percentage in 2007 than he had in 2004 or 2003.

As far as the stat itself, which would you rather have from a player, 100 solo tackles and 10 assists or the same 100 solo tackles (on the same plays) and 30 assists (10 on the same plays as the first 10, plus 20 other plays)? The only difference is that in the latter case, the player was involved in 20 more plays. And that's somehow a bad thing?

10. Roy injured Jamal Lewis with a horse-collar tackle in 2004

I don't recall the tackle personally, but three sources (Calvin Watkins, Todd Archer, and Len Pasquarelli) all say it was a Roy Williams horse collar that sprained Lewis' ankle.

http://http://www.***BANNED-URL***/...wboys/stories/121807dnspocowlede.11e4bec.html

"On Nov. 21, 2004, Williams took out Baltimore running backs Jamal Lewis and Musa Smith with the horse-collar tackles. Lewis suffered a sprained ankle..."

http://http://www.***BANNED-URL***/sharedcontent/dws/spe/2005/horse_collar_tackle/horsetest.swf

"...Williams' horse collar tackles injured...Baltimore running back Jamal Lewis, who sprained his ankle."

http://groups.google.com/group/alt.s...5de625be1a0502

"Williams knocked out a pair of Baltimore tailbacks, starter Jamal Lewis
and backup Musa Smith, within minutes of each other in a Nov. 21 game. On a play early in the first quarter, he horse-collared Lewis after a three-yard reception, sending the Ravens star to the sideline. Lewis returned for one play on the ensuing series, but then limped off with a badly sprained left ankle, which sidelined him for the balance of that game and for the following two contests."

No matter how many times it's reported, it still doesn't make it true.

Here's the play that is referenced in the last article --

2-8-BLT 12 (10:11) K.Boller pass to J.Lewis to BLT 15 for 3 yards (L.Carson, Ro.Williams).

It was Lewis' only catch of the game, so it's not possible that they could have been talking about some other 3-yard catch by Lewis in the first quarter.

On that play, Lewis caught a dumpoff pass in the flat, in front of Al Singleton. Leonardo Carson then tackled Lewis from behind, and Roy hit him from the front. Roy was never behind Lewis and never grabbed his collar or any other part of him. All he did was hit Lewis as Lewis was going down, then fall over the top of him.

The photo below shows Roy approaching Lewis as Carson begins to tackle Lewis (Carson is obscured in the photo, with his helmet next to Lewis' hip. Al Singleton is the player behind Carson, with his helmet seen above Lewis' shoulder.) ---v

11rt11l.jpg





The photo below shows Roy about to make contact with Lewis, who is starting to go down ---v

2aak1us.jpg





The photo below shows the contact. It's anything but a horse-collar. Also, notice that Carson is falling on Lewis' left ankle. (More on that later.) ---v

acerkx.jpg




The photo below shows the moment after contact. Roy certainly didn't have ahold of Lewis' jersey --

2r5vk40.jpg




And the photo below shows Roy tumbling over Lewis ---v

141jxw3.jpg




As they got up, Roy patted Lewis on the helmet, and Lewis trotted back toward the huddle.

One of the articles you quoted says Lewis was injured by Roy's horse-collar on that play. Obviously, there was no horse-collar on that play. Roy never horse-collared Lewis in that game. In fact, it's almost certain that wasn't even the play Lewis was hurt on.

After that play, the Ravens ran a third-down play, then punted. The first play of their next possession was this --

1-10-BLT 14 (6:32) J.Lewis left tackle to BLT 18 for 4 yards (G.Ellis).

After that play, Lewis got up limping. He limped to the sideline, then never returned to the game.


Here's a photo of Ellis making the tackle on Lewis. I've circled them so people can pick out which players they are. Notice Ellis with both feet off the ground (his hands are around Lewis' waist). ---v

141jy9z.jpg





The photo below shows Ellis falling on the back of Lewis' legs, with Lewis' right ankle getting trapped under Ellis --v

256tr83.jpg




And here's Lewis going down, with Ellis on his legs (and his hands nowhere close to Lewis' collar) --v

2wekos7.jpg




After the play, as I said, Lewis limped off the field and never returned. This almost certainly was the play on which Lewis was injured.

Is it possible that Lewis was injured on the other play, when Carson fell on his ankle? It's very doubtful, given that Carson fell on Lewis' LEFT ankle, and Lewis' injury was to his RIGHT ankle --

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=1929496

"Lewis hurt his right ankle in the first quarter of Sunday's 30-10 victory over the Dallas Cowboys and did not return."

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/25/sports/football/25football.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

"Baltimore Ravens running back Jamal Lewis, the National Football League's leading rusher last season, will miss Sunday's game against the New England Patriots because of a sprained right ankle. The injury occurred last Sunday during Baltimore's 30-10 victory over Dallas."

http://www.usatoday.com/community/utils/idmap/13034453.story

"Three weeks after his return, Lewis sprained his right ankle after getting only two carries in a Nov. 21 game against Dallas."



Which ankle was it again that Ellis fell on, on the same play that sent Lewis limping to the sideline?

256tr83.jpg




15. Roy doesn't have the heart to play

Well it's kind of hard to prove or disprove that one. He may or may not, no one knows but him.

And every indication is that he is working harder than ever, is "very excited" about the upcoming season and has done everything asked of him.


17. Roy said he doesn't hit hard anymore because he found God

Well he did say pretty much that exact thing in the Michael Irvin interview, here chronicled by Tim MacMahon

http://cowboysblog.***BANNED-URL***/ar...hrown-his.html

"People will say Roy is really not making any big hits. Ever since I rededicated my life to God, OK, I haven't been making the big hits, but we got further than we ever did when I was living of the world."

He went on to say that the hits "would come" as he became more comfortable with the defense. However he did acknowledge there being a relationship between his religion and the "big hits" issue.

He never said his religion WAS the reason WHY he hasn't had as many big hits, he merely noted the that people say those two factors coincide (or even that they do). Besides, the meaning changes completely when you change the punctuation of those words (he obviously doesn't indicate punctuation when he's speaking), such as this -- "People will say Roy is really not making any big hits ever since I rededicated my life to God. OK, I haven't been making the big hits, but we got further than we ever did when I was living of the world."

At any rate, by saying "believe me, the hits will come," he clarifies that he definitely wasn't saying that his religion makes him not try to hit hard anymore.


31. Jeremy Shockey always has big games against Roy

I don't know how many of them were specifically against Roy but in the 10 games Shockey has played against us he's scored 6 TDs. That's more than double the rate that he's caught TDs against other teams throughout his career. Typically he doesn't torch us for a lot of yards, however this past season he did gain 28% of his yards for the entire season in the two games against us.

One of those TDs against us came in a game when he had two catches for 8 yards, and another came in a game when he had two catches for 23. Neither of those qualifies as a "big game" by any stretch of the imagination.

Another TD came when he had five catches for 44 yards, which is a fairly mediocre game.

The other three TDs came in the only three good games Shockey has had against us in six years. One was a six-catch, 65-yard game. That's pretty good, but we won the game. It's a borderline "great game." Two of them unquestionably could be qualified as "big games," though -- 12 catches for 129 yards, and five catches for 129 yards.

But, let's take a closer look at those games. In his 12-129 game this year, Shockey had only four catches for 23 yards against Roy. He had eight for 106 when Roy wasn't covering him. And in the 5-129 game in 2005, he had a 63-yard catch against Scott Fujita. So even when Shockey has "big" games against us, it's more because he beats other players than because he beats Roy.

When Shockey hasn't scored against us, he has had one catch for 11 yards, three for 28, two for 20 and five for 41. Overall, his averages against us are 4.3 catches for 49.8 yards. Against every other team, it's 4.5 for 51.1 yards.

But hey, at least you attempted to prove some of the myths.
 

masomenos

Less is more
Messages
5,983
Reaction score
33
In three playoff games, he has one interception and one forced fumble. That's 0.33 interceptions and 0.33 forced fumbles per game. Over a 16-game season, that's 5.33 interceptions and 5.33 forced fumbles, which would be a very good season for a safety.

And his career averages in the regular season are 0.20 interceptions and 0.11 forced fumbles per game, so they're not "below his career per game averages," either.

You're right, I don't know where I got the idea that his INT rate was higher over his career. I think I may have taken the number from his stats last year? Anyways, clearly that wasn't right. His tackle numbers would be pretty bad for a regular season if he preformed at his playoff numbers. I think it would be right around 43 tackles in a season, which wouldn't be good. And like I said, in reference to the INT, as far as I remember it wasn't directly do to his coverage but was the result of a great play by Terrence Newman. It still counts as an INT obviously but I think I've always considered that more of a play that Newman made as opposed to Roy. And to his credit, from what I remember, Roy did a really nice job of keeping his feet in bounds lol.


Roy has 10 takeaways in the past two seasons -- seven interceptions and three fumble recoveries. And his seven interceptions match his career high for any two-year period of his career.

I was counting INTs and Forced Fumbles. Although I guess forced fumbles aren't turnovers, lol. The number I was going for was turnovers caused by Roy. It's a little beyond what I can research, but can you find the numbers, by season, for how many of Roy's forced fumbles resulted in turnovers? It just doesn't seem like a player picking up a fumble should be counted as them "creating" a turnover, I would credit that to the person who knocked the ball loose.


Not only is that stat completely irrelevant, I have no idea where you're getting those numbers. According to the Cowboys' coaches, Roy had a higher percentage of solo tackles (as irrelevant as the stat might be) in 2007 than he had in 2006, 2003 or 2002. And according to NFL.com's unofficial tackle stats, he had a higher percentage in 2007 than he had in 2004 or 2003.

Well I even admitted the stat didn't mean much of anything, lol. As far as where I got the numbers, I just divided the amount of solo tackles Roy had in each season by his total tackles for the season. Using that method I'm pretty sure the numbers I posted are correct, but if there not please feel free to point it out. I just think it's interesting that over the past two seasons he's had his lowest rate of solo tackles. While the stat on it's own may not mean much it could explain why people have started complaining about his tackling. It would just be a perception thing, but when people are watching the games they may not appreciate Roy's impact because he wasn't the only person making the tackle. In one of the years 90% of Roy's tackles were solo, so he may have stood out more to the viewer. Then this past season his rate of solo tackles were 11% lower, so even though he was still making tackles he wasn't making them alone and viewers may not have registered it the same as when he was making all the plays by himself. What do you think, valid theory?





No matter how many times it's reported, it still doesn't make it true.

Here's the play that is referenced in the last article --

2-8-BLT 12 (10:11) K.Boller pass to J.Lewis to BLT 15 for 3 yards (L.Carson, Ro.Williams).

It was Lewis' only catch of the game, so it's not possible that they could have been talking about some other 3-yard catch by Lewis in the first quarter.

On that play, Lewis caught a dumpoff pass in the flat, in front of Al Singleton. Leonardo Carson then tackled Lewis from behind, and Roy hit him from the front. Roy was never behind Lewis and never grabbed his collar or any other part of him. All he did was hit Lewis as Lewis was going down, then fall over the top of him.

:eek: That's the kind of stuff I like seeing from you. Something backed with a ridiculous amount of information. And that's the problem I think a lot of people had with your list, you provided a list of myths and, even if they are myths, didn't do much of anything to prove them. Now people have said, it's been proven in the past. That's fine, provide links to it. It's the internet Adam, you can't just post things and have people take your word for it, the evidence has to be in front of them.

And every indication is that he is working harder than ever, is "very excited" about the upcoming season and has done everything asked of him.

"Every indication" doesn't mean something is or isn't true. It's just like saying, "If I had to give my best informed guess, I'd say...". Just because you do everything asked of you doesn't mean you have the heart for it. Lot's of people do everything they're asked to at work every day and hate their jobs. It's possible Roy is just being a professional. It's also possible he has a ton of heart. It's something we can't know.

He never said his religion WAS the reason WHY he hasn't had as many big hits, he merely noted the that people say those two factors coincide (or even that they do). Besides, the meaning changes completely when you change the punctuation of those words (he obviously doesn't indicate punctuation when he's speaking), such as this -- "People will say Roy is really not making any big hits ever since I rededicated my life to God. OK, I haven't been making the big hits, but we got further than we ever did when I was living of the world."

At any rate, by saying "believe me, the hits will come," he clarifies that he definitely wasn't saying that his religion makes him not try to hit hard anymore.

One thing I meant to bring up was this...Why would being comfortable in a defense effect the force Roy could put behind his hits? You run at someone and collide with them, there's no system to it. Not knowing a system could put you out of place, sure, but it's not like Roy wasn't making contact with people out there.

The bottom line is that Roy admitted he's not making the big hits anymore. In his interview he doesn't come out and say, "God told me not to hit people hard" or anything but he doesn't dismiss it either. He acknowledged that he's heard the criticism and has heard people question whether it has something to do with him finding religion. He then says something to the effect of, "I haven't been making big hits, but hey, I have become a better person." And you can't take his last statement of, "The hits will come" as proof of anything, for all we know he said it to appease the fans.

Personally, I don't think there's a relationship between hitting people hard and being a Christian. It's almost stupid to even suggest it. I'm just arguing the point for the sake of arguing though and I don't think Roy helped himself in that interview at all.


But, let's take a closer look at those games. In his 12-129 game this year, Shockey had only four catches for 23 yards against Roy. He had eight for 106 when Roy wasn't covering him. And in the 5-129 game in 2005, he had a 63-yard catch against Scott Fujita. So even when Shockey has "big" games against us, it's more because he beats other players than because he beats Roy.

When Shockey hasn't scored against us, he has had one catch for 11 yards, three for 28, two for 20 and five for 41. Overall, his averages against us are 4.3 catches for 49.8 yards. Against every other team, it's 4.5 for 51.1 yards.

While his catches and yards may be slightly lower against us than against other teams, on average, his rate of catching TDs is significantly higher. This is stat work you would have to do, but can you find how many of Shockey's TDs were actually against Roy?

But hey, at least you attempted to prove some of the myths.

Now here I don't know if you're saying, "Hey good, at least you tried to back things up instead of just posting idle opinion," or if you're kind of being a jerk about the whole thing.
 

Bob Sacamano

Benched
Messages
57,084
Reaction score
3
I hate Roy Williams

because they start these types of threads

it gets so cluttered that I can't put in my .02 cents
 

bbgun

Benched
Messages
27,869
Reaction score
6
I told you he was the "third rail" of Cowboyszone. "Jerry the GM" threads are a close second.
 

Redskins2008

New Member
Messages
39
Reaction score
0
I will not say Roy Williams cannot cover. Main problem with Roy is he want to make a play all the time and put himself in bad position on play action. He fall for play action too much for Safety
 

theogt

Surrealist
Messages
45,846
Reaction score
5,912
Redskins2008;2083795 said:
I will not say Roy Williams cannot cover. Main problem with Roy is he want to make a play all the time and put himself in bad position on play action. He fall for play action too much for Safety
Holy subject-verb agreement Batman!
 

jobberone

Kane Ala
Messages
54,219
Reaction score
19,659
Well RW does not suck. But there are reasons for him to change his number, say the big hits will come, say I'm not comfortable in this defense, have a huge number of people saying RW needs to play better, him work on his pass defense, work on his play recognition, and yada yada yada. It's not because he's the best safety in the league, I'll at least give you that much. It's not just a big fire with nothing but smoke. And if you can cover well enough they don't take you out on passing downs. Some of that is the nature of the NFL evolving to the point you do need cover DBs all over the field. Some of it is because you are a liability hence someone else takes your place on the field. You can't dismiss that completely.
 

dallasfaniac

Active Member
Messages
4,198
Reaction score
1
jobberone;2083823 said:
Some of it is because you are a liability hence someone else takes your place on the field. You can't dismiss that completely.

There's a big difference between being removed from the field of play and being moved to a different position. I'm curious as to the actual numbers, care to expound Adam?

When they move Roy to LB and add another DB, that's more of a statement about the linebacking coverage than about Roy's play at safety. Besides, how many players play every down of the game?
 

percyhoward

Research Tool
Messages
17,062
Reaction score
21,861
abersonc;2083925 said:
Let's keep it going.

I want to see this hit 1000.

Whaddayas say I post this picture 423 more times, and we close the thread?

http://i143.***BLOCKED***/albums/r144/db2rules/bunny_pancake.jpg
 

iceberg

rock music matters
Messages
34,403
Reaction score
7,930
Redskins2008;2083795 said:
I will not say Roy Williams cannot cover. Main problem with Roy is he want to make a play all the time and put himself in bad position on play action. He fall for play action too much for Safety

welcome to the yoda school of secondary coaching.
 
Top