This year's running game is better

[Brooksey]

One of the funniest threads of the year.

 

[Nova]

thing I don't get is why they are not using Turbin more he gets a first down with two carries ?

its got me baffled ?

The brain trust at work. McFadden has been banged up so naturally he should have received the bulk of carries, on a short week in which he carries the ball 29 times.

 

[percyhoward]

There is always more to the story than a number.

So point out what's missing.

 

[CCBoy]

So point out what's missing.

Percy, your numbers have shown that the tendency to run, is effective this season as well. In application, the team has a general on game followed by an off game tendency...but that doesn't tell the true story for function of the run side of things.

With Tony Romo going down, the projection of evaluation is askew even more.

The merit for total production is again off for a strong evaluation of integrated efforts, between pass and run.

Some additional stats may be in order, that reflect how good the run game is doing against what are considered strong run defense. If against a team such as Carolina, the run game falters...then both the lead pack runner and certain elements of the offensive line should be questioned. At least as far as short to long termed cohesion is concerned.

Just as a side consideration in reference to the focus that I was attempting to investigate, it well could be a major consideration to venture into a new and more dominant right tackle as well. But we know now, that a high value backup is needed to back Tony Romo now. The team now must consider whether the franchise can venture further, on the reliability of Tony for a stable and entire season. That mesh between him and the current offensive line is in question.

You have demonstrated that as far as a run game, the team is capable...but applied now, the Hare in Alice in Wonderland just ran by with his huge watch and screaming...'I'm late, I'm late. To a very important date.'

 

[Nightman]

I trust my eyes more than gathered numbers. You can make numbers fit any agenda. Just gather the right ones and leave the others out.

"There are lies, damned lies and then statistics."- Mark Twain

What ever point percy is trying to make fails the smell test. The running game is not better this year. We were 2nd last year and 9th and falling this year. We are a lot closer to 20th than to 1st.

147 ypg vs 115 ypg
16 TDs vs 9 TDs*
4.6 ypc vs 4.2 ypc

 

[percyhoward]

"There are lies, damned lies and then statistics."- Mark Twain

What ever point percy is trying to make fails the smell test. The running game is not better this year. We were 2nd last year and 9th and falling this year. We are a lot closer to 20th than to 1st.

147 ypg vs 115 ypg
16 TDs vs 9 TDs*
4.6 ypc vs 4.2 ypc

Thanks for looking at both halves of games, at least. Anybody who posts just the 2nd-half attempts and ignores the 1st-half completely is proving Twain's point -- that you can lie with statistics if that's your aim.

Not that you seem to be doing that. It looks like you're honestly satisfied not looking any deeper than the numbers you posted. I'm curious as to why you'd think that the absence of a downfield passing threat would have no effect on these numbers, and why our first down percentage and short yardage/goal line running is better than last year's. Because it makes sense to me that a good run-blocking OL would have short-yardage success no matter who the QB is, but might average fewer yards per rush absent a downfield passing threat that defenses would otherwise have to respect when not in short yardage situations.

Maybe you can explain why that doesn't make sense to you.

 

[Nightman]

Thanks for looking at both halves of games, at least. Anybody who posts just the 2nd-half attempts and ignores the 1st-half completely is proving Twain's point -- that you can lie with statistics if that's your aim.

Not that you seem to be doing that. It looks like you're honestly satisfied not looking any deeper than the numbers you posted. I'm curious as to why you'd think that the absence of a downfield passing threat would have no effect on these numbers, and why our first down percentage and short yardage/goal line running is better than last year's. Because it makes sense to me that a good run-blocking OL would have short-yardage success no matter who the QB is, but might average fewer yards per rush absent a downfield passing threat that defenses would otherwise have to respect when not in short yardage situations.

Maybe you can explain why that doesn't make sense to you.

3 of our 4 worst running games have come with Romo as the QB.

Our running game is nowhere near as good as last year. Trying to use stats like first down percentage and short yardage to change that fact is just a ruse. A football game is a lot more than 1st downs and short yardage.

 

[percyhoward]

3 of our 4 worst running games have come with Romo as the QB.

That's technically true, but look at the 4 games. We all knew the OL wasn't settled the first two weeks, because of injuries that began in the preseason and continued into the season. Carolina is the best run defense we've faced. That just leaves the Miami game.

Our running game is nowhere near as good as last year. Trying to use stats like first down percentage and short yardage to change that fact is just a ruse. A football game is a lot more than 1st downs and short yardage.

Don't forget time of possession, which is also up this year. If you're evaluating a running game, you have to look at conversions, especially in short-yardage/goal line. You can't just ignore that stuff. We're converting running plays into first downs at a higher rate this year, which has allowed us to increase time of possession. We sure haven't been doing it by passing the ball.

1st downs, games 3-7
Cowboys' NFL rank
by rush 2nd
by pass 28th

 

[ufcrules1]

One of the funniest threads of the year.

I too got a really good chuckle. I thought at first I was reading an old thread from last year.

 

[ufcrules1]

NOPE!

And now the reality:

The Cowboys running game is finished by halftime, They lack the stamina, intensity, and power to impose their will on opponent defenses. Instead, they surrender.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

2nd Half Rushing Stats

average yards per carry
2014-5.34
2015-3.78

1st down and ten
2014-5.23
2015-3.38

3rd down and 3 or less
2014-3.36
2015-2.50

Touchdowns in Red Zone:
2014-3
2015-0

Total Rushing Touchdowns in 2nd Half:
2014-5
2015-0

_________________________________________________________________________________________

This season the Cowboys are one of only two teams that have not scored a TD running the ball in the 2nd half.

/thread. It's funny how some people try so hard to manipulate stats to make something seem better or worse than they are. If only misleading stats told the whole story. What's next? Are we going to see some kind of stats that make us look like a top 5 team at 3-8?

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

/thread. It's funny how some people try so hard to manipulate stats to make something seem better or worse than they are. If only misleading stats told the whole story. What's next? Are we going to see some kind of stats that make us look like a top 5 team at 3-8?

We might be the best 3-8 team of all time. lol

 

[KJJ]

We might be the best 3-8 team of all time. lol

I'm sure Percy could come up with an entire page full of stats that would put this current Cowboys team on par with some of their great 90's teams.

 

[ufcrules1]

We might be the best 3-8 team of all time. lol

Believe me, the stat kings will find a way to make it look that way.

 

[percyhoward]

Football Outsiders' efficiency metrics, which look at the situation and results of each running play, have our rushing game 10th in the league this year. Last year, it was 3rd. As you say, running has been more difficult this year because of the woeful state of the passing game.

Personally, I prefer looking at FootballOutsiders' rush rankings to tell. We were 3rd in rushing offense DVOA last year and 10th this year. Now, that comes at 10th without Romo and Dez. I just don't think the rush offense is as bad as people are making it out to be.

Those are two good posts that gave me the idea of looking into Football Outsiders' data on 2nd-level rushing yards.

Here's the difference between our downfield passing last year and this...

Targets of 10+ yards
pass rating
2014 119.7
2015 69.6

Here's the only major difference between this year's rushing numbers and last year's...

2nd-level rushing yards (5-10 yards past LOS)
NFL rank
2014 2nd
2015 16th

Remember, short yardage/goal line, stuffs, is all better this year than last year. The problem begins just beyond the LOS, where there are more defenders than we can block, because they know they don't have to worry about defending anything behind them. Take last year's 119.7 rating on intermediate-to-deep throws, put it into this season, and nobody would be complaining about the running game.

One of the funniest threads of the year.

I'll take that as a compliment, since we could use a good laugh right now.

 

[percyhoward]

I'm sure Percy could come up with an entire page full of stats that would put this current Cowboys team on par with some of their great 90's teams.

We might be the best 3-8 team of all time. lol

Believe me, the stat kings will find a way to make it look that way.

The team sucks, obviously. It's got talent, but that talent is concentrated in too few positions.

That doesn't mean we have to be so lazy about understanding the dynamics of how different parts of the team interact that we indiscriminately ascribe failure to all parts of it. In plain English, it's okay to think before you whine.

 

[ufcrules1]

The team sucks, obviously. It's got talent, but that talent is concentrated in too few positions.

That doesn't mean we have to be so lazy about understanding the dynamics of how different parts of the team interact that we indiscriminately ascribe failure to all parts of it. In plain English, it's okay to think before you whine.

We have always "had talent". That is what perplexes everyone. We hear about the talent every single year but the results are always the same. It isn't about not having good talent spread throughout the whole team, it's about poor management that leads to poor culture, that leads to poor coaching that leads to underperforming players because they are set up to fail. With regards to stats, I don't mind looking at them but not ok when common sense and reasoning are thrown out of the picture. Saying the 2015 run game is better than the 2014 run game is literally laughable man.

 

[percyhoward]

Saying the 2015 run game is better than the 2014 run game is literally laughable man.

You have the evidence that the running game is actually performing better in every other aspect besides 2nd-level yards. You know defenses don't have to respect the pass beyond the 2nd level. All I can do is ask you to think. If you prefer to stare blankly instead, that's your right.

 

[ufcrules1]

You have the evidence that the running game is actually performing better in every other aspect besides 2nd-level yards. You know defenses don't have to respect the pass beyond the 2nd level. All I can do is ask you to think. If you prefer to stare blankly instead, that's your right.

Let's not take anything out, leave all the stats in and then tell me which running game was better, this year or last? Stats can easily be manipulated to paint a picture and that is what you did. Trust me when I tell you this, you are in the EXTREME minority saying this years running game was better than last years. I'm talking like 1 in a million.

It would be like saying one running back is much better than another simply because his YPC was higher, but ignoring the fact that he carried the ball only 20 times compared with 300 from the other RB. It's nothing more than fodder man.

 

[percyhoward]

Let's not take anything out, leave all the stats in and then tell me which running game was better, this year or last? Stats can easily be manipulated to paint a picture and that is what you did. Trust me when I tell you this, you are in the EXTREME minority saying this years running game was better than last years. I'm talking like 1 in a million.

It would be like saying one running back is much better than another simply because his YPC was higher, but ignoring the fact that he carried the ball only 20 times compared with 300 from the other RB. It's nothing more than fodder man.

Dude, nothing is being taken out. Just sorted according to the gain on each run. The 300 carries vs. 20 carries argument is ridiculous. We had 339 carries last year through 11 games, this year we've got 302.

Looking at every run, our short yardage running is better. Our stuffs are fewer. Even our TOP is greater. The only difference is what happens 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, where there are more defenders present than last year, because there is no passing threat beyond 10 yards. That's why we have fewer stuffs and more very long runs, but fewer 5-10 yard runs. We're better in short yardage too.

And no, I'm not in the minority, for what it's worth. Most people do get that there is a connection between your ability to pass and the defenses you run against. We were great at the 2nd level last year, because the defenders were farther back, defending the intermediate-to-deep pass. Your passing game has an obvious effect on your running game. It would be very strange to think it didn't.

 

[5Stars]

Let's not take anything out, leave all the stats in and then tell me which running game was better, this year or last? Stats can easily be manipulated to paint a picture and that is what you did. Trust me when I tell you this, you are in the EXTREME minority saying this years running game was better than last years. I'm talking like 1 in a million.

It would be like saying one running back is much better than another simply because his YPC was higher, but ignoring the fact that he carried the ball only 20 times compared with 300 from the other RB. It's nothing more than fodder man.

Hey, ufcrules...did you throw a parade now that Romo got hurt? I'm sure you slept good that night!