This year's running game is better

[Bleu Star]

Last year's running game: five lost fumbles.

This year's running game: no lost fumbles.

Last year: 5 lost fumbles in 18 (right?)
This year: 0 lost fumbles in 10

Since we're suddenly governing everything by the numbers. We still have some ground to carve.

 

[maxdallasfan]

I think any RB in the league would have lower numbers while his QB1 is out for 7 games.

 

[AdamJT13]

Last year: 5 lost fumbles in 18 (right?)

Counting the playoffs, the running game lost six fumbles in 18 games last season. (Peppers stripped Murray in the playoffs for the sixth one.)

 

[Hoofbite]

Going into the season, I wasn't worried about yards per carry or controling the clock, but I was concerned about short yardage. There had been a clear advantage for Murray over the other backs we'd used in short-yardage situations over the last four years. This year, McFadden has converted 14 of 17 times in short yardage/goal line situations, so now there are no worries except whether he can stay healthy. He's been even better than Murray was in this area.

Red Zone and Goal line
TD percentage
from or inside 10-yard line
2014 29 rushes, 10 TD 34.5%
2015 11 rushes, 5 TD 45.5%

from or inside 5-yard line
2014 17 rushes, 9 TD 52.9%
2015 7 rushes, 5 TD 71.4%

goal line (from 1- or 2-yard lines)
2014 8 rushes, 8 TD 100%
2015 7 rushes, 5 TD 71.4%

This is pretty interesting. 7 rushes have come from 1 or 2 yards out in 10 games compared to all of last year's 8 attempts. These rushes encompass 70% of the team's attempts and pretty much all of the production for Red Zone rushing. Or, inside the 10 yard line rushing, at least. Seems like with so few attempts from outside the 2 yard line the numbers from other subsets are buffed a bit. The team has only attempted 4 runs outside the 2 but inside the 10? They had almost that many attempts and TDs from the 2 yard line or closer against just the Falcons. Maybe not so much an question of efficacy as it is a question of opportunity.

 

[Bigdog]

McFadden has more yards than Murray to.

And he is lot cheaper

 

[black label]

And he is lot cheaper

 

[Rockport]

I will have nightmares.

 

[Bigdog]

I will have nightmares.

So will i

 

[RonSpringsdaman20]

consistency & Physicality was the key to last year's running game. It was good all year long.

starting to come alive this year.

 

[rpntex]

Yards per rush
2014 4.6
2015 4.3

Just looking at ypr, you'd think 2014 was clearly better, but a lot of those yards came in situations when the game was already decided. Last year, we averaged 6.3 ypr when we were ahead by 17 points or more in the 2nd half. We haven't had any plays in that situation this year. Subtract those garbage-time runs, and our 2014 average goes down to 4.4 yards yards per rush. Add those kinds of runs to our 2015 average, and it would almost certainly go up.


Percentage of rushes resulting in a first down
2014 22.3%
2015 25.0%

Conversion rate is more telling than yards per carry, because it gives a slightly better idea of how much value you're actually getting out of each individual run.


Rushes of 4+ yards
as a percentage of total rushes
2014 236 of 507 46.5%
2015 121 of 288 42.0%

Rushes of 7+ yards
as a percentage of total rushes
2014 115 of 507 22.7%
2015 63 of 288 21.9%

Rushes of 10+ yards
as a percentage of total rushes
2014 61 of 507 12.0%
2015 35 of 288 12.2%

Rushes for no gain or loss
as a percentage of total rushes
2014 110 of 507 21.7%
2015 54 of 288 18.8%

At the extremes, we've been better this year. In between, we were better last year. Since the "in-between" categories make up the bulk of our rushes, I have to give the edge to 2014. But this edge is strongly affected by the presence of a downfield passing threat in 2014 that has mostly been absent in 2015. During the 0-7 stretch, there were a few games in which we almost didn't even try to pass beyond 10 yards past the line of scrimmage.


Targets of 10+ yards as a percentage of total attempts
2014 Romo 37.5%
2015 Romo 38.6%
2015 Cassel 29.4%
2015 Weeden 29.2%

Pass rating on those targets
2014 Romo 121.3
2015 Romo 118.4
2015 Cassel 68.4
2015 Weeden 76.0

For most of the season, the 2015 running game has been handicapped by the lack of a downfield passing threat. Even so, the results have been comparable to last year's. The 2015 Cowboys are leading the NFL in time of possession per drive, after being 2nd last year. That hasn't translated into victories this year, just as it wasn't the main reason for the 12 wins last year. But it's proof that the offense, especially the running game, has done what the coaches have intended it to do with regard to ball control, even without a real passing attack. Of course, without a real passing attack, this ball control has been basically worthless, but Romo's return gives it worth.


Going into the season, I wasn't worried about yards per carry or controling the clock, but I was concerned about short yardage. There had been a clear advantage for Murray over the other backs we'd used in short-yardage situations over the last four years. This year, McFadden has converted 14 of 17 times in short yardage/goal line situations, so now there are no worries except whether he can stay healthy. He's been even better than Murray was in this area.

Red Zone and Goal line
TD percentage
from or inside 10-yard line
2014 29 rushes, 10 TD 34.5%
2015 11 rushes, 5 TD 45.5%

from or inside 5-yard line
2014 17 rushes, 9 TD 52.9%
2015 7 rushes, 5 TD 71.4%

goal line (from 1- or 2-yard lines)
2014 8 rushes, 8 TD 100%
2015 7 rushes, 5 TD 71.4%

Short Yardage
3rd or 4th down, 1-2 yards to go
2014 31 rushes, 22 fd 71.0%
2015 18 rushes, 14 fd 77.8%

Combined short yardage/goal line
2014 37 rushes, 28 fd 75.7%
2015 25 rushes, 19 fd 76.0%

Thanks to the Zone for giving me 10,000 opportunities to celebrate, complain, share a laugh, spread some truth, have an argument, and show my ignorance. And Happy Thanksgiving.

Excellent analysis, Percy. That's really amazing when you think of it in terms of who the quarterbacks have been. Defenses have had no reason to respect the Cowboys passing game for the majority of the season, I like them to load up against the run. 4.6 YPC is amazing.

 

[DandyDon52]

Is that to fit the "we should have spent a gazillion to keep the running back" narrative? With or without Murray this team is 3-7 without Romo.

"gazillion"....??? wow so now it is up that high ?? lol
it was fair market value, and less than what they paid crawford, who was the one overpaid.
Would rather have given that money to murray and replace crawford.

also had they kept murray romo would not have got hurt in philly.
The whole course of events would have been changed, so good chance romo makes it thru the year.

It took dallas half the season to find the right rb and get run game going good, that isnt good.

They should have signed murray, and signed dez back up in april, so they could keep him in shape and in all the activities etc, and maybe he
doesnt get hurt either.

 

[DandyDon52]

Counting the playoffs, the running game lost six fumbles in 18 games last season. (Peppers stripped Murray in the playoffs for the sixth one.)

AP already has 6 fumbles this year, so he has more than murray and the season isnt over yet.
Also i dont know if we have had as many carries per game as last year.

 

[VACowboy]

Great stuff, as always, Percy.

 

[TrailBlazer]

This oline hasn't opened up holes like they did last year. I don't need stats to tell me that. Hopefully with romo back things improve.

 

[CCBoy]

Question: How much more carries can we reasonably expect out of Turbin this week? It will still be just a week since he got here.

Moore: He got seven in his Cowboys debut against Miami, which is surprising when you consider he was only with the team for five days before the game. It's not unreasonable to think he could get 10-12 carries Thursday depending on how the game unfolds.

Question: Can Darren McFadden hold up with this workload? I feel a pulled hamstring coming any day.

Moore: That's the question. Even if he's not hurt, can he sustain this production with this workload. Let's look at what happened the previous two times he rushed for 100 yards this season. After McFadden rushed for 152 yards against the Giants he came back with 20 carries for 64 yards in the next game. After rushing for 117 yards against Philadelphia, he came back with 17 carries for 32 yards. The Cowboys can't afford that kind of performance against Carolina.


http://www.***BANNED-URL***/sports/...forward-if-mcfadden-can-keep-up-this-pace.ece

 

[Craig]

AP already has 6 fumbles this year, so he has more than murray and the season isnt over yet.
Also i dont know if we have had as many carries per game as last year.

I promise you, no matter how many carries they have per game, the percentage of fumbles per carry is lower than it was last year.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

consistency & Physicality was the key to last year's running game. It was good all year long.

starting to come alive this year.

Yes.... And McFadden CAN and DOES get those dirty yards too!

 

[dallasdave]

Need to run like the wind today !!!!

 

[kevm3]

What made the running game so great last year wasn't that Murray was busting off huge runs. It was that he was almost always going forward and he was nearly automatic on 3rd down. It's one of the reasons we were able to close games out so effectively. McFadden has been doing a very nice job of running this year, but I don't have the 'automatic' feeling on 3rd downs like last year. Maybe Turbin will provide that.

 

[percyhoward]

What made the running game so great last year wasn't that Murray was busting off huge runs. It was that he was almost always going forward and he was nearly automatic on 3rd down. It's one of the reasons we were able to close games out so effectively. McFadden has been doing a very nice job of running this year, but I don't have the 'automatic' feeling on 3rd downs like last year.

Please read the first post of this thread.