Thoughts on driverless cars

[waldoputty]

Once that Genie is out of the bottle, it's over. We are going to have horrible economic issues, where our jobs markets are concerned. I am not looking forward to this at all.

it is already out of the bottle.
there is too much at stake where all automotive manufacturers and many tech giants are vying for the business.
and i mean google, apple, intel, nvidia (gaming), samsung, qualcomm and just about every internet conglomerate in china.
70 million cars per year = trillion dollar market

 

[Cowboys_22]

because she needs something to hold on to

 

[Roadtrip635]

true, but it is happening.
here are a few examples.
because of the labor shortage and overtime-pay policies in california, strawberry farmers are not happy. over 2/3 of strawberry farmers in the US have invested in a robotic startup for picking strawberries.
lettuce farmers have an option to buy robotic lettuce leave pickers - and that startup was acquired by john deere for $305 million last september.
uber operating margins will ~double if they can go driverless

it is going to happen, and it is a matter of time.

in a decade or two, a lot of jobs are going to vaporize.

This is an application where I think it's a great idea. There is a growing shortage of labor and an immediate need. All jobs wouldn't be eliminated as there would still be needed in other phases of the operation. The risk is also much lower, if a piece of tech doesn't work quite right, you crush a few strawberries, on the roadway, you crush a few people.

 

[waldoputty]

This is an application where I think it's a great idea. There is a growing shortage of labor and an immediate need. All jobs wouldn't be eliminated as there would still be needed in other phases of the operation. The risk is also much lower, if a piece of tech doesn't work quite right, you crush a few strawberries, on the roadway, you crush a few people.

that is true, but robotic replacement of human labor will march on.
obviously the most labor-intensive part of the work would be the ones robotics would be developed for.

 

[Roadtrip635]

it is already out of the bottle.
there is too much at stake where all automotive manufacturers and many tech giants are vying for the business.
70 million cars per year = trillion dollar market

That's where some of my concern is coming from and already touched upon. The amount of money at stake is going to entice these companies to release tech before it's fully developed and there are real consequences involved.

 

[waldoputty]

That's where some of my concern is coming from and already touched upon. The amount of money at stake is going to entice these companies to release tech before it's fully developed and there are real consequences involved.

you are right.
to start, an accident is too easy if the radar ignores stationary vehicles.
also the inability to differentiate overpass from the side of a truck is troubling.
all this is solvable but needs another year or so.
tech is always evolving but if i was running tesla, i would personally not have released that capability knowing people would abuse it.
but there is a reason why he makes the big money...

 

[Roadtrip635]

you are right.
tech is always evolving but if i was running tesla, i would personally not have released that capability knowing people would abuse it.
to start, an accident is too easy if the radar ignores stationary vehicles.

I sure financial concerns was a big factor, in making the decision to release their tech. That type of "real world testing" doesn't inspire confidence, especially to those already skeptical, like myself. Unfortunately, it harms the perception and acceptance from those companies trying to do their due diligence and fully test their tech. Even though, you have no ties to Tesla, I'm sure people ask all the time about them and use them as a negative example, kinda like what's happened in some of this thread

 

[waldoputty]

I sure financial concerns was a big factor, in making the decision to release their tech. That type of "real world testing" doesn't inspire confidence, especially to those already skeptical, like myself. Unfortunately, it harms the perception and acceptance from those companies trying to do their due diligence and fully test their tech. Even though, you have no ties to Tesla, I'm sure people ask all the time about them and use them as a negative example, kinda like what's happened in some of this thread

it does not hurt us because the economic impetus driving this is so big that some accidents will not stop it.
some states may stop testing, but we are not ready for testing.
for every state that stop, new ones will open up.

tesla's mistakes actually help us.
we are directly point to their problems when we do fundraising.
i actually spend time reading articles about what their problem is.
i also quote elon musk's twitter posts when writing a business plan.
i actually asked engineering whether we can try to do an upgrade kit for tesla for detecting stationary objects.

i started the thread because i wanted to see what people in the real world think.
feedback is enlightening.
and now there is one scenario (enormous huge puddle) that I have not thought of.

 

[Reverend Conehead]

You can already do that with a drone.

...wait. A suicide bomber is nothing more than a drone anyhow right?

I've been concerned about drones also. I suspect the next assassination will be via a modified consumer drone. I hope not, but it would not surprise me.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

it is already out of the bottle.
there is too much at stake where all automotive manufacturers and many tech giants are vying for the business.
70 million cars per year = trillion dollar market

no, its not yet but its only a matter of time.

 

[waldoputty]

no, its not yet but its only a matter of time.

actually in use and also under test:
>100 robotic Catepillar tractors operate in australian mines
many driverless trucks with backup drivers are being tester in arizona and other states by multiple companies and also in china
driverless taxi's operate in san jose with backup driver
autonomous lettuce leave picking tractors are in use and the startup was acquired by John Deere
the day after the UBER fatal accident (not the one from last week), china allowed limited testing of driverless cars in its capital beijing.
about 50 or so companies testing driverless cars in california.
engineering manager told me it only takes 5-10 engineer at most 1 year to get prototype system out.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

actually in use and also under test:
>100 robotic Catepillar tractors operate in australian mines
many driverless trucks with backup drivers are being tester in arizona and other states by multiple companies and also in china
driverless taxi's operate in san jose with backup driver
autonomous lettuce leave picking tractors are in use and the startup was acquired by John Deere
the day after the UBER fatal accident (not the one from last week), china allowed limited testing of driverless cars in its capital beijing.
about 50 or so companies testing driverless cars in california.
engineering manager told me it only takes 5-10 engineer at most 1 year to get prototype system out.

The Farming industry has been automated for a long, long time but in truth, that job market went away a long time ago and it wasn't really because of intelligent automation. Taxi Drivers are in their infancy and the Lawsuits have not started yet. Once the legal part of this is settled, that's when you hit the point of no return. As it stands now, all of this could be blocked by simple legislation. It has no popular support, to speak of, with the General Public. Intelligent devices have been around for a very long time so a business here and there testing it is really not a "Genie out of the bottle" type thing. It's when te rule of law is tested and accepted as law that signals a point of no return IMO.

 

[Roadtrip635]

it does not hurt us because the economic impetus driving this is so big that some accidents will not stop it.
some states may stop testing, but we are not ready for testing.
for every state that stop, new ones will open up.

tesla's mistakes actually help us.
we are directly point to their problems when we do fundraising.
i actually spend time reading articles about what their problem is.
i also quote elon musk's twitter posts when writing a business plan.
i actually asked engineering whether we can try to do an upgrade kit for tesla for detecting stationary objects.

i started the thread because i wanted to see what people in the real world think.
feedback is enlightening.
and now there is one scenario (enormous huge puddle) that I have not thought of.

I guess I meant more about the general public perception from someone not in the industry, when we hear about these accidents

I live in Texas and we have potholes, but after driving in other states, it makes me more appreciative how better maintained our roads are in general. I remember driving in Louisiana one time and I got on a stretch of road that I couldn't even call potholes, more like small craters like it had been hit by a meteor storm.

We do have a couple of city underpasses here, that fill when it rains and it's hard to tell if it's a couple inches or a couple feet. The city usually closes them off during heavy rain, but if you don't know or unfortunate to try and drive through before they barricade, you could end up swimming out.

 

[waldoputty]

The Farming industry has been automated for a long, long time but in truth, that job market went away a long time ago and it wasn't really because of intelligent automation. Taxi Drivers are in their infancy and the Lawsuits have not started yet. Once the legal part of this is settled, that's when you hit the point of no return. As it stands now, all of this could be blocked by simple legislation. It has no popular support, to speak of, with the General Public. Intelligent devices have been around for a very long time so a business here and there testing it is really not a "Genie out of the bottle" type thing. It's when te rule of law is tested and accepted as law that signals a point of no return IMO.

yea, but the legislation is for safety, not protecting the taxi driver.
if it is safe, it is an unstoppable force because the rest of the world is going that way.
many companies, us and foreign, are looking at this opportunity to get into automotive.
and so are countries that want the automotive jobs.
imo, there is no way the us gets out of this business unless large number of accidents are happening.
given the way trials are happening with backup drivers, i dont believe large number of accidents are going to happen.
you can get the tesla stuff going on because musk put it into a product before it was ready.
but that will be worked out or tesla is in deep doo-doo

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

yea, but the legislation is for safety, not protecting the taxi driver.
if it is safe, it is an unstoppable force because the rest of the world is going that way.
many companies, us and foreign, are looking at this opportunity to get into automotive.
and so are countries that want the automotive jobs.
imo, there is no way the us gets out of this business unless large number of accidents are happening.
given the way trials are happening with backup drivers, i dont believe large number of accidents are going to happen.
you can get the tesla stuff going on because musk put it into a product before it was ready.
but that will be worked out or tesla is in deep doo-doo

Nothing is unstoppable. Everything swings on public opinion.

 

[YosemiteSam]

Nothing is unstoppable. Everything swings on public opinion.

...and public opinion is swayed by social media because most people can't think for themselves. So, dollars are invested in social media to sway opinions. In other words, it is unstoppable.

 

[Xelda]

I guess I meant more about the general public perception from someone not in the industry, when we hear about these accidents

I live in Texas and we have potholes, but after driving in other states, it makes me more appreciative how better maintained our roads are in general. I remember driving in Louisiana one time and I got on a stretch of road that I couldn't even call potholes, more like small craters like it had been hit by a meteor storm.

We do have a couple of city underpasses here, that fill when it rains and it's hard to tell if it's a couple inches or a couple feet. The city usually closes them off during heavy rain, but if you don't know or unfortunate to try and drive through before they barricade, you could end up swimming out.

That's an accurate description. I live in Louisiana. They put a warning sign up about a bump and I started to sweat. The roads are so horrible, one could only imagine the size of the bump to require a warning. They are doing a great deal of highway construction in certain parts of the city. I wanted to pull over and yell at them to make sure they screw the roads up properly so people will know what state they're in.

I'm not sure if driverless cars. They have to be better than some drivers though.

 

[waldoputty]

I guess I meant more about the general public perception from someone not in the industry, when we hear about these accidents

I live in Texas and we have potholes, but after driving in other states, it makes me more appreciative how better maintained our roads are in general. I remember driving in Louisiana one time and I got on a stretch of road that I couldn't even call potholes, more like small craters like it had been hit by a meteor storm.

We do have a couple of city underpasses here, that fill when it rains and it's hard to tell if it's a couple inches or a couple feet. The city usually closes them off during heavy rain, but if you don't know or unfortunate to try and drive through before they barricade, you could end up swimming out.

i just drove over a huge pot hole on highway 710 near long beach which is about 40 miles south of LA. it destroyed my tire.

yea, the huge puddle is a real issue and it really does not make sense for an autonomous car to have no manual controls. impossible to predict all possible scenarios in the 1st 2 generations of tech.

 

[CouchCoach]

Ain't no way ole CC is putting his old bones in a machine to drive me. The machines want to take over, saw that on The Terminator just last week, they still haven't given up. Now, if they come with a babe in the back seat to occupy ole CC so he doesn't get bored, I am open to reconsider.

 

[Roadtrip635]

Ain't no way ole CC is putting his old bones in a machine to drive me. The machines want to take over, saw that on The Terminator just last week, they still haven't given up. Now, if they come with a babe in the back seat to occupy ole CC so he doesn't get bored, I am open to reconsider.

It comes with a babe, but she'll be a robot, so you'll have a whole Terminator/Westworld thing going on.