Trading For the 1 Overall Pick to Get the QB: Would You Do It?

[CowboyoWales]

Yeah, I get it. You're right, drafting a QB with the #1 overall pick does not guarantee a Super Bowl.

But it sure does increase the odds:

Out of 58 Super Bowls, the winning quarterback was a 1st round pick 32 times or 52% of the time. They were the #1 overall pick 18 of those times. They were a top ten pick 27 times.

Eleven quarterbacks have won multiple Super Bowls. Six of them were drafted #1 overall

Of course, this is a step to be taken only if he is a consensus blue chip with the proper physical traits and college resume. It could be that none of them impress enough to make the trade.

But using a recency factor, what does that look like in say the last 20 years?

 

[CowboyoWales]

I honestly believe if this team had Pat Mahomes last year, it could not have won a SB. That roster last year, though good at several positions, was still sorely lacking on defense at DT and LB. Neither Joe Montana, Tom Brady, nor Pat Mahomes could rescue this team by themselves.

So, let's fix those holes first, no point in paying Dak if there's so many issues.

 

[DandyDon52]

There doesn't seem to be a clear choice for the best QB prospect in next year's draft. There is no Elway or Aikman, or Manning. There is no "generational savior". The pro football analysts draft gurus seem split between three college players.

I know who the favorite is among most fans here. Of course, this will clear up at the end of next season.

My question is, could three 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick secure next year's #1 pick overall? If it could, would you be willing to make that trade?

Would you be willing to trade the Cowboys #1 picks for 2025, 2026, and 2027 plus the 2nd pick in 2025 for the 1st pick overall in the 2025 draft?

For the most part, the Cowboys do pretty good in the 1st round, 2023 draft notwithstanding. In fact, they may do too good. They are presently considering close to the max contract for two of the most recent to stay with the team.

If the Cowboys make the trade and get a QB, the Cowboys could set their future as well as alleviate some cap issues. They could sign both Lamb and Parsons with no problem. As for the #1 overall pick, it's the highest rookie contract but still a rookie contract It is still far, far lower than the alternative Dak contract.

Dak would play out his contract this season, Trey would be traded at some advantageous point. Rush may or may not stay, depending. He may even start a few games in 2025 before the #1 pick becomes the official starter. Realistically, the Cowboys could take some lumps that season.

The Cowboys wouldn't have a 1st round picks for two years but wouldn't that cash help contract negotiations for guys like Daron Bland, Tyler Smith, and Jake Ferguson?

The obvious question would be whether there is a worthy prospect once the dust settles from the 2024 college season. We know there are seasons when the #1 overall pick isn't even a quarterback. Since 2000 this has happened on an average of every four years, so it is possible. It's also possible that one of these quarterbacks separates himself from the rest and is a clear cut #1.

So....

Would you give up three #1's and a #2 for Shedeur Sanders?

How about Carson Beck from Georgia or Quinn Ewers from Texas?

You would have to be sure about the qb, so it could be any year, I would research qb's every year and know if there is a good one in the coming draft.
If not one worth the trade up, then I would wait till next year and so forth.
Also if you know one is coming, you could tank, and not give up any picks!

 

[Creeper]

Unless there is a sure thing, can't miss prospect, with all the leadership qualities of an Aikman or Brady, I am not giving up all that draft capital for anyone. Too much of a gamble for me.

But if there was an guy with arm talent, smarts, and leadership abilities, a guy with a hate to lose attitude, I might be willing to trade a lot to get him.

 

[Maverick84]

I hate special about him?

he meant "comes out" of the closet

 

[Setackin]

I hate special about him?

Huh?

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Huh?

Sorry not sure why my stuff keeps getting autocorrected I’m saying what’s special about him?

 

[Setackin]

What has he done??????
So far he can't beat out the guy in front of him.

1) the guy ahead of him seems to be a top 5 pick.
2) the Mannings seem to be prioritizing classroom development.
3) he’s a Manning, he’s floor is probably average NFL starter.

 

[plasticman]

But using a recency factor, what does that look like in say the last 20 years?

The past 20 years gives us a precise method for drafting an elite, Super Bowl winning quarterback:

Wait until the 6th round and take him with the 199th overall pick.

I mean, c'mon, is that fair? We are talking about the era of "the GOAT". Tom Edward Patrick Brady screwed up all the playoff stats. He padded them to a ridiculous level.

However, if you were to factor him out and replace him with the starting QB of the SB losing team during Brady's seven victories?

You would have Patrick Mahomes (#10 overall draft pick), Donovan McNabb (#2 overall draft pick), Matt Ryan (#3 overall draft pick) and Jared Goff (#1 overall draft pick) as four of the seven QB's that lost to Brady.

The rest of the winning QB's in the past 20 seasons would include Eli and Peyton Manning, both twice included and both #1 overalll draft picks. It would also include Mathew Stafford, another #1 overall pick.

The starting QB for the winning SB team the past 20 seasons was a 1st round pick in 12 of those games. Then there was Brady in 5 of the past 20 (actually 7 in the past 25 years), a top pick in the 2nd round (Drew Brees), and two 3rd round picks (Russel Wilson and Nick Foles).

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

I agree that an elite QB prospect is key. This team has been spinning its wheels for too long. To acquire the draft capital needed, the team could trade high dollar players instead of giving up years of future #1 draft picks. The salary cap dollars freed up help offset the loss of draft picks.

Trade Parsons for example. He's worth at least two #1 picks, but consider also the free agent talent his cap savings could bring in. What's his next contract going to be? $30 Million? That brings in a lot of quality free agent talent. That trade could give Dallas an elite QB prospect AND 3-4 really good free agents instead of one player (Parsons).

 

[John813]

A lot can change in a year, a la Joe Burrows rise and success at LSU and then turning out to be a damn good QB in the NFL.

But as of now, no, I wouldn't be in favor of trading that much capital now when none of the prospects seem to be 1st overall worthy.

 

[Forneymike]

There doesn't seem to be a clear choice for the best QB prospect in next year's draft. There is no Elway or Aikman, or Manning. There is no "generational savior". The pro football analysts draft gurus seem split between three college players.

I know who the favorite is among most fans here. Of course, this will clear up at the end of next season.

My question is, could three 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick secure next year's #1 pick overall? If it could, would you be willing to make that trade?

Would you be willing to trade the Cowboys #1 picks for 2025, 2026, and 2027 plus the 2nd pick in 2025 for the 1st pick overall in the 2025 draft?

For the most part, the Cowboys do pretty good in the 1st round, 2023 draft notwithstanding. In fact, they may do too good. They are presently considering close to the max contract for two of the most recent to stay with the team.

If the Cowboys make the trade and get a QB, the Cowboys could set their future as well as alleviate some cap issues. They could sign both Lamb and Parsons with no problem. As for the #1 overall pick, it's the highest rookie contract but still a rookie contract It is still far, far lower than the alternative Dak contract.

Dak would play out his contract this season, Trey would be traded at some advantageous point. Rush may or may not stay, depending. He may even start a few games in 2025 before the #1 pick becomes the official starter. Realistically, the Cowboys could take some lumps that season.

The Cowboys wouldn't have a 1st round picks for two years but wouldn't that cash help contract negotiations for guys like Daron Bland, Tyler Smith, and Jake Ferguson?

The obvious question would be whether there is a worthy prospect once the dust settles from the 2024 college season. We know there are seasons when the #1 overall pick isn't even a quarterback. Since 2000 this has happened on an average of every four years, so it is possible. It's also possible that one of these quarterbacks separates himself from the rest and is a clear cut #1.

So....

Would you give up three #1's and a #2 for Shedeur Sanders?

How about Carson Beck from Georgia or Quinn Ewers from Texas?

There is no QB this year and probably next year worth it. These guys will be good but about as productive as the current QB. They are winning many playoff games by themselves like this board expects. Maybe Manning when he comes out in a few years but if you get rid of Dak..just be bad for 4 or 5 years then see what is out there

 

[JoeKing]

There doesn't seem to be a clear choice for the best QB prospect in next year's draft. There is no Elway or Aikman, or Manning. There is no "generational savior". The pro football analysts draft gurus seem split between three college players.

I know who the favorite is among most fans here. Of course, this will clear up at the end of next season.

My question is, could three 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick secure next year's #1 pick overall? If it could, would you be willing to make that trade?

Would you be willing to trade the Cowboys #1 picks for 2025, 2026, and 2027 plus the 2nd pick in 2025 for the 1st pick overall in the 2025 draft?

For the most part, the Cowboys do pretty good in the 1st round, 2023 draft notwithstanding. In fact, they may do too good. They are presently considering close to the max contract for two of the most recent to stay with the team.

If the Cowboys make the trade and get a QB, the Cowboys could set their future as well as alleviate some cap issues. They could sign both Lamb and Parsons with no problem. As for the #1 overall pick, it's the highest rookie contract but still a rookie contract It is still far, far lower than the alternative Dak contract.

Dak would play out his contract this season, Trey would be traded at some advantageous point. Rush may or may not stay, depending. He may even start a few games in 2025 before the #1 pick becomes the official starter. Realistically, the Cowboys could take some lumps that season.

The Cowboys wouldn't have a 1st round picks for two years but wouldn't that cash help contract negotiations for guys like Daron Bland, Tyler Smith, and Jake Ferguson?

The obvious question would be whether there is a worthy prospect once the dust settles from the 2024 college season. We know there are seasons when the #1 overall pick isn't even a quarterback. Since 2000 this has happened on an average of every four years, so it is possible. It's also possible that one of these quarterbacks separates himself from the rest and is a clear cut #1.

So....

Would you give up three #1's and a #2 for Shedeur Sanders?

How about Carson Beck from Georgia or Quinn Ewers from Texas?

Hello no! You do not mortgage your future to enhance your present state of affairs.

 

[KJJ]

Unless you have a John Elway or Peyton Manning sitting there at number one overall NO WAY do you make that move. If there was an Elway or Peyton Manning sitting there, no one would trade the pick. The bust rate on QBs is far too high to risk all those draft picks to move up for a QB that could end up an average QB or a bust. Just in the last few years we’ve had several top five QBs go bust. Kyler Murray was the number one overall pick a few years ago and he hasn’t been that good. Trevor Lawrence, who was the fifth highest rated QB to ever enter the NFL draft hasn’t been that great. Bryce Young was the top overall pick last year and was a dud as a rookie. Carolina could’ve ended up with a much better QB prospect had they not made the trade.

The only team that traded up for a QB where it’s paid off big was KC trading up for Patrick Mahomes at number 10 overall. San Francisco blew it by trading up for Trey Lance. It’s a wonder that didn’t set them back, but it probably cost them a championship because they would’ve been even better had they had those draft picks they wasted. Drafting a QB is such a crapshoot. It’s a real risk trading up for one, especially to number one overall. If a team is willing to pass on a QB at number one overall I’m not about to trade the farm for them. No way!

 

[805BoysInBlue]

Wasn't Trevor Lawrence an all world talent and can't miss prospect? He's a good QB but no where near even top 5.

 

[KJJ]

If a QB that falls to you ends up a bust, I can live with that but it’s a tough pill to swallow if you trade up for a QB and they go bust, especially if you trade up to number one overall for one. The Cowboys tried trading up for Paxton Lynch and Connor Cook, and both those QBs were out of the league and just a few short seasons. We went with a QB that fell to us and we got lucky. By the way, can anyone think of a team that’s traded up to number one overall for a QB at least in the past decade or so? No one passes on a potentially great QB at number one overall. I’m sure it’s happened many years ago, but I can’t think of a situation off the top of my head.

 

[KJJ]

Wasn't Trevor Lawrence an all world talent and can't miss prospect? He's a good QB but no where near even top 5.

He was the fifth highest rated QB to ever enter the NFL draft and hasn’t come close to living up to it. If he would’ve been a third or fourth round pick no way does Jacksonville sign him to that contract. In three seasons he’s10 games under 500 and his career numbers are average. His numbers last season regressed over the previous season. He hasn’t been that good. I wouldn’t want him. Jacksonville is banking he’ll get better and develop into a great QB. He’s shown flashes, but the consistency hasn’t been there.

 

[blueblood70]

There doesn't seem to be a clear choice for the best QB prospect in next year's draft. There is no Elway or Aikman, or Manning. There is no "generational savior". The pro football analysts draft gurus seem split between three college players.

I know who the favorite is among most fans here. Of course, this will clear up at the end of next season.

My question is, could three 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick secure next year's #1 pick overall? If it could, would you be willing to make that trade?

Would you be willing to trade the Cowboys #1 picks for 2025, 2026, and 2027 plus the 2nd pick in 2025 for the 1st pick overall in the 2025 draft?

For the most part, the Cowboys do pretty good in the 1st round, 2023 draft notwithstanding. In fact, they may do too good. They are presently considering close to the max contract for two of the most recent to stay with the team.

If the Cowboys make the trade and get a QB, the Cowboys could set their future as well as alleviate some cap issues. They could sign both Lamb and Parsons with no problem. As for the #1 overall pick, it's the highest rookie contract but still a rookie contract It is still far, far lower than the alternative Dak contract.

Dak would play out his contract this season, Trey would be traded at some advantageous point. Rush may or may not stay, depending. He may even start a few games in 2025 before the #1 pick becomes the official starter. Realistically, the Cowboys could take some lumps that season.

The Cowboys wouldn't have a 1st round picks for two years but wouldn't that cash help contract negotiations for guys like Daron Bland, Tyler Smith, and Jake Ferguson?

The obvious question would be whether there is a worthy prospect once the dust settles from the 2024 college season. We know there are seasons when the #1 overall pick isn't even a quarterback. Since 2000 this has happened on an average of every four years, so it is possible. It's also possible that one of these quarterbacks separates himself from the rest and is a clear cut #1.

So....

Would you give up three #1's and a #2 for Shedeur Sanders?

How about Carson Beck from Georgia or Quinn Ewers from Texas?

You do realize you would have to absolutely suck this year because there's no way we can afford to give that many draft picks to move up from like in the 20s to number one...


I mean look at how many draft picks San Francisco gave up three to move up to what 5th to get Trey Lance ,

no I wouldn't do it ,

unless we were really bad and already say around 10 this year... From what I hear the next two years there aren't very many good quarterbacks in the draft..

so why would you pull a big move like that? Dude I've watched Quinn , I'm a Longhorn fan and I don't even think he should be starting over manning this year without actual competition. In my opinion unless he grows none of these quarterbacks are good but Quinn he don't look like a pro ready quarterback he don't even look as good as Colt McCoy I think it's a travesty at Texas not letting manning really compete for the job this year and just handing it to Quinn I don't care what they did as a team last year I watch him play he just does not scream pro.

I mean this year will have to play out in college but from what I saw last year what might be coming down the Pike looked like a bunch of fourth round draft picks good luck with trading your future in the worst possible time to try to find a quarterback would be the next two drafts... I mean that is just my opinion I'm an amateurish guy I'm looking at these guys but I'm telling you right now this is not the time to do that you better hope they sign Prescott because this is becoming more and more annoying every day watching more and more posts about how we can replace Prescott and without wasting draft picks for some aged out old guys who are not any better than Prescott and then paying them a pretty hefty price or reaching in a draft when is not the type of draft you would reach in...

 

[blueblood70]

If a QB that falls to you ends up a bust, I can live with that but it’s a tough pill to swallow if you trade up for a QB and they go bust, especially if you trade up to number one overall for one. The Cowboys tried trading up for Paxton Lynch and Connor Cook, and both those QBs were out of the league and just a few short seasons. We went with a QB that fell to us and we got lucky. By the way, can anyone think of a team that’s traded up to number one overall for a QB at least in the past decade or so? No one passes on a potentially great QB at number one overall. I’m sure it’s happened many years ago, but I can’t think of a situation off the top of my head.

100% I mean this is in my opinion is the worst crop of college draft quarterbacks coming out in the next two years and now you want to play around with trying to move up with basically wasting your next three drafts to pick a guy that's probably a fourth round pick at best in the 1st place it in my opinion would be the worst possible time to reach for a quarterback in the draft..

I think it's hilarious they're using names like Sanders and Quinn I mean Quinn users I'm a Longhorn fan and I don't even believe he should be starting over manning... Have you seen Texas quarterbacks in the pros and the best one lately probably Colt McCoy is the last even decent one that had a chance in the NFL and he's a backup at best.. I don't even see Quinn Ewers as being as good as Colt McCoy at least not right now. Maybe he'll change my mind but I see a guy with a average arm's lack of anticipation I mean he floats a lot of balls you know like he uses all that talent they've had the last two years just kind of Chuck it up now I know he's had some good moments but I just don't see a pro caliber guy a first round draft pick in Ewers..

And at this point and we don't have proof we have to see how this year plays out but people throwing away at Sanders name as if this guy is not even as good as fuels I don't see this guy being a first round quarterback except for the fact that there's nobody else to pick from but I don't give you a reason to go trade up a draft to go get him like you said let him fall to you pick him. yeah..

 

[blueblood70]

There doesn't seem to be a clear choice for the best QB prospect in next year's draft. There is no Elway or Aikman, or Manning. There is no "generational savior". The pro football analysts draft gurus seem split between three college players.

I know who the favorite is among most fans here. Of course, this will clear up at the end of next season.

My question is, could three 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick secure next year's #1 pick overall? If it could, would you be willing to make that trade?

Would you be willing to trade the Cowboys #1 picks for 2025, 2026, and 2027 plus the 2nd pick in 2025 for the 1st pick overall in the 2025 draft?

For the most part, the Cowboys do pretty good in the 1st round, 2023 draft notwithstanding. In fact, they may do too good. They are presently considering close to the max contract for two of the most recent to stay with the team.

If the Cowboys make the trade and get a QB, the Cowboys could set their future as well as alleviate some cap issues. They could sign both Lamb and Parsons with no problem. As for the #1 overall pick, it's the highest rookie contract but still a rookie contract It is still far, far lower than the alternative Dak contract.

Dak would play out his contract this season, Trey would be traded at some advantageous point. Rush may or may not stay, depending. He may even start a few games in 2025 before the #1 pick becomes the official starter. Realistically, the Cowboys could take some lumps that season.

The Cowboys wouldn't have a 1st round picks for two years but wouldn't that cash help contract negotiations for guys like Daron Bland, Tyler Smith, and Jake Ferguson?

The obvious question would be whether there is a worthy prospect once the dust settles from the 2024 college season. We know there are seasons when the #1 overall pick isn't even a quarterback. Since 2000 this has happened on an average of every four years, so it is possible. It's also possible that one of these quarterbacks separates himself from the rest and is a clear cut #1.

So....

Would you give up three #1's and a #2 for Shedeur Sanders?

How about Carson Beck from Georgia or Quinn Ewers from Texas?

Ohh I see is third round and below quarterbacks that are going to be reaches there's no way you trade a hall to get those dudes when you probably have them on your team right now you'd be better off finding one in the UFL in my opinion or you just get a mid-level guy to bridge the gap if Prescott doesn't come back you better pray Prescott does come back because just looking at the next two drafts it's scary how weak the talent is coming out of college...