Trading For the 1 Overall Pick to Get the QB: Would You Do It?

[kskboys]

Great post! But I'll guarantee 90%of those Superbowl winning quarterbacks you've mentioned had a few things in common....

1. Their teams were solid in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

2. They had solid running games.

3. They had very good offensive coordinators.

And the big one, great D's.

 

[Chasing6]

Yeah, I get it. You're right, drafting a QB with the #1 overall pick does not guarantee a Super Bowl.

But it sure does increase the odds:

Out of 58 Super Bowls, the winning quarterback was a 1st round pick 32 times or 52% of the time. They were the #1 overall pick 18 of those times. They were a top ten pick 27 times.

Eleven quarterbacks have won multiple Super Bowls. Six of them were drafted #1 overall

Of course, this is a step to be taken only if he is a consensus blue chip with the proper physical traits and college resume. It could be that none of them impress enough to make the trade.

How many were with there original team that drafted them???

 

[Chasing6]

How many were with their original team that drafted them???

 

[kskboys]

You answered your own question w/ a snowstorm?

 

[plymkr]

We won't have to do that. They will either extend Dak, in which case the bed is made for the next 3-4 years, or they will let him walk without much of a fight because we were terrible. In that case we are much higher in the draft order.

Agree. Either we’ll be locked in with Dak or picking in the top 5. If picking in the top 5 and we want to trade up it wouldn’t be as brutal. Then that would be a different discussion.

 

[Chasing6]

Agree. Either we’ll be locked in with Dak or picking in the top 5. If picking in the top 5 and we want to trade up it wouldn’t be as brutal. Then that would be a different discussion.

If Dak is healthy and plays all season we will not be picking in the top 5 next year. If Dak walks we have no QB's on the roster. Who knows what decision GM Jethro will make to hang out and get dunked on at the rim in 2025.

 

[Cowboys5217]

I only make that trade with a near can't miss pick like an Elway or Aikman, Manning, etc. If I don't see that guy then I'll just use one first round pick and take my chances in the draft each year until I can make that deal, or I find one in the first round.

 

[Chasing6]

I only make that trade with a near can't miss pick like an Elway or Aikman, Manning, etc. If I don't see that guy then I'll just use one first round pick and take my chances in the draft each year until I can make that deal, or I find one in the first round.

I don't believe any such player exists. I don't believe there has been any QB that will automatically be successful on any time in the league.

 

[plasticman]

How many were with there original team that drafted them???

What does it matter? The point is that they were elite quarterbacks almost from the beginning. They had all the physical tools. They had plenty of game experience as starters in college and they played great. They had a resume of elite productivity.

If you really wanted to punch a hole in my theory then you would ask how many current QB's, drafted #1 overall or, at least, drafted in the top ten, have actually won Super Bowls. I'm assuming the 20 drafts dating 2004 to 2023 because the 2024 class has yet to step on the field in the NFL.

Well, in those past twenty seasons, there have been 14 QB's drafted #1 overall. Two (*Eli Manning and Stafford) have won a total of three Super Bowls.

There has been an additional QB (Mahomes) drafted #10 overall and he has won three Super Bowls.

However, let me point out that 9 of those 14 QB's are still active. Their stories are still being written. In addition, two more Super Bowls were won by a QB (Peyton Manning) drafted #1 overall previous to the 20 year span we are looking at.

Also, while they didn't win, two QB's (Burrow and Goff) drafted #1 overall took their team to the Super Bowl. Two others (Peyton Manning and Newton), drafted earlier, did the same.

There was also one (McNabb) drafted #2 overall and one (Ryan) drafted #3 overall in previous drafts that took their team to the Super Bowl but lost in the past 20 seasons.

The bottom line is this:

If the Cowboys are going to be risk takers and gamble like they have been, then go where the odds are the best for success.

If only one QB in the past twenty seasons that was drafted below the 3rd round has won a Super Bowl then what does that tell us?

If only one undrafted QB has ever won a Super Bowl, what does that tell us?

If the frequency of Super Bowl winning QB's generally increase as the draft pick number climbs upward towards the #1 overall spot, then what does that tell us?

It all leads to the conclusion that if you are going to gamble on a QB, then you increase your odds of success the higher you go in the draft to go get him.

There is no 100% formula, not even 50%. However, going into the undrafted and lower draft rounds hoping to stumble upon the next Tom Brady gives us the lowest probability of success........clearly illustrated by the Cowboys over the past 20+ seasons.

 

[Chasing6]

What does it matter? The point is that they were elite quarterbacks almost from the beginning. They had all the physical tools. They had plenty of game experience as starters in college and they played great. They had a resume of elite productivity.

If you really wanted to punch a hole in my theory then you would ask how many current QB's, drafted #1 overall or, at least, drafted in the top ten, have actually won Super Bowls. I'm assuming the 20 drafts dating 2004 to 2023 because the 2024 class has yet to step on the field in the NFL.

Well, in those past twenty seasons, there have been 14 QB's drafted #1 overall. Two (*Eli Manning and Stafford) have won a total of three Super Bowls.

There has been an additional QB (Mahomes) drafted #10 overall and he has won three Super Bowls.

However, let me point out that 9 of those 14 QB's are still active. Their stories are still being written. In addition, two more Super Bowls were won by a QB (Peyton Manning) drafted #1 overall previous to the 20 year span we are looking at.

Also, while they didn't win, two QB's (Burrow and Goff) drafted #1 overall took their team to the Super Bowl. Two others (Peyton Manning and Newton), drafted earlier, did the same.

There was also one (McNabb) drafted #2 overall and one (Ryan) drafted #3 overall in previous drafts that took their team to the Super Bowl but lost in the past 20 seasons.

The bottom line is this:

If the Cowboys are going to be risk takers and gamble like they have been, then go where the odds are the best for success.

If only one QB in the past twenty seasons that was drafted below the 3rd round has won a Super Bowl then what does that tell us?

If only one undrafted QB has ever won a Super Bowl, what does that tell us?

If the frequency of Super Bowl winning QB's generally increase as the draft pick number climbs upward towards the #1 overall spot, then what does that tell us?

It all leads to the conclusion that if you are going to gamble on a QB, then you increase your odds of success the higher you go in the draft to go get him.

There is no 100% formula, not even 50%. However, going into the undrafted and lower draft rounds hoping to stumble upon the next Tom Brady gives us the lowest probability of success........clearly illustrated by the Cowboys over the past 20+ seasons.

So Trent Dilfer was an elite QB. He was drafted in the first round.

It makes a huge difference. We are talking about using a high draft pick and or possible even multiple in a trade up. If these top don't win with their drafted team and become free agents and win a SB on another team, that just proves you don't need draft them, and they can be found in Free Agency.

 

[plasticman]

Hello no! You do not mortgage your future to enhance your present state of affairs.

What kind of future?

If it is anything like he past, then pass the paperwork, I'm signing the mortgage.

Besides, that QB will be my present and my future. I'll just pretend we drafted another Taco Charlton and Mazi Smith the next two drafts.

Again, I'm assuming an available prospect that is worth it, the Aikman/Manning/Luck/Burrow type.

 

[Chasing6]

So Trent Dilfer was an elite QB. He was drafted in the first round.

It makes a huge difference. We are talking about using a high draft pick and or possible even multiple in a trade up. If these top don't win with their drafted team and become free agents and win a SB on another team, that just proves you don't need draft them, and they can be found in Free Agency.

How many win a SB on their rookie contract? Why does that matter? Because they take time to develop before they can properly read an NFL defense, learn the offense and get adjusted to the speed of the game.

Why do you think QB's can play so long at an older age? Do you think they get more athletic as they get older? Of course not. It is because they now can read the game and everything has become slower and simpler for them due to experience.

GM's who are infatuated with athletic running QB's, that need development with a low floor/High Ceiling are dumb. Running QB'a get hurt. They rely too much on their athletic ability which only delays their ability to properly learn the game.

 

[plasticman]

So Trent Dilfer was an elite QB. He was drafted in the first round.

It makes a huge difference. We are talking about using a high draft pick and or possible even multiple in a trade up. If these top don't win with their drafted team and become free agents and win a SB on another team, that just proves you don't need draft them, and they can be found in Free Agency.

He didn't have an elite career and his team possessed an historical defense.

There will always be counterexamples. The conclusions based on past statistics will always be generalized with exceptions to the rule. However, they are exceptions, meaning they are a rare occurrence that does not invalidate the general conclusion.

 

[plasticman]

Only 8 first overall QB's have won the SB.

1. Davis Carr - back up QB with the Giants.
2. Bledsoe - back up QB with Patriots
3. Troy Aikman with original team Cowboys
4. Peyton Manning - original team Colts/Broncos
5. John Elway - not original team traded from Colts to the Broncos.
6. Jim Plunket - not original team Raiders
7. Terry Bradshaw - original team Steelers.
8. Eli Manning - not his original team traded to the Giants.

Only 3 first overall picks as QB have won a SB with their original team. Could argue 5 since, 2 never played for the team that drafted them.

2 as back up QB's
2 were traded after the draft
1 with another team

C'mon, man. You are willing to throw the "Eli's original team was not the Giants" at me? We all know he never played or practiced a single down with any other team. That's okay.

You left out Mathew Stafford, Joe Namath (AFL) and Steve Young (Supplemental draft).

A total 18 Super Bowls were won by a QB that was the #1 overall pick in their draft.

 

[Chasing6]

C'mon, man. You are willing to throw the "Eli's original team was not the Giants" at me? We all know he never played or practiced a single down with any other team. That's okay.

You left out Mathew Stafford, Joe Namath (AFL) and Steve Young (Supplemental draft).

A total 18 Super Bowls were won by a QB that was the #1 overall pick in their draft.

If you read what I wrote that was in their.

 

[Chasing6]

C'mon, man. You are willing to throw the "Eli's original team was not the Giants" at me? We all know he never played or practiced a single down with any other team. That's okay.

You left out Mathew Stafford, Joe Namath (AFL) and Steve Young (Supplemental draft).

A total 18 Super Bowls were won by a QB that was the #1 overall pick in their draft.

So the supplemental draft was the first overall pick. Do you understand what supplemental means? How can a second draft after the first one, be the first overall pick?

Please go ahead and name the other 10.

 

[Hadenough]

Not sure I would do it for Sanders but would have done this for Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck.

 

[Chasing6]

Manning will be the guy teams start tanking for.

 

[Hadenough]

A lot of people poo poo the idea of trading away 3 #1s but even if the QB ends up being a bust teams recover pretty quickly.
People act like it sets a team back 10 years. Without risk there is no reward.

 

[DuncanIso]

We already have a first round pick in Lance. Even still, no way. There are 3-4 good QBs this year, they can get one later in the 1st

Yup.

The QB1 transition started the moment they made the Lance trade.

That’s when the Dak contract talks stopped.

They didn’t even bother to tell Dak or Big Mike about the trade.

I’m anxious for Lance to start, but there really is no reason to rush things.

The 2025 draft is important.

We need RB1 and RG1.