um... not good news on AccuScore projection

[EPL0c0]

Yknow...this is why they play ACTUAL games.

 

[TheCount]

shoot the messenger!

 

[goliadmike]

shoot the messenger!

:shoot3IE, DIE, DIE!!!

 

[Phoenix]

shoot the messenger!

Shoot me all you want. I'm impervious to phantom bullets

 

[Huntstyle]

As long as we win the turnover battle, I really don't see us losing this game. Favre will have silver helmets in his face all day!

 

[sonnyboy]

My understanding is that they use current stats, current lineups, even team trends in play selections. At least, I thought I saw that somewhere, I could be wrong. I'll try to find out and verify if nobody knows offhand.

Maybe they do, or at least give a stronger weighting to the most recent stats. Either way I fully expected the sims to favor Min. Their to date stats are better than ours.

 

[gmoney112]

AccuScore has the Vikings at a heavy 59% to 40% favorite over the Cowboys (currently, I think the 10,000+ simulations are still in progress).

I'm already not liking this though...

I have a better winning % than that thing and I say we win by 10+. :laugh2:

 

[Trace1015]

Even with that im very confident that we will win expecially with that torn up secondary minnesota has

 

[cowboyed]

What was the AccuScore when we started playing the Eagles in December. Seriously it is statistical quantified speculation devoid of creativity, will to win and preparation.

 

[JBell]

What makes Accuscore any different from the Vegas line?

All it does it predict the favorite to win, or does it pick underdogs to win too?

 

[dbair1967]

Phoenix, I know you probably get this question every week -- but how accurate is that thing?

If you can find it on their wesbite, ESPN uses accuscore as one of its "expert" picks, and they have a running total. I tried to find the week 17 picks to see what the cumulative record was but couldnt find it.

 

[lspain1]

If not, it was a great season and I'll be ready for next year...

Believe!

I agree with this. I know one should never be satisfied and I know the opportunities are few....but regardless of the outcome from here I cannot help feeling it's been a great season.

 

[jswalker1981]

FYI....AccuScore picked Drago to beat Rocky, and we all know how that turned out.

 

[InmanRoshi]

FootballOutsiders had their model picking the Vikings too, but Schatz said he still believes the Cowboys are the favorite. He thinks there is a flaw because the models are taking into account the stats from the Vikings dominating win over the Giants in the season finale, which the Giants obviously laid down for, and it's skewing the results.

 

[reddyuta]

what did accuscore say about our saints game?

 

[dfense]

How does Moxie get calculated by Accuscore?

 

[silverblue]

I trust the Accu-Ditka

Not sure who he is picking in this game yet though

 

[Wimbo]

AccuScore has the Vikings at a heavy 59% to 40% favorite over the Cowboys (currently, I think the 10,000+ simulations are still in progress).

Currently, the average score they show is:

Vikings 26.9
Cowboys 24.1

Current Top Performers listed for QB, RB, WR in the game are:

QB - Romo. 23-35, 259 yds, 1.9 TD

RB - AP. 18 carries, 70 yds, 0.7 TD

WR - Austin. 4.9 Receptions, 74 yds, also 0.7 TD


No details of their "if-then" analysis are yet available.


I'm already not liking this though...

That is bad news - the Accuscore algorythm is broken. Someone probably spent a lot of time on that. Tragic.

 

[diehard2294]

Since when does anyone believe accuscore

 

[cowboys2233]

AccuScore has the Vikings at a heavy 59% to 40% favorite over the Cowboys (currently, I think the 10,000+ simulations are still in progress).

Currently, the average score they show is:

Vikings 26.9
Cowboys 24.1

Current Top Performers listed for QB, RB, WR in the game are:

QB - Romo. 23-35, 259 yds, 1.9 TD

RB - AP. 18 carries, 70 yds, 0.7 TD

WR - Austin. 4.9 Receptions, 74 yds, also 0.7 TD


No details of their "if-then" analysis are yet available.


I'm already not liking this though...

So Romo is going to throw at a 66% completion rate, for 10+ yards per reception and we're going to hold Mr. Peterson to under 80 yards (and just 3.9 YPC)...and we lose? I dig the Accuscore but this might be exhibit A when it comes to numbers not telling the whole story.

Again, I'm smart. I know the Cowboys are going to win this game. Trust me. :laugh2: