News: Was Prescott's Rookie Season A Fluke?

[AsthmaField]

IMO if Dak throws 30+ TDs and has a 2/1 TD ratio this year then these questions of dramatic falloff can be put to rest forever.

So you'd still think he's very good with 15 INT's?

 

[AsthmaField]

Then it's not crazy to suggest that he doesn't repeat (or even come close) to what he did last year, like many before him. Nick Foles for instance who is a better example than RG3 who got injuried.

I'm hopeful, but it's not some crazy anti-Cowboy media thing to talk about it.

I'm not saying there is a media anti-Cowboy crusade, but IMO both Foles and RG3 are bad examples to use with Dak.

Both Foles and Griffin were in offenses that the league literally didn't know what to do with. They had huge windows to throw in because defenses had so many busted assignments against Kelly and Shanahan's gimmicky offenses. They were limited in their reads and what they were asked to do as far as diagnosing defenses.

Once the league caught up... well, the jig was up. The differences between their rookie seasons and the following seasons were night and day. They had to straight up be NFL QB's from year 2 on... and they couldn't do it. They simply couldn't process quickly enough to make the correct reads and throws.

What Dak did year 1 and what he'll be doing year 2 is practically the same (although Dak is going to have a bigger playbook which will do nothing but help him). There is nothing for defenses to "figure out" between last year and this year. They knew last year what was going to happen... they just couldn't stop it very well.

Frankly, I'm not sure who is a good example for Dak... but I do know that both Foles and RG3 are bad examples.

 

[JJHLH1]

Not all Eagles writers are biased. Here is one from last September, less than a month into the season, who recognized Dak was going to be great:

"But that game doesn’t matter. None of them do. Because one team in the NFC East has found the answer. The answer to how they will rule the division for the next decade, how they will return to the glory years from so long ago that one of the players on those teams is now their coach. The search for the next great QB is over.

I am talking about Dak Prescott.

You can have your fancy stats. You can have your wins. You can have your accolades. I’m sold on Dak Prescott being The Next Big Thing. You should be too."

https://www.___GET_REAL_URL___/s/ww...on-wentz-dallas-cowboys-dak-prescott-nfc-east

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

When is this falsehood (especially the Romo part - best passer rating in the league with the same line) going to end? 2015 Line != 2016 Line. And why is Zeke always ignored? The true league MVP seems like an important distinction.

Zeke is always brought up when Dak is mentioned. Just as Murray should in Romo's best seasons with him on the team behind that OL.

 

[Kevinicus]

Zeke is always brought up when Dak is mentioned. Just as Murray should in Romo's best seasons with him on the team behind that OL.

He is always dismissed/ignored by those who try to pretend like the 2015 and 2016 teams were exactly the same except for Dak.

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

He is always dismissed/ignored by those who try to pretend like the 2015 and 2016 teams were exactly the same except for Dak.

Zeke was elite in 2016. Murrray was elite in 2014. I said this over and over in my posts. If Dak is gonna get discredited because of having Zeke, Romo should also carry the same discredit for his season for playing alongside Murray's great year. That's all im saying.

 

[tyke1doe]

File under "To Be Detemined the End of the Season."

 

[Kevinicus]

Zeke was elite in 2016. Murrray was elite in 2014. I said this over and over in my posts. If Dak is gonna get discredited because of having Zeke, Romo should also carry the same discredit for his season for playing alongside Murray's great year. That's all im saying.

The rest of the team is a factor in all evaluations, even Romo. But Elliott > Murray and 2016 OL > 2014 OL.

If you want to see what Romo does when the defense is focused primarily on the run, look at December 2014 because that's about the only time you'll find that during his career.

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

The rest of the team is a factor in all evaluations, even Romo. But Elliott > Murray and 2016 OL > 2014 OL.

If you want to see what Romo does when the defense is focused primarily on the run, look at December 2014 because that's about the only time you'll find that during his career.

Elliott over Murray, only because of his speed. In terms of production, Murray was there with Zeke.
Murray 1, 845 yds (4.7 avg) rushing.
Murray 416 yds (7.3 avg) receiving.

Zeke 1, 631 (5.1 avg) rushing.
Zeke 363 yds (11.3 avg) receiving.

I would say our OL run blocking was just as good in 2014 as 2016. Pass protection you can debate which unit was better. Dak was sacked 25 times, Romo 29.

 

[haleyrules]

Not all Eagles writers are biased. Here is one from last September, less than a month into the season, who recognized Dak was going to be great:

"But that game doesn’t matter. None of them do. Because one team in the NFC East has found the answer. The answer to how they will rule the division for the next decade, how they will return to the glory years from so long ago that one of the players on those teams is now their coach. The search for the next great QB is over.

I am talking about Dak Prescott.

You can have your fancy stats. You can have your wins. You can have your accolades. I’m sold on Dak Prescott being The Next Big Thing. You should be too."

https://www.___GET_REAL_URL___/s/ww...on-wentz-dallas-cowboys-dak-prescott-nfc-east

Nice.

 

[Kevinicus]

Elliott over Murray, only because of his speed. In terms of production, Murray was there with Zeke.
Murray 1, 845 yds (4.7 avg) rushing.
Murray 416 yds (7.3 avg) receiving.

Zeke 1, 631 (5.1 avg) rushing.
Zeke 363 yds (11.3 avg) receiving.

I would say our OL run blocking was just as good in 2014 as 2016. Pass protection you can debate which unit was better. Dak was sacked 25 times, Romo 29.

Those numbers are significantly different.
I'd say the OL was better across the board. But the key thing is in 2014 most defenses keyed on Romo and the passing game freeing up the run game. In 2016 most keyed on the running game opening up the passing game.

Late in 2014 when teams keyed more on the run, Romo set records for QB efficiency and the team averaged nearly 40 pts a game.

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

Those numbers are significantly different.
I'd say the OL was better across the board. But the key thing is in 2014 most defenses keyed on Romo and the passing game freeing up the run game. In 2016 most keyed on the running game opening up the passing game.

Late in 2014 when teams keyed more on the run, Romo set records for QB efficiency and the team averaged nearly 40 pts a game.

Significantly, in what? How is the OL better across the board in 2016 compared to 2014? In pass blocking Free was worse in 2016 than 2014. TSmith was healthy in 2014 compared to last year (when he was dinged up).

We just disagree. I'll move on.

 

[pansophy]

There's an inherent contradiction in the belief that Dak is both completely empowered by those around him and due to regress. Despite the fact that those are the most common assessments right now they both can't be true.

Dak had footwork and mechanical lapses. All QBs do. Romo was still working on footwork and accuracy issues years after becoming the starter so I agree that Dak is certainly a work in progress. But he did it consistently enough, especially as the year progressed, that I think it garners a little too much attention.

There is a big difference between always improving and refining what you do in the way Romo did later in his career from where Dak is when the OC could not calling whole sections of the playbook because his footwork didn't allow him to execute the play.

So we got away with it last year because the running game was so fantastic and Dak was very good at avoiding INTs. We managed his development very well last year, but let's not pretend that Dak is over the learning curve hump. He's not.

 

[pansophy]

I'm not saying there is a media anti-Cowboy crusade, but IMO both Foles and RG3 are bad examples to use with Dak.

Both Foles and Griffin were in offenses that the league literally didn't know what to do with. They had huge windows to throw in because defenses had so many busted assignments against Kelly and Shanahan's gimmicky offenses. They were limited in their reads and what they were asked to do as far as diagnosing defenses.

Once the league caught up... well, the jig was up. The differences between their rookie seasons and the following seasons were night and day. They had to straight up be NFL QB's from year 2 on... and they couldn't do it. They simply couldn't process quickly enough to make the correct reads and throws.

What Dak did year 1 and what he'll be doing year 2 is practically the same (although Dak is going to have a bigger playbook which will do nothing but help him). There is nothing for defenses to "figure out" between last year and this year. They knew last year what was going to happen... they just couldn't stop it very well.

Frankly, I'm not sure who is a good example for Dak... but I do know that both Foles and RG3 are bad examples.

That's true. Assuming we don't have injuries that impede the running game one could argue that we could just run the same offense, limiting the play book and all, and still do pretty well.

Still opening up the playbook also makes things more complex for Dak, so we could see his INT total go up next season (even without considering regression to the mean effects). If that isn't balanced out by more TDs then there will be more questions Dak will have to answer.

I'd like to feel like Dak has better command in the redzone and on 3rd and long. The one series Romo was in he threw a in-route to T Williams on a 3rd and long that we really didn't see all season. These are all things that 2nd year QBs who are successful get better at.

He will need to get better for us to make a legit run in the playoffs. Of course if the defense doesn't improve then we will waste Dak in the same way we wasted Romo's career.

Anyway, I just don't understand the argument that Dak is a finished product. There is no way I would put Dak in the top 20 players in the NFL. He had a top 20 season, for sure, but you don't have to limit the playbook for one of the best 20 players in the league.

I'm hopeful he'll get there. I would just like to see it before he's anointed.

 

[Kevinicus]

Significantly, in what? How is the OL better across the board in 2016 compared to 2014? In pass blocking Free was worse in 2016 than 2014. TSmith was healthy in 2014 compared to last year (when he was dinged up).

We just disagree. I'll move on.

When I said across the board (not the best chosen phrase) I meant pass blocking and run blocking as a group, not that every player was better.

 

[ActualCowboysFan]

There is a big difference between always improving and refining what you do in the way Romo did later in his career from where Dak is when the OC could not calling whole sections of the playbook because his footwork didn't allow him to execute the play.

So we got away with it last year because the running game was so fantastic and Dak was very good at avoiding INTs. We managed his development very well last year, but let's not pretend that Dak is over the learning curve hump. He's not.

No one is pretending that. They're taking issue with the fake first paragraph. And your cop out when called on it.

 

[pansophy]

No one is pretending that. They're taking issue with the fake first paragraph. And your cop out when called on it.

What fake first paragraph are you referring to?

 

[ActualCowboysFan]

What fake first paragraph are you referring to?

his footwork didn't allow him to execute the play.

 

[pansophy]

his footwork didn't allow him to execute the play.

Dak did not throw a pass when starting from under center without play action until week 14. That's because of his footwork. He was also limited in what he could change at the line but that's another story.

Obviously we had the running game to allow us to be very effective using play action and Dak had the most play action completions in 2016. But let's not pretend that we weren't managing what Dak was good at, and took plays out of the playbook.

 

[AsthmaField]

That's true. Assuming we don't have injuries that impede the running game one could argue that we could just run the same offense, limiting the play book and all, and still do pretty well.

Still opening up the playbook also makes things more complex for Dak, so we could see his INT total go up next season (even without considering regression to the mean effects). If that isn't balanced out by more TDs then there will be more questions Dak will have to answer.

I'd like to feel like Dak has better command in the redzone and on 3rd and long. The one series Romo was in he threw a in-route to T Williams on a 3rd and long that we really didn't see all season. These are all things that 2nd year QBs who are successful get better at.

He will need to get better for us to make a legit run in the playoffs. Of course if the defense doesn't improve then we will waste Dak in the same way we wasted Romo's career.

Anyway, I just don't understand the argument that Dak is a finished product. There is no way I would put Dak in the top 20 players in the NFL. He had a top 20 season, for sure, but you don't have to limit the playbook for one of the best 20 players in the league.

I'm hopeful he'll get there. I would just like to see it before he's anointed.

Fair enough... and I'm not saying where he belongs on any list. I have no idea. What I do know is that he did remarkably well for a rookie at that position, that it is his smarts, work ethic and the uncanny way teams follow him that made him special and that those things aren't going away. I also know that he has room to improve and isn't a finished product by any stretch of the imagination. He's a gamer. A winner. That is in his bone marrow and it will be with him always.

I do think he'll improve this season and I don't look for any sophomore slump. As for more of the playbook being opened to him... I don't see that as anything but a positive. The coaches could put too much on him and it turn into more INT's, but I don't think the coaches will do that. They were careful with it as a rookie and I don't think they'll overload him as a second year guy. They'll add some but not to the point where it is a negative, IMO.

Do some fans probably have unreasonably high expectations of Dak? I'm absolutely positive they do. Expecting to win almost every game and for Dak to have just 4 INT's is asking for a let down. That's on them though and there is nothing anyone can do to stop that. As for me, I expect him to be better in a lot of ways but I don't expect that to show up necessarily in more (or as many) wins, in his stats or in post season accolades.

I really don't care what he's ranked on a top 100 list... I just love that he's the Cowboys QB and he has such intangibles, smarts, work ethic and leadership that I really don't doubt him as a pro QB.