We need a Spencer replacement...now

Chocolate Lab

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fanfromvirginia;4502123 said:
Going with McClellan/Butler would in fact be a risk but it's worth considering given the almost 9 mil it would net in cap room.
Wow, really? I think that would be a gargantuan risk.

If Spencer were no better than that, they wouldn't have franchised him in the first place. He'd have gotten the Abe Elam or Leonard Davis treatment.
 

cowboysooner

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cobra;4502136 said:
I said "if you want to improve" it will cost you more. And it will do so in two ways. One, it would cost more signing a better player (e.g., signing Mario Williams as was discussed in FA), though there is always the risk that the FA doesn't pan out. Second, it will likely cost you more drafting someone and that involves even more risk. Sure "if" you hit on a draft pick then you are golden. But that is a roll of the dice. You theoretically could hit on a UDFA that is better than Ware and save you money by cutting Ware. But as a team, you have to go on probabilities and not possibilities. And the probability is that the individuals available in the draft are unlikely to be better than Spencer and a distinct possibility they are worse. But even assuming they were as good as Spencer and saved you money there, by drafting that player, you aren't using the #14 pick on a different position. And if you want to improve that different position, you cannot now use that #14 pick and have to look at FA and spending money to improve that position.

So by replacing Spencer, you assume risk of getting worse and likely do not save any real cost (both in absolute dollars and opportunity costs).


As an aside: I certainly would be willing to improve on Spencer if the opportunity presents itself. I don't quarrel with the idea that it is possible to improve there or that it would be nice to do so. I just happen to not see a reasonable option to do so (and I can get behind the argument that Shea McClellin would be worth looking at in round 2 depending on what is available). But what I do quarrel with is the idea that "he must go" or that it would be easy to replace him without negatively impacting the team. That is simply not the case.

I'm not in the he must go camp either. I don't think he is a bad guy or some gripe to the media guy. In fact I think he is about our 5th best defender.

I just think he has proven to be not a great pass rusher against right tackles. So I'd like to get someone to diversify the risk on our team to a Ware injury or take some scheme attention away from Ware occasionally.

I think there is a group of guys who can do that especially Mercilus, Branch, Curry, McClellan and Irvin. If they become better all around that Spencer then great and if not they will at least be an improvement in nickle where I might try to keep Spencer on the field too in 3rd and very long.
 

BlindFaith

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cobra;4502088 said:
These Spencer threads always go the same.

Someone comes and *****es about Spencer being a JAG. It is pointed out that he is actually pretty good, just not elite.
Then they complain about pressure. It is pointed out that the team gets good pressure and Spencer is above average at pressure.
Then they complain we should draft his replacement. It is pointed out that there is no one in the draft who would be better.
Then they complain that he admitted to quitting on the team. It is pointed out that is not accurate.
Then they compain about his cost. It is pointed out that if you want to get better at that position, it will cost more money.
And on, and on...

Having seen this recur, it seems to me that the most strident people who demand Spencer to be gone all have the same motivation. What it comes down to is always this: these people are pissed off that he hasn't met their unrealistic dreams expectation when we drafted him that we would have some never-before-seen super-elite bookend Wares. And they are butthurt that didn't happen and just want him gone because he should pay for not living up to their dreams and expectations.

1. I think Spencer is very athletic. Limited pass rush skills. Very good against the run. Doesn't always play up to his potential. Struggles to cover the pass. All around slightly above average OLB.
2. There are three guys that would be as good or better than Spencer by 2013. Spencer will not go anywhere this year. They get a year to learn.
3. Did he quit on the team. I read that somewhere, but honestly it doesn't matter. I've seen games where he just doesn't show up.
4. He is being paid NOW like a premium OLB. That he isn't. It's obvious that the team and him don't agree on how good he is as they couldn't work out a long term contract. Will things change by next year? I doubt it.

We draft his replacement this year. Or we get a couple guys, which I think we need to do. The rookie contracts even for a first rounder would be much lower than what Spencer thinks he can get.

I just don't want to go into 2013 with out an OLB. And if we don't get one this year then we will have to draft one next year. If we play even only as well as we did last year, that puts us middle of the pack draft wise. We gonna get a premier 34OLB there that could start from day one? Doubt it. We'd have to move up if there is even anyone worth moving up for.
 

xwalker

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cobra;4502136 said:
I said "if you want to improve" it will cost you more. And it will do so in two ways. One, it would cost more signing a better player (e.g., signing Mario Williams as was discussed in FA), though there is always the risk that the FA doesn't pan out. Second, it will likely cost you more drafting someone and that involves even more risk. Sure "if" you hit on a draft pick then you are golden. But that is a roll of the dice. You theoretically could hit on a UDFA that is better than Ware and save you money by cutting Ware. But as a team, you have to go on probabilities and not possibilities. And the probability is that the individuals available in the draft are unlikely to be better than Spencer and a distinct possibility they are worse. But even assuming they were as good as Spencer and saved you money there, by drafting that player, you aren't using the #14 pick on a different position. And if you want to improve that different position, you cannot now use that #14 pick and have to look at FA and spending money to improve that position.

So by replacing Spencer, you assume risk of getting worse and likely do not save any real cost (both in absolute dollars and opportunity costs).


As an aside: I certainly would be willing to improve on Spencer if the opportunity presents itself. I don't quarrel with the idea that it is possible to improve there or that it would be nice to do so. I just happen to not see a reasonable option to do so (and I can get behind the argument that Shea McClellin would be worth looking at in round 2 depending on what is available). But what I do quarrel with is the idea that "he must go" or that it would be easy to replace him without negatively impacting the team. That is simply not the case.

The Spencer issue seems like an easy decision to me. You keep him this year. It would be a risk to count on Butler/Albright and draft picks this year. The cap space is already allocated for Spencer to be on the team this year.

With Spencer on a 1 year deal and Butler a FA next year, the big risk would be not drafting at least 1 OLB prospect early in the draft, IMO.
 

BlindFaith

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cowboysooner;4502162 said:
I'm not in the he must go camp either. I don't think he is a bad guy or some gripe to the media guy. In fact I think he is about our 5th best defender.

I just think he has proven to be not a great pass rusher against right tackles. So I'd like to get someone to diversify the risk on our team to a Ware injury or take some scheme attention away from Ware occasionally.

I think there is a group of guys who can do that especially Mercilus, Branch, Curry, McClellan and Irvin. If they become better all around that Spencer then great and if not they will at least be an improvement in nickle where I might try to keep Spencer on the field too in 3rd and very long.

I not opposed to keeping him, just not at the price he thinks he can get. That appears to be the teams thinking as well. So I'm anticipating that he won't be here next year because of that.

I agree with everything else you said.
 

burmafrd

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There are a couple in the draft that can be better than Spencer. But this is a bad year to look for a pass rusher.
 

supercowboy8

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xwalker;4502183 said:
The Spencer issue seems like an easy decision to me. You keep him this year. It would be a risk to count on Butler/Albright and draft picks this year. The cap space is already allocated for Spencer to be on the team this year.

With Spencer on a 1 year deal and Butler a FA next year, the big risk would be not drafting at least 1 OLB prospect early in the draft, IMO.

I agree that we need to find someone to develop but I don't agree with some other people who want to reach for a player while skipping over better players that fill other major holes.

We also need a safety, CB, OG and Center.

It's easy to say draft a OLB to develop to replace him next year but we spent years trying to develop Butler and that hasn't worked out to good. I'm ok with draft a OLB to develop but don't reach on one and miss out on great OGs and CBs that we also need.
 

supercowboy8

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burmafrd;4502191 said:
There are a couple in the draft that can be better than Spencer. But this is a bad year to look for a pass rusher.

I agree, I don't think this year is a good year. There are a coupl that has the potential but there has benn alot of OLBs drafted in the 1st rounds that had "potential" that busted.
 

cobra

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BlindFaith;4502172 said:
3. Did he quit on the team. I read that somewhere, but honestly it doesn't matter.

That's what I thought.

Another example of the internet message board telephone game.

People regurgitating what they thought they read over and over until some claim starts being treated like truth that has no relationship to the original comment.

(An to edify you: the answer is that he did not say what you think he said)
 

rocboy22

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supercowboy8;4502195 said:
I agree that we need to find someone to develop but I don't agree with some other people who want to reach for a player while skipping over better players that fill other major holes.

We also need a safety, CB, OG and Center.

It's easy to say draft a OLB to develop to replace him next year but we spent years trying to develop Butler and that hasn't worked out to good. I'm ok with draft a OLB to develop but don't reach on one and miss out on great OGs and CBs that we also need.

I don't think Butler hasn't worked out too good, I just don't think he would play the same position as Spence. He is not as good against the run or in coverage. He is a better rusher, though. He actually is a true backup on Ware's weak side, where you pass rush like 95% of the time.
 

BlindFaith

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Chocolate Lab;4502141 said:
Wow, really? I think that would be a gargantuan risk.

If Spencer were no better than that, they wouldn't have franchised him in the first place. He'd have gotten the Abe Elam or Leonard Davis treatment.

The team was stuck. There is no one that could replace him. Davis got released after the draft. They at least thought they could replace him. Guroude bit them in the arse.

They had to franchise Spencer. No other options. Now they have the option to draft his replacement. But they still won't recind the franchise tag. He'll be here this year no matter what.
 

supercowboy8

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rocboy22;4502204 said:
I don't think Butler hasn't worked out too good, I just don't think he would play the same position as Spence. He is not as good against the run or in coverage. He is a better rusher, though. He actually is a true backup on Ware's weak side, where you pass rush like 95% of the time.

I agree, thats what your going to get. Just saying draft a OLB to develop doesn't mean he can step in and replace Spencer. Spencer was a late 1st round pick that Dallas developed.
I want to see Spencer in Ryans scheme for a full year. He didn't have an offseason last year. Lets see how he does. Remeber we had a chance to get Wimbley "the better pass rusher" who once played under Ryan and Matt Eberflus. They most have liked Spencer more.

I'm fine with drafting a replacement for Spencer but lets not pass on better players at other positions of needs. GO by the board.
 

BlindFaith

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cobra;4502200 said:
That's what I thought.

Another example of the internet message board telephone game.

People regurgitating what they thought they read over and over until some claim starts being treated like truth that has no relationship to the original comment.

(An to edify you: the answer is that he did not say what you think he said)

Thanks for the edification. I'm not in the mood to look for an article from a couple years ago to prove it one way or the other.

But for your edification, he doesn't always play hard. I don't need an article for that.
 

cobra

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BlindFaith;4502222 said:
Thanks for the edification. I'm not in the mood to look for an article from a couple years ago to prove it one way or the other.

Just realized the irony that your user name is "BlindFaith"...
 

xwalker

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supercowboy8;4502195 said:
I agree that we need to find someone to develop but I don't agree with some other people who want to reach for a player while skipping over better players that fill other major holes.

We also need a safety, CB, OG and Center.

It's easy to say draft a OLB to develop to replace him next year but we spent years trying to develop Butler and that hasn't worked out to good. I'm ok with draft a OLB to develop but don't reach on one and miss out on great OGs and CBs that we also need.


I agree with most of this. The only position that I might consider reaching on a little is Center; although in this case, for me, reaching is taking Blake in the 3rd instead of the 4th.

The OLB pick does not have to be in the 1st. I actually prefer McClellin in the 2nd over picking one in the 1st. Irving and Curry in the 3rd are also much better prospects than Victor Butler was in 2009, IMO.
 

BlindFaith

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supercowboy8;4502218 said:
I agree, thats what your going to get. Just saying draft a OLB to develop doesn't mean he can step in and replace Spencer. Spencer was a late 1st round pick that Dallas developed.
I want to see Spencer in Ryans scheme for a full year. He didn't have an offseason last year. Lets see how he does. Remeber we had a chance to get Wimbley "the better pass rusher" who once played under Ryan and Matt Eberflus. They most have liked Spencer more.

I'm fine with drafting a replacement for Spencer but lets not pass on better players at other positions of needs. GO by the board.

Ryan wanted no part of Wimbley, now, or when he let him be traded.

And I'm not talking about drafting an OLB no matter what. Let me say this again, TRADE DOWN. Move to where you get value and need with your pick and add additional picks.

This, by all accounts, is a deep draft. Good time to get extra picks.

And again, if Cox is there at 14, take him and don't look back.
 

BlindFaith

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cobra;4502231 said:
Just realized the irony that your user name is "BlindFaith"...

How original. Kuddos.

And I do plenty of research, this point just isn't worth it.

So if it makes you feel better, I'll just say you're right.
 

fanfromvirginia

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Chocolate Lab;4502141 said:
Wow, really? I think that would be a gargantuan risk.

If Spencer were no better than that, they wouldn't have franchised him in the first place. He'd have gotten the Abe Elam or Leonard Davis treatment.
How many 'wins above replacement' (to use a baseball concept) does Spencer give us? Obviously I don't mean wins -- that wouldn't be a fair translation but you get the idea. How much above average is Spencer, how much below (or above);average would McClellan be, how much would that difference cost us this year and then subtract from whatever comes out of that the future benefits of having an extra 8.5 or so of cap space and a young McClellan on the roster. I really like McClellan and think he would be a great addition and I don't view him as a project.
 

Manwiththeplan

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theogt;4501951 said:
None of the people mentioned in this thread would be a better option in Week 1. And it's doubtful any of them will be much more productive than Spencer, if at all, throughout their careers. Mercilus has probably the best chance and I'm not sure he's worth a #14 pick.

this is the part most people don't get. yes pittsburgh has Woodley and Harrison and yes, having 2 guys that good is sexy, blah, blah, blah, but most teams don't have 2 guys that good. SF drafted Aldon Smith last year to play on the weakside, but Ahmad Brooks on the strong side had 1 more sack than Spencer last year, and only 1 more over the past 3 seasons and just signed a 6 year 45 million dollar deal ($7.5 million per).

Jarrett Johnson, the OLB opposite Terrell Suggs had a whopping 2.5 sacks yet signed a 4 year deal 19 million dollar deal ($4.75 million per). I'm not sure what Spencer is worth, and I am pretty sure it's less than $8.9 million per, but I do know that there is no slam dunk replacement that will be better in year 1 or even noticiably better several years into their career.
 

jswalker1981

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CATCH17;4501992 said:
If Cox is gone then you gotta go Barron, Decastro, or trade down.

Brockers offers nothing when it comes to putting pressure on the QB. No need for Spears part 2.

The kid is 21 years old, and has only started 14 games, yet we already know what he is going to be like for the rest of his career?!? Do you see the winning lottery numbers in that crystal ball, too?
 
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