We need a Spencer replacement...now

[CATCH17]

The kid is 21 years old, and has only started 14 games, yet we already know what he is going to be like for the rest of his career?!? Do you see the winning lottery numbers in that crystal ball, too?

Chris Canty part 2.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

None of the people mentioned in this thread would be a better option in Week 1. And it's doubtful any of them will be much more productive than Spencer, if at all, throughout their careers. Mercilus has probably the best chance and I'm not sure he's worth a #14 pick.

This.

Pay attention.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Jarrett Johnson, the OLB opposite Terrell Suggs had a whopping 2.5 sacks yet signed a 4 year deal 19 million dollar deal ($4.75 million per).

And most credit the Ravens for making very good personnel decisions.

 

[BlindFaith]

this is the part most people don't get. yes pittsburgh has Woodley and Harrison and yes, having 2 guys that good is sexy, blah, blah, blah, but most teams don't have 2 guys that good. SF drafted Aldon Smith last year to play on the weakside, but Ahmad Brooks on the strong side had 1 more sack than Spencer last year, and only 1 more over the past 3 seasons and just signed a 6 year 45 million dollar deal ($7.5 million per).

Jarrett Johnson, the OLB opposite Terrell Suggs had a whopping 2.5 sacks yet signed a 4 year deal 19 million dollar deal ($4.75 million per). I'm not sure what Spencer is worth, and I am pretty sure it's less than $8.9 million per, but I do know that there is no slam dunk replacement that will be better in year 1 or even noticiably better several years into their career.

So you don't think getting Mercilus at around the 17-22 range, getting additional picks, and only paying around 2 mil per year is a better deal than keeping Spencer, even at the low end (4.75 mil per)?

Do you think he'd sign for that? I'm sure the team offered around that now and he didn't sign. How much do you think he wants? 6? 7?

Do you sign him for 7 mil per year next year or do you get a guy this year and pay him 2? And maybe this guy shows you more as a pass rusher.

You'll have to use a first round pick to get one of the guys that could replace Spencer next year. Cant wait till the second or third. You might get lucky, but the risk is higher.

The question is, Do you think Spencer will be back next year? Not how good he is, how he's ranked. But will the team sign him to a contract that they are comfortable with. I don't think they will. And I think Spencer feels he's worth top dollar, which I don't feel he is.

So I get a couple guys this year. And hope they pan out. If they do, you could have a player (or two) that are as good or better than Spencer at the fraction of the cost next year.

 

[rocboy22]

And most credit the Ravens for making very good personnel decisions.

what do you mean by this? if you think that is a stupid deal, then the ravens did make a good decision, because they didnt sign him. If you think it was a smart deal, then the raves didnt make a good decision, because he got it from someone else

 

[BlindFaith]

This.

Pay attention.

This isn't about week one. This is about next year. Again, you cant just focus on this year.

So draft DeCastro. He starts this year. Get Konz too. He starts.

This still won't win us the SuperBowl. Probably still wont get us in the playoffs. Not with this defense.

So then next year roles around. Spencer is gone. Coleman is gone and should be gone this year. Pool is gone. Butler is gone. Jenkins looking for a huge payday.

So now your 2013 draft has a ton of needs, again. Or we look to sign high priced free agents again.

How bout we get the replacements now? Give them a year to develope.

Pray that Cox falls to us?

Or trade down and get our OLB and DE and CB and Safety.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

And most credit the Ravens for making very good personnel decisions.

he signed it with the chargers to be fair, should've included that.

 

[theogt]

So, DeCastro and Konz won't help us win a Super Bowl, but Mercilus will. Better let the Cowboys front office know.

 

[BlindFaith]

So, DeCastro and Konz won't help us win a Super Bowl, but Mercilus will. Better let the Cowboys front office know.

I think they already know.

And I said that drafting them will net get us to the SuperBowl. Would the offense be better? Sure. Somewhat. But the lingering arguement is still - What needs more improvement, the offense or defense?

I'll stick to my guns and say improving the defense will help us win a SuperBowl more so than adding a 1st round guard.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

what do you mean by this? if you think that is a stupid deal, then the ravens did make a good decision, because they didnt sign him. If you think it was a smart deal, then the raves didnt make a good decision, because he got it from someone else

Yes.

 

[burmafrd]

I think they already know.

And I said that drafting them will net get us to the SuperBowl. Would the offense be better? Sure. Somewhat. But the lingering arguement is still - What needs more improvement, the offense or defense?

I'll stick to my guns and say improving the defense will help us win a SuperBowl more so than adding a 1st round guard.

and yet the trend seems to be that better offenses are more important.
The Giants won SBs because of a tremendously dominant D line more than any other reason. Yet you look at NO, and GB who won with much better offensives then defenses. And with the continued extra protection that is coming for the QBs and WRs - and no sign that that will end any time soon- it can be argued that before long a dominant pass rush will not help much in winning games. OR any kind of real D at all. We will be like the NBA when it only matters how much you score; not how well you defend.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

So you don't think getting Mercilus at around the 17-22 range, getting additional picks, and only paying around 2 mil per year is a better deal than keeping Spencer, even at the low end (4.75 mil per)?

Do you think he'd sign for that? I'm sure the team offered around that now and he didn't sign. How much do you think he wants? 6? 7?

Do you sign him for 7 mil per year next year or do you get a guy this year and pay him 2? And maybe this guy shows you more as a pass rusher.

You'll have to use a first round pick to get one of the guys that could replace Spencer next year. Cant wait till the second or third. You might get lucky, but the risk is higher.

The question is, Do you think Spencer will be back next year? Not how good he is, how he's ranked. But will the team sign him to a contract that they are comfortable with. I don't think they will. And I think Spencer feels he's worth top dollar, which I don't feel he is.

So I get a couple guys this year. And hope they pan out. If they do, you could have a player (or two) that are as good or better than Spencer at the fraction of the cost next year.

Couple of things, do I think Mercilus plus extra picks and a lower cost is a better deal than Spencer, no. Spencer is a known comodity and Mercilus is an unkown who only produced 1 year in college. He has just as good a chance at being Aaron Maybin, Robert Ayers, Vernon Gholston or Derrick Harvey as being the Lamar Woodley. And anything short of that would be a waste considering we have a solid player in Spencer. We have guys starting at G, C, DE and S who should be back-ups at best and some of the players at those positions are a better value than Mercilus, so unless he's a pro-bowler we at best traded 6 fpr half a dozen.

As far as next year, I do think we'll end up keeping Spencer. I think he'll have another season around 6 sacks, maybe 8 or 9 if we can get a better option than Kenyon Coleman at DE and he'll be signed for a number both sides are comfortable with.

If his demands are outrageous, I have no problem replacing him with a first round pick, however there's no logical reason to believe anyone picked in the range you described would be noticably better anytime soon.

 

[Ren]

So we're going to ignore all the other needs we have in order to reach for and groom a replacement that's not going to do **** for us this year?

Awesome

 

[BlindFaith]

and yet the trend seems to be that better offenses are more important.
The Giants won SBs because of a tremendously dominant D line more than any other reason. Yet you look at NO, and GB who won with much better offensives then defenses. And with the continued extra protection that is coming for the QBs and WRs - and no sign that that will end any time soon- it can be argued that before long a dominant pass rush will not help much in winning games. OR any kind of real D at all. We will be like the NBA when it only matters how much you score; not how well you defend.

I'm not getting into the who won and why argument again. Did that already.

Bottom line is that you have to be balanced, more or less. You may have one side of the ball better than the other, but the weak link still has to be competent. Our defense wasn't, and still isn't.

Offensive scoring has been right around 21/22 points per game over the last 8 years or so. No major jumps.

Yards may be up, but scoring is not.

Defense will always play a big part in a teams success. Thats why you're seeing a premium on cover corners, safeties and coverage LBs and pass rushing DEs. Defenses are adjusting.

 

[Doomsday101]

I'm not worried about the outside pass rush, would I like more out of Spencer? yes but I see the biggest problem on the inside players where Dallas gets no push, no pressure up the gut. If all the QB has to do is to step up into the pocket then it will be hard to get the consistent pressure from the outside.

 

[cowboysooner]

Chris Canty part 2.

We could use a Chis Canty.

 

[BlindFaith]

Couple of things, do I think Mercilus plus extra picks and a lower cost is a better deal than Spencer, no. Spencer is a known comodity and Mercilus is an unkown who only produced 1 year in college. He has just as good a chance at being Aaron Maybin, Robert Ayers, Vernon Gholston or Derrick Harvey as being the Lamar Woodley. And anything short of that would be a waste considering we have a solid player in Spencer. We have guys starting at G, C, DE and S who should be back-ups at best and some of the players at those positions are a better value than Mercilus, so unless he's a pro-bowler we at best traded 6 fpr half a dozen.

As far as next year, I do think we'll end up keeping Spencer. I think he'll have another season around 6 sacks, maybe 8 or 9 if we can get a better option than Kenyon Coleman at DE and he'll be signed for a number both sides are comfortable with.

If his demands are outrageous, I have no problem replacing him with a first round pick, however there's no logical reason to believe anyone picked in the range you described would be noticably better anytime soon.

Thats why you pay scouts. I think either him, Branch or McClellin would be uprades, in 2013. They will help in certain packages this year. You'd also end up with extra picks to allow you to add say a Reyes and a corner.

We just don't see it the same way. No problem.

 

[BlindFaith]

So we're going to ignore all the other needs we have in order to reach for and groom a replacement that's not going to do **** for us this year?

Awesome

Trading down and adding picks and still getting one of the OLBs would not be a reach.

The draft is about the future. FA is about the now. Is it great to have a rookie come in and start, absolutely. How often does it happen? 50% of the time? Odds are a lot higher the higher you draft.

If we stay at 14 I really think Barron will be the pick. Cox will be gone, we won't draft DeCastro. I don't like him that high, but you have to pick someone if you cant find anyone to trade down with.

And I'm not saying that a rookie OLB wouldn't contribute this year. Just wouldn't start, at least to start the season. But they could also be lights out and beat out Spencer. But I'd doubt it.

 

[CATCH17]

We could use a Chis Canty.

Agreed but with a 1st round pick i'd like my 3-4 DE to be a little more dynamic.

 

[ware1manarmy]

I'm not worried about the outside pass rush, would I like more out of Spencer? yes but I see the biggest problem on the inside players where Dallas gets no push, no pressure up the gut. If all the QB has to do is to step up into the pocket then it will be hard to get the consistent pressure from the outside.

i agree with this. get a real NT and draft irvin in sec. if spencer does not produce you have his replacement