What impact will Buehler actually have?

[Baileyneverfailey]

No, this is not a thread about stupid Chuck Norris jokes or anything else. I am just wondering what others think about the potential benefits of having a kickoff specialist like this. If the reports are true, and this guy really does put the ball into the end zone every kick off, sometimes quite deep, it would be reasonable to think that the average starting position for opposing teams will be more like the 20, instead of the 30, 35.

Parcells used to say 10 yards of field position is equal to a point scored. So we're talking about potentially 4 or 5 points a game in our favor if this guy kicks off as well as advertised. That is huge to me.

I guess I'm just wondering if anybody else is buying into the hype of what he can do for us? Because I kinda am.

 

[JonJon]

What impact will Buehler actually have?

 

[starfrombirth]

I like what he brings on field position but I'm not happy about the lost roster spot. I think we are going to lose a receiver or db that we desperately need for depth. We WILL have injuries this year and I'm afraid that those 2 areas are going to be hard hit without a viable replacement because we have someone on our team just for kickoffs. Think about it. There are going to be games this year that he sees the field just 3 times.... 1 on the opening / halftime kickoff and maybe for 2 more scores. I just wonder about the longterm value of such a specialized spot. He's not even contributing by kicking fieldgoals... just kickoffs.

 

[AbeBeta]

I expect he will continue to fuel many not-funny-for-several-months-now jokes

 

[cobra]

In addition to kicking, Buehler is a pretty good athlete, and they are working him in other positions. So I don't think it will be only kickoffs wherein he will contribute.

That being said, I think you diminishing his value. Our special teams, especially kickoff returns, have been a major problem over the last couple seasons. I would say they have cost us a several games. With one player, you can eliminate that. That's an enormous impact, far more so than the 7th LB that you suit up for gameday, and probably won't even get in the game.

 

[big dog cowboy]

I am just wondering what others think about the potential benefits of having a kickoff specialist like this.

He does more than just kickoff, but starting our opponents at their 20, then force a 3 and out really gives us good starting position several times a game.

 

[Temo]

No, this is not a thread about stupid Chuck Norris jokes or anything else. I am just wondering what others think about the potential benefits of having a kickoff specialist like this. If the reports are true, and this guy really does put the ball into the end zone every kick off, sometimes quite deep, it would be reasonable to think that the average starting position for opposing teams will be more like the 20, instead of the 30, 35.

Parcells used to say 10 yards of field position is equal to a point scored. So we're talking about potentially 4 or 5 points a game in our favor if this guy kicks off as well as advertised. That is huge to me.

I guess I'm just wondering if anybody else is buying into the hype of what he can do for us? Because I kinda am.

Fantastic article about this very subject: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/12/best-defensive-player-in-nfl-isneil.html

To summarize, between the 15 yard lines, 1 yard of field position is worth about .04 points. So the difference between starting at the 30 vs. the 40 is worth about .4 points. If you kick off 4 times a game, it's worth about 1.6 points a game, or 25.6 points over the course of a season.

Field position is one of the most underrated aspects of football, and Buehler can really help a ton.

 

[TheCount]

Not to understate the importance of field position but I don't think his impact will be tremendous, he'd have to really do a great job consistantly to justify keeping 2 kickers "forever", if he's also an accurate field goal kicker then maybe he could be trade material at a later date.

 

[starfrombirth]

In addition to kicking, Buehler is a pretty good athlete, and they are working him in other positions. So I don't think it will be only kickoffs wherein he will contribute.

That being said, I think you diminishing his value. Our special teams, especially kickoff returns, have been a major problem over the last couple seasons. I would say they have cost us a several games. With one player, you can eliminate that. That's an enormous impact, far more so than the 7th LB that you suit up for gameday, and probably won't even get in the game.

If it's a 7th linebacker that gets gone then I'm ok but it's awfully hard to specify what player lost his position because we kept Buehler. I agree that this has been a concern for us for the last few years and I hope that he is the answer. Only time will tell I guess.

 

[aikemirv]

It really depends on improvement of the coverage teams IMO. he can kick it 5 -8 yards deep every time but if we don't cover that 5-8 yards any faster or better with the coverage unit we won't see a merked difference in field position.

That said, 5-8 yards into the endzone is probably an average of 10 more yards than Folk. If we can get that whole 10 every time it will be big!

 

[aikemirv]

Who is the holder this year?

 

[theogt]

Yakuza Rich had a nice post on this:

With the signing of David Buehler as the 'kickoff specialist' I had to wonder what type of effect a great kickoff specialist could have on kickoffs. Well, let's look at Nick Folk's kickoff stats last season.

http://hosted.stats.com/fb/playerstats.asp?id=8432&team=6


73 kickoffs

69 returns

4 kicks out of bounds (assumption based on 73 KO's - 69 returns = 4 OB's)

1476 return yards

30.3 yard line Average starting field position

The Cowboys kickoff coverage was quite good last year. In fact, they finished 6th in average kickoff return yardage allowed. The problem was Nick Folk. Not only did he finish last in the league with ZERO kickoffs, he was the ONLY kickoff guy to not have a touchback in '08.

Given these numbers, Folk's average kickoff landed in between the 7 and 8 yard line. The opponents averaged about 21.3 in average kickoff and the extra 160 yards puts the average starting position at the 30.3 yard line.

So why did the team draft so many special teams coverage guys last week? Because they finished 24th in punt return yards allowed. So with Buehler's alleged kickoff skills (which many scouts from around the league said they had never seen a kickoff guy quite like Buehler) and McBriar's cannon of a leg, if the Cowboys can get some really great special teams coverage players, they could own teams in field position (provided the offense doesn't turn the ball over).

But, back to Buehler.

The league average if touchback percentage was 16.1%. The top 5 touchback guys were about 30%.

So if Buehler was to be 'average' that would mean on 73 kickoffs, Buehler would get 12 touchbacks. That would drop the average starting field position on kickoffs to about the 25 yard line. About a 5 yard drop, JUST if Buehler is AVERAGE. Furthermore, be reminded that I'm just taking into account Folk's 4 kickoffs that went out of bounds and the other kickoffs that were not touchbacks that went about 62.3 yard in distance. I'm assuming that Buehler would be a much better kickoff guy than these numbers suggest.

If Buehler is a top 5 touchback guy and averages about 30% touchback rate, that means on 73 kickoffs Buehler would have about 22 touchbacks. With that, Dallas would be allowing their average kickoff position allowed at about the 24 yard line, a 6 yard improvement (or a -20% decrease in field position). And remember, this still includes the 'Folk kickoffs' that went out of bounds and only averaged 62.3 yards. Furthermore, one of the key factors of Buehler's unique skills is that he's 6'2" and 227 pounds and played fullback and safety and is like an extra legitimate tackler on kickoffs.

The average starting field position allowed in the league was 27.2 yards last year. The best in the league was the Falcons with 24.8 yard line. So there's a lot of sense behind taking a guy like Buehler. I sort of doubt we will automatically have the best kickoff coverage unit in the league, but I think we should be much improved if Buehler is somewhere nearly as good as advertised.

 

[Angus]

Not to understate the importance of field position but I don't think his impact will be tremendous, he'd have to really do a great job consistantly to justify keeping 2 kickers "forever", if he's also an accurate field goal kicker then maybe he could be trade material at a later date.

Or, if he is accurate, Folk could be instead.

 

[iceberg]

No, this is not a thread about stupid Chuck Norris jokes or anything else. I am just wondering what others think about the potential benefits of having a kickoff specialist like this. If the reports are true, and this guy really does put the ball into the end zone every kick off, sometimes quite deep, it would be reasonable to think that the average starting position for opposing teams will be more like the 20, instead of the 30, 35.

Parcells used to say 10 yards of field position is equal to a point scored. So we're talking about potentially 4 or 5 points a game in our favor if this guy kicks off as well as advertised. That is huge to me.

I guess I'm just wondering if anybody else is buying into the hype of what he can do for us? Because I kinda am.

I expect he will continue to fuel many not-funny-for-several-months-now jokes

which is why i tend to avoid most buehler threads. like "make it rain" some people simply can't come up with their own jokes so the have to retread something else time and time again in the hopes someone will think they're funny. : )

 

[Temo]

Yakuza Rich had a nice post on this:

There's a lot of stuff missing from that analysis. For instance, the only reason our coverage unit graded as high as it did is because short kicks are easier to cover, to the tune of about .5 yards added to each return for every yard deeper a kick goes. (so if a kick goes 10 yards deeper, you can, on average, expect about 5 additional yards of return).

Adjust for this, our return unit was actually below average.

 

[Cowboys22]

The much overlooked aspect of having a guy like Beuhler is that he can really have a huge impact in the last 2 minutes of the half or game. How many times in the last few years have we scored with a minute or so left on the clock only to have the other team return the kickoff to the 40 and end up scoring themselves to end the half or game? He if boots it in the endzone and the other team just takes a knee at the 20 to end the half, that is a big deal. You can downplay his impact all you want by spacing out his stats over the entire season but I'm willing to bet there will be 6-8 times this season where his ability to kick the ball into the endzone will have a huge impact on the outcome of a close game. If he is as good as advertised in the games, those kickoffs will no longer breath-holding and heart-stopping moments.

I look at it this way. If you combine a 60-70% touchback kicker with a top 5-10 attacking and aggressive defense, you will hold almost every team below 20 points and many below 14. That makes every game winable with a slightly above average offense.

 

[burmafrd]

If our offense just performs as well as last year he will be kicking off at least 4-5 times a game. If he can consistently put it in the end zone or better yet DEEP in the end zone we will have a lot of touchbacks if our coverage team continues to be among the best. The returners will be told to take a knee if it goes into the end zone at all. We could be looking at 40% touchbacks or even better. That could work out to as much as 30-40 yds per game. That adds up big time. Especially since all teams have to be pretty conservative when they are starting out on the 20.

 

[theogt]

There's a lot of stuff missing from that analysis. For instance, the only reason our coverage unit graded as high as it did is because short kicks are easier to cover, to the tune of about .5 yards added to each return for every yard deeper a kick goes. (so if a kick goes 10 yards deeper, you can, on average, expect about 5 additional yards of return).

Yes, I agree. I highlighted the part at the bottom that was interesting (i.e., starting position, which is the most important stat).

 

[AbeBeta]

In addition to kicking, Buehler is a pretty good athlete, and they are working him in other positions. So I don't think it will be only kickoffs wherein he will contribute.

That being said, I think you diminishing his value. Our special teams, especially kickoff returns, have been a major problem over the last couple seasons. I would say they have cost us a several games. With one player, you can eliminate that. That's an enormous impact, far more so than the 7th LB that you suit up for gameday, and probably won't even get in the game.

All of you who think this kid is going to do anything other than kickoff need to take a reality pill.

Good athlete will get you practicing at other positions in college - it doesn't cut it in the NFL where most of the players you are going against have played their positions for years.

 

[dmq]

One thing I will say is that there is nothing better for changing momentum after a touchdown than a good kickoff return. It just brings the other team back to life. It seemed to me last year that many teams were slapping hands after kickoff returns against Dallas last year. I would love to see us back teams up 5 yards on every drive following a kickoff return. That imact would far out weigh any impact some guy at the bottom of the roster would have.