What is Earl Thomas Now Really?

[Verdict]

We all know who Earl Thomas WAS during the prior part of his career, but what exactly is Earl Thomas now, and what is the current Earl Thomas worth?

I know many of you are wanting Earl Thomas to be a member of this Cowboys team, but you have to be careful what you wish for, because sometime you get it and wish you didn't have it.

Earl This as was arguably the best safety in the NFL, but Earl Thomas is OLD by NFL standards. He has also been recently injured.
He may be an improvement over what we currently have, but how much of an improvement, for how long, and at what price to the cap.

I am guessing the draft pick compensation will be a third round pick, give or take plus Thomas will want to "get paid". Seattle seems to desperately want to get rid of him. Why aren't any other teams besides the Cowboys beating down his door to bring him aboard?

Thomas may justify a trade this year to the Cowboys, but what about next year, or the year after, or the year after that? The odds of Thomas seeing the final year of his deal, even if it's just four years total is very slim.

Personally i would keep the picks and the cap room unless Thomas gave us a deal commensurate with what he is NOW and will be going forward. For years from now he won't be 80 percent of the player he is now, so any salary needs to take that into account.

The value of this trade for the Cowboys is totally dependent on when Thomas falls off the cliff athletically. It's coming. The question is when. Seattle knows more about him than we do and they want no part of an extension. Buyer beware.

 

[EST_1986]

If Thomas can finish out his career similar to the way Ed Reed did then he’s worth it

 

[CATCH17]

We all know who Earl Thomas WAS during the prior part of his career, but what exactly is Earl Thomas now, and what is the current Earl Thomas worth?

I know many of you are wanting Earl Thomas to be a member of this Cowboys team, but you have to be careful what you wish for, because sometime you get it and wish you didn't have it.

Earl This as was arguably the best safety in the NFL, but Earl Thomas is OLD by NFL standards. He has also been recently injured.
He may be an improvement over what we currently have, but how much of an improvement, for how long, and at what price to the cap.

I am guessing the draft pick compensation will be a third round pick, give or take plus Thomas will want to "get paid". Seattle seems to desperately want to get rid of him. Why aren't any other teams besides the Cowboys beating down his door to bring him aboard?

Thomas may justify a trade this year to the Cowboys, but what about next year, or the year after, or the year after that? The odds of Thomas seeing the final year of his deal, even if it's just four years total is very slim.

Personally i would keep the picks and the cap room unless Thomas gave us a deal commensurate with what he is NOW and will be going forward. For years from now he won't be 80 percent of the player he is now, so any salary needs to take that into account.

The value of this trade for the Cowboys is totally dependent on when Thomas falls off the cliff athletically. It's coming. The question is when. Seattle knows more about him than we do and they want no part of an extension. Buyer beware.

He's not old by NFL standards yet.


Somehow we've applied the 30 year old Runningback rule to all positions now and it's just not true.


A lot of positions can play well into their 30's. Safety is a position where we have seen a lot of greats have loooong careers.

 

[Stash]

We all know who Earl Thomas WAS during the prior part of his career, but what exactly is Earl Thomas now, and what is the current Earl Thomas worth?

I know many of you are wanting Earl Thomas to be a member of this Cowboys team, but you have to be careful what you wish for, because sometime you get it and wish you didn't have it.

Earl This as was arguably the best safety in the NFL, but Earl Thomas is OLD by NFL standards. He has also been recently injured.
He may be an improvement over what we currently have, but how much of an improvement, for how long, and at what price to the cap.

I am guessing the draft pick compensation will be a third round pick, give or take plus Thomas will want to "get paid". Seattle seems to desperately want to get rid of him. Why aren't any other teams besides the Cowboys beating down his door to bring him aboard?

Thomas may justify a trade this year to the Cowboys, but what about next year, or the year after, or the year after that? The odds of Thomas seeing the final year of his deal, even if it's just four years total is very slim.

Personally i would keep the picks and the cap room unless Thomas gave us a deal commensurate with what he is NOW and will be going forward. For years from now he won't be 80 percent of the player he is now, so any salary needs to take that into account.

The value of this trade for the Cowboys is totally dependent on when Thomas falls off the cliff athletically. It's coming. The question is when. Seattle knows more about him than we do and they want no part of an extension. Buyer beware.

I can see your reasoning, but I'd have to know what your specific terms are when it comes to that "commensurate deal"?

 

[Stash]

He's not old by NFL standards yet.


Somehow we've applied the 30 year old Runningback rule to all positions now and it's just not true.


A lot of positions can play well into their 30's. Safety is a position where we have seen a lot of greats have loooong careers.

Charles Woodsaon and Ed Reed come to mind. Both were Pro Bowlers at the top of their game well into their 30's.

 

[dcstar]

Personally, I wouldn't give anything for him...simply because he possibly will be a free agent next year...and I don't think he is the missing link to the Superbowl. He is a talent no doubt but no way would I give up a premium pick.

I kinda like the secondary we have now and would like to see what they will do.

Go Cowboys!

 

[Verdict]

He's not old by NFL standards yet.


Somehow we've applied the 30 year old Runningback rule to all positions now and it's just not true.


A lot of positions can play well into their 30's. Safety is a position where we have seen a lot of greats have loooong careers.

He could. He might. He might also fall off a cliff next year. No one really knows.

Do you think he will be playing as good or better than he is now in 4 years? I don't. The smart money is betting against it.

That doesn't mean that he won't be useful, but will he be worth his contract number? Thats the $64,000 question.

 

[Verdict]

Personally, I wouldn't give anything for him...simply because he possibly will be a free agent next year...and I don't think he is the missing link to the Superbowl. He is a talent no doubt but no way would I give up a premium pick.

I kinda like the secondary we have now and would like to see what they will do.

Go Cowboys!

If Thomas would sign for $10 million per year for 4 years, all guaranteed, I would probably do that deal on both ends. Anything over that puts way too much risk on the Cowboys, especially with the draft pick compensation.

I wouldn't pay him $15 million per year. No way, no how.

 

[Verdict]

Charles Woodsaon and Ed Reed come to mind. Both were Pro Bowlers at the top of their game well into their 30's.

Yeah, but you don't know that he will be able to do that, and he has been hurt recently.

 

[Stash]

Personally, I wouldn't give anything for him...simply because he possibly will be a free agent next year...and I don't think he is the missing link to the Superbowl. He is a talent no doubt but no way would I give up a premium pick.

I kinda like the secondary we have now and would like to see what they will do.

Go Cowboys!

I think that a great point, and a key factor:

Do you think that this team can compete for a championship with Earl Thomas this year?

If so, a 3rd round pick isn't that high of a price to pay, even with a big contract on top of it. I mean, how much is too much to pay in order to win it all?

But if you don't think this team is quite ready to win it all yet, waiting makes better sense. Keep your draft picks to restock even further, after all, this team has been drafting well lately. And then you can add the player to make your run in 2019.

 

[Verdict]

I can see your reasoning, but I'd have to know what your specific terms are when it comes to that "commensurate deal"?

It would be a bad risk to pay him top 5 money for the next 4 or 5 years. Every year he plays the probability that he falls off a cliff goes up.

I would not sign him to a 5 year contract expecting him to see the end of that contract. Three years is a reasonable time for him to perform at a high level. Anything after that is dicey.

 

[Stash]

Yeah, but you don't know that he will be able to do that, and he has been hurt recently.

And conversely, you also don't know that he won't or can't.

 

[Verdict]

I really prefer we don't make the trade. I think it would look OK for two years and then we would regret it after that.

 

[Stash]

It would be a bad risk to pay him top 5 money for the next 4 or 5 years. Every year he plays the probability that he falls off a cliff goes up.

I would not sign him to a 5 year contract expecting him to see the end of that contract. Three years is a reasonable time for him to perform at a high level. Anything after that is dicey.

I'd agree with that, and that's a big part of my own 4-years, $40 million deal, with $20 million guaranteed. The player gets two years guaranteed for certain, and likely three based on costs. The fourth year is there alsmot for "decoration" and gives both sides the option to revisit things then.

 

[Stash]

I really prefer we don't make the trade. I think it would look OK for two years and then we would regret it after that.

But how good could those "two years" be? If one of them included a championship, would one year of "regret" following that championship more than make up for it?

Essentially, what's the price on a Super Bowl if you felt like this would get your team over the hump?

 

[Verdict]

And conversely, you also don't know that he won't or can't.

That's true. That's the part involving the risk. But you can't ignore that risk. That's why you want a discount for the later years maybe with bonus incentives.

You don't pay him as if he definitely will play at a high level for the duaruion of his contract when there is a substantial chance he won't. That's too much shifting of risk to the team. The player needs to bear a portion of the risk involved.

 

[Verdict]

But how good could those "two years" be? If one of them included a championship, would one year of "regret" following that championship more than make up for it?

Essentially, what's the price on a Super Bowl if you felt like this would get your team over the hump?

I don't think Earl Thomas is enough of a factor to assume that he will put us over the hump. He could be an impactful player for a time. But safety isn't like QB.

 

[J12B]

After seeing what the 49ers gave up for Garappolo (a second round pick), who is a young QB on the rise and a high ceiling, there's no way Dallas should give up anything more than a 3rd rounder. Thomas has reached his peak and much of his success came from being on such a strong defensive unit for most of his career.

If anything, I would set the price at a 4th rounder with the condition to become a 3rd rounder if he meets performance expectations.

 

[Verdict]

I'd agree with that, and that's a big part of my own 4-years, $40 million deal, with $20 million guaranteed. The player gets two years guaranteed for certain, and likely three based on costs. The fourth year is there alsmot for "decoration" and gives both sides the option to revisit things then.

That's reasonable assuming they think he can play play three years which is a reasonable risk. The other side of that coin it would you rather have ET, or Hankins/Poe. Both would have been cheaper and more impactful on this defense.

If we saved the money from Poe and Hankins, I don't know why we would spend it in ET. It harken back to the Jerry days of old and the old way of doing business, paying for names past their prime. I really prefer the current way we are handling things. Let's don't go backward.

 

[alicetooljam]

Hes got an elite 2-3 years left.