What is New England plotting with their 60M of cap space?

[waldoputty]

I like Berry quite a bit but if he has a cap hit 5 years from now that is 24 mil I say, no thanks.

ah the whole point is to cut after year 3.
yes there would be dead money, but that is the price of contending in 2017-2019.
there would be plenty of ways to absorb dead money since those would be year 1-2 of Dak's multiyear contract where the salaries would be $1M per year.
that would also be the case if Zeke and/or Jaylon get an extension.

 

[Alexander]

so you dont believe the cowboys would try to get a real DL this year even when they darn well know they need one?

Nope. Not the "War Daddy" everyone thinks they will get.

if you accept that, then it is the DB.
do you resign Mo who cannot stay healthy or get someone who can and plays well?

Disgusting but likely.

no, i am not a quant.
i made myself do it because people are making statements that are simply wrong.

Arguing theory with mathematics is kind of "quant".

 

[Killerinstinct]

ah the whole point is to cut after year 3.
yes there would be dead money, but that is the price of contending in 2017-2019.
there would be plenty of ways to absorb dead money since those would be year 1-2 of Dak's multiyear contract where the salaries would be $1M per year.
that would also be the case if Zeke and/or Jaylon get an extension.

absorbing dead money is the exact opposite of what the strategy should be.

 

[waldoputty]

Nope. Not the "War Daddy" everyone thinks they will get.

Disgusting but likely.

Arguing theory with mathematics is kind of "quant".

The FO knows what the team needs.
What they do will tell us a lot about what they are.
I suspect it will be Jerry wanting to do it and Stephen trying to save $.
Though with this offense, what are we saving $ for?
There is no way to spend the $90M in cap by 2019 if we do not start buying FAs.

Cap discussions are by nature Quant.
To do so without any math is just pure fluff.

 

[waldoputty]

absorbing dead money is the exact opposite of what the strategy should be.

the strategy should be about winning superbowls by whatever means necessary.
how we get there is secondary.

 

[cowboyblue22]

we are barely under the cap and restructuring contracts meanwhile bellicheat has 60million under the cap and lots of draft picks with how weak the afc is and the afc east you can bet the farm they will be in the superbowl next season and we may not even make the playoffs

 

[waving monkey]

we are barely under the cap and restructuring contracts meanwhile bellicheat has 60million under the cap and lots of draft picks with how weak the afc is and the afc east you can bet the farm they will be in the superbowl next season and we may not even make the playoffs

The Pats having been drafting well and put in place financial plan long ago. We are playing catch up to smart management but we are catching up.
We have a good QB in place

 

[Killerinstinct]

the strategy should be about winning superbowls by whatever means necessary.
how we get there is secondary.

Which strategy do you think is working better? The one NE uses or ours? You are advocating making sure we end up in the same boat in the future that we are now. Restructuring contracts to cover dead money.

Jerry needs to get tougher when it comes to negotiating contracts. You can't have the highest paid player at every position.

He has gotten smarter when it comes to figuring out who's contract to restructure. Using O-linemen is smart because they have long careers and normally don't miss a lot of time. That is about to be tested though. I wouldn't touch Crawford, Lee or Dez's contracts.

Bite the bullet this year. Get rid of Romo. Use the minimum amount of restructuring as possible. Then the future looks much brighter.

 

[waldoputty]

Which strategy do you think is working better? The one NE uses or ours? You are advocating making sure we end up in the same boat in the future that we are now. Restructuring contracts to cover dead money.

Jerry needs to get tougher when it comes to negotiating contracts. You can't have the highest paid player at every position.

He has gotten smarter when it comes to figuring out who's contract to restructure. Using O-linemen is smart because they have long careers and normally don't miss a lot of time. That is about to be tested though. I wouldn't touch Crawford, Lee or Dez's contracts.

Bite the bullet this year. Get rid of Romo. Use the minimum amount of restructuring as possible. Then the future looks much brighter.

Neither.
NE has been successful to a great extent because they lucked into Brady.
I am saying that our luck will be pointing up also because Dak would allow us to spend money and draft picks in other needed positions.

The problem is the assets we have now age quickly - I mean Dez and Zeke.
If we are going to leverage them, that means improving the D quickly.
That means going big on FAs.

Some think that would blow up the cap.
I came up with a scenario that does tank in 2021 or 2022 for high draft picks.
When others complained of a built-in tank, then I came up with a scenario that punts the FAs after 3 years without the built-in tanking.

We could have 3 glorious years, and then 2 years with reduced cap space (but not cap explosion).
furthermore if we draft well in 2017-2020, we would not skip a beat because WR1/DE/CB positions would be restocked by the draft.
if we do not draft well, we would have 2 lower-performance years but then we could reload in both the draft and FA spending cap would be reset and we can do the same thing again (2-3 top D FAs).

either way, it would be back to more fun because the QB position is now settled hopefully for 15 years.

 

[Hoofbite]

that is what having stability at QB with the most dominant QB for 20 years allows you to do.
furthermore the QB gives the team team-friendly deals because he wants to be the greatest ever.
hope dak stays healthy for 20 years and you will see similar levels of cap flexibility as time moves on - even after his rookie deal.

Well, there's more to it than just their QB. They aren't afraid to trade guys with value, they load up on draft picks, and they are willing to send a garbage pick for a player like Martellus Bennett even if it means he might not be their ideal team player because they know he will be the team player asked of him or he will be cut.

 

[waldoputty]

Well, there's more to it than just their QB. They aren't afraid to trade guys with value, they load up on draft picks, and they are willing to send a garbage pick for a player like Martellus Bennett even if it means he might not be their ideal team player because they know he will be the team player asked of him or he will be cut.

true, they are smart and innovative.
but nailing the most dominant QB in the era with team friendly contracts was the enabling factor for their innovation.
it allowed them 15-20 years of dominance, even under the much more difficult cap situation.

 

[cowboyblue22]

their qb is a big part of the puzzle but there head coach is really huge in what they do they change players and it never effect what they do because the head man know really well what he is doing

 

[CF74]

They are gonna drop Big $$$$ on T-Willy and rule the league.

 

[Hoofbite]

true, they are smart and innovative.
but nailing the most dominant QB in the era with team friendly contracts was the enabling factor for their innovation.
it allowed them 15-20 years of dominance, even under the much more difficult cap situation.

I dunno if his contract are all that team friendly. They made him the highest paid player in 2010 and the guy was 35 and 38-years old when they reworked his deals with loads of new guarantees. His average for the 2010 contract was $18M, which is what Romo was given 3 years later so it's hard to see how that would be "team friendly".

From 2010 on, Spotract has his cash earnings at $122M through 2016. That's $17M per year, but it will drop a little to $15M per year due to a low base salary this year. That's where it will stay for the remainder of his current contract. Has he been flexible with the team to accommodate the years where they were limited in cap space? Absolutely. They took a big hit in dead money when they cut the murderer, Hernandez. His willingness to go back to the table has helped the team but it has also cost them because each time they have done so they have re-upped on guarantees.

If he plays out the last 3 years of his deal, from 2010 on he'll have made $150M. Of that, a total of $90M was guaranteed at some point.

He had 2 years remaining on his contract the last time they signed a revised deal. He was 38 years old and they added 2 years, $41M to the end of the deal. $28M guaranteed. They basically just gave him $28M. Added $22M to their team cap for a guy who will be 40 and 41 at the start of the seasons they tacked on. It almost looks like the back end of an agreement that was made years prior when the Patriots were tight up against the cap. Lower you cap hit for a couple years, Tom, and we'll make sure that we square up when we have the free cap space.

$150M over 10 years, $90M of which guaranteed along the way. Was it less than he could have demanded? Probably, but it wasn't by so much that it's allowed the team to have the run that they have had. Given that they don't really utilize restructuring, they certainly could have freed up the cap space they needed via that route had Tom demanded more money. I guess they'd be sitting at $45M to $50M under the cap now instead of $60M.

 

[waldoputty]

I dunno if his contract are all that team friendly. They made him the highest paid player in 2010 and the guy was 35 and 38-years old when they reworked his deals with loads of new guarantees. His average for the 2010 contract was $18M, which is what Romo was given 3 years later so it's hard to see how that would be "team friendly".

From 2010 on, Spotract has his cash earnings at $122M through 2016. That's $17M per year, but it will drop a little to $15M per year due to a low base salary this year. That's where it will stay for the remainder of his current contract. Has he been flexible with the team to accommodate the years where they were limited in cap space? Absolutely. They took a big hit in dead money when they cut the murderer, Hernandez. His willingness to go back to the table has helped the team but it has also cost them because each time they have done so they have re-upped on guarantees.

If he plays out the last 3 years of his deal, from 2010 on he'll have made $150M. Of that, a total of $90M was guaranteed at some point.

He had 2 years remaining on his contract the last time they signed a revised deal. He was 38 years old and they added 2 years, $41M to the end of the deal. $28M guaranteed. They basically just gave him $28M. Added $22M to their team cap for a guy who will be 40 and 41 at the start of the seasons they tacked on. It almost looks like the back end of an agreement that was made years prior when the Patriots were tight up against the cap. Lower you cap hit for a couple years, Tom, and we'll make sure that we square up when we have the free cap space.

$150M over 10 years, $90M of which guaranteed along the way. Was it less than he could have demanded? Probably, but it wasn't by so much that it's allowed the team to have the run that they have had. Given that they don't really utilize restructuring, they certainly could have freed up the cap space they needed via that route had Tom demanded more money. I guess they'd be sitting at $45M to $50M under the cap now instead of $60M.

I dont know.
Tom Brady is worth at least $30M/yr, and probably more.

If Brady was auctioned off, the sky is the limit.
Look at the comps.
should Brady be worth at least 2 Flaccos?

Team Total
Value Avg./Year Total
Guaranteed Avg.
Guar./Year % Guar. Free
Agency
Andrew Luck Colts $122,970,000 $24,594,000 $47,000,000 $9,400,000 38.2% 2022 UFA
Drew Brees Saints $24,250,000 $24,250,000 $24,250,000 $24,250,000 100.0% 2018 UFA
Joe Flacco Ravens $66,400,000 $22,133,333 $44,000,000 $14,666,667 66.3% 2022 UFA
Aaron Rodgers Packers $110,000,000 $22,000,000 $54,000,000 $10,800,000 49.1% 2020 UFA
Russell Wilson Seahawks $87,600,000 $21,900,000 $31,700,000 $7,925,000 36.2% 2020 UFA
Ben Roethlisberger Steelers $87,400,000 $21,850,000 $34,250,000 $8,562,500 39.2% 2020 UFA
Carson Palmer Cardinals $21,000,000 $21,000,000 $11,650,000 $11,650,000 55.5% 2019 UFA
Eli Manning Giants $84,000,000 $21,000,000 $36,500,000 $9,125,000 43.5% 2020 UFA
Philip Rivers Chargers $83,250,000 $20,812,500 $37,500,000 $9,375,000 45.0% 2020 UFA
Cam Newton Panthers $103,800,000 $20,760,000 $41,000,000 $8,200,000 39.5% 2021 UFA
Matt Ryan Falcons $103,750,000 $20,750,000 $42,000,000 $8,400,000 40.5% 2019 UFA
Tom Brady Patriots $41,000,000 $20,500,000 $28,000,000 $14,000,000 68.3% 2020 UFA
Kirk Cousins Commanders $19,953,000 $19,953,000 $19,953,000 $19,953,000 100.0% 2017 UFA

 

[viman96]

Pats should trade Brady to get a ton of picks and move forward with Garoppolo hahahahahahaha

 

[Nightman]

they get to be the gold standard because they had brady for 20 years.
that allowed them to have a lot of cap advantages and drafting advantages other do not.

and they are a one yard from Beast Mode and an ATL FG from 0 SBs in 13 years with Brady and Belichick

cutting star players and being arrogant has cost them dearly....they traded Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins and let D Revis walk and were losing 28-3 in the SB before ATL enjoyed a Choke and a Smile

they won so they get to strut but they we really close to disaster

 

[waldoputty]

and they are a one yard from Beast Mode and an ATL FG from 0 SBs in 13 years with Brady and Belichick

cutting star players and being arrogant has cost them dearly....they traded Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins and let D Revis walk and were losing 28-3 in the SB before ATL enjoyed a Choke and a Smile

they won so they get to strut but they we really close to disaster

yep, but they have now $60M to spend or more, and it is frightening what they would do with it.
i can see they reload for the ages as their last hurrah before brady/belicheat retires.
can you imagine how good they could be with that?

this is what we have to compete with if you want to superbowl.
with the current DL, we would have trouble getting by the packers without yet another shootout.

 

[DandyDon52]

the head coach makes all the difference in the world their brady is huge but the head man is the one that is the magic

well they have made a good team, and since they started winning all the time, players wanting a good shot at a ring
will go there cheap, hoping they get a SB ring.

Heck Romo and witten should go to NE, cheap, even as bkups, and they might get that ring.
Pretty sure bill would sign witten if he was cheap. and tony too, only brady would have to be hurt for Romo to play.

 

[Hoofbite]

I dont know.
Tom Brady is worth at least $30M/yr, and probably more.

Up until 3 or 4 years ago that would have been 25% of a team's cap, and nobody is giving a 40-year old $30M per year.

If Brady was auctioned off, the sky is the limit.

Free agency isn't an auction. Highest bid doesn't always win. What the most desperate team would pay for the best QB in the NFL doesn't matter if the best QB in the NFL absolutely will not play for that team. What the most desperate team would/could pay probably would exceed what the team who signed the guy actually did pay. That doesn't mean the team got a great deal that is cap friendly because the most desperate team determined the "market value" for the best QB. The QB wouldn't play for the most desperate team so they're irrelevant. They weren't even in the market.

Look at the comps.
should Brady be worth at least 2 Flaccos?

The comps are skewed by the fact that they were signed in different years under different cap circumstances and by different teams. Brady may be worth 2 or even 3 Flacco's but that doesn't mean Joe Flacco is the guy who has the correct contract and Brady's contract should be based off Flacco's numbers. There have been a number of players who have outplayed Flacco over the years and who have made less than him. The 49ers gave $19M/year for Kaepernick and he's been struggling to even be their starter at times. If the 49ers were smart they'd just cut him.

The Bears gave Jay Cutler just as much as Flacco and Cutler flat out sucks. In fact, he has the highest active contract value of any QB. Of any player for that matter. Relative to Cutler, guys like Rodgers, Brady, Ryan, or even Dak are probably worth at least twice as much. That doesn't mean those guys deserve contracts that are worth $35M/year, it just means that the Bears made a horrible decision and nobody is going to follow their lead. If one team made it a requirement for all teams to match, teams would be suffering from the contract the Skins gave to Haynesworth. He received $14M/year and it wasn't for another 5 years that a contract was signed that bested it. Why? Because stupid franchises don't set the market with each new contract they sign.

You're also comparing averages. Longer contracts typically have higher averages as base salaries increase towards the end of the deal. Cutler has an average of $18M, is there any chance he gets his $19.2M base and $2.5M roster bonus in 2020? Any chance he gets his $17.5M base and $2.5M roster bonus in 2019? For a guy who is turnover prone, has a career QB rating of 85.7, and who could potentially have lead his team to it's 7th consecutive losing season? Absolutely not. I wouldn't even be confident he's on their roster this year if I were him. All of a sudden his lead-leading contract total just lost 57% of it's total value. Brady has basically been getting small 2 and 3 year extensions. There are no later years.

The cap is increasing and as long as it continues to increase, the contract numbers will climb. Tom Brady is almost 40-years-old. No one should expect him to have contract on par with Andrew Luck who is just 27-years-old. Same goes for Russell Wilson who's just 28 or even Aaron Rodgers who, at the age of 33, is still significantly younger than Brady while also being significantly older than the other two.

Tom Brady signed a contract to be the highest paid player in the NFL in 2010. $18M/year at a time when the cap was in the $120-$130M range. Right on par with Peyton Manning who signed an $18M/year deal just a year later. Now that we are sitting at a cap projected to be $168M, the present day equivalent of that contract in terms of cap percentage would be $24.5M/year. Brady hasn't been underpaid just as Manning hasn't been underpaid. They just played for a long time and most of their career was in a completely different world in terms of the salary cap. The cap has almost tripled since they came into the league.

Aaron Rodgers will ultimately have the same thing happen to him, just as all the players you are saying Brady should be making more than will. If Rodgers was a 29-year-old free agent right now as he was in 2013, he might actually get $30M/year. His $22M/year under a $123M cap is equivalent to $30M/year in todays cap, percentage-wise.