Who wants to guess Ezekiel Elliott rookie season yards?

[lane]

Depends on how many touches he gets...

We got run dmc and morris too.

if he turns into our primary running back...katy bar the door ..looking at rookie of the year type numbers.

you feel me homeboy?

 

[StarBoyz83]

700-800 yards

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

As the title says, let's all guess how many yards Elliott will get in his rookie reason. I'll say at 1500 yards for his first season in the NFL.

y

900 yards. Romo will throw a lot to deal and written. As always.

 

[KB1122]

800-950

 

[CF74]

Hope 1,850+
Believe 1,350+

 

[waldoputty]

2500 yards


rewrite record books after cowboys installed a new offense that utilizes 7 OL 2 wr 2 rb and 0 qb

both rb's line up in shotgun depth spread 5 yards apart
both rb's can receive snap from center - no qb needed
zeke, morris and dmc take turns as the 2 rb's.

zeke - 2500 yards
morris - 1500 yards
dmc - 800 yards

total rushing yards average out to 300 yards per game.
romo retires.

averaging passing yards per game - 100 yards
zeke also leads teams in passing - 55% completion % 800 yards 5 tds.

team wins super bowl because no one has enough quality defensive lineman to match up.
defenses have no choice but play at least 6 DL.
7 OL = original starting 5 + leary and green

 

[Hardline]

1200 yards.
Not because he will be the bell cow but because he is going to break a lot of huge yardage gains in his limited snaps.

 

[CyberB0b]

You think he's going to get hurt, or do you just think he's that much worse than McFadden?

I think he will slowly work into the mix. The days of a 30 carry a game running back are gone. I don't think he's Adrian Peterson either.

 

[Jason 82 Witten]

Ok I guess 979 11 TDs

 

[Alohawg1]

He's in a great situation, no pressure to prove his high selection, just learn from veterans and perform when opportunity is given. I can see him getting 12-15 touches a game for the first half of the season, then depending on how he and others do, increasing to 15-20.
I'll go with 850 yds. rushing/250 yds. passing/ 7 td.'s.

 

[JDSmith]

He's in a great situation, no pressure to prove his high selection, just learn from veterans and perform when opportunity is given. I can see him getting 12-15 touches a game for the first half of the season, then depending on how he and others do, increasing to 15-20.
I'll go with 850 yds. rushing/250 yds. passing/ 7 td.'s.

IMO it definitely helps to put in ypc. It clarifies the thought process. In your case you have him down for 3.9 ypc at the most. I don't mean to call you out specifically, but you mentioned touches and your yardage just doesn't add up unless you think he's going to be an absolute bust. I have seen a number of people say that they believe he's only going to get 800 - 900 yards on the ground. So I have to wonder if they think he's just not going to get the ball, or if they think he's going to be so much worse than McFadden that he won't be able to at least match DMC's 4.6 ypc average behind the same line (but with a real QB).

 

[Alohawg1]

IMO it definitely helps to put in ypc. It clarifies the thought process. In your case you have him down for 3.9 ypc at the most. I don't mean to call you out specifically, but you mentioned touches and your yardage just doesn't add up unless you think he's going to be an absolute bust. I have seen a number of people say that they believe he's only going to get 800 - 900 yards on the ground. So I have to wonder if they think he's just not going to get the ball, or if they think he's going to be so much worse than McFadden that he won't be able to at least match DMC's 4.6 ypc average behind the same line (but with a real QB).

Touches do not equal rushes. Some touches will be pass receptions. Let's say he averages the low end 12 touches per game for first 8 games and 15 the second 8 games, playoffs not a given. That's 216 touches, now take the 850 yds. rushing plus the 250 yds. receiving for a total of 1100 yds. That gives him 5.0 yd. avg. per touch on the low end. Now on the high end, yes, a 3.9 yd. per touch avg.. But if you take and average between the two, the high and low, you get an avg. of 4.45 yds. per touch.
So, I actually have him at 3.9 at the least, 5.0 at most and an average of, again, 4.45, a very respectable number for a rookie. Hope this helps.
If we make the playoffs, just extrapolate out.

 

[JDSmith]

Touches do not equal rushes. Some touches will be pass receptions. Let's say he averages the low end 12 touches per game for first 8 games and 15 the second 8 games, playoffs not a given. That's 216 touches, now take the 850 yds. rushing plus the 250 yds. receiving for a total of 1100 yds. That gives him 5.0 yd. avg. per touch on the low end. Now on the high end, yes, a 3.9 yd. per touch avg.. But if you take and average between the two, the high and low, you get an avg. of 4.45 yds. per touch.
So, I actually have him at 3.9 at the least, 5.0 at most and an average of, again, 4.45, a very respectable number for a rookie. Hope this helps.
If we make the playoffs, just extrapolate out.

Receptions are almost always higher than rushes and would bolster the number. To average 4.45 yards per touch would likely mean a horrifically low rushing average. I haven't looked up any rookie numbers, so maybe that is respectable for a rookie, but it sounds like it's really low.

I'd have to say that IMO if he only averages 4.45 yards per touch we'll have wasted a 4th overall pick. We could find any free agent off the street to average better than that. McFadden, a guy most people here didn't even want after being cast off by the Raiders, averaged 5.1 yards per touch last year. I'll personally be very disappointed if Zeke isn't better than McFadden.

I really hope you are wrong.

 

[Mountaineerfan]

I'm not going to jinx it.

 

[DTown214]

800-950

So you think he gets injured week 8?

 

[waldoputty]

Receptions are almost always higher than rushes and would bolster the number. To average 4.45 yards per touch would likely mean a horrifically low rushing average. I haven't looked up any rookie numbers, so maybe that is respectable for a rookie, but it sounds like it's really low.

I'd have to say that IMO if he only averages 4.45 yards per touch we'll have wasted a 4th overall pick. We could find any free agent off the street to average better than that. McFadden, a guy most people here didn't even want after being cast off by the Raiders, averaged 5.1 yards per touch last year. I'll personally be very disappointed if Zeke isn't better than McFadden.

I really hope you are wrong.

yep, totally agree.
with this ol, zeke should be significantly better than dmc.
people should go look at some tape regarding how zeke make people miss while dmc cannot.

with dmc at 5.1, i would say 6 for zeke even if that sounds really historically high - it is the OL (knock on wood).
assuming 16 games and 13-15 carries per game, that is 208-240 carries assuming no major injuries (knock on wood).
total = 1248-1440 yards - so i picked 1350 yards.

 

[Alohawg1]

I hope Elliot breaks all rookie rushing records and is SB mvp. But I've been around long enough to see a few....Remember there is no sure thing in the nfl, look no further than Archie Griffin, another OSU legend.

 

[JohnsKey19]

Between 0 and 2000.

We've got a huge story on our hands if you're wrong, one way or another.

 

[waldoputty]

I hope Elliot breaks all rookie rushing records and is SB mvp. But I've been around long enough to see a few....Remember there is no sure thing in the nfl, look no further than Archie Griffin, another OSU legend.

your best case scenario of 5 ypc is worse than DMC's 5.1ypc and Randle's 5.24ypc.
there is no sure thing, but your prediction means you think the #4 pick was wasted no matter what.

 

[JDSmith]

your best case scenario of 5 ypc is worse than DMC's 5.1ypc and Randle's 5.24ypc.
there is no sure thing, but your prediction means you think the #4 pick was wasted no matter what.

At least he put a number of touches, a lot of people are predicting 800 - 950 yards and not mentioning how often he'll get the ball. I really hope that a lot of people are seriously underestimating how Zeke will perform behind this line, but it might just be that they are throwing out what they consider a decent number of yards for a rookie without giving it any more thought. To me, less that 1,000 yards would be disastrous, simply because I think he'll get the ball 17 - 20 times per game on average, and I can't imagine him not having a better ypc than McFadden. Behind this line, with Romo there to keep the defenses honest, I can't imagine how he'll do worse than the guys we've had back there recently, unless he's a bust.