Who's Laughing at Travis Frederick Now?

[adamknite]

I think some posters miss the criticism regarding Frederick and the draft. It's not that he was taken, but whether he was taken too high with respect to his value, or whether other teams ranked him.

Now, none of us knows for sure. But if Frederick could have been had in a lower round, then his value was not worth taking in the first round. Even if he becomes a Hall of Famer. If, however, we wouldn't have gotten him in a lower round, then to take him in the first round was a good move.

It's the same argument I make with regards to Tom Brady. Now that we know Tom Brady will be a Hall of Famer, many think he should have been taken in the first round. No, he shouldn't have, not based on how he was rated at the time of the draft. Let's assume, only the Patriots knew that Brady would be a multiple Super Bowl-winning quarterback and no other franchise did. Would the Patriots have drafted him in the first round with this knowledge? No. Why? Because his value wasn't first round value at the time he was picked. The draft is all about selecting a player where you think he should be taken. The Cowboys took Jason Witten in the third round. Witten has proven that he was worthy of a first-round pick. But because of his value, he went lower. And if everyone else thought Witten wasn't worth a second or third, the Cowboys did the wise thing in drafting him where his value was worth.

Having said that, I'm glad the Cowboys have invested in the offensive line. That's where the game is won, particularly in this offensive-minded league.

In all respect and IMHO I think the Witten analogy works against your point in a certain way. It was said at the time that we were looking at Witten in the second round but decided a need for a center (Al Johnson) was more pressing than TE and it just happened that Witten fall to us again a round later and we lucked out and got both guys. If we didn't know Witten was going to fall to us a round later and had taken him in round 2 and still got his career production thus far... would anybody be complaining? No, of course not because we had no idea he would still be there in the third and we got a HOF TE in the second round...

It's all hindsight, we didn't know 100% that Frederick would be there a round later or even half a round later so we took the guy we wanted right there. It's not a reach if you get the production you want/expect and the value is worth it to you. What if we had gambled that we could get Frederick later and lost out? Then people would be claiming we were fools for passing on him...

If the Patriots had drafted Tom Brady three rounds earlier would they have been looked at as "reaching"... yes... but three super bowls later do you think anybody would be questioning their choice then? No. It's not about what the pick is worth to other teams or other people, it's about what the picks is worth to you and your team and sometimes you have to make sure you get your guy no matter what. It's all a gamble that way.

we got this one right... I say lets enjoy it and not worry about where he was drafted. Fred has been a great pick so far.

 

[Doc50]

I will still and will always say it was a serious reach...

If you buy a car worth 15k dollars for 25k dollars and it runs great and runs for 10 years... you still paid 10k to much for it.

The blue book on cars is a bit more reliable than it is on humans, especially complex for athletes. There will always be hits and misses.

Fred would have been ranked a lot higher if the other draft geniuses had been able to properly project his production and worth.

In hindsight, he may have been a steal even at that draft spot. Callahan deserves some credit.

 

[tyke1doe]

holy cow im so glad youre not our GM.

Actually, what he said makes sense. If a car costs $10,000, you don't pay $25,000 for it even though you know it may appreciate in value to $150,000.

But the caveat is that none of us knows whether Frederick was going to be there. So it's silly calling people out because it's possible had we waited, we could have missed him. It's possible we could have gotten him even in the second round.

Nobody knows.

 

[tyke1doe]

In all respect and IMHO I think the Witten analogy works against your point in a certain way. It was said at the time that we were looking at Witten in the second round but decided a need for a center (Al Johnson) was more pressing than TE and it just happened that Witten fall to us again a round later and we lucked out and got both guys. If we didn't know Witten was going to fall to us a round later and had taken him in round 2 and still got his career production thus far... would anybody be complaining? No, of course not because we had no idea he would still be there in the third and we got a HOF TE in the second round...

Actually, it doesn't go against my point. We had Al Johnson valued HIGHER than we had Witten. His worth to us was more than what Witten would have brought at that pick at that time.

It's all hindsight, we didn't know 100% that Frederick would be there a round later or even half a round later so we took the guy we wanted right there. It's not a reach if you get the production you want/expect and the value is worth it to you. What if we had gambled that we could get Frederick later and lost out? Then people would be claiming we were fools for passing on him...

I understand your point. Of course, we don't know whether the person we had taken instead of Frederick would have been just as good for us. But the "what if" game is easy to play if hard to prove, so I accept your point.

If the Patriots had drafted Tom Brady three rounds earlier would they have been looked at as "reaching"... yes... but three super bowls later do you think anybody would be questioning their choice then? No. It's not about what the pick is worth to other teams or other people, it's about what the picks is worth to you and your team and sometimes you have to make sure you get your guy no matter what. It's all a gamble that way.

we got this one right... I say lets enjoy it and not worry about where he was drafted. Fred has been a great pick so far.

Fair enough.

 

[gmoney112]

You clearly lack the intelligence to understand something as simple as Market Value.

Oh look, someone took Finance 101 and now thinks they can morph it to back up their ridiculous opinion on a football player. You go boy.

Market Value is irrelevant except for establishing a baseline. If the ROI on capital is worth it, you take it all day erry day.

In this instance, it looks like Dallas did a fantastic job at evaluating an investment.

 

[adamknite]

Actually, it doesn't go against my point. We had Al Johnson valued HIGHER than we had Witten. His worth to us was more than what Witten would have brought at that pick at that time.



I understand your point. Of course, we don't know whether the person we had taken instead of Frederick would have been just as good for us. But the "what if" game is easy to play if hard to prove, so I accept your point.



Fair enough.

That's what is so infuriating and amazing about the draft... so many "what ifs", one could go on for days thinking about what could have been or what should have been in hindsight.

As long as we are on the end that comes out ahead more times than not... I'm happy. lolZ

 

[Doc50]

You clearly lack the intelligence to understand something as simple as Market Value.

If a Product (in this case Freddy) is deemed by the Market (the NFL) to have a certain Price (a draft grade) and you give up more than that that "market price" than you OVER PAID. (Reached)

Its not me and "internet dork scouts" it was the conscientious. Here's CBS sports ranking.
PROJECTED RANKING
OVERALLPOSITIONPROJ. RND.
5312

And these are similar and multiple. Just us "internet dorks"

RIGHT!


Now compound that with the fact that we are thin on D and could have drafted a Defensive player in the first round and still gotten Fred in the second instead of a worthless (to this point) TE then the Product would meet or exceed the "market value" .

It doesn't matter if all the widely-viewed reports have a player ranked lower than you do. If you want him and have him evaluated much higher, you'll be kicking yourself if another team sees the same thing as you, and selects him first.

I would rely upon my own scouts and coaches, rather than some media guide. And it is those actual NFL personnel experts that end up setting the value.

 

[tyke1doe]

We got a cmoney and a gmoney.

I'm confucious.

 

[LOBO7]

The Ravens were going to grab him @ 30 or 31 in the 1st round.
I believe they said this after the draft. 2 Starters for the price of one.

 

[tyke1doe]

That's what is so infuriating and amazing about the draft... so many "what ifs", one could go on for days thinking about what could have been or what should have been in hindsight.

As long as we are on the end that comes out ahead more times than not... I'm happy. lolZ

I agree. Often, it's pointless to engage in what if's. I'm just glad we're FINALLY hitting on the first round picks we make. That's going to go a long way to improving this team over the long haul.

As down as I was on the Cowboys before the season, I'm ESTATIC that the line is playing well. I've been preaching for years you have to build a solid team by strengthening the line. And that's why I don't see the Cowboys collapsing, as long as they continue to let the offensive line lead the way and as long as no one gets injured.

 

[viman96]

I think some posters miss the criticism regarding Frederick and the draft. It's not that he was taken, but whether he was taken too high with respect to his value, or whether other teams ranked him.

Really it is irrelevant how other teams valued Fredrick before the draft. What many naysayers rarely if ever mention is how the value of players change during the draft itself. Specifically for Travis it was going up fast due to the number of other OL were being picked. Per the Cowboys' board there were not other OL they had highly rated and not likely he would have lasted. Also people that still whine about the pick often times forgot Williams was part of the deal and he has to be included when referring to value.

The people that still complain after seeing Travis play and not recognize what he as done for the OL are obviously the type of folks that do not see the big picture. In addition I would bet they are likely never happy unless it goes exactly the way they see it.

 

[CATCH17]

He's been a great pick. I admit.. I was one of the people who hated the pick.

He still has some of the worst feet I've ever seen on a OL but he gets the job done at a high level.

 

[jazzcat22]

This being asked with some tongue in cheek...

What did Mel Kiper say going into the draft, what did he say after the Cowboys slected him, and what does he say now...

 

[cmoney23]

Wow, you still think we reached. This is a different offense without Travis Frederick. He wouldn't even fall to us if this draft were done over.

There where 5 Centers drafted TOTAL that year. Out of 250 some players! The next one came off the board at like Pick 100!!! I think it safe to say he would have lasted another, what 16 picks!!!

Its a Center!

 

[adamknite]

This being asked with some tongue in cheek...

What did Mel Kiper say going into the draft, what did he say after the Cowboys slected him, and what does he say now...

I know it's tongue in cheek... but I'm going to give a real response.

http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas-cowb...frederick-terrance-williams-earn-kiper-honors

"In his post-draft grades last April, Kiper wrote, “I was a little critical of the first-round pick, just because the Cowboys drafted a player I thought they could have taken at least 30 spots later. Travis Frederick was my 87th-ranked player. And yet they should get credit because he'll be a starter at a position where they were a total mess in 2013.” "

"In ranking the top 30 rookies, Kiper had Frederick at No. 11 and Williams at No. 28."

 

[cmoney23]

I guess that makes sense to you...I don't understand your point....
I have never seen anyone ever post we should have got Tony in the 1st round, even hypothetically. But I don't get read every thread or post either.

By saying that Travis was worth a first round pick because he is playing well now, is like saying we should have drafted Romo in the first because he is such a good player. Even though, coming out of college, Tony wasn't deserving of a first round or any draft pick!

He goes back to market value and projection.

 

[Primetime42]

I think some posters miss the criticism regarding Frederick and the draft. It's not that he was taken, but whether he was taken too high with respect to his value, or whether other teams ranked him.

Now, none of us knows for sure. But if Frederick could have been had in a lower round, then his value was not worth taking in the first round. Even if he becomes a Hall of Famer. If, however, we wouldn't have gotten him in a lower round, then to take him in the first round was a good move.

It's the same argument I make with regards to Tom Brady. Now that we know Tom Brady will be a Hall of Famer, many think he should have been taken in the first round. No, he shouldn't have, not based on how he was rated at the time of the draft. Let's assume, only the Patriots knew that Brady would be a multiple Super Bowl-winning quarterback and no other franchise did. Would the Patriots have drafted him in the first round with this knowledge? No. Why? Because his value wasn't first round value at the time he was picked. The draft is all about selecting a player where you think he should be taken. The Cowboys took Jason Witten in the third round. Witten has proven that he was worthy of a first-round pick. But because of his value, he went lower. And if everyone else thought Witten wasn't worth a second or third, the Cowboys did the wise thing in drafting him where his value was worth.

Having said that, I'm glad the Cowboys have invested in the offensive line. That's where the game is won, particularly in this offensive-minded league.

They wouldn't have been able to grab him in a lower round. Linemen were flying off the board.

 

[BBQ101]

Really it is irrelevant how other teams valued Fredrick before the draft. What many naysayers rarely if ever mention is how the value of players change during the draft itself. Specifically for Travis it was going up fast due to the number of other OL were being picked. Per the Cowboys' board there were not other OL they had highly rated and not likely he would have lasted. Also people that still whine about the pick often times forgot Williams was part of the deal and he has to be included when referring to value.

The people that still complain after seeing Travis play and not recognize what he as done for the OL are obviously the type of folks that do not see the big picture. In addition I would bet they are likely never happy unless it goes exactly the way they see it.

This is exactly right. There was a run on OL in that draft. That increases the value of the remaining pickings. cMoney I think is just trolling, but if not, he certainly doesn't understand this, or simply doesn't care. He makes a blanket statement saying we would have gotten him in the second, when in actuality I think it is far more likely Travis would never have been there for our second pick.

Still, how can anyone complain about the pick with the production we have gotten from it. Even with hindsight he thinks we screwed up. Like I said, I think he was just trollin.

BBQ

 

[cmoney23]

From what I recall the Ravens were going to use a high first on him...

Sure they where, and then they waited til pick 203 to address the Center position they so frantically wanted to address.

 

[Primetime42]

There where 5 Centers drafted TOTAL that year. Out of 250 some players! The next one came off the board at like Pick 100!!! I think it safe to say he would have lasted another, what 16 picks!!!

Its a Center!

Frederick had experience at all interior line positions and could have played any at the next level, unlike most centers.