Who's Laughing at Travis Frederick Now?

[AsthmaField]

ESPECIALLY if you look at our record of drafting O line for the previous 15 years before we started usin first rd picks. We had two guys we drafted that became mullti year starters- Gurode and Free. Out of how many picks?

It seemed like 500.

Somebody in the franchise is judging OL prospects way different that what Dallas was doing leading up to 2011. Even using first round picks, hitting on 3 in a row is against the odds. At the 9th pick? Ok, the talent is pretty easy to find there even though there are a lot of misses anyway. But at 16, it's not that easy and at 31 it's even more difficult.

Somebody is doing a very good job... and Callahan is coaching the hell out of those guys.

 

[starfrombirth]

I will still and will always say it was a serious reach...

If you buy a car worth 15k dollars for 25k dollars and it runs great and runs for 10 years... you still paid 10k to much for it.

That isn't an accurate analogy. Say instead you paid $10,000 for what everyone thinks is a 72 Ford 2wd pickup but once you get it home you find out it has the chasis and engine of a 2015 4wd Superduty. Did you still pay too much or did you steal one?

 

[jobberone]

What is the percentage of first round centers who play average to slightly better pass blocking and at a good to better level in run blocking their second year? If you can answer that then you will appreciate how long it takes to develop an interior lineman and what to expect of them over the life of their contract on a year to year basis.

 

[waving monkey]

I will still and will always say it was a serious reach...

If you buy a car worth 15k dollars for 25k dollars and it runs great and runs for 10 years... you still paid 10k to much for it.

Your analogy would be fine if this was an open market transaction but it it's not. The NFL operations under a different
legal structure. Any trading is more like a close market trade where only inside company trades are allowed. {NFL}
Other inside the company [teams] where a possible trade member. So for our inside transaction we received an additional
WR who is proving NFL worthy. The value of best center in the NFL at the 31st slot is seriously under valued plus the clown trade partner
kicked in a damn good good WR. Yap we over paid.

 

[NickZepp]

If we were to re do that draft today would Fredrick be around by the 31st pick?

 

[AsthmaField]

If we were to re do that draft today would Fredrick be around by the 31st pick?

Hell no. And the answer to that says it all.

 

[Ashwynn]

I will still and will always say it was a serious reach...

If you buy a car worth 15k dollars for 25k dollars and it runs great and runs for 10 years... you still paid 10k to much for it.

But by paying 25 K upfront, you only used 1 car for 10 years. If you bought that 15K car and it lasted 5-6 years, if your lucky, you have to spend another 15K + inflation so 20K, total expenditure over 10 years = 35K while you could have saved 10 K and bought the better car. Plus your neighbors not driving the better car while you work on yours every weekend.

Save a little now, pay more later, and vice versa.

Fredbeard was unknown, but I cant think of a better pick for the Cowboys in round one of that years draft. And the Commanders, Eagirls and Jints dont have him either. Win-win. Hes what we needed and I'm glad to have him hear.

 

[ConstantReboot]

You're missing my point. No sensible person would spend $15,000 on something that cost $10,000. And, no, venture capitalists do not do that all the time. What VC do is buy in bulk shares that are priced at $10,000 each. They don't say, "Hey, I know this share in X company costs $10,000. But I'm going to give you $15,000 for it and take 20."

What they do is buy shares at $10,000 and then use the money they have to buy more. If you're giving $15,000 for a share when it cost $10,000, you end up not owning as many shares as you could.

Venture capitalist do it MOST of the time. Rarely do they buy based on whats valued in the present but based their valuation on what they believe it to be in the future. If they have to pay a little more to acquire that - feature, idea, item, person, ertc. - they will and most often do.

Why do I know this? Cause I work for a consulting firm that does work with venture capitalists and they base it base on future valuation and ROI and not on present day market value. The examples I mentioned with Instagram is just one. They weren't even valued at 250 million dollars. Yet Facebook bought them for 1.2 billion.

Take another example of Apple buying Beats. Beats was valued at around 1.3 billion and possibly less. Yet Apple bought them for 3 billion. Venture Capitalist and investors are willing to pay top dollar when they know that a stock or even a company will go up 10 to even 100 times its value.

As for Frederick people say we made a mistake. Well on what basis? Right now if Frederick was in the draft most teams including the Cowboys would spend a top 10 pick to acquire him base on his performance now. Thats because they know what their going to get in the future and the ROI is there. The business world including draft picks are based on ROI or future market value on whether its going up or down. Wise investors don't base their decision on what something is worth now.

 

[Eric_Boyer]

I will still and will always say it was a serious reach...

If you buy a car worth 15k dollars for 25k dollars and it runs great and runs for 10 years... you still paid 10k to much for it.

your analogy is ridiculous. we aren't evaluating how long he lasts, we are evaluating how much better he is then other people.

if you buy a car for 25k, and it outperforms cars that cost 10 thousand less, those other people got screwed

 

[CanadianCowboysFan]

I will still and will always say it was a serious reach...

If you buy a car worth 15k dollars for 25k dollars and it runs great and runs for 10 years... you still paid 10k to much for it.

what is 10000 over ten years though, only a grand a year or 100 a month so basically nothing.

 

[tyke1doe]

You are the one talking nonsense because you keep pretending that there was a set value on Frederick.

Before you call me out for nonsense, maybe you might want to consider ALL I said and not just part of what I said. I'm specifically addressing the issue people have raised about spending 25k when you can get something valued at 15k.

 

[tyke1doe]

Not sure whose argument it is that you're straw-manning here. What I find interesting is that you use the term "value" when you clearly intend market price. In fact, in what follows you seamlessly switch terminology, speaking of "price" or "cost". You're clearly conflating cost and value.

You don't know whose argument I'm referring to, then you say I'm straw-manning. Do you understand the obvious contradiction in your statement?
I'm not conflating anything. If something costs 15k and you pay 25k, you've overpaid.
Anyone with any sense would say the same thing. And no one has answer my question of whether you overpay for things worthy of lesser value.
Only on the Internet where people are trying to win arguments do they cleave to ridiculous positions.

I think what you've identified is one of the problems with the car analogy. It falls apart quite early, of course, given that there is no "blue book" one can quote as the authoritative source on the value of a given draft prospect. Instead, teams make draft decisions in conditions of imperfect knowledge of how other teams value their preferred targets. They know what the draftniks think, of course. But since they themselves don't feel any particular compulsion to follow the draftniks' recommendations (they wouldn't be considering a "reach" if they did) they have no reason to believe that other teams are being guided by the draftniks' views.

In such circumstances, the best course is to not worry about how others value your targets (you just can't know) and trust your own evaluation.

I've already address those points. Did you read everything I wrote or did you just happen upon a few comments I made an assumption that I didn't cover the unknown with respect to Frederick?

 

[RS12]

Having said that, I'm glad the Cowboys have invested in the offensive line. That's where the game is won, particularly in this offensive-minded league.

Always has been.

 

[NickZepp]

You don't know whose argument I'm referring to, then you say I'm straw-manning. Do you understand the obvious contradiction in your statement?
I'm not conflating anything. If something costs 15k and you pay 25k, you've overpaid.
Anyone with any sense would say the same thing. And no one has answer my question of whether you overpay for things worthy of lesser value.
Only on the Internet where people are trying to win arguments do they cleave to ridiculous positions.




I've already address those points. Did you read everything I wrote or did you just happen upon a few comments I made an assumption that I didn't cover the unknown with respect to Frederick?

First off draft picks unless they are really high aren't really all that much to pay for in the first place. Particularly with how it's done now. Frederick is probably one of the lowest paid centers in the NFL. At best he'll be middle of the pack.

 

[RS12]

Can we stop with the car references. Bottom line, the guy is the key to running game IMO. It has worked alot better since he showed up.

 

[tyke1doe]

Venture capitalist do it MOST of the time. Rarely do they buy based on whats valued in the present but based their valuation on what they believe it to be in the future. If they have to pay a little more to acquire that - feature, idea, item, person, ertc. - they will and most often do.

Why do I know this? Cause I work for a consulting firm that does work with venture capitalists and they base it base on future valuation and ROI and not on present day market value. The examples I mentioned with Instagram is just one. They weren't even valued at 250 million dollars. Yet Facebook bought them for 1.2 billion.

Take another example of Apple buying Beats. Beats was valued at around 1.3 billion and possibly less. Yet Apple bought them for 3 billion. Venture Capitalist and investors are willing to pay top dollar when they know that a stock or even a company will go up 10 to even 100 times its value.

As for Frederick people say we made a mistake. Well on what basis? Right now if Frederick was in the draft most teams including the Cowboys would spend a top 10 pick to acquire him base on his performance now. Thats because they know what their going to get in the future and the ROI is there. The business world including draft picks are based on ROI or future market value on whether its going up or down. Wise investors don't base their decision on what something is worth now.

Thanks for the response.
Actually, in the Facebook-Instagram acquisition, Facebook wasn't the only bidder for Instagram. Facebook basically established the market for Instagram.
That's a bit different than a particular item having a set price. But, if several investors are bidding for a particular item, then, of course, that items' value will increase.

Second, I should have offered a caveat. Extremely rich people aren't concerned with overpaying for something because losing money doesn't matter as much to them. However, for most people, they don't generally pay more for an item with a set value.

Third, you're focused on ROI. Of course, when you choose stocks or a draft pick, you're expecting a ROI. That goes without saying. The issue, however, is whether you can spend less on your initial investment so you can get more in the future. Why would you spend more on something that costs 15k when you can get it at 10k? You wouldn't ... unless, you're convinced that someone else is eyeing that item and you want it so bad that you'll overpay for it. And teams do that in the draft. But that's why I also said we really don't know who wanted Frederick or whether he would have been available when the Cowboys picked in the second round. So maybe the Cowboys figured someone was going to pick Frederick and overpaid for him. I'm okay with that because I don't know the alternative. He turned out to be a good pick. But that still doesn't negate the point that you don't overpay for a player if the consensus he's not worth a higher pick.

 

[speedkilz88]

Before you call me out for nonsense, maybe you might want to consider ALL I said and not just part of what I said. I'm specifically addressing the issue people have raised about spending 25k when you can get something valued at 15k.

Do you think the analogy is nonsense or not?

 

[tyke1doe]

Do you think the analogy is nonsense or not?

Not at all. Again, read all of my posts then get back to me.

 

[AsthmaField]

Do you think the analogy is nonsense or not?

I know you weren't asking me, but I wrote the below earlier in this thread. I don't think it is a good analogy:
______________________
You are correct in saying that Frederick might could have been picked a little later, but that isn't a good analogy, IMO.

If you buy a car worth 15K, then it will never be worth more than 15K. Ever. At best you end up with a long lasting car that originally was worth 15K. Even at peak performance, it is still a 15K car.

You would need to say that you buy a car that some thought was a Kia worth 15K and you paid 25K... and then everyone realized that it really wasn't a Kia at all, but was instead a BMW that was really worth 100,000K. It would have to be a car that could compete with the best.

Of course, using car value at all as an analogy for players in the NFL draft is ill advised, period.

 

[BAT]

He's been a great pick. I admit.. I was one of the people who hated the pick.

He still has some of the worst feet I've ever seen on a OL but he gets the job done at a high level.

His feet only seem bad in drills, on game day his combo of strength and agility is dominating. His tape on his play was clear to everyone who wanted to see, but too many people were colored by his numbers when he was in t-shirt and shorts. Fred is both the brains and the brute force on this OL. Loved this pick, absolutely loved it.