Will Julius Jones be traded? Espn....

[big dog cowboy]

Julius better have a monster season or he will be playing for someone else in 08'.

I kind of see this happening, and the Cowboys drafting a stud RB while keeping Marion Barber III.

Anyone else agree?

The way RB's have moved around since free agency started, not much would surprise me any more.

 

[InDakWeTrust]

Yikes..guess I better clear this up before somebody gets offended.



It wasn't repeatedly said on ESPN..

It has been repeatedly stated on NFL Network. It's been stated several times there over the time they were doing their Combine Coverage in little blurbs and mentioned a couple of times I remember in that little ticker they run on the bottom of the screen.

So I stand corrected.

And I've only heard it on ESPN like twice this past couple of weeks.

Well, maybe that is repeatedly on ESPN..

..you be the judge.



And while it seems to be a factoid that Dallas was trying to cut bait with JuJo last year, exactly for whom and from what teams, I'm not clear. I don't think that's been verified.

But I believe it.

The thing is, everybody wants healthy RBs and would like to pound the defense with them. But it's pretty hard to do that with a RB that's going to get like 20 or less carries a game.

Which is what JuJo gets when MBIII has to share the snaps with him.

So I think while it may in theory be plausible that giving so many carries to MBIII helps JuJo, I clearly didn't see that for the last 2 seasons.

JuJo can't be counted on to be the feature RB. MBIII actually became the featured RB and it appears, according to 'sources', he's not big enough to take the pounding.

Actually, I think that's all propaganda.

If anybody can't take the pounding, it's clearly JuJo. Not MBIII.

JuJo has continually missed half a season here, half a season there, etc.



I think MBIII can be the featured back, can get 25+ carries a game and last the season and get the same yardage as JuJo got PLUS his TD total.



I think the issue with continuing to keep JuJo in as the starter was to smooth out the notion that BP BLEW ANOTHER TOP DRAFT PICK in taking JuJo 3 years ago instead of taking a top RB.

JMO.

I think like alot of things BP did, it was based on stubborness and adhering to a philosophy that whther it really worked or not, staying with his decision continued to leave the impression that he knows what he's doing instead of what is best for the team.

IMO, the entire last season was devoted to building BP's legacy and I think the whole organization from the owner to the coaches to the players got tired of that whole tired refrain.

MBIII is the better RB. But because starting him ahead of JuJo would tear at BP's ego and supposed knowledge of what he was doing, JuJo was played the majority of the time and in such a way as to last into the 3rd Qt. and then send in MBIII.



In the meantime, JuJo would rarely do anything in the first 3 Qts. and MBIII would have to perform more in less time just to get on the field. But he was awesome when he got in.

Truth is, didn't many of scream last year for MBIII to be the starter and let JuJo come off the bench instead..?

Never happened.

Why..?

BP would not allow anybody to second guess him.

Well..they will be second guessing him soon enough when they ship JuJo and draft another RB in April and give MBIII the starter gig.

We'll see.

:starspin

ReDbaLL ExPreSS

This idea is what I have been preaching to some of my buddies, Julius showed he was ok, but now is a major move that will happen and see all the Chicken Littles come out and play after we trade him.

 

[theebs]

And while it seems to be a factoid that Dallas was trying to cut bait with JuJo last year, exactly for whom and from what teams, I'm not clear. I don't think that's been verified.

was verified on draft day. Norm hitzges had the story all morning, sitting with him were mickey spagnola, george dunham and in and out rick gosselin.

They were trying to trade him specifically to get back into the first round and get maroney. It was more about maroneys abilities as opposed to jones lack of.

 

[dwmyers]

I think MBIII can be the featured back, can get 25+ carries a game and last the season and get the same yardage as JuJo got PLUS his TD total.

All you've proven is that Parcells knows more about the care and feeding of running backs than you do.

The 370 Carry Theory.​

The references below are contemporary studies of what happens to running back that carry the ball 370 times a season or more. They break down, usually due to injuries in the succeeding seasons. 25 x 16 = 400 carries in a season.

I'm in Atlanta so I do have memories of Jamal Anderson and his season of 410 carries for Dan Reeves. I recall what happened early the next season too. Blown ligament. Out for the year. Never the same again.

The last offender of the 370 carry rule (counting the postseason) was Shaun Alexander in 2005. What happened to him in 2006?

There are exceptions here and there, listed in the references below. But it's a sucker's game, assuming anyone can do it year after year.

references:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2004/07/25/ramblings/stat-analysis/236/

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/01/01/ramblings/stat-analysis/4764/

 

[Redball Express]

was verified on draft day. Norm hitzges had the story all morning, sitting with him were mickey spagnola, george dunham and in and out rick gosselin.

They were trying to trade him specifically to get back into the first round and get maroney. It was more about maroneys abilities as opposed to jones lack of.

..I'm talking about from the team itself..

..not the sportwriters who are locked out of VR and unable to talk to anybody in the organization because of their numerous BP gag orders and threats not to talk.

Norm and Mick and Goose are not totally locks for verification, trust me.

Looking for stories and plugging in names to jar something loose.

But you believe your 'sources' and I'll wait for mine.

Not a problem.

:starspin

ReDBaLL ExPreSS

 

[Doomsday]

just speculating he could. Michael Smith was giving an NFL report

That is as far as I had to read, Michael Smith loves to throw out speculation with no inside information to back it up.

 

[Rack]

greatness, those people who propose radical changes make me laugh

Replacing JuJo is no more radical then replacing Rivera at RG or whoever at FS.

 

[percyhoward]

No back running as a starter for Bill Parcells has had a better YPC, unless his name was Joe Morris (or Julius Jones). His productivity was a full standard deviation better than the typical Parcells back.

Julius Jones 2006
first 4 games 4.5 (86 carries)
games 5-8 3.8 (79 carries)
games 9-12 3.2 (59 carries)
games 13-16 4.8 (43 carries)

For me, the issue with Jones isn't his average compared to RB's in history, but the way his average went down as the season wore on. The thing to look at here is how we had to cut JJ's carries in half from the first quarter of the season (86 carries) to the last quarter (43 carries) just to get similar production.

There are other backs in the league of JJ's size or smaller whose production actually goes up over the course of the season. When contract time comes, it will make sense to question whether Julius is the only back who can give us these numbers.

 

[ZeroClub]

The only way I would trade Jones for a 3rd rounder is if we could turn around and trade our 1st and a third to move up and take Peterson. (And I don't see that happening.) I think Jones is going to have a good year this year.

I think nearly everybody here would take THAT deal (and almost none of us see it happening).

But how about if we were talking about Marshall Lynch (instead of Peterson)?

I'd do that deal. Julius Jones + the Cowboys #1 for Marshall Lynch.

Nothing against Jones, but I think the Cowboys could use an upgrade.

 

[burmafrd]

The 370 carry thing is interesting. Makes sense when you think about it. Though maybe some backs could go somewhat higher and other backs could not do that many. I don't think there is a back in the league that could handle 25 carries a game for a whole season (400). As has been shown, if you over work a back one year, you pay for it the next year. Ricky Williams the year after he ran it 400+ carries -he was NOT the same back. BP always said that he regretted running Joe Morris as much as he did- it shortened his career as far as BP was concerned and he swore never to do it again. Of course its not just carries- its total plays including blocking, going out for passes, etc.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Replacing JuJo is no more radical then replacing Rivera at RG or whoever at FS.

no, since RG was a huge problem

and I'm not proposing ugrading FS, because I think in time Watkins will be that upgrade

 

[dwmyers]

Julius Jones 2006
first 4 games 4.5 (86 carries)
games 5-8 3.8 (79 carries)
games 9-12 3.2 (59 carries)
games 13-16 4.8 (43 carries)

For me, the issue with Jones isn't his average compared to RB's in history, but the way his average went down as the season wore on. The thing to look at here is how we had to cut JJ's carries in half from the first quarter of the season (86 carries) to the last quarter (43 carries) just to get similar production.

Two things to note:

(1) Bill James says it's idiotic to attempt to look at a batter's stats unless he has at least 250 attempts. Otherwise, randomness gets in the way. You may be slicing your data too thin for relevence. From my perspective, 4.1 ypc is 4.1 ypc. How many starting Parcells running backs did better?

(2) 86 carries per quarter season are too many carries. See the 370 carry theory above. If you intend to run JJ into the post season, you had to cut his carries down.

86 x 4 = 344 carries. 1-2 postseason games and maybe you don't have a running back the next season.

Therefore, anyone in his right mind (outside of, say, Dan Reeves, who ruined Jamal Anderson) would have cut his carries regardless.

David.

 

[Rack]

Two things to note:

(1) Bill James says it's idiotic to attempt to look at a batter's stats unless he has at least 250 attempts. Otherwise, randomness gets in the way. You may be slicing your data too thin for relevence. From my perspective, 4.1 ypc is 4.1 ypc. How many starting Parcells running backs did better?

(2) 86 carries per quarter season are too many carries. See the 370 carry theory above. If you intend to run JJ into the post season, you had to cut his carries down.

86 x 4 = 344 carries. 1-2 postseason games and maybe you don't have a running back the next season.

Therefore, anyone in his right mind (outside of, say, Dan Reeves, who ruined Jamal Anderson) would have cut his carries regardless.

David.

JuJo's carries were diminished cuz MB3 was outperforming him, not JUST cuz we were saving him.

 

[dwmyers]

JuJo's carries were diminished cuz MB3 was outperforming him, not JUST cuz we were saving him.

Let's examine this assertion. If it were true, then JJ should have had significantly fewer carries than MB3 in 2006 relative to 2005.

in 2005

MB3 138 carries, 538 yards, 3.9 ypc
JJ 257 carries, 993 yards, 3.9 ypc

in 2006

MB3 135 carries, 654 yards, 4.8 ypc
JJ 267 carries, 1084 yards, 4.1 ypc.

How odd! JJ's carries didn't get less. He carried the ball more than he did in 2005! MB3 carried the ball less in 2006 than 2005.

I'm sorry, the facts don't support your assertion. You need to find another whipping boy

David.

 

[4lifecowboy]

JuJo's carries were diminished cuz MB3 was outperforming him, not JUST cuz we were saving him.

I was going to reply to this but I thought about it, Webster's says doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is insanity.

 

[KingintheNorth]

I am completely happy with the Jones/Barber tandem at RB.


If and only if, Jerry Jones believes that Julius Jones' asking price will be too high next off-season then I agree they should trade him. They can pick up a solid back-up for Barber in free agency or in the draft.

 

[Rack]

Let's examine this assertion. If it were true, then JJ should have had significantly fewer carries than MB3 in 2006 relative to 2005.

in 2005

MB3 138 carries, 538 yards, 3.9 ypc
JJ 257 carries, 993 yards, 3.9 ypc

in 2006

MB3 135 carries, 654 yards, 4.8 ypc
JJ 267 carries, 1084 yards, 4.1 ypc.

How odd! JJ's carries didn't get less. He carried the ball more than he did in 2005! MB3 carried the ball less in 2006 than 2005.

I'm sorry, the facts don't support your assertion. You need to find another whipping boy

David.

I didn't say anything about 2005. JuJo was playing injured in 2005 so of course he has less carries. How odd, he played MORE games in 2006 and got MORE carries. Wow, what a freakin' revelation!


The fact is MB3 was more effective then JuJo down the stretch. Go ahead and try to debate that one.

 

[Rack]

I was going to reply to this but I thought about it, Webster's says doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is insanity.

Why would you got a result other then the truth? Websters tells me you just aren't getting it if you want to ask the same thing over and over again.

 

[iceberg]

I didn't say anything about 2005. JuJo was playing injured in 2005 so of course he has less carries. How odd, he played MORE games in 2006 and got MORE carries. Wow, what a freakin' revelation!


The fact is MB3 was more effective then JuJo down the stretch. Go ahead and try to debate that one.

well yea, when you've got jjones driving 80% of the way there and you get inserted for the quick TD...

i don't like running back by committee. barber is a good back but i'm not sure if "every down" can apply to him. i'd rather see us get a dominate back - you know like a stephen jackson - and let barber be spot duty.

 

[Rack]

well yea, when you've got jjones driving 80% of the way there and you get inserted for the quick TD...

i don't like running back by committee. barber is a good back but i'm not sure if "every down" can apply to him. i'd rather see us get a dominate back - you know like a stephen jackson - and let barber be spot duty.

If you were the head coach, who would you play in goalline situations, JuJo or MB3?

I don't care about the players egos. I want the best man for the job in the game for whatever the situation.

And about the "Every down" thing, I'm not so sure JuJo is an every down back. He may be more effective (not necessarily more effective then MB3, but more effective then himself in his current role) in MB3's role except that he doesn't block as well nor catch the ball as well.

I agree about the last part though. That's my #1 preference, to have a better starter and leave MB3 right where he's at. <-- Yes, I ended the sentence with a preposition.