WR In the First Round Is a Horrible Idea

FuzzyLumpkins

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theogt;1436918 said:
Nice attempt at changing the subject.

Yes, Parcells wasn't particularly fond of drafting WRs in the first. Got any evidence that any other GM or scout thinks that way?

Do you honestly think that Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, and Robert Meachem aren't rated as first round draft picks by every single GM and every single scout in the NFL?

You can't possible think that.

So, answer the question. For the 5th time, are all NFL GMs and scouts wrong? Are you the sole voice of reason in the wilderness of idiots?

well i came up with one NFL personell person that doesnt like drafting WR in the first round. the guy is a sure fire HOFer as well. that completely destroys your 'every scout and GM' argument. Its not changing the subject its destroying your argument.

So apparently some NFL people DONT think its a good diea so are you saying Bill Parcells is wrong?
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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smarta5150;1436920 said:
You sound like you are talking in mineshaft.

5 times now :)

Its a silly question because not every GM and scout thinks that sorry. It makes nice emotional appeal unfortunately its unsubstantiated.
 

theogt

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FuzzyLumpkins;1436924 said:
How would you get that?

Economists have dollar signs to work with as well as market values to insert for values. Even issues that at first glance would seem ambiguous like consumer confidence use figures such as consumer spending and savings rates to help determine values.
Apparently you have no idea what economists do. They don't just work with "dollar signs." Economists study a wide range of behavior outside of micro and macro economics.

you cannot say the same for an OT or a CB or a safety. I mean do you set the standard as yardage, points, point differential or do you go reductionist and look at runs to a particualar side or completion percentage against. Or do you look at value compared to a replacement player like they do in baseball.
I'm not quite certain at this point how it would all work out. It would take some trial and error. Like I've said several times, it would be a great deal of work.

I mean the whole reductionist versus wholistic side would be an issue and that is even before you look at specifics. Even if you were to come up with a system i guarantee you more than half of everyone would disagree with it and that is the point.

You state that it negates but in fact it does not. The busts rates do indeed correlate that WR in the first is bad you just say that its not conclusive. There are 'other factors.'
Let me explain this very simply:

Your argument:

Premise: Recievers bust at a higher rate than other positions.

Conclusion: It is a horrible idea to draft receivers in the first round.

My refutation using similar logic:

Premise: Quarterbacks bust at a higher rate than Guards.

Premise: Quarterbacks are much more valuable than Guards.

Conclusion: It is a better idea to draft Quarterbacks than Guards, despite their higher bust rate.

In very simple terms...

Your argument: A, therefore B.

My refutation: A and C, therefore not B.

See how that completely refutes the argument? It doesn't merely mitigate, it completely undermines.

And that is not an appeal to popularity either. Im referring to other arguments without actually restating them. Im not saying that x and y believe this so its true. What i am sying is there is argumnt x stating that WR is more difficult to evaluate than other positions and there is argument YU showing that playoff teams have a relatively low number of first round draft picks as well as my argument but why are there no arguments stating that it is a good idea. That is quite a difference.
No, it's not quite different. Until these other arguments are proven to be true, they're useless. I've disputed every one. At their core, they're just meaningless "analysis" with a hackneyed conclusions, which are simply someone's opinion. You're appealling to opinions, not some irrefutable fact.
 

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FuzzyLumpkins;1436931 said:
well i came up with one NFL personell person that doesnt like drafting WR in the first round. the guy is a sure fire HOFer as well. that completely destroys your 'every scout and GM' argument. Its not changing the subject its destroying your argument.

So apparently some NFL people DONT think its a good diea so are you saying Bill Parcells is wrong?
No, I'm not saying Bill Parcells, who is not a currently an NFL GM or scout, is wrong. You have already forgotten that I'm not claiming to know whether it's a good idea or a bad idea.

So, are you going to answer the question?

For the 6th time, is every NFL GM and scout wrong?
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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theogt;1436947 said:
No, I'm not saying Bill Parcells, who is not a currently an NFL GM or scout, is wrong. You have already forgotten that I'm not claiming to know whether it's a good idea or a bad idea.

So, are you going to answer the question?

For the 6th time, is every NFL GM and scout wrong?

Now your just being obtuse. Bill Parcells was very influential in a particular franchise's personnell for the four years prior to this one. Bill Parcells has his fingerprints all over this league. he has coaches that he taught in multiple franchises and is widely sought after for his advice by other NFL people. Saying that all GMs, coaches and scouts think its a good idea is just plain old bull****.

So in shor tthere is no right answer to that question because they dont all think the same thing.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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theogt;1436944 said:
Apparently you have no idea what economists do. They don't just work with "dollar signs." Economists study a wide range of behavior outside of micro and macro economics.

Give examples. The you dont know what youre talking about thing is really old. I give examples and you hide behind that crap. Give an example of an economic forecasting model that does not use monetary values predominantly. Otherwise your point is worthless. Again SOMETHING >>> NOTHING.

I'm not quite certain at this point how it would all work out. It would take some trial and error. Like I've said several times, it would be a great deal of work.

Obviously you dont know how it would work out and you also dont address the issue at hand. There can be no concensus on this and you also dont know that it would work. The simple model leads to a simple conclusion. Your model becomes muddled beyond comprehension.

Let me explain this very simply:

Your argument:

Premise: Recievers bust at a higher rate than other positions.

Conclusion: It is a horrible idea to draft receivers in the first round.

My refutation using similar logic:

Premise: Quarterbacks bust at a higher rate than Guards.

Premise: Quarterbacks are much more valuable than Guards.

Conclusion: It is a better idea to draft Quarterbacks than Guards, despite their higher bust rate.

In very simple terms...

Your argument: A, therefore B.

My refutation: A and C, therefore not B.

See how that completely refutes the argument? It doesn't merely mitigate, it completely undermines.

Dont deign to present my argument for me. You completely missed the boat. did you ever stop and wonder why OT and DE were selected for the comparison? Its because both are equal or greater needs than WR for our team.

Additionally you also simply ignored that WR are not as important to a team as OT and DE/tweener are. We have seen first hand how losing Ellis and losing Adams was, however in losing Glenn in 2004 we didnt see nearly the impact. The reason for that is simple: WR lose signifignace in the run game.

chossing the most impactful position and comparing it to one of the least is not very cogent to the discussion at hand.

If a WR, DE, or OT are there, we should NOT pick the WR.,

it's not quite different. Until these other arguments are proven to be true, they're useless. I've disputed every one. At their core, they're just meaningless "analysis" with a hackneyed conclusions, which are simply someone's opinion. You're appealling to opinions, not some irrefutable fact.

Now youre fumbling about. Its quite different to the appeal to popularity fallacy was what i said but nice try to make sesne even if you failed.

Do you argue these points?:

1) WR, outside of QB has the highest bust rate in the first round.
2) 3/4 of the starting WR of playoff teams last year were selected after the first round.
3) WR has less impact than OT and DE.
4) Outside of QB, WR is the most difficult position to evaluate.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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Bob Sacamano;1436974 said:
Fuzzy, just explain why WRs have a higher average of being taken in the 1st round than OTs

why do i need to? again your doing the appealing to popularity thing. really thats quite trite at this point.
 

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FuzzyLumpkins;1436991 said:
why do i need to? again your doing the appealing to popularity thing. really thats quite trite at this point.

taking CBs, WRs, QBs, OTs, DEs and DTs, and now OLBs are a popular thing fuzzy

I want to know why on average, 4 WRs are taken in the 1st round, as opposed to only 2 OTs? don't you think that it speaks to teams thinking OT is a more riskier position to draft?
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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Bob Sacamano;1436992 said:
don't live w/ my mom, sorry kid, we're not all like you

then ill post that pm when you were talking about when i came over for dinner you were going to do something with a beer bottle i believe is what you were threatening me with.
 

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FuzzyLumpkins;1436994 said:
then ill post that pm when you were talking about when i came over for dinner you were going to do something with a beer bottle i believe is what you were threatening me with.

you shouldn't have said anything about my mom then

insulting your imaginary gf isn't the same thing as that
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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Bob Sacamano;1436996 said:
post it then, don't talk about it

I don't live w/ my parents, I'm sorry if my parents invite me over for dinner while your's totally disowned you

kk you asked for it.

Originally Posted by FuzzyLumpkins
btw your mother and i have been talking and what do you think about calling me stepdad?

Originally Posted by Bob Sacamano
I'd ******** you w/ a broken beer bottle

can't wait till she invites you over for dinner

that ws right before you degraded Rack. Nice how you talk about people behin=d there back btw.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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Bob Sacamano;1436996 said:
you shouldn't have said anything about my mom then

insulting your imaginary gf isn't the same thing as that

im not discussing my personal life with you summer. youre a child about so many things. i have nothing i need to prove least of all to you. whatd mom cook for dinner for you guys tonight btw?
 
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