Your wrong here too. The draft is a crap shoot no argument there but history show quite clearly that QB's taken in the 1st round have a much higher success rate in the NFL than QB's taken in later rounds, it also shows that QB's taken #1 overall have the highest sucess rate of all QB's taken
Let's take a look and see who's on the wrong end here......
2018:
Mayfield and Darnold were top 5 picks. Thus far the best quarterback in the draft has been Lamar Jackson who was a late 1st rounder when the Ravens traded up for him.
2017:
Mitch Tribusky was taken with the 2nd overall pick in the draft:
Mahomes and Watson have been by far superior to him and they were taken I believe 10th and 11th respectively.
2016: My favorite. Jared Goff......best quarterback prospect in the draft. Carson Wentz was considered the 2nd. Now I'm not going to argue Dak is better even though I think he is. Let's just say Dak has been just as good if not better than those guys. Jacoby Brissett is another honorable mention. Hasn't been better than the other 3 but he's faired well thus far for a young quarterback and having to learn two different systems.
2015: Winston and Mariotta.......I guess there's a argument to be made here that Winston is by default the best quarterback in this draft. This has turned out to simply be a terrible draft altogether. Trevor Simien was a 7th round pick....and for arguments sake I wonder how many GM's would rather have Brandon Sheriff/Trevor Simien or if they'd take Marcus Mariotat or Jameis Winston. Either way....I'd say the best prospect this year was Winston but I don't think I want any of them.
2014....Blake Bortles was the top QB picked here........hard to screw this draft up....so many big time players in it but Jags managed to do it.
Teddy Bridgewater, Jimmy Garapolo, Derek Carr....you would've done right by getting any of these guys later on.
So out of all these years....the only favorable one is Winston in 2015 and he has sucked. This wouldn't cause to run away from the 1st overall pick....but it would cause me to think twice before taking one over a guy I know can come right in and be a potential All PRo.