Paxton Lynch Plays Today at 11 am

[Manwiththeplan]

Correct, he is playing mostly with walk ons.

I don't know much about Memphis, but I doubt he's playing with more than a few walk ons, if any. They do not have the talent to compete with Auburn, but let's not over exaggerate, it's still a division 1A team.

 

[IAmLegend]

 

[Dhragon]

The leap from top college ball to the NFL is a gigantic one. I don't want to risk a top5 pick on someone who MIGHT make that leap.

What's the alternative though? A roughly 40-50% success rate for QB drafted in 1st round is at least a realistic chance. Drafting one later plummets that number to around 20% in 2nd and 5% in subsequent rounds.

Really good QBs rarely make it to free agency, so it's unlikely you can find one there.

The QB is the most important piece in the NFL puzzle. You have to have quality at that position. Drafting a QB in the first round is the best shot any team has to get their QB.

 

[RS12]

I have to believe JJ will get a vet backup regardless of whether they draft a QB. That would mean having 3 QB's on the 53, but that's the price you have to pay. No way do I think they would draft a player and use him as the primary backup.

The hints Jerry has dropping definitely sounds like they are drafting a QB. Question is what round.

 

[IAmLegend]

I'll still take Lynch's last 25 games as a sample size over one bowl game in which not a single player on offense had a good game, sans their LT who held his own. He's better than he showed today and there's plenty of tape to prove that. And as I stated before, his Pro-Day and Combine will have more of an impact on where he's drafted than this game will. If he performs well at those, he'll likely still be a Top 15 pick.

 

[RS12]

What's the alternative though? A roughly 40-50% success rate for QB drafted in 1st round is at least a realistic chance. Drafting one later plummets that number to around 20% in 2nd and 5% in subsequent rounds.

Really good QBs rarely make it to free agency, so it's unlikely you can find one there.

The QB is the most important piece in the NFL puzzle. You have to have quality at that position. Drafting a QB in the first round is the best shot any team has to get their QB.

Could not have said it better, particularly with regards to odds of success where drafted.

 

[tm1119]

Jamarcus Russell.

David Carr.

Just two quick ones off the top of my head............... guys drafted high with great raw talent.

Lynch is easily the scariest prospect in the Top 10. High reward but massive amounts of risk. Any time "the best QB prospect" in the draft needs to refine his footwork and mechanics, that should send up red flags left and right.

And who exactly are all of these QB's that are coming out of college that are finished products? I'm not arguing with you on Goff being the more NFL ready QB right now, but you're talking about needing to fix mechanics like it's some thing rookie QB's never go through. Very few young QB's coming into this league are ready to play right away with no adjustments.

 

[LandryFan]

The hints Jerry has dropping definitely sounds like they are drafting a QB. Question is what round.

I said in an earlier post somewhere that I think they pull the trigger on one with their first pick IF they deem one of them worth the pick and he's sitting there to be taken...in other words, I think JJ is willing if the player matches the board. The thing is, of course, none of us know/will know how the team feels about any of the prospects until they draft/don't draft them come draft day. If I had to bet, I'd say for sure that one will be drafted in the first three rounds, if not the first round. All just my amateur opinion, of course.

 

[Sydla]

What's the alternative though? A roughly 40-50% success rate for QB drafted in 1st round is at least a realistic chance. Drafting one later plummets that number to around 20% in 2nd and 5% in subsequent rounds.

Really good QBs rarely make it to free agency, so it's unlikely you can find one there.

The QB is the most important piece in the NFL puzzle. You have to have quality at that position. Drafting a QB in the first round is the best shot any team has to get their QB.

Just to add some numbers to this............. in the last 10 drafts (Not including the 2015 one since Winston and Mariota were rookies), 27 QBs have been taken in the first round.

10 success hit - Rodgers, A. Smith, Cutler, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Newton, Luck, Bortles, Bridgewater.

17 non success hits - J. Campbell, V. Young, Lienart, Russell, Quinn, Sanchez, Freeman, Bradford, Tebow, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, RG3, Tannehill, Weeden, Manuel, Manziel.

Now one could argue someone like Tannehill should be considered a draft hit but you could then also argue that a guy like Cutler shouldn't be considered a draft hit.

 

[IAmLegend]

 

[IAmLegend]

 

[Sydla]

And who exactly are all of these QB's that are coming out of college that are finished products? I'm not arguing with you on Goff being the more NFL ready QB right now, but you're talking about needing to fix mechanics like it's some thing rookie QB's never go through. Very few young QB's coming into this league are ready to play right away with no adjustments.

I am not arguing pro-Goff or pro-Lynch.

And some rookie QBs come into the league with far more polish than others. Sure, they might need a tweak here or there. But when a guy advocates that Lynch is clearly the best prospect and then states he needs a lot of work on not only his mechanics but his footwork, that just raises a flag to me. If the Cowboys scout this kid and he's the best player on the board at their pick, take him. I've always advocated for BPA.

Personally, though, I've always been weary of guys who shoot up draft boards their last year and you hear things like how talented they are but they are raw and need work. That scares me.

 

[mattjames2010]

If only Lynch got to play Air Force and had something other than actual trash on offense.

It's college, trash is going up against trash. This isn't the NFL.

If a QB can't elevate a team in college, he won't do it in the NFL.

 

[cej757]

Goff would be the better pick with this coaching staff. Lynch would be a absolute nightmare trying to learn from Wade Wilson.

 

[Bigdog]

Seriously. Peyton Manning/Ryan Leaf is a closer comparison (although I don't think Lynch is on Leaf's trajectory)

Ryan Leaf had more tools and the stronger arm and a better QB rating in college.

Yes but Leaf had a ten cent brain. When the colts asked both Leaf and Manning what they would do after they were drafted, Manning replied " Get the playbook so I can learn this offense." Leaf replied "Get a couple of my friends and go to Hawaii." That is all you need to know about Leaf.
What would be a dream would be to trade back and get some extra draft pick; maybe 2017 1st (Texans maybe). Keep that 2017 1st but some of the extra picks to move back at the end of the 1st to grab Wentz. Hopefully that 2017 is a high draft pick so we can draft Fourante, RB from LSU. That would be a dream scenario.

 

[kevm3]

I wouldn't be surprised if Lynch stayed in a year after that performance.

 

[Dhragon]

Just to add some numbers to this............. in the last 10 drafts (Not including the 2015 one since Winston and Mariota were rookies), 27 QBs have been taken in the first round.

10 success hit - Rodgers, A. Smith, Cutler, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Newton, Luck, Bortles, Bridgewater.

17 non success hits - J. Campbell, V. Young, Lienart, Russell, Quinn, Sanchez, Freeman, Bradford, Tebow, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, RG3, Tannehill, Weeden, Manuel, Manziel.

Now one could argue someone like Tannehill should be considered a draft hit but you could then also argue that a guy like Cutler shouldn't be considered a draft hit.

I'll repost something I did in another thread here:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position

With the talk about drafting a QB in the first round vs later on, I was curious about the odds of drafting a decent QB in various rounds. Using the above linked reference, I looked at the last 20 years of QBs drafted and tried to determine IMO which QBs were Decent and which were Elite and the % of those in each round drafted. I only used drafted QBs not FA so Romo and Kurt Warner could be added to this to argue for drafting lower.

Now, opinions vary, and some QBs I think were decent others might not or vice versa. But here's my analysis:

1st round draft picks (QBs)
Total = 50
Decent/Elite = 22 ( 44.0% )
Elite Only = 11 ( 22.0% )

2nd round draft picks
Total = 24
Decent/Elite = 5 ( 20.8% )
Elite Only = 1 ( 4.2% )

3rd round draft picks
Total = 24
Decent/Elite = 2 ( 8.3% )
Elite Only = 1 ( 4.2% )

4thd round draft picks
Total = 28
Decent/Elite = 2 ( 7.1% )
Elite Only = 0 ( 0.0% )

5th round draft picks
Total = 30
Decent/Elite = 0 ( 0.0% )
Elite Only = 0 ( 0.0% )

6th round draft picks
Total = 41
Decent/Elite = 4 ( 9.8% )
Elite Only = 1 ( 2.4% )

7th round draft picks
Total = 41
Decent/Elite = 0 ( 0.0% )
Elite Only = 0 ( 0.0% )

Elites = McNair, Manning, P., McNabb (I know he choked a lot but still), Brady, Vick (for his first few years at any rate), Brees, Palmer, Manning, E. (He has 2 rings so I put him here but debatable), Rivers, Rothlisberger, Rodgers, Newton, Wilson, and Luck (still has a lot to prove though-based on potential)

Decents = Collins, Stewart, Johnson,Plummer, Hasselbeck, Culpepper, Pennington, Bulger, Schaub, Alex Smith, Cutler, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Dalton, Taylor (gave him benefit of the doubt, will probably suck), Tannehill, Cousins, Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr.

Like I said opinions will differ on these, but it does show some trends.

If you want to get a decent QB, 1st round is your best bet by far. If not then, you at least have a shooters chance in the 2nd round. All other rounds and you have to win the lottery. To get an elite QB, your only realistic shot is the first round. Otherwise you will undoubtfully fail unless you are EXTREMELY lucky.

If we got a shot at drafting a first round talent at QB, we have to try IMO. I don't like the odds if we try and get cute.

 

[cej757]

I am not arguing pro-Goff or pro-Lynch.

And some rookie QBs come into the league with far more polish than others. Sure, they might need a tweak here or there. But when a guy advocates that Lynch is clearly the best prospect and then states he needs a lot of work on not only his mechanics but his footwork, that just raises a flag to me. If the Cowboys scout this kid and he's the best player on the board at their pick, take him. I've always advocated for BPA.

Personally, though, I've always been weary of guys who shoot up draft boards their last year and you hear things like how talented they are but they are raw and need work. That scares me.

I remember Dontari Poe being talked up like that before the draft and he had a great combine and he turned out to be a perennial All Pro.

 

[sbark]

It's college, trash is going up against trash. This isn't the NFL.

If a QB can't elevate a team in college, he won't do it in the NFL.

Yup, and this is a Auburn team that was taken to OT by FCS level Jacksonville St who plays NDSU in the FCS Champ game next weekend........ya I know I know, but this isn't a good auburn team historically by any measure..............and I'll add NDSU dismantles Jacksonville if history hold form, will be interesting if NDSU's coach goes to Wentz after the redshirt freshman wins 8 straight on the road to a 5th straight Champ game..........

 

[reddyuta]

I don't know much about Memphis, but I doubt he's playing with more than a few walk ons, if any. They do not have the talent to compete with Auburn, but let's not over exaggerate, it's still a division 1A team.

http://www.commercialappeal.com/spo...92-a3e0-46f5-e053-0100007fb7a3-334879181.html