Romo and "Roughing the Passer" 2006-15

[rynochop]

So, you think Romo's low number of RTP calls overall is a "real story," but his zero RTP calls in the 4th quarter over 8+ seasons is no story at all.

Because statistics.

I'm curious as to what that poster would consider a sufficient sample size if almost 10 years isn't enough.

Between the 8 minute 47 second mark to the 5 minute 11 second mark of the 4th quarter, Tonys been getting screwed on RTP calls, then I could see the argument.

 

[percyhoward]

I'm curious as to what that poster would consider a sufficient sample size if almost 10 years isn't enough.

1,662 4th-qtr pass attempts is the equivalent of 49 games, or more than three full seasons without a call.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

x

 

[fifaguy]

Every year we've been talking about this on the boards. Great to see some actual stats that prove we were right. Pretty sickening... And not going to change at this point either.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

1,662 4th-qtr pass attempts is the equivalent of 49 games, or more than three full seasons without a call.

The figure you should be looking at is the number of actual RTPs that have been called for Romo AND how those calls have been distributed (i.e. various quarters/halves of the game).

I'm willing to listen if you can demonstrate why 2nd half RTPs are somehow worth more than 1st half RTPs.

All "1,662 4th qtr pass attempts [...] without a call" gets you is interesting, but empty speculation, unless of course you have documented time stamps of specific plays where you think an RTP should have been called. Even then, you're simply arguing a subjective call on the field. You'd also have to demonstrate that when these specific "missed calls" weren't made, that they were indeed during close games or at critical times.

I'm in full agreement that Romo, overall, seemingly hasn't received his fare share of RTP. That's based on the dearth of RTPs he's actually recieved in contrast to the large sample size of opportunities (i.e. pass plays) to draw inference from. Basic statistical analysis....the larger the sample size the more reliable the inference.

You're trying to draw inference from the distribution (i.e. at what point in the game they've been called) of the actual RTPs he's received. The total number of pass attempts have no relationship with that kind of analysis.

 

[Idgit]

Jesus guys. How about you do a bit of your own crunching instead of asking Percy to tabulate the data for your shot-from-the-hip theories? He's not telling you what to think about anything. He's giving us measurements and letting us draw what conclusions we can from them.

If you can't see how late in the game penalties might be a significant subset of the data to consider, I don't know what to tell you. But the numbers are the numbers. He gets fewer RTP calls than most comparable passers by an order of magnitude, and he gets them at an even lower rate at times in the game when they're more likely to occur. It's not a conspiracy to understand what's going on and to want to take steps to see it change.

For a group of guys who spends so much time complaining about losses in win-or-go-home games for Dallas in the Romo era, you'd think you'd be more concerned about an anomaly like this.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

Jesus guys. How about you do a bit of your own crunching instead of asking Percy to tabulate the data for your shot-from-the-hip theories? He's not telling you what to think about anything. He's giving us measurements and letting us draw what conclusions we can from them.

If you can't see how late in the game penalties might be a significant subset of the data to consider, I don't know what to tell you. But the numbers are the numbers. He gets fewer RTP calls than most comparable passers by an order of magnitude, and he gets them at an even lower rate at times in the game when they're more likely to occur. It's not a conspiracy to understand what's going on and to want to take steps to see it change.

For a group of guys who spends so much time complaining about losses in win-or-go-home games for Dallas in the Romo era, you'd think you'd be more concerned about an anomaly like this.

Who's asking him to tabulate more data?

 

[Idgit]

Who's asking him to tabulate more data?

This is one of the lines I was referring to:

"I'm willing to listen if you can demonstrate why 2nd half RTPs are somehow worth more than 1st half RTPs."

 

[LittleLexodus]

Pretty surprising data. This just confirms my thoughts on the anti-Cowboys reffing bias that has driven me crazy the past 7-8 years

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

This is one of the lines I was referring to:

"I'm willing to listen if you can demonstrate why 2nd half RTPs are somehow worth more than 1st half RTPs."

That has nothing to do with crunching numbers.

It's asking him describe/explain/demonstrate why 2nd half RTPs are somehow worth more than 1st half RTPs.

 

[rynochop]

That has nothing to do with crunching numbers.

It's asking him describe/explain/demonstrate why 2nd half RTPs are somehow worth more than 1st half RTPs.

So a RTP call in a tie game in the 1st quarter is equal to a RTP call in a tie game in the 4th quarter?
Maybe you could explain why they're equal

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

So a RTP call in a tie game in the 1st quarter is equal to a RTP call in a tie game in the 4th quarter?
Maybe you could explain why they're equal

Good, you understand the importance of context, so let me take you the rest of the way.

Are you claiming that was the situation (or something similar) when an RTP call should have been made? Again, pointing out Romo didn't get any 4th QTR RTPs sounds interesting only until you're asked to start providing specifics (i.e. specific plays, situations, down-and-distance, etc.). It amounts to arguing from silence (i.e. why does't Romo have any RTPs called in the 4th QTR...) and taking liberty assuming it's saying something.

Also, how do you account for a scenario where Romo got an RTP called in the first half which helped to extend a drive that lead to a score that eventually was the difference in the game?

 

[percyhoward]

It's asking him describe/explain/demonstrate why 2nd half RTPs are somehow worth more than 1st half RTPs.

I'm just pointing out that one half is distinguishable from another, and highlighting the huge discrepancy in Romo's case. That doesn't make one half "worth more" than another, although it's interesting (to me, at least) that Romo's better half (and best quarter) is when he gets the least calls.

 

[rynochop]

Good, you understand the importance of context, so let me take you the rest of the way.

Are you claiming that was the situation (or something similar) when an RTP call should have been made? Again, pointing out Romo didn't get any 4th QTR RTPs sounds interesting only until you're asked to start providing specifics (i.e. specific plays, situations, down-and-distance, etc.). You're arguing from silence (i.e. why does't Romo have any RTPs called in the 4th QTR) and taking liberty assuming it's saying something.

Also, how do you account for a scenario where Romo got an RTP called in the first half which helped to extend a drive that lead to a score that eventually was the difference in the game?

Theres a million scenarios and situations where an RTP call is more beneficial or meaningless. If I'm guaranteed an RTP Call, I'm and everyone else is taking it in the 4th quarter

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

Theres a million scenarios and situations where an RTP call is more beneficial or meaningless. If I'm guaranteed an RTP Call, I'm and everyone else is taking it in the 4th quarter

And you would only say that because you're simply assuming 4th QTR = close or tight ball game.

It doesn't.

And if it doesn't, it means parsing the statistics to look at the distribution of RTP calls made at specific periods of time (i.e. first/second half, 4th QTR, etc.) is pointless without specifics/context.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

I'm just pointing out that one half is distinguishable from another, and highlighting the huge discrepancy in Romo's case. That doesn't make one half "worth more" than another, although it's interesting (to me, at least) that Romo's better half (and best quarter) is when he gets the least calls.

Fair enough.

 

[percyhoward]

If Romo were receiving the benefit of the call at a rate much, much higher than the league average in the 1st half, so that his 2nd-half number stayed the same and his overall number were the league average, there would still be the issue of his only getting the call once in the 2nd half since 2007.

And for me, that doesn't stop being an issue simply because his first half number is below the league average. There's no connection there.

 

[rynochop]

And you would only say that because you're simply assuming 4th QTR = close or tight ball game.

It doesn't.

And if it doesn't, it means parsing the statistics to look at the distribution of RTP calls made at specific periods of time (i.e. first/second half, 4th QTR, etc.) is pointless without specifics/context.

Well yeah, it could be a blowout either way, or there could be a fumble the next play. I'm saying, if I'm guaranteed a rtp call prior to the game I want it in the 4th quarter.

 

[CanadianCowboysFan]

1,662 4th-qtr pass attempts is the equivalent of 49 games, or more than three full seasons without a call.

I mentioned that to a hater and his response was typical, other teams don't have to rush Romo in the 2nd half, just have to wait for a pick six

 

[JDSmith]

I mentioned that to a hater and his response was typical, other teams don't have to rush Romo in the 2nd half, just have to wait for a pick six

Do you teach special ed? If not, you don't need to talk to people who are mentally challenged - so don't.