One oddsmaker has Jason Garrett as ninth-most likely to be first head coach fired

[aria]

Andy Reid, Peyton and Tomlin have made mistakes but also coached teams to SB appearances and generally had more success than Garrett. Two have won SBs and Reid has taken teams to multiple conference title games. That's why they generally get praised and mistakes get overlooked. Shoot, Belichick has made mistakes too.

True but do you think JG would be getting a pass even if he took us to more playoff games but never won any (ie Reid)? I really don’t think most fans would, they would say they need someone who can get it done on the big stage. Do you think Peyton or Tomlin would have won that many more games with the bad defenses the FO gave JG? Do you think any of them would have won in week 17 against a divison rival with Kitna or Orton as their starting QB? Maybe but doubtful. Do you think any of them could overcome the horrible game Romo had against the Commanders?

I get what you’re saying but a) I think Reid is a moron b) Tomlin isn’t far behind Reid and has been carried by Ben AND a great defense most years which JG never had c) Peyton could have done much more with the talent he’s had. I don’t think there’s as many elite coaches in this league as people believe. A lot of it comes down to the personnel, a few good or bad calls and a few turnovers. Like you said, everyone makes mistaks but some get a free pass. If Dez “caught” the ball and somehow we still won then went on to win the SB I bet most people here still would want JG fired.

 

[Sydla]

True but do you think JG would be getting a pass even if he took us to more playoff games but never won any (ie Reid)? I really don’t think most fans would, they would say they need someone who can get it done on the big stage. Do you think Peyton or Tomlin would have won that many more games with the bad defenses the FO gave JG? Do you think any of them would have won in week 17 against a divison rival with Kitna or Orton as their starting QB? Maybe but doubtful. Do you think any of them could overcome the horrible game Eomo had against the Commanders?

I get what you’re saying but a) I think Reid is a moron b) Tomlin isn’t far behind Reid and has been carried by Ben AND a great defense most years which JG never had c) Peyton could have done much more with the talent he’s had. I don’t think there’s as many elite coahes in this league as people believe. A lot of it comes down to the personnel, a few good or bad calls and a few turnovers. Like you said, everyone makes mistaks but they get a free pass. If Dez “caught” the ball and somehow we still won then went on to win the SB I bet most people here still would want him fired.

If Jason Garrett had won a SB and coached in another in his first 7 years on the job like Tomlin had, yeah, I suspect people would be much easier on him. And yeah, I think if Garrett had coached in 4 NFC title games and SB in his 7 years here, I think he'd get less criticism and certainly arguments claiming he's an average coach wouldn't have a ton of merit at that point.

I think it's convenient to basically call Reid and Tomlin morons in order to prop up Garrett. The reality is those two have had actual success and Garrett has not. And to try to minimize what they have accomplished by saying they had this or that and essentially got lucky where Garrett has not is an argument I just can't get behind. It makes no logical sense to me. It also tells me people are getting desperate in their defenses of Garrett when they have to resort to trying to cut off successful coaches at the knees to make Garrett look better than he's really been.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I believe I specifically mentioned how bad the defenses were which the FO is responsible for which made it hard for Romo but also for the coaches.

I understand Romo had a very big role in getting us into those playoff situations, it would be dumb not to recognize that, but those who say the coaches “wasted his career” is nonsense. He was just as responsible for wasting his own career. One of, if not the biggest, part of his legacy will be he couldn’t get it done in big games. There were some he had a legitmate shot (ie GB and NY) but I don’t think any of those came down to bad coaching or Romo, we just got out played as a team.

Back to JG though, just look at the stuff he had to deal with, I think a lot of people forget that. 3 years in a row he had a chance to get us in the playoffs with a W in the last game of the season. 2 of those was with a backup QB (only lost by 2 in one of them) and the other Romo completely blew on his own.

Without Romo, Garrett would have averaged 4 wins a year and been fired long ago. Romo had some bad moments, but he was saddled with a bad GM and horrid coaching his entire career. Nothing he can do about that. Romo had a good shot when we went 13-3 and Garrett blew it with his team preparation and clock management at the end of the game with GB. Garrett did it again with Dak 2 years ago.

 

[CowboyRoy]

If Jason Garrett had won a SB and coached in another in his first 7 years on the job like Tomlin had, yeah, I suspect people would be much easier on him. And yeah, I think if Garrett had coached in 4 NFC title games and SB in his 7 years here, I think he'd get less criticism and certainly arguments claiming he's an average coach wouldn't have a ton of merit at that point.

I think it's convenient to basically call Reid and Tomlin morons in order to prop up Garrett. The reality is those two have had actual success and Garrett has not. And to try to minimize what they have accomplished by saying they had this or that and essentially got lucky where Garrett has not is an argument I just can't get behind. It makes no logical sense to me. It also tells me people are getting desperate in their defenses of Garrett when they have to resort to trying to cut off successful coaches at the knees to make Garrett look better than he's really been.

LOL.....Reid and Tomlin compared to the horrid Garrett? Some fans will say anything no matter how silly it sounds.

 

[Sydla]

LOL.....Reid and Tomlin compared to the horrid Garrett? Some fans will say anything no matter how silly it sounds.

I don't think he's necessarily comparing Garrett to Tomlin and Reid.

The issue is that guys like Tomlin and Reid and Belichick and others who have been successful have set a standard that fans want for their own teams. And when that team and coach fail to meet or come close to those thresholds, some choose to try to cut some of those successful coaches off at the knees in order to make their coach look better than he really is.

It's a method of defending a coach I can't really get behind because at it's core, it seems to be based on the argument that Coach A and B were just lucky and our coach, well, he's just unlucky.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Well, every year is different, you would think that sooner or later we's be due better teams, but that remains to be seen.

We're stuck with Dak for now, he's too cheap to bring in a veteran, even if one was available, and since he's got two years with the team, to start over again with Rush or the rookie would regress the team, which Jerry isn't willing do do imo.

Defense? At this point the defense doesn't appear to be top notch, but with so many new and young guys I wouldn't put it past the realm of possibility that the defense could be pretty good.

And I don't think many fans are expecting Garrett to be a difference maker, only that he's not that bad of a coach (debatable) and isn't the progress stopper many think he is.

I can understand their expectations, though at this point I don't share them, but I'd have to see how things shake out after pre-season, at the least, and maybe a quarter of the regular season before I'd have any firm expectations...

22-10 in his first two years. Dual threat great young talent. Leadership and poise beyond his years. Rookie of the year and MVP candidate his first year.

Ill be stuck like that for the next 10 years thank you. Dak will only be getting better.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I don't think he's necessarily comparing Garrett to Tomlin and Reid.

The issue is that guys like Tomlin and Reid and Belichick and others who have been successful have set a standard that fans want for their own teams. And when that team and coach fail to meet or come close to those thresholds, some choose to try to cut some of those successful coaches off at the knees in order to make their coach look better than he really is.

It's a method of defending a coach I can't really get behind because at it's core, it seems to be based on the argument that Coach A and B were just lucky and our coach, well, he's just unlucky.

Yep.........even Jerry has watched Garrett bumble the first 8 years and talked about it publicly. And Jerry is clearly his biggest fan.

 

[aria]

If Jason Garrett had won a SB and coached in another in his first 7 years on the job like Tomlin had, yeah, I suspect people would be much easier on him. And yeah, I think if Garrett had coached in 4 NFC title games and SB in his 7 years here, I think he'd get less criticism and certainly arguments claiming he's an average coach wouldn't have a ton of merit at that point.

I think it's convenient to basically call Reid and Tomlin morons in order to prop up Garrett. The reality is those two have had actual success and Garrett has not. And to try to minimize what they have accomplished by saying they had this or that and essentially got lucky where Garrett has not is an argument I just can't get behind. It makes no logical sense to me. It also tells me people are getting desperate in their defenses of Garrett when they have to resort to trying to cut off successful coaches at the knees to make Garrett look better than he's really been.

Let me ask you this...does it make logical sense to you that Romo “carried” JG? Because that’s all I ever hear. If they, and possibly you, can say that about JG and Romo why can’t I say it about other coaches regardless of their accomplishments?

 

[Sydla]

Let me ask you this...does it make logical sense to you that Romo “carried” JG? Because that’s all I ever hear. If they, and possibly you, can say that about JG and Romo why can’t I say it about other coaches regardless of their accomplishments?

I don't know about "carried" JG but I do think Garrett had the little success he did have largely because he was handed a competent QB when he took over full time as HC. It's common sense. Would Garrett have been able to go 8-8 his first full three years if he had Weeden as his QB? Of course not. Note, that's not me saying Garrett did nothing. I don't think he's an awful coach, I just don't believe he's a very good one.

Using your examples, most certainly Tomlin and Reid benefitted as well from having good QBs. Tomlin isn't winning a SB with a bum at QB and Reid isn't in four straight NFC Title games with a dud at QB. But at some point, just having a good QB isn't enough. You have to be a competent coach to get where guys like Tomlin, Reid, etc. have gotten. I don't think Reid or Tomlin are elite, the best of the best, but both are very good coaches and certainly better coaches than Garrett.

 

[aria]

I don't think he's necessarily comparing Garrett to Tomlin and Reid.

The issue is that guys like Tomlin and Reid and Belichick and others who have been successful have set a standard that fans want for their own teams. And when that team and coach fail to meet or come close to those thresholds, some choose to try to cut some of those successful coaches off at the knees in order to make their coach look better than he really is.

It's a method of defending a coach I can't really get behind because at it's core, it seems to be based on the argument that Coach A and B were just lucky and our coach, well, he's just unlucky.

My only comparison to the two so far has been they all make mistakes which no one has denied. I have standards too, I wanted to see the Cowboys make the playoffs but I also understand what the circumstances were and think it would be hard for any coach to overcome those same obstacles. I’ve also seen JG take a rookie QB and RB to within a few seconds of beating one of the best QB’s to ever play the game and a highly regarded coach in the playoffs.

As I’ve said for several months now if we don’t make the playoffs and barring any major personnel setbacks then I’ll be fine with them firing him but I can’t get on board with it yet. I don’t care what Tomlin, Reid, Peyton, etc have done so far, I don’t think the results would have been much different, if at all, if they were coaching the past 6-7 years.

 

[LatinMind]

Opening odds to be the first NFL head coach fired (@betway):

Hue Jackson +350
Adam Gase +750
Marvin Lewis +1000
Vance Joseph +1000
Dirk Koetter +1200
Jay Gruden +1200
Todd Bowles +1600
Bill O'Brien +2000
Jason Garrett +2500
John Harbaugh +2800
Jon Gruden +2800
Pete Carroll +2800

These aren’t exactly good odds that Garrett will be the first head coach fired, but they are the ninth-most. Dallas isn’t necessarily predicted to be a powerhouse this season either, but it’s worth noting that they are in the top half of the NFL when it comes to projected odds to win the Super Bowl as well.

Odds to win Super Bowl 53:

Patriots+650
Eagles+850
Steelers+1000
Rams/Vikings +1100
Packers+1400
Saints/Texans +1800
49ers/Falcons +2000
Chargers/Jaguars +2200
Raiders+2800
Chiefs+3000
Giants/Cowboys +3300
Panthers+3500
Broncos+4000
Titans+4500
Ravens/Lions +5500

It feels like Garrett is going to need to win, at the very least, a playoff game (or two) and/or reach the NFC Championship Game for perception around him to be that he shouldn’t be fired. The road is going to be difficult considering he shares a division with the reigning world champion Philadelphia Eagles, although the Cowboys do have the second-best odds at winning the NFC East.

Jason Garrett has been given a lot of time to make his mark with the Dallas Cowboys. A season without Jason Witten and Dez Bryant will focus on his face as one of the more seasoned on the sidelines. Can he pull it off, or do these odds have a point?

https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/201...y-to-be-first-head-coach-fired-dallas-cowboys

Think whoever places a bet on Garrett being ired is just throwing money away. The only way he'd get fired is if the team turned on him, which i dont see happening

 

[Sydla]

My only comparison to the two so far has been they all make mistakes which no one has denied. I have standards too, I wanted to see the Cowboys make the playoffs but I also understand what the circumstances were and think it would be hard for any coach to overcome those same obstacles. I’ve also seen JG take a rookie QB and RB to within a few seconds of beating one of the best QB’s to ever play the game and a highly regarded coach in the playoffs.

As I’ve said for several months now if we don’t make the playoffs and barring any major personnel setbacks then I’ll be fine with them firing him but I can’t get on board with it yet. I don’t care what Tomlin, Reid, Peyton, etc have done so far, I don’t think the results would have been much different, if at all, if they were coaching the past 6-7 years.

I think it's some Garrett blindness to suggest that a guy like Andy Reid, even with his flaws, couldn't have done better than one playoff win in 7 seasons if he had been hired instead of Garrett. He rebuilt an Eagles team and at one point had been in 4 straight NFC Title games in his first seven years with the Eagles. And in 6 seasons with KC, he's made the playoffs 4 times.

I am not sure how one then concludes that he couldn't have done better than 2 playoff appearances in 7 seasons in Dallas. You are just doing what I suggested......... you are cutting off more accomplished coaches at the knees trying to prop up Garrett to largely be a victim of circumstance and bad luck.

 

[aria]

I don't know about "carried" JG but I do think Garrett had the little success he did have largely because he was handed a competent QB when he took over full time as HC. It's common sense. Would Garrett have been able to go 8-8 his first full three years if he had Weeden as his QB? Of course not. Note, that's not me saying Garrett did nothing. I don't think he's an awful coach, I just don't believe he's a very good one.

Using your examples, most certainly Tomlin and Reid benefitted as well from having good QBs. Tomlin isn't winning a SB with a bum at QB and Reid isn't in four straight NFC Title games with a dud at QB. But at some point, just having a good QB isn't enough. You have to be a competent coach to get where guys like Tomlin, Reid, etc. have gotten. I don't think Reid or Tomlin are elite, the best of the best, but both are very good coaches and certainly better coaches than Garrett.

I won’t put up too much of a fight. I’ll give them the slight edge due to their accomplishments. You’re right, having a good QB isn’t enough, a good defense normally helps and KC and Pitt have typically ahd mich better defenses than us.

Regardless, I’m sure we can all point out multiple factors for each an every coach that contributed to their wins or losses. I was just pointing significant circumstances IMO that contributed to JG’s failures that I think any coach would have a hard time overcoming.

 

[Jake]

And thereinlies the problem with Garrett. He should be in full control of all of that. Icing the kicker and all the important decisions. The fact that this guy simply sits around while others determine the fate of the game is mind boggling. It would be more proof that Garrett is useless and not in control of the situation.

Do you think any of the great coaches is going to let someone else call timeouts, ice kickers, ect...ect.....?

You're not wrong, but the odds of Jerry hiring any of those "great coaches" after Garrett are slim. Most of us know what kind of coach works for Jerry. That's why it'll be someone no one else would dream of promoting (Campo), someone with Dallas ties but no HC experience who specifically wants to coach the Cowboys (Garrett), or a failed head coach desperate for another shot (Wade).

All of those types will let Jerry be Jerry without a fuss. "Great coaches" (Jimmy, Parcells) quickly grew tired of his shenanigans. Current "great coaches" are already getting paid and know what Jerry brings with him - they don't need it.

 

[aria]

I think it's some Garrett blindness to suggest that a guy like Andy Reid, even with his flaws, couldn't have done better than one playoff win in 7 seasons if he had been hired instead of Garrett. He rebuilt an Eagles team and at one point had been in 4 straight NFC Title games in his first seven years with the Eagles. And in 6 seasons with KC, he's made the playoffs 4 times.

I am not sure how one then concludes that he couldn't have done better than 2 playoff appearances in 7 seasons in Dallas. You are just doing what I suggested......... you are cutting off more accomplished coaches at the knees trying to prop up Garrett to largely be a victim of circumstance and bad luck.

Not what I’m trying to do at all. As most of the time, you clearly don’t see my point and are jumping to conclusions so it’s really pointless to continue discussing this with you any further. Don’t worry, I’m sure we’ll cross paths again in the near future and we can disagree more

 

[Sydla]

I won’t put up too much of a fight. I’ll give them the slight edge due to their accomplishments. You’re right, having a good QB isn’t enough, a good defense normally helps and KC and Pitt have typically ahd mich better defenses than us.

Regardless, I’m sure we can all point out multiple factors for each an every coach that contributed to their wins or losses. I was just pointing significant circumstances IMO that contributed to JG’s failures that I think any coach would have a hard time overcoming.

I think some of the circumstances are overstated. It would be highly unusual for a coach to be in a job as long as Garrett has been with little to no real success and eventually, the breaks wouldn't go his way.

The reality is that while he has had some issues that hindered him, he and his staff have never been more than average coaches. Average coaches beget average results. After 8 years (meaning this coming season), if he can't be anymore than a coach who may or may not make the playoffs, I think trying to argue he's a victim of bad circumstances is poppycock argument.

 

[CouchCoach]

How in the hell did Jon Gruden even get on that list? I'd put him at 31st, right above Belichick, with the contract he got.

I hate to disappoint those wishing for this but it's not happening. Garrett is not getting fired this year regardless of what happens. Linehan is the next to go.

 

[Sydla]

Not what I’m trying to do at all. As most of the time, you clearly don’t see my point and are jumping to conclusions so it’s really pointless to continue discussing this with you any further. Don’t worry, I’m sure we’ll cross paths again in the near future and we can disagree more

I don't think I missed your point at all. You clearly said you didn't think the results would be all that different, at all, if those guys were coaching instead of Garrett here in Dallas.

You may not realize it but in saying that, you are pretty much saying Garrett is a victim of bad circumstances whereas Reid and Tomlin, two guys you think are largely morons, have basically had ideal circumstances. When you say a guy like Reid couldn't have done a better job than Garrett, you are, in fact, cutting off a successful coach at the knees trying to chalk up his success to things other than his coaching prowess.

 

[aria]

Do you think any of the great coaches is going to let someone else call timeouts, ice kickers, ect...ect.....?

No, they usually do it themselves. Remember genius Tomlins decision to go for an onsides kick last year against the Jags in the playoffs with over 2 mins remaining and 2 TO’s? Cowboys fans would have gone ape if that was JG but hey, he gets a free pass accordding to some.

What about when the immature Peyton ran onto the field against the Falcons on 3rd down and possinly lost his team the game by drawing a flag?

I can continue to go on, as I’m sure you can with JG but again, they point is they all make mistakes.

 

[Sydla]

No, they usually do it themselves. Remember genius Tomlins decision to go for an onsides kick last year against the Jags in the playoffs with over 2 mins remaining and 2 TO’s? Cowboys fans would have gone ape if that was JG but hey, he gets a free pass accordding to some.

What about when the immature Peyton ran onto the field against the Falcons on 3rd down and possinly lost his team the game by drawing a flag?

I can continue to go on, as I’m sure you can with JG but again, they point is they all make mistakes.

Tomlin gets a "free" pass because he's shown he can coach teams to the highest level in football. That's why he gets a "pass". I simply don't understand why people try this line of reasoning to defend Garrett that ignores the fact that while another coach has made mistakes, he's also proven he can make enough good calls to get a team to the SB or conference title games, etc.

This isn't hard. Coaches that win and win a lot and have taken teams to high levels get more leeway when they make mistakes than coaches that have not. Because on one hand, you know that while making a mistake, one of those coaches has shown that he can make enough good coaching decisions (or limits his bad decisions) to get to the highest levels in the NFL and the other coach has never proven that.

And frankly, Tomlin caught a lot of flak for that decision to kick the onsides kick, even from his own fans.