Listen.. It's just my opinion. I may be wrong.. But I look around the league and don't see a lot of terrible QB's on any team and I just don't see the Ryan Leaf / Jamarcus Russell busts at the rate like I used to see them.
You really have to search for a QB thats just "terrible" and it's guys like Eli, Flacco, and Nick Foles who are former Superbowl champions.
Andy Dalton? Nobody wants him but again he's nothing terrible.
Jameis Winston? Complete knucklehead but he probably does well in Dallas with less on his shoulders..
Derek Carr? I actually would love to see him in this offense.
Let’s just make a little list of the first round QB’s selected in recent history. I am not going to include the two most recent drafts. As one class hasn’t played yet. The other has only played one season so I don’t think it’s fair to say they are/aren’t better than Dak yet.
2017:
Mahomes, Watson, Trubisky.
So that’s one QB who is clearly better. One who may be slightly better depending on who you ask, and one that is probably around the same as Dak.
2016:
Goff, Wentz, Lynch.
One clear bust.
The other two, we have all had arguments about over and over again. Let’s not argue about it here.
2015:
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota.
Dak has been better than both, to this point in his career. They both still have a lot of potential though.
2014:
Blake bortles
Johnny manziel
Teddy bridgewater
Dak is better than all 3.
2013:
EJ manuel. LOL
2012:
Andrew Luck
Robert griffin 3
Ryan tannehill
Brandon weeden.
Luck was better than Dak. Dak is better than the other 3.
2011:
Cam newton
Jake Locker
Blaine gabbert
Christian Ponder
Let’s say Cam is better. Dak is better than the other 3.
So, out of 20 QB’s drafted in the first round:
3 are clearly better than Dak. Two of those 3 were #1 overall picks. The other (Mahomes) was taken 10th overall.
Let’s say another 4 are as good as Dak/maybe a little better maybe a little worse. Around the same level.
Those would be: Goff, Wentz, Watson and Trubisky.
Goff was #1 overall. Wentz was #2 overall. Trubisky was #3 overall and Watson was 12th overall.
So. Out of 20 QB’s taken since 2011. Only 15% are clearly better than Dak. Two of them were number one overall picks. One was top 10.
Another 20% are around the same level as Dak.
3 of those were top 5 picks. One was top 12.
So that’s only 35% of QB’s who are even as good as or better than Dak.
You have 65% of the first rounders that aren’t even as good as Dak.
Also, most of the QB’s who are as good as Dak, Required a top pick to get their QB. Meaning to even be in position to draft one of them, you would need to either tank an entire season which would be silly given the talent level of the team IMO.
Or, you would have to trade multiple first round picks, and other draft capital, to move up into position to take a top 5 pick as QB.
So even to give yourself that 15 or 20% chance of getting one better than Dak. You’re probably going to need to spend at least TWO first round pick, plus other draft picks.
So again, I get the concerns about Dak. Yes I would love to have an elite QB myself. I would trade Dak for Rodgers or Mahomes or Brady right now, no question.
But, people are NOT being realistic about how hard it is to find a QB as good as Dak. Chances are better that you use a bunch of draft capital to draft a QB in the first round again. And the QB could still end up being no better than Dak has been.