Vtwin
Safety third
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I am also an engineer that evolved to process engineer and project manager before just manager.
Analytics nerds for the NFL need to take many deep breaths and go back to work.
They have not yet managed to provide much more than raw data and some assumptions.
The top 6 teams in the NFL in time of possession were in the playoffs. Top rushing teams in the playoffs. Top passing teams, largely at home.
Reality is goofballs need to stop.
If you can make it to the AFC CG with Ryan Tannehill then passing isn't so important as we have been chirped to by the Analytics community.
In the NFL there has always been a cause and effect of what the offense does versus what the defense does.
There is also a very real time component.
EPA (analytics main football brainchild) at this point has missed the boat largely (as the master metric) because it does not sufficiently address time.
We should have analytics nerds challenging each other harshly instead of this weird nerd herd mentality vociferously defending what is largely nonsense.
PER TEAM analytics are VERY useless and helpful.
Knowing a defense likes to play a set defense in a set situation is huge.
Same in reverse.
But saying well there's a 65% chance of success with the pass here is dumb. The Defense has that same number and knows to play pass defense.
Throwing it on 1st down all game because EPA says so is just stupid and you should be beaten and dumped into a toilet like the nerds of yore.
Every project I have hated was led by some goofball thinking they understand data. Then they made changes that were worse than the original while wasting time and money. That money usually equates to jobs and people lost. That usually equates to the people still around working twice as hard with more duties.
Did Derrick Henry complete the TD pass because the play action was effective? Yes. Did they fully expect DH to run? Yes.
Would play action work if you didn't run it AT ALL? NO, lol.
Would it work if you didn't run it great? Yes. Because you are still going to have been taught certain techniques and have muscle memory.
But you are much more likely to have an extra defender in the box if you are running well the defense has to adjust before you hit them with play action.