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Mike McCarthy's Analytics Fraud

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by Toruk_Makto, Jan 11, 2020.

  1. waldoputty

    waldoputty Well-Known Member

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    it really does not matter whether a stats 101 level regression calculation is appropriate or not for run efficiency relevancy to passing efficiency.

    there is a 14 person team working on analytics. there are a few coaches in the group, but it is highly doubtful they are the ones doing the regression or god forbid, developing the model. there must be some quants in the group that is doing the work.

    it is highly doubtful that one year of analytics study will teach a few jogs that much about statistics. that does not make them a fraud. all you can hope for from even one year of intense serious study in analytics is an appreciation of importance of analytics. does anyone really expect someone (likely) with ZERO background in stats and math to truly get more than that. you have got to be kidding.

    and having the coach understand the proper role of analytics is really all you need and want. this is not baseball where analytics play a bigger role, and the conditions are much more relevant for a more scientific approach for improving pitching and hitting. there are far more variables that cannot be accounted for in football.

    so there is no need to argue whether run efficiency matters to pass efficiency. to interpret a simple regression model is stats 101. but really understanding the model and how flimsy the model is is actually something you would hire a phd to do.
     
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  2. buybuydandavis

    buybuydandavis Well-Known Member

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    If.

    That if is more likely if they fear your running game.
     
  3. HotDog37

    HotDog37 Well-Known Member

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    Good grief the new HC is already tarred and feathered. F' n amazing.


    lol
     
  4. SSoup

    SSoup Well-Known Member

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    I'm as suspicious as anyone that McCarthy just seized on analytics as a buzzword/concept to make himself appealing to potential employers. I mean, he casually jokes about the lies he told in his interview just because he wanted the job. So we know what kind of craven person he is.

    That said: his time in Green Bay, even before he pretended to do a deep-dive into analytics during his hiatus, was largely characterized as being a stint where he blatantly disregarded the running game compared to most of his contemporaries. So seizing on a quote where he pays lip service to the running game, while his actual track record says he feels the opposite, is cherry-picking.

    What did you expect, for him to say? "Lookit, this team screwed the pooch with over-drafting Ezekiel Elliott and handing him that stupid extension. In 2020, it's foolish for us to build the team in a way that suggests we think we're in the late '80s or early '90s. " And then, after basically saying Jerry is an idiot, you figure he'd put on sunglasses and moonwalk out of there? And keep his job, and avoid distractions from the local media, and be able to exert any influence over Jerry as we make free agent and draft decisions? I don't think any of those things would've happened if he spent his first week sniping at Jerry and bagging on Elliott/running.

    Bottom line: Jerry wasn't going to hire anybody who didn't placate him about how vital Elliott is and how happy they are that he's locked up. And because of McCarthy's history of not prioritizing running or RBs at all, he probably had to make an even bigger deal about how wildly happy he is to have Elliott, just to overcompensate.

    And the media and the bulk of the fanbase would only ratchet up the heat on him if his first act as head coach was to publicly pit himself against a popular star player like Elliott.
     
    percyhoward likes this.
  5. 65fastback2plus2

    65fastback2plus2 Well-Known Member

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    That's not true at all. He was answering a question about using analytics for situational decision making.

    Tony Romo has talked about BB's use of analytics before in helping determine what the other team is going to do. And also talked about how when up big BB will run plays they wouldn't normally run to mess with the analytics.

    So BB does indeed use it and fight against it on purpose.
     
  6. Hoofbite

    Hoofbite Well-Known Member

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    I don't think the NFL world uses the word, "analytics", in the same fashion as an engineer would. I'm inclined to think that the NFL's interpretation focuses more on opportunities (i.e. how the defense does, or does not, adjust) than it does data outcomes from across the league over the course of multiple seasons.
     
    garyo1954 likes this.
  7. Dre11

    Dre11 Well-Known Member

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    analytics get you beat.
     
  8. Dre11

    Dre11 Well-Known Member

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    I bet John Harbauagh is smacking that analytics book around right now....lol
     
    Ranching likes this.
  9. Hoofbite

    Hoofbite Well-Known Member

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  10. Runwildboys

    Runwildboys Well-Known Member

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    Oof!
     
    waldoputty likes this.
  11. Runwildboys

    Runwildboys Well-Known Member

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    Whaddya mean "he"?
     
    obidiah likes this.
  12. brooksey1

    brooksey1 Zone Supporter

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    How irrelevant is running the football? Ask NE and Baltimore about Derrick Henry :muttley:

    It's a passing league in the sense that most teams run a 65-35% split if not higher yes
    but If you want to run it.... then run the ball 50-50. The 2014, 2016 Cowboys...2019 SF 49ers, 2019 Ravens, 2019 Tenn Titans all did it with great success just to name a few.
    It works if you want it to work. The closer we are to 50-50 balance run/pass the more wins we have..check that stat.

    Check out what Derrick Henry is doing omg... these DB's don't want to tackle in this day and age.
    Tenn and SF are running the football with great success.
     
    Runwildboys likes this.
  13. johneric8

    johneric8 Well-Known Member

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    This is who and what he says he does, but my money is on that it's Garrett himself. Who else would post such drivel.
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2020
  14. lostar2009

    lostar2009 Well-Known Member

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    Rex Ryan called McCarthy a fraud on this on ESPN :muttley:
     
  15. dckid

    dckid Well-Known Member

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    Just like a three pointer is better than a mid range two. Of course analytics isn’t the absolute answer just because so many other factors come into play. A great example is the Falcons, Patriots SB. Falcons blow a 28-3 lead. Sometimes the opponent is the clock va the team. I am sure the analytics said keep scoring because that is what you are good at. But the Falcons were better served taking a knee every play and winding the clock and would have won. The f course that is an extreme example.
     
  16. Runwildboys

    Runwildboys Well-Known Member

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    FIFY
     
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  17. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    Good thread, and the above post is the best post of the thread. No other analyst is Baldwin's league right now.

    Rushing success and rushing frequency have no effect on play-action results. As old beliefs slowly die, the amount of play action will increase because we're going to see more and more shotgun on 1st and 10, which means more shotgun runs and more shotgun play action.
     
  18. waldoputty

    waldoputty Well-Known Member

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    while i am no football quant, it sure seems this is a case of shallow use of stats. i also am not privy to the 'fancy' football models, but i dont see anything in the calculation to indicate the model accounts for obvious well known problems. for example, self selection bias.

    and self selection bias is just one of a bunch of issues with stats modeling that goes beyond stats 101. that is beyond running a regression and treating the correlation as gospel. just as a disclaimer, i am no phd in statistics.

    i will just use self selection bias as an example. a regression is no better than its data set. that is garbage in -> garbage out. it sure seems that earth-shattering regression is just someone doing a regression of plays with play action and plays without play action. does it in any way take account of the fact that teams would not run a play action under certain circumstances. for example, would you run a play action if the defender is penetrating the backfield in 2 seconds. i dont think so. so you effectively have eliminated data points in which the defense is too dominant. gee, i wonder what happens to the pass efficiency when you eliminate some data points when the defense is too dominant... and this is just one of many problems in statistical analysis, and you got the 'ultimate' team sport in football where you have interactions all over the place.
     
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  19. Runwildboys

    Runwildboys Well-Known Member

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    Who are you, and what have you done with Waldoputty? :laugh:
     
  20. doomsday9084

    doomsday9084 Well-Known Member

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    I get the impression that the word "analytics" is basically saying "math". Teams use "math" to help them make decisions instead of purely going on gut instinct. Yay. As anyone who has used "math" with tell you, there are a lot of ways to do it and depending on how you do, you can get many outputs. The OP is a little overcooked in that his criticism should be more nuanced and a little less . . . angry.
     

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