superonyx
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So looking back at HoF RB over the years you have Sweetness, Emmitt, and Curtis Martin who were able to carry the load post age 29 and then you have everyone else.
Since success rate of rookies 1st and 2nd rounders has been brought up I figured context was important. While Half of rookies fail, the vast majority of HoF RB in their thirties fail. Eric Dickerson, Jerome Bettis, Gayle Sayers, Marshall Faulk, Floyd Little, Roger Craig, Thurman Thomas, Earl Campbell and Marcus Allen all tanked by 30.
Good points. However it's also important what numbers people consider when saying the hall of fame runners "failed". I would be willing to guess that the failings of the hall of fame backs still exceeded the production of the rookie failings. Also I would imagine the failure rate of rookie RB's exceeds 50%.
My thoughts are that the biggest impact a running back has on a team will be the amount the back forces the defense to account for them. Peterson is a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball. Defenders know to account for his combination of size, speed, and strength. This isn't something that a rookie back will most likely give you. (Maybe Gurley?). Plus to get one of the top backs we would most likely have to trade down. That leaves us with backs that will most likely be committee backs that never impact the game like Peterson can.
Peterson gives us everything Demarco gave us last year with the added benefit of having game breaking ability.
I wish the draft was already here. I'm tired of not knowing how this thing will play out.