Adrian Peterson Sweepstakes ***Officially reinstated (again) and merged***

[jnday]

Wouldn't the risk of him being rusty be higher if he was 25?

You know 4 additional seasons playing the game makes it less likely he'd be rusty at 30 vs 25.

No, old age changes everything. Even for AP. I like AP and wish him the best, but I would much rather have s young stud that could carry the load for another five years. Nobody knows if AP will go back to his old form. I know from my aging process that my body can adjust , stay in better shape and have good reflexes better at age 25 than at age 30.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Let me say this one thing about Peterson and the "bigger risks" theory. Running backs do have a short lifespan in the NFL, and Peterson could be at the point where he hits the wall, but I do think you have to consider the fact that he hasn't shown himself to be the normal running back.

Emmitt Smith played 11 seasons before he essentially hit the wall (even though he had one more 1,000-yard season). At what point in time was it wishful thinking in terms of how he would perform?

I believe it's wishful thinking to believe that McFadden is going to be a 4.0-plus back after three years under 3.5 because the evidence is against him.

Peterson's numbers indicate that he might be much more like Emmitt than like McFadden. In the sixth year of his career, he had his best season, topping out at 6.0 per carry. Even in his last full year, he averaged 4.5. There's no real indication of decline looking at his career numbers unless you count the one game he played in last year.

There is more reason to believe he would be able to keep up what he's been doing throughout his career rather than suddenly dropping off. Could it happen? Of course. But it seems about as likely as Emmitt dropping off suddenly from the player he had shown himself to be.

He might be more like Emmitt than DMC? Mental gymnastics aside, AP is not built like 22 who never had a serious leg injury. You point to the outlier and assuming the outliers all got there the same way but there is no reason to imply causality. You are reaching pretty hard. He already has 2000 career carries.

I don't know that DMC makes the roster but between him and the three other guys competing for those two remaining spots, we will have some talented runners.

 

[ufcrules1]

I think it would be idiotic to give a young Frederick, Martin or Tyron Smith for a 30 year old RB. Carr makes all this possible including the Cap, stay away from our 1st...or 2nd IMhumbleO

Your team dominates with the run game to a 12-4 record and you have all the pieces in place to do it again except RB. You want to trust that to an unproven rookie? I just can't see that happening.

 

[NorthwestDallas40]

We were in the running because we had a 1800 yard back. Now we don't........

Exactly

 

[NorthwestDallas40]

We were in the division playoffs and almost won. We are already a super bowl contender going into the draft. You want to be the Snyderesque frontrunner.

If we give up the high restricted amount for a 30 year old RB, it's going to be Joey Galloway all over again. Giving up premium picks for skill position players doesn't work. That is where you find the worst trades of all time.

As another poster said, we were in the division playoffs because we had the NFL offensive MVP and 1800 yard rusher. Now we have Darren McFadden. I dont want to be the Snydersque frontrunner, but when the best RB in the NFL becomes available, even if he's only the best for 2 more years, I think you do it WHEN AND ONLY WHEN it coincides with your QB having 3 more good years left. Snyder makes moves like this without his team being a contender. It's different.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

As another poster said, we were in the division playoffs because we had the NFL offensive MVP and 1800 yard rusher. Now we have Darren McFadden. I dont want to be the Snydersque frontrunner, but when the best RB in the NFL becomes available, even if he's only the best for 2 more years, I think you do it WHEN AND ONLY WHEN it coincides with your QB having 3 more good years left. Snyder makes moves like this without his team being a contender. It's different.

He was an important part of the team but we were there behind that OL which is by far the strongest unit on the team and possibly NFL.

 

[NorthwestDallas40]

He was an important part of the team but we were there behind that OL which is by far the strongest unit on the team and possibly NFL.

And knock on wood, what happens to the team if one of those great OL goes down? Wouldn't you rather have AP running behind Berny at C or G than Jay Ajayi or Tevin Coleman + Darren McFadden? Again, when you have a chance to get a true difference-maker, and your team is in the hunt for a Super Bowl, you do it. Joey Galloway was never in AP's class. And I'm not advocating two #1s for AP. He can be had for maybe a #2 on draft day.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Running backs get no such benefit of the doubt, nor should they from a strict business sense. Even Minnesota Vikings tailback Adrian Peterson, one of the league's best players at any position, contributed to the curve at age 28 last season. It's true that he had the fifth-most rushing yards (1,266) in the NFL, but he also missed two games and overall fell 40 percent from his 2,097-yard effort in 2012.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/123542/inside-slant-running-back-cliff-after-age-27

 

[NorthwestDallas40]

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/123542/inside-slant-running-back-cliff-after-age-27

I generally agree. And in any other circumstance, I would not consider dealing for a 30-year old RB. But I believe for the 2-3 years Romo has left, after which we have to then hit the "reset" button on this franchise, I would rather take the chance that AP, with a year of rest under his belt and behind this OL for the next 3 seasons, rather than a rookie RB, gives us the best chance to win a Super Bowl.

 

[Pessimist_cowboy]

Offer them a 2nd and Brandon Carr.

They want a 1st and a CB.

 

[gimmesix]

He might be more like Emmitt than DMC? Mental gymnastics aside, AP is not built like 22 who never had a serious leg injury. You point to the outlier and assuming the outliers all got there the same way but there is no reason to imply causality. You are reaching pretty hard. He already has 2000 career carries.

I don't know that DMC makes the roster but between him and the three other guys competing for those two remaining spots, we will have some talented runners.

Tell me who is reaching more. The person who believes a back who has never rushed for under 4 yards a carry in his carry and rushed for 4.5 in his last full season can't do it or the one who believes a back who has averaged less than 3.5 his last three seasons, two backups who've never carried more than 54 times in a season and a back who has never even been close to making it through a season healthy qualify as "some talented runners."

It seems that you want to do everything to discredit that Peterson could succeed here while I'm willing to concede that he might not. His career already shows he's more like Emmitt than DMC, but that doesn't mean he's going to continue to be like Emmitt. There's just evidence to believe that he might. More evidence than there is to believe we could even come close to getting by with those "talented" guys that we've got.

I'm not going to continue on with you on this because it is obvious that you are not being rational about it (even though you apparently believe that you are). If there is anyone else who believes the evidence I've presented is faulty I would love to discuss it with you.

I believe the evidence speaks for itself for anyone willing to listen to it. I don't believe it means that any back will take will fail or that Peterson will succeed, but there are probabilities that can be seen when we look at that evidence that clearly indicate the risks and possible rewards either way that we go.

 

[Howboutdemcowboys31]

we wont give up what we did for Williams and Galloway, but it's also silly to bring up those players because they weren't even all pros, let alone future HOFs like Peterson.

FreeAD

 

[mickswag]

 

[gimmesix]

Well, they can have half of what they want and we'll call it even.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Tell me who is reaching more. The person who believes a back who has never rushed for under 4 yards a carry in his carry and rushed for 4.5 in his last full season can't do it or the one who believes a back who has averaged less than 3.5 his last three seasons, two backups who've never carried more than 54 times in a season and a back who has never even been close to making it through a season healthy qualify as "some talented runners."

It seems that you want to do everything to discredit that Peterson could succeed here while I'm willing to concede that he might not. His career already shows he's more like Emmitt than DMC, but that doesn't mean he's going to continue to be like Emmitt. There's just evidence to believe that he might. More evidence than there is to believe we could even come close to getting by with those "talented" guys that we've got.

I'm not going to continue on with you on this because it is obvious that you are not being rational about it (even though you apparently believe that you are). If there is anyone else who believes the evidence I've presented is faulty I would love to discuss it with you.

I believe the evidence speaks for itself for anyone willing to listen to it. I don't believe it means that any back will take will fail or that Peterson will succeed, but there are probabilities that can be seen when we look at that evidence that clearly indicate the risks and possible rewards either way that we go.

You certainly seem intent on bringing 22 into the discussion and asserting unknowable nonsense. Invoking Emmitt isn't an argument against RB career trends that AP has correlated with.

I didn't denounce AP. I denounce giving up a top 100 pick and paying a dozen million dollars.

4th and a paycut.

 

[pansophy]

Tell me who is reaching more. The person who believes a back who has never rushed for under 4 yards a carry in his carry and rushed for 4.5 in his last full season can't do it or the one who believes a back who has averaged less than 3.5 his last three seasons, two backups who've never carried more than 54 times in a season and a back who has never even been close to making it through a season healthy qualify as "some talented runners."

It seems that you want to do everything to discredit that Peterson could succeed here while I'm willing to concede that he might not. His career already shows he's more like Emmitt than DMC, but that doesn't mean he's going to continue to be like Emmitt. There's just evidence to believe that he might. More evidence than there is to believe we could even come close to getting by with those "talented" guys that we've got.

I'm not going to continue on with you on this because it is obvious that you are not being rational about it (even though you apparently believe that you are). If there is anyone else who believes the evidence I've presented is faulty I would love to discuss it with you.

I believe the evidence speaks for itself for anyone willing to listen to it. I don't believe it means that any back will take will fail or that Peterson will succeed, but there are probabilities that can be seen when we look at that evidence that clearly indicate the risks and possible rewards either way that we go.

He absolutely could succeed. This is about resource allocation. He could be the first back to run for more than 2000 yards twice and in his 30's and we will still be hard pressed to win with our defense.

We spent whatever money that could theoretically be used for AP and spent it on Hardy. We may only have him 1 year, so we need to continue to develop draft picks on the defensive side of the ball.

To do that we can't trade picks away for Peterson, and we can't lock up big dollars at the RB position since we may need that money to continue to sign defensive players.

A 3rd or 4th round rookie might fail but we can draft another next year if he does. If we sign AP to a big 3 or 4 year deal and he fails we are screwed.

There is no scenerio where the risk reward is worth it. If he's released and wants to play for about what McFadden got then great, but he's not going to want to do that.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

A 3rd or 4th round rookie might fail but we can draft another next year if he does. If we sign AP to a big 3 or 4 year deal and he fails we are screwed.

Well said.

 

[NorthwestDallas40]

Well that seals it... We are definitely trading for AP

 

[Howboutdemcowboys31]

I wonder how many people are saying no to AP but will change their mind if it happens

 

[burmafrd]

always start out high and then come down. I am sure the viqueens know they ain't getting a #1.

Unless we diddle them and offer them Mo. (which one could say fulfills both demands- a #1 and a CB)