Adrian Peterson Sweepstakes ***Officially reinstated (again) and merged***

[Toruk_Makto]

No, old age changes everything. Even for AP. I like AP and wish him the best, but I would much rather have s young stud that could carry the load for another five years. Nobody knows if AP will go back to his old form. I know from my aging process that my body can adjust , stay in better shape and have good reflexes better at age 25 than at age 30.

You said he'd be rusty. What do you mean by that? Being away from the game for a year isn't going to make AD "rusty." The man has played running back his entire life at a level few ever have.

 

[esloan]

This is what you and others simply aren't getting. Jerry has made VERY dumb decisions in the past with teams that had no chance of going to the super bowl.
THIS team right now, has a VERY legit chance of making/winning a super bowl. When you are this close, you go out and get that player.

To recap.

1. In the past Jerry overpaid for players when we had a crappy team,
2. This team is completely different. It's only a a couple of players away from a LEGIT super bowl team.
3. Winning a super bowl trumps EVERYTHING.

I am really wondering how you consider this a potential Super Bowl team? Isn't it you that thinks Romo is a loser and will never win anything? Why give up a first for a RB when you think Romo is never going to win anything?

 

[pansophy]

I wonder how many people are saying no to AP but will change their mind if it happens

I won't, but if he is the reason we win a Super Bowl I'll be happy to say I was wrong.

We had the best runner by 500 yards last year and won 1 playoff game. AP would have to run the 2nd most yards he ever has to be as good as Murray was last year - again that got us 1 playoff game.

We aren't 1 RB away from a Super Bowl. We need money and picks spent on defense.

p.s. If Peterson is cut and plays for 3 million per year that's not changing my mind. I'm against trading for him and paying big dollars for him.

 

[pansophy]

I am really wondering how you consider this a potential Super Bowl team? Isn't it you that thinks Romo is a loser and will never win anything? Why give up a first for a RB when you think Romo is never going to win anything?

That and the fact that we had the RB in the league last year by 500 yards and didn't win.

 

[Beast_from_East]

The Cowboys should have traded Emmitt for a 1st when he was 30. Darn that Parcells for just cutting him.

He would have been worth it.................not all running backs fall off a cliff at 30 yrs old, that is why the age thing with Peterson is just bizarre.

Emmitt at 30 yrs old................almost 1400 yards, 4.2 average per carry, 11 TDs, 10 runs over 20+ yards, 2 runs over 40+ yards, only 4 fumbles.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Why are fans here even talking about trading pick #1 or #2 in the draft for Adrian Peterson? Not a chance in wherever would a GM do that and still consider themselves competent to make their own breakfast let alone run a team.

Sorry, but only an idiot (IMO) would give up such high pick for a RB, while a good one, that is 30 years old and will cost us some REAL money. Look at this draft, you can get a starter this year for less and one who will be around for longer.

I would not give anything higher than a 4th round pick and only one pick for AP. If we cant do it for that or less, then don't do it period.

The problem in your scenario is what multiple posters have been pointing out..............the draft is a crapshoot!!

Several previous drafts with multiple RBs selected high have been analyzed in many posts in this thread and the bottom line is that even in good RB years, its no more than a 50% hit rate. In some drafts, its even worse. 2008 is always pointed to as a great draft for RBs, there were 7 over the first two rounds.

2008 NFL draft for RBs.......5 taken in the first round, 2 taken in the second round:

Darren McFadden.............................1 season over 1000 yards
Jonathan Stewart..............................1 season over 1000 yards
Felix Jones........................................never rushed for over 1000 yards in a single season
Rashad Mendenhall..........................2 seasons over 1000 yards...............retired after 2013 season
Chris Johnson...................................6 seasons over 1000 yards, including a 2000 yard season in 2009
Matt Forte..........................................5 seasons over 1000 yards
Ray Rice............................................4 seasons over 1000 yards..............currently out of NFL due to domestic violence.

So Chris Johnson and Matt Forte both have had 5 seasons or more of over 1000 yards, so you could say they were worth their pick. McFadden and Stewart each had just a single season over 1000 yards, total bust picks in the first round. Don't need to say anything about Felix Jones other than if you draft a RB in the first round and he never rushes for over 1000 yards in his entire career, well that is the bust of all bust picks at RB. Mendenhall had just two seasons over 1000 yards, again a bust pick for a first rounder. Ray Rice you could argu was worth his pick, he did put up 4 seasons over 1000 yards before his domestic violence issue happened.

So 3 guys out of 7 were actually worth the high pick used on them.............that is a 42% hit rate in one of the deepest RB drafts of all time, 5 first round picks.

Bottom line.............even in the deepest of RB drafts, you still have almost a 60% chance of drafting a bust.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It's funny how people go from Emmitt being able to do something to it meaning that AP can do it too.

Talk about a non-sequitor. There are plenty of examples of great runners that fell off a cliff.

For every Emmitt and Sweetness you have a Bettis or Faulk who never had another 1000 yard season after 28. Simpsons cliff was 29. Allen 25. Sanders and Brown famously quit.

 

[JoeKing]

It's funny how people go from Emmitt being able to do something to it meaning that AP can do it too.

Talk about a non-sequitor. There are plenty of examples of great runners that fell off a cliff.

For every Emmitt and Sweetness you have a Bettis or Faulk who never had another 1000 yard season after 28. Simpsons cliff was 29. Allen 25. Sanders and Brown famously quit.

The error in your comment is AP is still an active player and so you don't know if your accusation about him is true or not. But other than that... "good job".

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The error in your comment is AP is still an active player and so you don't know if your accusation about him is true or not. But other than that... "good job".

I didn't make an accusation. I was addressing the longevity of HoF RB as a whole. People are waving their hands at Emmitt and I am giving the context.

You seem irritated. Do you want to talk about it?

 

[JoeKing]

I didn't make an accusation. I was addressing the longevity of HoF RB as a whole. People are waving their hands at Emmitt and I am giving the context.

You seem irritated. Do you want to talk about it?

You most certainly made a case that AP will fall off just many other RBs have.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

You most certainly made a case that AP will fall off just many other RBs have.

I just said that most HoF backs tanked before 30 because they do. Make of that what you will. I just want people to quit comparing him to Emmitt, he doesn't run nor is he built like Emmitt. He's built like Roger Craig and he runs like Jim Brown.

Emmitt, Sweetness, and Curtis Martin all had very similar lowcut builds and running styles. AP isn't built nor does he run like those guys.

 

[JoeKing]

I just said that most HoF backs tanked before 30 because they do. Make of that what you will. I just want people to quit comparing him to Emmitt, he doesn't run nor is he built like Emmitt. He's built like Roger Craig and he runs like Jim Brown.

Emmitt, Sweetness, and Curtis Martin all had very similar lowcut builds and running styles. AP isn't built nor does he run like those guys.

For someone that has made no accusations about AP, you sure have made a lot of accusations about AP.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Eric Dickersons final 1000 yard season was age 29.

 

[esloan]

There is no way I would give up a first round pick on a 30 year old running back. I don't care if it is Adrian Peterson. Absolutely no way. I wouldn't give up a second rounder either. I might consider a third, depending on the contract he agreed to and that contract would have to be no more than three years and incentive based. Same with a fourth round pick.

I know AP was a phenomenal back. Hell, he probably still is a phenomenal back. But, the undeniable truth is that RBs tend to go off a cliff once they hit 30, never mind 31, 32 and 33. AP might not. But history shows he probably will. There is no way I would give up a premium pick and have to look at a 4 year contract with that kind of risk. Anyone who would is simply so enamored with the name and his past that they are blinded to the probable future.

 

[Rack]

AP would have to run the 2nd most yards he ever has to be as good as Murray was last year

its not that simple.

1) there's more to their performance than total rushing yards (ex. Fumbles, touchdowns)

2) having AP in the backfield would effect the back end of the defense a lot more than Murray could.


That being said, hell no to trading for AP.

 

[JoeKing]

Eric Dickersons final 1000 yard season was age 29.

So what. George Foreman was a boxing champion well into his 40's. Look at Tim Duncan having some of his most successful years pushing 40. There are numerous examples of athletes excelling over the age of 30. Just because it's rare does not exclude it all together. Being an NFL RB is perhaps better suited for a younger athlete but until an athlete is at least showing signs of decline, I would not count them out. AP is still at the top of his game until proven otherwise. Father time is undefeated and it will defeat AP as well but there is zero indication it has happened just yet.

 

[esloan]

So what. George Foreman was a boxing champion well into his 40's. Look at Tim Duncan having some of his most successful years pushing 40. There are numerous examples of athletes excelling over the age of 30. Just because it's rare does not exclude it all together. Being an NFL RB is perhaps better suited for a younger athlete but until an athlete is at least showing signs of decline, I would not count them out. AP is still at the top of his game until proven otherwise. Father time is undefeated and it will defeat AP as well but there is zero indication it has happened just yet.

Zero indication but not a lot to go on. He has not played in a year. Regardless, as I said before, it will catch up to him in the next few years. He may be 30 or 31 or 32 but it will catch up to him. Probably sooner than later. Which is why I would not be willing to part with a first, second or probably even third rounder. Nor would I be willing to give him a contract longer than 3 years and it would have to be incentive based. You do not tie yourself to a 30 year old running back for 4 years and with a big contract to boot.

Father time will catch up to him and, if history is any indication, it will probably be sooner rather than later. I am sorry but I am not willing to bet against Father Time nor the history of RBs in the NFL.

 

[mattjames2010]

its not that simple.

1) there's more to their performance than total rushing yards (ex. Fumbles, touchdowns)

2) having AP in the backfield would effect the back end of the defense a lot more than Murray could.


That being said, hell no to trading for AP.

1. AP has been a fumbling machine for most of his career

2. We don't know that.

But I'm glad even with those opinions, you still wouldn't trade for him.

 

[JoeKing]

Zero indication but not a lot to go on. He has not played in a year. Regardless, as I said before, it will catch up to him in the next few years. He may be 30 or 31 or 32 but it will catch up to him. Probably sooner than later. Which is why I would not be willing to part with a first, second or probably even third rounder. Nor would I be willing to give him a contract longer than 3 years and it would have to be incentive based. You do not tie yourself to a 30 year old running back for 4 years and with a big contract to boot.

Father time will catch up to him and, if history is any indication, it will probably be sooner rather than later. I am sorry but I am not willing to bet against Father Time nor the history of RBs in the NFL.

Father time will catch up to all of us including any RB you currently value over AP. It's a matter of time... but AP's time is not over yet, so stop selling him short as if he is already in decline. Maybe in a couple of years your point will be valid but not now. Now he is the best RB on the planet.

 

[esloan]

Father time will catch up to all of us including any RB you currently value over AP. It's a matter of time... but AP's time is not over yet, so stop selling him short as if he is already in decline. Maybe in a couple of years your point will be valid but not now. Now he is the best RB on the planet.

I am not selling him short. As I said in my comment above, he will probably have a great season, for whatever team he plays for. But, he is not going to want a one year contract, even if we renegotiate. He is going to want a multi-year deal. There is no way I give him a four year contract for the money he is going to want. He may have a great season this year but next year? The year after that? I would not want to be tied to a 30 year old RB with a large multi-year contract. That is suicide.