Adrian Peterson Sweepstakes ***Officially reinstated (again) and merged***

[JoeBoBBY]

Why are fans here even talking about trading pick #1 or #2 in the draft for Adrian Peterson? Not a chance in wherever would a GM do that and still consider themselves competent to make their own breakfast let alone run a team.

Sorry, but only an idiot (IMO) would give up such high pick for a RB, while a good one, that is 30 years old and will cost us some REAL money. Look at this draft, you can get a starter this year for less and one who will be around for longer.

I would not give anything higher than a 4th round pick and only one pick for AP. If we cant do it for that or less, then don't do it period.

Then you dont get AP and rely on a rookie to get you there.

 

[xwalker]

I get it, I hear ya. I understand all that.

But I take this risk.....its a risk. But I take it. Gurley may very well turn out to be good. I still want AP for the next 2 years. tick tick tick. That window is closing.

Is your clock in sync with Danny Snyder?

 

[JoeBoBBY]

Is your clock in sync with Danny Snyder?

No. Our 35 year old QB with a bad back......whats yours in sync with?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

We've listed four drafts in this thread alone where only one of them in the first and second rounds had 50 percent of the backs or more have successful careers to date. The 60 percent numbers for the first round and second round and 40 percent for the third come from a study I saw that included 10 years of drafts at the position.

If you've seen better figures than that, please present them.

You stated that and that was not agreed on. You are presenting the old argument from when people were still figuring out what works in the salary cap era. Yes, draft picks are a risk but it has borne out that aging vets are bigger risks. This is a violent sport where careers are short. RB the shortest of all. AP is 30 and you have wishful thinking to go by and that is about it in terms of how he will perform at age 30 in the NFL.

Its obvious that neither of us are going to agree. you are chasing a name; I don't want to pay that much for age. that doesn't mean that nothing can be figured out anyway.

As for the RB bust rate, that includes the time when teams routinely picked 3 or more RB in the first round.

http://www.rantsports.com/blog/2012...translates-from-college-football-to-the-pros/

That has breakdowns by top 10 and overall first round. Teams picking those 4th and 5th RB brought that 70% success rate from the top 10 way down. Teams have adjusted since then and started valuing OL more and RB less. The only reason why we are in the conversation about getting a shot at Gurley and Gordon is because of the paradigm shift.

Those two in particular I don't think you can just discount with a Chiefs fanpost. After that, sure you can be skeptical about Ajayi and Coleman but if we do go that route we still have Williams, Randle, DMC, and Dunbar competing for committee spots.

Plus we don't have to take on his massive contract and dedicate 60% of the cap to the offense and only 1 of 4 very talented young OL locked up.

As I said before, if you want to worry about draft risks then go for it but paying for age is a worse risk by far.

 

[xwalker]

No. Our 35 year old QB with a bad back......whats yours in sync with?

I guess you were happy when Jerry trade two first for Joey Galloway and a 1st and 3rd for Roy Williams before paying him 9M per.

 

[NorthwestDallas40]

Why are fans here even talking about trading pick #1 or #2 in the draft for Adrian Peterson? Not a chance in wherever would a GM do that and still consider themselves competent to make their own breakfast let alone run a team.

Sorry, but only an idiot (IMO) would give up such high pick for a RB, while a good one, that is 30 years old and will cost us some REAL money. Look at this draft, you can get a starter this year for less and one who will be around for longer.

I would not give anything higher than a 4th round pick and only one pick for AP. If we cant do it for that or less, then don't do it period.

People are talking about a #1 (and even a #2) pick as a sure thing. We have been pretty good the last few years with our #1s with Martin and Frederick. But there is a long list of Morris Claibornes, Bobby Carpenters, Felix Jones, Mike Jenkins, Shante Carvers, Ebeneezer Ekubans, David Lefleurs, etc. with this (and every) franchise. AP is a proven commodity and will likely be the best RB in the league for at least a few more seasons. He instantly makes this team a Super Bowl contender. Even if we sacrifice the PROSPECT some future building block by trading a #1 or #2, we have a three-year window with Romo. Isn't a real chance to win the Super Bowl in the those next 3 years worth it?

 

[SilverStarCowboy]

Don't do it Jerry. Somebody remind him of his last three 1st round picks, you wouldn't trade one of them for a 30 year old RB. Sorry Tony.

 

[WillieBeamen]

Let me ask it this way. Would you rather have Gurley and Michael Bennett (DT) in the first two rounds OR
Armstead (DT) and Adrian Peterson? Remember Gurley will be a rookie and he's coming off an ACL injury. I think it's a no brainer.

Gurley and Bennett by far. Both will be on rookie contracts for at least 4 years, so next offseason it will be easier to sign hardy long term.

 

[JoeBoBBY]

I guess you were happy when Jerry trade two first for Joey Galloway and a 1st and 3rd for Roy Williams before paying him 9M per.

of course not. And to be clear. 90% of the time I disagree with this kind of move, simply because the player and situation isn't worth it ..... But I believe AP is worth the risk. I believe the situation dictates we push. Considering the alternative is relying on a rookie .....

And I see AZ, or some other team, coming up to at least a 2..... Maybe I am wrong, Ive been wrong before. And we dont need to come up to a 1 or 2. But if we do, I think we should....

 

[SDCowboy]

So is there any new rumors about him coming here? I haven't really been keeping up with this. lol

 

[ufcrules1]

I guess you were happy when Jerry trade two first for Joey Galloway and a 1st and 3rd for Roy Williams before paying him 9M per.

This is what you and others simply aren't getting. Jerry has made VERY dumb decisions in the past with teams that had no chance of going to the super bowl.
THIS team right now, has a VERY legit chance of making/winning a super bowl. When you are this close, you go out and get that player.

To recap.

1. In the past Jerry overpaid for players when we had a crappy team,
2. This team is completely different. It's only a a couple of players away from a LEGIT super bowl team.
3. Winning a super bowl trumps EVERYTHING.

 

[gimmesix]

As for the RB bust rate, that includes the time when teams routinely picked 3 or more RB in the first round.

http://www.rantsports.com/blog/2012...translates-from-college-football-to-the-pros/

That has breakdowns by top 10 and overall first round. Teams picking those 4th and 5th RB brought that 70% success rate from the top 10 way down. Teams have adjusted since then and started valuing OL more and RB less. The only reason why we are in the conversation about getting a shot at Gurley and Gordon is because of the paradigm shift.

Not sure I'm buying what you are saying. Even the site you've listed shows only 14 out of the 36 RBs listed earned a "yes" grade (several maybes, though), which means it's risky business anyway you look at it ... just like the draft is for any position.

We've discussed recent drafts. We've discussed historical drafts. And they all point to that same thing. It's just the way the draft is. And as I've said, I'm OK with that. You have to deal with it as it is, not as you'd like it to be.

If Gordon or Gurley is there when we pick at 27, I'm fine with us taking them, knowing that there is a fairly high probability that one of them will bust. If one of the second-tier backs is there when we draft, I'm fine if Dallas chooses one of them, knowing that the Cowboys have done their homework AND there still a pretty high probability that one or more of them will bust.

If Dallas wants to trade a third- or fourth-round pick for Peterson, I'm OK with that, knowing that his age and with his wear and tear that there is some degree of probability that he will bust. The only thing I like better about that Peterson route if it becomes available to us is that it allows us to use those top two picks on other positions at a point in the draft when there is a lower probability that they will bust as well.

I do not like at all any route that has us waiting until the third round of the draft or lower to draft a running back because of the higher bust rate at a position where we have a bunch of bodies but none who have proven they can get the job done this year as the lead back. Whoever the new guy is will have questions marks as well, but I do believe if we add either Peterson or a first/second-round back we have a higher probability of finding that lead dog.

We lucked into Murray in the third round, and some seem to take that as proof that we can easily find another one like him then when there is a much higher probability that we won't. People tend to make the exception the rule.

 

[ufcrules1]

So is there any new rumors about him coming here? I haven't really been keeping up with this. lol

Yes, there are rumors about it and the Cowboy's haven't come out and said they aren't interested in him either. I really do think we are going to make a very
strong push to try and get him. It would be idiotic not to.

 

[SDCowboy]

Yes, there are rumors about it and the Cowboy's haven't come out and said they aren't interested in him either. I really do think we are going to make a very
strong push to try and get him. It would be idiotic not to.

Pardon my ignorance haha...so these are new rumors, not just continued rumblings from the rumors from a while ago?

 

[Arkyvarminter]

Peterson is not done. That's why Jerry and other teams are looking at him. I don't think there is much risk of him just being average. He's a driven back and is the best in the league and is out to prove that he still is. I don't think his ability is a question mark. He's still elite and probably will be for at least 2 or 3 more years. He will be a huge addition to whoever gets him. The price you pay for that talent can't be unreasonable though. He's one player even though he's great......

 

[SilverStarCowboy]

Yes, there are rumors about it and the Cowboy's haven't come out and said they aren't interested in him either. I really do think we are going to make a very
strong push to try and get him. It would be idiotic not to.

I think it would be idiotic to give a young Frederick, Martin or Tyron Smith for a 30 year old RB. Carr makes all this possible including the Cap, stay away from our 1st...or 2nd IMhumbleO

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

People are talking about a #1 (and even a #2) pick as a sure thing. We have been pretty good the last few years with our #1s with Martin and Frederick. But there is a long list of Morris Claibornes, Bobby Carpenters, Felix Jones, Mike Jenkins, Shante Carvers, Ebeneezer Ekubans, David Lefleurs, etc. with this (and every) franchise. AP is a proven commodity and will likely be the best RB in the league for at least a few more seasons. He instantly makes this team a Super Bowl contender. Even if we sacrifice the PROSPECT some future building block by trading a #1 or #2, we have a three-year window with Romo. Isn't a real chance to win the Super Bowl in the those next 3 years worth it?

We were in the division playoffs and almost won. We are already a super bowl contender going into the draft. You want to be the Snyderesque frontrunner.

If we give up the high restricted amount for a 30 year old RB, it's going to be Joey Galloway all over again. Giving up premium picks for skill position players doesn't work. That is where you find the worst trades of all time.

 

[Arkyvarminter]

We were in the division playoffs and almost won. We are already a super bowl contender going into the draft. You want to be the Snyderesque frontrunner.

If we give up the high restricted amount for a 30 year old RB, it's going to be Joey Galloway all over again. Giving up premium picks for skill position players doesn't work. That is where you find the worst trades of all time.

We were in the running because we had a 1800 yard back. Now we don't........

 

[gimmesix]

You stated that and that was not agreed on. You are presenting the old argument from when people were still figuring out what works in the salary cap era. Yes, draft picks are a risk but it has borne out that aging vets are bigger risks. This is a violent sport where careers are short. RB the shortest of all. AP is 30 and you have wishful thinking to go by and that is about it in terms of how he will perform at age 30 in the NFL.

Let me say this one thing about Peterson and the "bigger risks" theory. Running backs do have a short lifespan in the NFL, and Peterson could be at the point where he hits the wall, but I do think you have to consider the fact that he hasn't shown himself to be the normal running back.

Emmitt Smith played 11 seasons before he essentially hit the wall (even though he had one more 1,000-yard season). At what point in time was it wishful thinking in terms of how he would perform?

I believe it's wishful thinking to believe that McFadden is going to be a 4.0-plus back after three years under 3.5 because the evidence is against him.

Peterson's numbers indicate that he might be much more like Emmitt than like McFadden. In the sixth year of his career, he had his best season, topping out at 6.0 per carry. Even in his last full year, he averaged 4.5. There's no real indication of decline looking at his career numbers unless you count the one game he played in last year.

There is more reason to believe he would be able to keep up what he's been doing throughout his career rather than suddenly dropping off. Could it happen? Of course. But it seems about as likely as Emmitt dropping off suddenly from the player he had shown himself to be.

There are always some players who defy conventional wisdom.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]