Adrian Peterson wants to break Emmitt Smith's rushing record

[Hoofbite]

A lot of it has to do with longevity and teams willing to put up with average to below average performance well into a RB's twilight years.

Emmitt is a good example of this -- over his last 5 years (2000 - 2004) in the league he averaged:

878 yards rushing
5.6 TDs
3.8 ypc

Pretty terrible numbers for a half of decade.

Peterson will have to find a team that is willing to accept (like the Cardinals did for Emmitt) an aging veteran RB and be in a odd position that they can't field a competent backup.

Good post. Health will be a big thing. AP has missed some games and is probably short 1500 yards of where he should be (if you go just on average touches per game and average yards per carry).

He's gonna need either a long span of consistent production or a couple more 2012 seasons to get in range. If he does it, hats off to him. I like the way he plays and he puts the work in.

At some point the record will be broken. AP is the only one I would say might have a chance but even that is still a long way off.

 

[ghst187]

He can dream, can't he?

i hope he doesn't break it since the moron said "playing in the nfl is like modern-day slavery". That was so offensive to me on so many levels, not the least of which is as a person who works hard for a middle income salary. Someone send AP a clue

 

[Zimmy Lives]

i hope he doesn't break it since the moron said "playing in the nfl is like modern-day slavery". That was so offensive to me on so many levels, not the least of which is as a person who works hard for a middle income salary. Someone send AP a clue

Forgot about that quote from AP. What an idiot considering the only reason he has the lifestyle he lives is because of the NFL. Hopefully, when he retires, he can put that education he earned to good use. If he has one.

 

[Muhast]

If he doesn't get any more major injuries in his career then I'd say he'll end up beating E.Smith's record, though probably around 2018 or 2019. All he has to do is average 1355 yards for the next 7 years and he'll get the record. A.P hasn't shown any signs of slowing down, if anything he's shown signs of improvement over the last year, and that's after a major ACL injury.

This is what he has to do for the next 7 years to get the record -

2013 1700 (28)
2014 1500 (29)
2015 1450 (30)
2016 1450 (31)
2017 1350 (32)
2018 1250 (33)
2019 850 (34)

I think those are very reasonable statistics for A.P to achieve, he has a lot better chance to do it then some of you think, though I understand most here don't wont him to get it because after all it's E.Smith's record.
I personally think he has a very good chance barring injuries. The reason why I think he'll get it is because he will have 2-3 more years around 1700 yards, and those alone will average out his bad years late in his career.

I added his age in parenthesis next to each season to go with your projections.

 

[CATCH17]

I thought if anyone would get it then it would've been Curtis Martin.

He was still playing at a very high level in his early 30's and then he just smacked into that wall and was gone from the game.

 

[Muhast]

IF he doesn't break the record or get close it's due to his carries then, because if he averages 280-300 carries for the next 7 years he will easily break E.Smith's record barring injury. Since 2009 AP's Y/C has increased every year, and he's yet to show signs of diminishing. He's actually done the exact opposite, he's improved every year even after his ACL. Also the fact that he has only "rushed for over 1400 yards only twice in his career" doesn't matter, because all he needs to average is around 1350 per season.

He has rushed for over 1350 3 times in his first 6. You expect him to average that for 7 more years? I think he will likely get around 14,000 yard range. It's not that he can't reach it, it's just very unlikely. We saw Curtis Martin/LT get close, and then hit the wall at 32 or so. If he keeps his production now(which is extremely unlikely) he will be at 16219 yards at age 32. That would be his 11th season in the NFL, and he'd need an additional 2,136 yards still. Staying on the field is the toughest part. Emmitt missed 7 games in his first 10 seasons. AP has missed 9 already through 6 seasons. To even get close to the record he will need to stay on the field more. It's not impossible, it's just very difficult to stay healthy and productive in the NFL.

 

[dstovall5]

I added his age in parenthesis next to each season to go with your projections.

Still doesn't matter, it's about the amount of carries he's had and compared to Emmitt Smith he's had 250 less carries through their first 6 years. Also if AP has 2 more big years (16-1800 yards) then all he needs to do is average a bout 1200 yards for the next 5 yards. For AP that goal is very much in reach, anyone who says differently is most likely saying that due to E.Smith being a Cowboy.

Also AP doesn't need the amount of carries that E.Smith got, because AP has had a significantly higher Y/C then E.Smith did. Also as for LT/Emmitt both of their Y/C declined pretty quickly in their careers while AP has increased each year since 2009. - Facts

 

[big dog cowboy]

At some point the record will be broken.

I'm not convinced of that at all. It's a different game now.

 

[Shunpike]

He can dream all he wants but that record will be one of the records that will stay a very very long time.

 

[BruceWayne]

Records are meant to be broken. Good Luck AP

 

[MichaelWinicki]

No.

He'll burn out before that.

 

[Section446]

If anyone is going to do it, I'd prefer it be a classy guy like Adrian Peterson.

 

[jobberone]

I agree he's likely to burn out or stay healthy. @big dog cowboy brings up a good point not generally mentioned. Teams don't run their RBs as much these days.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Another way of putting this into perspective...

AP needs to get another 9,507 yards in order to break Emmitt's record.

There have only been 29 guys who have rushed for more than 9,507 yards in their careers.

 

[Soth]

That is a long time to be a slave.

Iol

Anyway, he is not going to break it.

 

[SportsGuru80]

Class act, if anyone did I wouldn't be mad if it was AD Peterson!

 

[Aven8]

What I'm not a fan of is the whole "record" talk.

He should be talking about helping Minny win. Not 2500 yds and Emmitt Freakin Smith.

He's a machine. He reminds me of Terrell Davis, with Deion's speed. He won't make it however IMO.

 

[jason54858]

Well if Goodell gets his way and implaments 2 more games. Ya never know.......

 

[AdamJT13]

Lots of people think Emmitt holds the record only because he stuck around a long time to pad his totals. But he is second all-time in rushing yards through age 27 -- just 12 yards behind Barry Sanders.

Peterson, who turned 28 this offseason, ranks only eighth in yards through age 27 -- behind Sanders, Emmitt, Payton, Jim Brown, Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis and LaDainian Tomlinson.

Along with being second all-time in yards through age 27, Emmitt is BY FAR No. 1 in yards after age 27, with 8,195. Nobody else is within even 1,000 yards of him. To break Emmitt's career record, Peterson will not only have to break Emmitt's record for yards after age 27, he'll have to smash it by more than 1,300 yards -- almost 2,400 more than No. 2 all-time.

Good luck with that.

I've said all along, for someone to break Emmitt's record, they'll have to at least come close to (or surpass) Emmitt's production at younger ages, because that's the easier part of it. Peterson hasn't come close to matching Emmitt's production through age 27 (he's 1,311 yards behind), which will make breaking his career record virtually impossible.

 

[Zordon]

AD could actually do it. The guy's amazing.
That said, I think, when he hits the wall, he's going to hit it really hard. Tough to say when that is, though, given how he played last year. I don't remember seeing anything like it from a RB, honestly.

The kid has the determination and will to break thru that wall. I see him breaking it. If he does, I hope it happens in Dallas.

Lots of people think Emmitt holds the record only because he stuck around a long time to pad his totals. But he is second all-time in rushing yards through age 27 -- just 12 yards behind Barry Sanders.

Peterson, who turned 28 this offseason, ranks only eighth in yards through age 27 -- behind Sanders, Emmitt, Payton, Jim Brown, Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis and LaDainian Tomlinson.

Along with being second all-time in yards through age 27, Emmitt is BY FAR No. 1 in yards after age 27, with 8,195. Nobody else is within even 1,000 yards of him. To break Emmitt's career record, Peterson will not only have to break Emmitt's record for yards after age 27, he'll have to smash it by more than 1,300 yards -- almost 2,400 more than No. 2 all-time.

Good luck with that.

I've said all along, for someone to break Emmitt's record, they'll have to at least come close to (or surpass) Emmitt's production at younger ages, because that's the easier part of it. Peterson hasn't come close to matching Emmitt's production through age 27 (he's 1,311 yards behind), which will make breaking his career record virtually impossible.

Wow welcome back.