Breaking down the College Football Playoffs

[DFWJC]

I don't see OSU leap frogging TCU but I have no doubt Alabama will, so TCU's eye will be on seeing how far Mississippi State drops (not to mention those pesky Bears who beat TCU earlier in the season). I do not like TCU's chances of remaining in the top-4 this week but we'll see.

Don't know about you but I can't imagine them dropping Miss St out of the top 4.
I think TCU and Baylor will be 5 and 6 in some order.

 

[jimmy40]

TCU really really screwed up playing crappy against Kansas.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

so as of today FSU hasn't beaten a ranked team?

Nope. Might as well put Marshall in the top 5.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

so as of today FSU hasn't beaten a ranked team?

Just looking at the top 7 teams (all the 1 loss or fewer teams) and the AP rankings at the moment:

Alabama: #8 Ole Miss (loss), #4 Mississippi State (win)

Oregon: #10 Michigan State (win), #15 Arizona (loss), #11 UCLA (win), #20 Utah (win)

Mississippi State: #16 Auburn (win), #2 Alabama (loss)

TCU: #23 Oklahoma (win), #6 Baylor (loss), #12 Kansas State (win)

Baylor: #5 TCU (win), #23 Oklahoma (win)

Ohio State: #10 Michigan State (win)

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Oregon's record is starting to look very impressive. They usually catch a lot of slack for playing a "weak" schedule compared to the SEC teams. It looks to me like they played one heck of a schedule. They played 4 ranked teams (compared to 3 for TCU, 2 for Alabama, Mississippi State and Baylor, 1 for Ohio State, and 0 for Florida State) with a 3-1 record. Sure, the ranked teams they played range from #10 to #20 in the nation, whereas Alabama has played two top 8 teams (with a 1-1 record).

After that, TCU has played the next most ranked teams, but Baylor will match them in two weeks when they play Kansas State. If Baylor manages to beat Kansas State, it would be hard to keep TCU ahead of Baylor in the polls. Baylor will be 3-0 against ranked teams (vs 2-1 for TCU) and Baylor would have beaten TCU straight up.

Mississippi State and Alabama will both have played 3 (currently) ranked teams when the season ends. Mississippi State plays Ole Miss and Alabama plays Auburn. They're both 1-1 against ranked. If they both win, you'd have to give Alabama the nod for beating Mississippi State.

Ohio State plays no more ranked teams. Neither does Oregon. So it'll be 4 for Oregon, 3 for the SEC and Big 12 teams, 1 for Ohio State and 0 for Florida State. But things will probably change by season's end.

 

[viman96]

Oregon will have 1 more ranked team when they play the Pac12 Conference Championship game.

Florida State should have 1 more ranked team in the ACC Conference Championship game.

Ohio State or Mich State will have 1 more ranked team in the Big 10 Conference Championship game.

Georgia is the only ranked team in the SEC East and they are currently in 2nd place behind Missouri. They need Missouri to lose at Tenn or against Ark. If Missouri wins out and place in the SEC Conference Championship game then it will not be much help to Alabama or Miss State.

 

[joseephuss]

Florida State should have 1 more ranked team in the ACC Conference Championship game.

.

Maybe and if their opponent is ranked it will be a very low ranking. Georgia Tech and Duke are both ranked pretty low right now.

 

[jterrell]

Don't know about you but I can't imagine them dropping Miss St out of the top 4.
I think TCU and Baylor will be 5 and 6 in some order.

That is almost certainly correct.
But it isn't a big deal because Miss St and Bama both have tough games ahead.
Win and they'd leap frog someone anyways, lose and they fall out.

Because the SEC is overrated they'll get an extra loss to play with but those teams play each other enough that 1 loss isn't much rope.
Every conference scavenges its own.
The conf champs will be the ones smiling at the end provided they get through without any more losses.
And that may mean TWO big 12 schools.

 

[jterrell]

Maybe and if their opponent is ranked it will be a very low ranking. Georgia Tech and Duke are both ranked pretty low right now.

Duke won't be ranked next update, losses to two unranked teams: Miami and VaTech only one ranked win, newly ranked Georgia Tech. GT should be but it'll likely eat a 30 point loss to Georgia and get bumped out before the ACC CG.
Stylistically, trying to run triple option versus Georgia is a recipe for disaster.

Clemson is the 2nd best ACC team but that's only with Watson at QB. They went from completely in control of that game to a pick 6 in a matter of 2 plays.

 

[viman96]

Anyone know if the committee cares where teams are ranked based on when the game was played or ultimately where teams are ranked at the end of the regular season?

 

[Future]

Anyone know if the committee cares where teams are ranked based on when the game was played or ultimately where teams are ranked at the end of the regular season?

I'd imagine that it would be where they are ranked at the end, unless they take injuries into consideration. It'd be pretty tough to say that FSU has a top 10 win, considering that was against Notre Dame.

 

[jterrell]

Anyone know if the committee cares where teams are ranked based on when the game was played or ultimately where teams are ranked at the end of the regular season?

only care about current rankings not when played.

 

[jterrell]

I think the top 7 later tonight will be:
1. Bama --best win with reasonable loss
2. Oregon --best overall schedule of 1 loss teams
3. FSU --undefeated but win ugly versus softer than expected sched
4. MissSt --recent but forgivable loss, questionable schedule
5. TCU --Don't think ugly versus Kansas hurts too bad because it was a one week blip not a regular late escape versus baddies.
6. Baylor --Slightly less dynamic than TCU even with the win. Needs style points to close.
7. OSU --Big win over MichSt helps but late escape over Penn ST and worst loss of 1 loss contenders.

At this point these are the true contenders. Win out and they have a very real chance to get in.
A loss knocks them to the side and they gotta hope for chaos.

 

[atlantacowboy]

Just looking at the top 7 teams (all the 1 loss or fewer teams) and the AP rankings at the moment:

Alabama: #8 Ole Miss (loss), #4 Mississippi State (win)

Oregon: #10 Michigan State (win), #15 Arizona (loss), #11 UCLA (win), #20 Utah (win)

Mississippi State: #16 Auburn (win), #2 Alabama (loss)

TCU: #23 Oklahoma (win), #6 Baylor (loss), #12 Kansas State (win)

Baylor: #5 TCU (win), #23 Oklahoma (win)

Ohio State: #10 Michigan State (win)

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Oregon's record is starting to look very impressive. They usually catch a lot of slack for playing a "weak" schedule compared to the SEC teams. It looks to me like they played one heck of a schedule. They played 4 ranked teams (compared to 3 for TCU, 2 for Alabama, Mississippi State and Baylor, 1 for Ohio State, and 0 for Florida State) with a 3-1 record. Sure, the ranked teams they played range from #10 to #20 in the nation, whereas Alabama has played two top 8 teams (with a 1-1 record).

After that, TCU has played the next most ranked teams, but Baylor will match them in two weeks when they play Kansas State. If Baylor manages to beat Kansas State, it would be hard to keep TCU ahead of Baylor in the polls. Baylor will be 3-0 against ranked teams (vs 2-1 for TCU) and Baylor would have beaten TCU straight up.

Mississippi State and Alabama will both have played 3 (currently) ranked teams when the season ends. Mississippi State plays Ole Miss and Alabama plays Auburn. They're both 1-1 against ranked. If they both win, you'd have to give Alabama the nod for beating Mississippi State.

Ohio State plays no more ranked teams. Neither does Oregon. So it'll be 4 for Oregon, 3 for the SEC and Big 12 teams, 1 for Ohio State and 0 for Florida State. But things will probably change by season's end.

Not all victories against "ranked" schools are equal. Bama's win over an undefeated #1 pretty much trumps anything Oregon and TCU have done. Also, you count the ranking of the schools when they played not from the most recent poll. So, MSU has a win over LSU when they were ranked.

The new playoff poll should look like:

1. FSU
2. Bama
3. Oregon
4. MSU
5. Baylor
6. TCU

I think Ole Miss will finish off MSU and we'll get a big 12 team in the playoff.

 

[jterrell]

1

Alabama 9-1
2

Oregon 9-1
3

Florida State 10-0
4

Mississippi State 9-1
5

TCU 9-1
6

Ohio State 9-1
7

Baylor 8-1
8

Mississippi 8-2
9

UCLA 8-2
10

Georgia 8-2

 

[jterrell]

light week of compelling games
big deep breath week for most teams before the final push.

19 USC vs 9 UCLA at the Rose Bowl 7:00 PM Saturday.

15 Arizona at 17 Utah 2:30 Saturday

Tonight KST in Morgantown vs WVA but both teams recent losses have dulled this one a bit.
Still not bad for a Thursday night offering. For Baylor and TCU might be better if WVA wins and moves back into the CFB top 25.

 

[RonSpringsdaman20]

http://espn.go.com/college-football...ohn-swofford-8-teams-college-football-playoff

 

[viman96]

http://espn.go.com/college-football...ohn-swofford-8-teams-college-football-playoff

Sorry but this complete crap. Why is not an issue for the lower level college football teams to play a 64 playoff tournament? Or Basketball teams to play 64 team tournaments? Baseball has the College World Series.

They need to admit is just about money and they have not come up with away they all can agree to.

"I expect an 8-team playoff increasingly to be a topic of conversation, but each FBS conference would want to take the temperature of its membership on something as significant as this," American commissioner Mike Aresco told ESPN. "There are real concerns such as the academic calendar and the increased demands on our student-athletes. The details of an 8-team playoff also would be a major issue."

 

[RonSpringsdaman20]

Sorry but this complete crap. Why is not an issue for the lower level college football teams to play a 64 playoff tournament? Or Basketball teams to play 64 team tournaments? Baseball has the College World Series.

They need to admit is just about money and they have not come up with away they all can agree to.

absolutely its money..... especially from the bowl side. There's like 35 bowl games... that's a lot of sponsors that become less relevant as the playoff expands.. not to mention the tv and university profits.

 

[jterrell]

absolutely its money..... especially from the bowl side. There's like 35 bowl games... that's a lot of sponsors that become less relevant as the playoff expands.. not to mention the tv and university profits.

YUP!

There is MORE money in the playoffs than Bowls but ....
But those Bowl sponsors have a lot of free swag and money that gets into friendly hands.

8 teams was always the right starting point with 16 probably being the right long term number but it will take time to fight the old man system and overall corruption.

Bowl sponsors are not very smart. They should realize a Quarterfinal game between Arizona and Alabama is gonna draw more attention and eyeballs then a full week with Utah versus Nebraska in some 3rd place game with no meaningful outcome except winner stays ranked.

 

[DFWJC]

YUP!

There is MORE money in the playoffs than Bowls but ....
But those Bowl sponsors have a lot of free swag and money that gets into friendly hands.

8 teams was always the right starting point with 16 probably being the right long term number but it will take time to fight the old man system and overall corruption.

Bowl sponsors are not very smart. They should realize a Quarterfinal game between Arizona and Alabama is gonna draw more attention and eyeballs then a full week with Utah versus Nebraska in some 3rd place game with no meaningful outcome except winner stays ranked.

16 really does need to be the cap. Even that's a bit much. 4 more weeks of games vs top competition for these kids would be physically brutal.
Maybe if they removed conf champ games, reduced the regular season back to 11 games, and seeded all 16 teams, then maybe a 4 week playoff would make sense.

I saw someone trying to compare baseball and basketball to football.
They may want to take into account you can't play anywhere from 2-4 football games in one week.