Breaking down the College Football Playoffs

[viman96]

I think part of the problem is in conference schedule...
most SEC teams don't play anyone outside of conference.... but they play a quality game in conference almost every game...
not to mention the hype put into them by espn, who has a lot invested in them... (TV deal is massive)

but don't get me wrong, the SEC teams are very good.... PAC-10 also has had a very strong year....

IMO the Power 5 conferences need to allow for more out of conference play. Simple as that. I personally do not care for the neutral field games. Everyone should accept home/away games with the other conferences.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

I'm curious what would happen if the "weak" division winner of the power conferences won the conference championships. Let's look at each conference:

SEC: Everyone thinks it will come down to the winner of the West, which will likely be determined this week with Miss St vs Bama. The winner will likely win out and destroy the East champion in the conference title game. Then there are questions about what would happen if Bama wins out and wins the SEC but Miss St finishes with 1 loss. Would both teams make the playoffs? Well, my question is, what would happen if the team from the East won the SEC? Let's say Bama beats Miss St, then Missouri beats Bama in the title game. Who would make the playoffs with a 2-loss SEC Champion Missouri, a 2-loss Bama, and a 1-loss Miss St?

Pac-12: This conference seems a little more clear cut. The two best teams are Oregon (North) and Arizona St (South). They'll most likely play in the Pac-12 Championship and the winner will make the playoffs.

Big 12: There's no Big 12 Championship. I think that's a mistake. This year is a perfect example. We'll probably have two 1-loss teams, TCU and Baylor, and TCU's only loss would have come from Baylor, but TCU will probably make the playoffs since they've been ahead in all polls. Not really fair to Baylor.

Big Ten: Another clear cut division. The two best teams are Ohio St (East) and Nebraska (West). However, I think the Big Ten will be the power conference that gets left out. I can see Ohio St possibly making the playoffs if a few teams lose, but I don't see Nebraska making it in any circumstances.

ACC: This is an interesting conference. It's been all FSU all year long. The conference does have a few decent teams (Clemson and Duke) but no real powerhouses. It'll be interesting to see what would happen if Duke beat FSU in the conference championship. I know what would happen. No ACC team would be in the playoffs. It'll be Pac-12, Big 12 and probably two SEC teams.

 

[Rogah]

I'm curious what would happen if the "weak" division winner of the power conferences won the conference championships.

I am very curious about that exact same thing. Might not happen this year but it will happen eventually.

SEC: Everyone thinks it will come down to the winner of the West, which will likely be determined this week with Miss St vs Bama. The winner will likely win out and destroy the East champion in the conference title game. Then there are questions about what would happen if Bama wins out and wins the SEC but Miss St finishes with 1 loss. Would both teams make the playoffs? Well, my question is, what would happen if the team from the East won the SEC? Let's say Bama beats Miss St, then Missouri beats Bama in the title game. Who would make the playoffs with a 2-loss SEC Champion Missouri, a 2-loss Bama, and a 1-loss Miss St?

I think UGA will probably win the east and they certainly stand a darn decent chance of beating Alabama or MSU.

ACC: This is an interesting conference. It's been all FSU all year long. The conference does have a few decent teams (Clemson and Duke) but no real powerhouses. It'll be interesting to see what would happen if Duke beat FSU in the conference championship. I know what would happen. No ACC team would be in the playoffs. It'll be Pac-12, Big 12 and probably two SEC teams.

I think the tournament committee would love this. I think they view FSU as a thorn in their side. They can't keep an undefeated FSU out but they also certainly don't seem to respect them too much. If FSU falls (either in the regular season of conference champsinship), no one would feel bad for the ACC and no one outside Tallahassee would complain if 1-loss FSU was left out.

 

[DFWJC]

I proposed in another post, an 8 team playoff, with 5 power champs, the highest ranked non-power team, and two wildcards.

Sounds better than what we have.

I know it's not basketball, where it's easy to have a big tourney because you can play twice the number of game (or more) in the same amount of time.
4 teams always seemed too small, but it was better than two decided by some poll/computer model.
It just seems that almost every year there's been a decent argument for between 3-8 teams having a crack at it.

I also mentioned the conf champs being included. But there are some glaring issues there too.
Not all conferences have to play that one extra game for a conf championship--an added game above and beyond vs what would most likely be one of the best teams in the country. That's very unfair.
Also, in conferences where they have a champ game; what if in the conf. champ game the representative on one side is undefeated and ends up facing a 3 loss team from an much weaker side of the conference (maybe even a team they already blew out). Somehow, the clear number one team all year in the country loses in a wild upset. Then, this 30th ranked, 3 loss team who pulled one upset gets go to the final 8. That could never happen in a conf without a conf champ game of course.

Oh well. It'll never be perfect.

 

[DFWJC]

I'm curious what would happen if the "weak" division winner of the power conferences won the conference championships. Let's look at each conference:

SEC: Everyone thinks it will come down to the winner of the West, which will likely be determined this week with Miss St vs Bama. The winner will likely win out and destroy the East champion in the conference title game. Then there are questions about what would happen if Bama wins out and wins the SEC but Miss St finishes with 1 loss. Would both teams make the playoffs? Well, my question is, what would happen if the team from the East won the SEC? Let's say Bama beats Miss St, then Missouri beats Bama in the title game. Who would make the playoffs with a 2-loss SEC Champion Missouri, a 2-loss Bama, and a 1-loss Miss St?

Pac-12: This conference seems a little more clear cut. The two best teams are Oregon (North) and Arizona St (South). They'll most likely play in the Pac-12 Championship and the winner will make the playoffs.

Big 12: There's no Big 12 Championship. I think that's a mistake. This year is a perfect example. We'll probably have two 1-loss teams, TCU and Baylor, and TCU's only loss would have come from Baylor, but TCU will probably make the playoffs since they've been ahead in all polls. Not really fair to Baylor.

Big Ten: Another clear cut division. The two best teams are Ohio St (East) and Nebraska (West). However, I think the Big Ten will be the power conference that gets left out. I can see Ohio St possibly making the playoffs if a few teams lose, but I don't see Nebraska making it in any circumstances.

ACC: This is an interesting conference. It's been all FSU all year long. The conference does have a few decent teams (Clemson and Duke) but no real powerhouses. It'll be interesting to see what would happen if Duke beat FSU in the conference championship. I know what would happen. No ACC team would be in the playoffs. It'll be Pac-12, Big 12 and probably two SEC teams.

Beat me to it. I was just asking that question before I read your post.

BTW. No way is it remotely a given that the SEC West team will beat the weaker SEC East team in a one game scenario.

 

[RonSpringsdaman20]

I am very curious about that exact same thing. Might not happen this year but it will happen eventually.
I think UGA will probably win the east and they certainly stand a darn decent chance of beating Alabama or MSU.
I think the tournament committee would love this. I think they view FSU as a thorn in their side. They can't keep an undefeated FSU out but they also certainly don't seem to respect them too much. If FSU falls (either in the regular season of conference champsinship), no one would feel bad for the ACC and no one outside Tallahassee would complain if 1-loss FSU was left out.

Sounds better than what we have.

I know it's not basketball, where it's easy to have a big tourney because you can play twice the number of game (or more) in the same amount of time.
4 teams always seemed too small, but it was better than two decided by some poll/computer model.
It just seems that almost every year there's been a decent argument for between 3-8 teams having a crack at it.

I also mentioned the conf champs being included. But there are some glaring issues there too.
Not all conferences have to play that one extra game for a conf championship--an added game above and beyond vs what would most likely be one of the best teams in the country. That's very unfair.
Also, in conferences where they have a champ game; what if in the conf. champ game the representative on one side is undefeated and ends up facing a 3 loss team from an much weaker side of the conference (maybe even a team they already blew out). Somehow, the clear number one team all year in the country loses in a wild upset. Then, this 30th ranked, 3 loss team who pulled one upset gets go to the final 8. That could never happen in a conf without a conf champ game of course.

Oh well. It'll never be perfect.

yeh...... its not.... It is a good next step in expansion, 8 games that is. (wouldn't be surprised if we see 6 with two buys first)
as far as losing in the conference championship... thats what single elimination playoff games do.... you have to be on top of your game in the big games.... only thing fair is winning....
and if there is 8 playoff spots... you still have a chance at redemptions...
hoping the playoffs yields upsets in the future!!!!

 

[jterrell]

Honest question here....and I know it may not be popular:
how do we really know how good TCU and Baylor are?

There have been some decent losses by various conf teams (if you can give them credit at all) but the best win between TCU and Baylor outside of conference is one early season win vs Minnesota.

I am NOT saying they are for sure not real good. I'm just asking an honest question.
How do we really know. What if the Big 12's best team is really only a top 20 level team and not a top 5?

This is why someday a 8 team playoff will be nice. 5 conf champs and 3 at large and here we go. Prove it ACC. Prove it Big 12. prove it...etc.

Same way we know with any team.
It's an accumulation of who you've beaten and how you looked doing it.

IIRC...
TCU beat KState by 3 times what Auburn did. Beat OSU by 5 or 6 times what FSU did.
Beat WVA by 9 less than BAMA.

Baylor had a meaningless non-conf and has taken heat for it but they've got far more impressive victories than FSU.
They've beaten TCU and handed OU it's worst home loss in over a decade.
FSU's best win was a home win over a 2 loss ND.

And it helps that TCU/Baylor both have a margin of victory of about 30 points per game.
They are playing back ups almost every week by halftime.

 

[jterrell]

I wonder what would happen if Miss St. loses to Alabama, and they both win out from there. Alabama is SEC champ and seeded at #2-#3 and MSU has one loss to a top 4 team. Do they get shut out? I suppose it would depend on how badly they lost. There's no doubt that a LOT of debate would take place.

If Bama beats Miss ST but both win out you'll almost certainly see two SEC teams.
FSU if it wins out gets in but perhaps as a lower than expected seed.
Oregon if it wins out gets in.

TCU and Baylor would be next up in this scenario.

Chances are good two or more teams from above lose tho.
The Big 12 non having a championship game is actually a boon because co-conf champs with 1 loss of that conf are gonna get strong consideration.

4 teams is getting us close to it being decided on the field. 8 or 12 would be even better but this is a heck of a lot better than just two teams.

 

[DFWJC]

Same way we know with any team.
It's an accumulation of who you've beaten and how you looked doing it.

IIRC...
TCU beat KState by 3 times what Auburn did. Beat OSU by 5 or 6 times what FSU did.
Beat WVA by 9 less than BAMA.

Baylor had a meaningless non-conf and has taken heat for it but they've got far more impressive victories than FSU.
They've beaten TCU and handed OU it's worst home loss in over a decade.
FSU's best win was a home win over a 2 loss ND.

And it helps that TCU/Baylor both have a margin of victory of about 30 points per game.
They are playing back ups almost every week by halftime.

It was al in theory and an argument for a playoff. I think Baylor and TCU are just fine.

What if the Big12''s best team was really only about the 20th best team--and they have no wins outside of conference to refute that.
Losing a game by a better score early in the season is not very meaningful. Better than getting blown out though.

I don't like ND all that much, but they were ranked #5 when FSU beat them and it was out of conference.
The comparable would be TCU's win over a 20th ranked Minnesota.

OU sucks, so beating them means very little.

In the end. I do think Baylor and TCU are very good. The point was without an outside conf resume, it's very hard to know for sure for any of these teams.

 

[jterrell]

It was al in theory and an argument for a playoff. I think Baylor and TCU are just fine.

What if the Big12''s best team was really only about the 20th best team--and they have no wins outside of conference to refute that.
Losing a game by a better score early in the season is not very meaningful. Better than getting blown out though.

I don't like ND all that much, but they were ranked #5 when FSU beat them and it was out of conference.
The comparable would be TCU's win over a 20th ranked Minnesota.

OU sucks, so beating them means very little.

In the end. I do think Baylor and TCU are very good. The point was without an outside conf resume, it's very hard to know for sure for any of these teams.

OU doesn't suck; they just aren't great. They have beaten an SEC team by 20+. And they handed the other 2 non-conf teams they've played bad losses.
La Tech is pretty good for a regional opponent having only lost to OU and Auburn.
If OU was in the ACC they'd EASILY be the 2nd best team.
They are about as good as Notre Dame.

It isn't that hard really to compare this late in the year.

And yes, games versus common opponents is the best way to judge that.
Same as you do between teams in the same conference.

Notre Dame isn't more than moderately good. They have zero wins over ranked teams and scraped by Navy.
It is very possible they take two more losses to close the regular season.

But FSU versus ND wasn't really non-conf. It was part of the conf agreement.
Once you wash away nonsensical rankings that existed the first month you can see how teams stack up.

The ACC is just awful, awful and shouldn't be considered P5.

 

[DFWJC]

OU doesn't suck; they just aren't great. They have beaten an SEC team by 20+. And they handed the other 2 non-conf teams they've played bad losses.
La Tech is pretty good for a regional opponent having only lost to OU and Auburn.
If OU was in the ACC they'd EASILY be the 2nd best team.
They are about as good as Notre Dame.

It isn't that hard really to compare this late in the year.

And yes, games versus common opponents is the best way to judge that.
Same as you do between teams in the same conference.

Notre Dame isn't more than moderately good. They have zero wins over ranked teams and scraped by Navy.
It is very possible they take two more losses to close the regular season.

But FSU versus ND wasn't really non-conf. It was part of the conf agreement.
Once you wash away nonsensical rankings that existed the first month you can see how teams stack up.

The ACC is just awful, awful and shouldn't be considered P5.

I don't know where OU would be in the ACC--I guess we could speculate--but you are right that I was exaggerating how bad they are.
I just like giving OU fans a hard time every so often.
Really, that win vs Tennessee looks pretty good right now. The Vols are only 4-5, but 4 losses were to ranked teams and the other was by 1 to Florida....so they aren't terrible for sure.

As for your rant against the ACC. That is a long standing thing dating back to or before when you were sure Florida State and Clemson would be happy to leave that inferior conference for the Big 12.
Wrong...
And that Florida State was just living on the old glory days and ACC would never win a national title.
Wrong Again.

For all we know, you could line up the Big 12 and ACC from team 1-10 and the ACC may win 4-6 of those games.

The College Football Playoff poll currently has 4 ACC teams and 3 Big 12 teams.
if the Big 12 is better, it is by the huge amount that you seem to think it is.

 

[RonSpringsdaman20]

I don't know where OU would be in the ACC--I guess we could speculate--but you are right that I was exaggerating how bad they are.
I just like giving OU fans a hard time every so often.
Really, that win vs Tennessee looks pretty good right now. The Vols are only 4-5, but 4 losses were to ranked teams and the other was by 1 to Florida....so they aren't terrible for sure.

As for your rant against the ACC. That is a long standing thing dating back to or before when you were sure Florida State and Clemson would be happy to leave that inferior conference for the Big 12.
Wrong...
And that Florida State was just living on the old glory days and ACC would never win a national title.
Wrong Again.

For all we know, you could line up the Big 12 and ACC from team 1-10 and the ACC may win 4-6 of those games.

The College Football Playoff poll currently has 4 ACC teams and 3 Big 12 teams.
if the Big 12 is better, it is by the huge amount that you seem to think it is.

Duke vs Texas A&M , Clemson vs OSU, and FSU vs Auburn were great games during the bowl season last year... match up of big conferences...
ACC won 2 of those games.

 

[Rogah]

The College Football Playoff poll currently has 4 ACC teams and 3 Big 12 teams.
if the Big 12 is better, it is by the huge amount that you seem to think it is.

True statement but very misleading. Big-12 has #'s 4, 7 and 13. ACC has #'s 2, 19, 21, 22 (and one of those will be gone by Tuesday). Even the playoff committee knows how bad the ACC is. Think about it: It's mid-November, and the ACC's 1-loss team (Duke) isn't even in the top-20.

Beyond FSU, the ACC is a joke in football. Great at basketball, but get back to me in March if you want to talk basketball.

 

[RonSpringsdaman20]

True statement but very misleading. Big-12 has #'s 4, 7 and 13. ACC has #'s 2, 19, 21, 22 (and one of those will be gone by Tuesday). Even the playoff committee knows how bad the ACC is. Think about it: It's mid-November, and the ACC's 1-loss team (Duke) isn't even in the top-20.

Beyond FSU, the ACC is a joke in football. Great at basketball, but get back to me in March if you want to talk basketball.

Why wait until March? CBB starts this weekend!!!

 

[DFWJC]

True statement but very misleading. Big-12 has #'s 4, 7 and 13. ACC has #'s 2, 19, 21, 22 (and one of those will be gone by Tuesday). Even the playoff committee knows how bad the ACC is. Think about it: It's mid-November, and the ACC's 1-loss team (Duke) isn't even in the top-20.

Beyond FSU, the ACC is a joke in football. Great at basketball, but get back to me in March if you want to talk basketball.

Definitely better in hoops by far.

But programs like Florida State, Clemson, Miami, G tech, V Tech, and few others are not a "joke". Even Louisville is not too bad. They've all had their moments. In fact, 4 of them have won national championships in football in the last 25 years or so. There's maybe 7-8 titles among the group since the 80s.

I have no idea how Duke got as good as they are. Duke is #21 because they've only beaten one decent team. Their OOC schedule looks like Baylor's. Their 41-3 OOC win was against a Big 12 school..which isn't saying much. lol just kidding on that one. We know KU is not good, even if they did beat another Big 12 team (Iowa St) by 3 TDs. They both are bad.

 

[RonSpringsdaman20]

Definitely better in hoops by far.

But programs like Florida State, Clemson, G tech, V Tech, and few others are not a "joke". Even Louisville is not too bad.

I have no idea how Duke got as good as they are. Duke is #21 because they've only beaten one decent team. Their OOC schedule looks like Baylor's. Their 41-3 OOC win was against a Big 12 school..which isn't saying much. lol just kidding on that one. We know KU is not good, even if they did beat another Big 12 team (Iowa St) by 3 TDs. They both are bad.

Another key, Clemson, Vtech, Miami, Louisville, & FSU are all recruiting well, Clemson and FSU extremely well.... both top ten teams last year... what makes anyone think that Clemson won't be back in the top 10 next year? The Frosh QB that Clemson has Deshaun Watson looked really good before losing his season to a broken finger, Miami has a freshman QB as well.... FSU, & Clemson will be good next year, contending good possibly..... Louisville and Miami have young QB's will be better.... And I have no doubt VTech will be good again...
It's a cycle... call them terrible this year, call them great in two year... watch and see...

 

[Rogah]

Definitely better in hoops by far.

But programs like Florida State, Clemson, Miami, G tech, V Tech, and few others are not a "joke". Even Louisville is not too bad. They've all had their moments. In fact, 4 of them have won national championships in football in the last 25 years or so. There's maybe 7-8 titles among the group since the 80s.

If you have to go back 25 years to make your point, then really all your doing is making mine. The ACC is too top-heavy of a conference in football. Once you get past the Seminoles and the Wolfpack (), they're just not that good. Yes the Hurricanes were a dynasty but those days are long gone and have no indication they're coming back anytime soon.

I have no idea how Duke got as good as they are. Duke is #21 because they've only beaten one decent team. Their OOC schedule looks like Baylor's. Their 41-3 OOC win was against a Big 12 school..which isn't saying much. lol just kidding on that one. We know KU is not good, even if they did beat another Big 12 team (Iowa St) by 3 TDs. They both are bad.

Duke has good coaching, and they've done very well with a team used to winning 1 game per season. But I'd take the average Mountain West school over the average ACC school.

 

[joseephuss]

It just seems that almost every year there's been a decent argument for between 3-8 teams having a crack at it.

I don't agree. In most years the are decent arguments for 3 or 4 teams to have a crack at it. In a few years that number will jump to 5 and maybe even 6. I don't think I've ever seen a season where anyone truly thought that teams ranked 7th or lower had a legitimate chance of being the best team in the country. And with that being said, I am not opposed to an 8 team playoff.

 

[Rogah]

I don't agree. In most years the are decent arguments for 3 or 4 teams to have a crack at it. In a few years that number will jump to 5 and maybe even 6. I don't think I've ever seen a season where anyone truly thought that teams ranked 7th or lower had a legitimate chance of being the best team in the country. And with that being said, I am not opposed to an 8 team playoff.

That's what I want too. I would like to see automatic selections for the 5 major conference champs and highest ranked "other 5" conferences (maybe set up a minimum standard where they have to be in, say, the top-10). Set up some sort of "Notre Dame" rule where they Irish are in if ranked in the top 5, then dish out a wild card or two.

 

[jterrell]

Duke vs Texas A&M , Clemson vs OSU, and FSU vs Auburn were great games during the bowl season last year... match up of big conferences...
ACC won 2 of those games.

That was last year. Clemson, Duke and FSU were all better last year then this but remain the top 3 teams BY FAR. --tho Miami is improving.
That is the issue. It is a very large conference without many compelling games.

FSU was the best team in the country last year. They ran through a weak ACC like it was playing Div II schools.
This year FSU has struggled mightily against ACC teams that have lost to non P5 teams and sit at or below .500 on the year.

The ACC issue is the number of teams that are not even top 50.

The Big 12 made a play at one point for FSU and Clemson. If it had gotten those 2 schools there wouldn't be a P5 moniker.